Pre-Game Talk: The All Purpose Off Day Thread | Drama Llama

[Peat]

Agree that there’s not a lot of offense in WBS, but we have some guys will more offensive skill than Wilson...Johnson, TDP, Militec, Haggerty who had a very good raining camp...come on, if that retread is your answer to help the bottom 6, then might as well give up on the season...

But its not about high offence players. That's my point. Don't conflate the issues.

And honestly, even allowing for different leagues, different roles, and the fact that Wilson's already proven an NHL dud when it comes to scoring, I wouldn't be so confident that the guys who are stuck behind Wilson in the WBS scoring charts are going to provide more. I'd like to think that at least one would, but all of them... eh.

 

[USMC607]

The alleged story is he wanted to be closer to family and friends in Southern Ontario as in a shortish drive. That left 2 teams and Toronto probably wouldn’t have been interested or able too take him. That left Buffalo and they had some decent young guys got better depth and with Skinner became a competitive team.

Incoming Salty comment.

f*** him then.. it's not like pgh isnt like 3 hrs from Buffalo. It's not THAT much further of a drive.

However hindsight now I guess he made the right choice as we are shitting our pants.

 

[Tom Hanks]

Incoming Salty comment.

**** him then.. it's not like pgh isnt like 3 hrs from Buffalo. It's not THAT much further of a drive.

However hindsight now I guess he made the right choice as we are ****ting our pants.

It turns into a 5 hour drive instead of 2 or less depending where everyone is.

 

[Ogrezilla]

5 points out at this point in time is basically a 30% chance to make it.

even with 2 games in hand? I mean, we're like one good week from a playoff spot.

 

[Gurglesons]

even with 2 games in hand? I mean, we're like one good week from a playoff spot.

We only have 1 game on hand with Carolina.

 

[KIRK]

We only have 1 game on hand with Carolina.

And we have none on the Islanders who are 3 points ahead.

 

[Ogrezilla]

We only have 1 game on hand with Carolina.

and we're one less point behind them. I don't know how that 30% is calculated or anything, but it seems awfully low. Like I said, assuming we make a change to get better. We still have an awful lot of season left. Play even with them and win the series against them and we're in.

I just think it's way too early for odds like that to mean much of anything.

 

[KIRK]

Columbus
at Winnipeg
at Colorado
Philadelphia
Colorado

That's the Penguins schedule between now and December 5.

Who thinks the Pens are going to be closer to a playoff spot when they wake up on December 5?

Who thinks the Pens are going to be further?

I'm afraid that it's going to be the latter. I'd guess generously 6-7 points, but perhaps-- perhaps even likely-- more.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Columbus
at Winnipeg
at Colorado
Philadelphia
Colorado

That's the Penguins schedule between now and December 5.

Who thinks the Pens are going to be closer to a playoff spot when they wake up on December 5?

Who thinks the Pens are going to be further?

I'm afraid that it's going to be the latter. I'd guess generously 6-7 points, but perhaps-- perhaps even likely-- more.

I'm going closer.

 

[Sideline]

Columbus
at Winnipeg
at Colorado
Philadelphia
Colorado

That's the Penguins schedule between now and December 5.

Who thinks the Pens are going to be closer to a playoff spot when they wake up on December 5?

Who thinks the Pens are going to be further?

I'm afraid that it's going to be the latter. I'd guess generously 6-7 points, but perhaps-- perhaps even likely-- more.

There is a better chance the Penguins are sellers in deadline trades with Colorado and Winnipeg than getting 3 points off them in this stretch.

 

[KIRK]

I'm going closer.

To think that you're so much like @ColePens when it comes to optimism about all things Penguins, but he can't for the life of him get through to you about how to dress.

BTW, I do hope you're right . . . I'm just not banking on it. I think the death spiral is on. Just a question of what Sid and Geno can do to slow it.

 

[Gurglesons]

and we're one less point behind them. I don't know how that 30% is calculated or anything, but it seems awfully low. Like I said, assuming we make a change to get better. We still have an awful lot of season left. Play even with them and win the series against them and we're in.

I just think it's way too early for odds like that to mean much of anything.

Over the last five years, 77.5% (62 of 80) of the teams that were in a playoff spot on Thanksgiving also had one when the regular season was completed. It's 75% dating to 2005-06.

If we win out to get in shooting distance of the top three we are still out by likely 3 points.

 

[Peat]

and we're one less point behind them. I don't know how that 30% is calculated or anything, but it seems awfully low. Like I said, assuming we make a change to get better. We still have an awful lot of season left. Play even with them and win the series against them and we're in.

I just think it's way too early for odds like that to mean much of anything.

McCurdy has us at 44%.


Thing is, if we get better, then our position is no sweat at all. One good five win streak would erase it all.

But the question is whether we get better and when. KIRK's not wrong about that being a rocky stretch of games coming up and we really need to get better enough to at least stay level through it.

 

[Ogrezilla]

Over the last five years, 77.5% (62 of 80) of the teams that were in a playoff spot on Thanksgiving also had one when the regular season was completed. It's 75% dating to 2005-06.

If we win out to get in shooting distance of the top three we are still out by likely 3 points.

I have a feeling that stat gets fuzzier when you look at more specifics. What if the team is still actively looking to make moves to improve itself because it sees itself as a contender? What if that team has a handful of the best players in the league on it? We do not fit the typical circumstances of those teams.

 

[Gurglesons]

I have a feeling that stat gets fuzzier when you look at more specifics. What if the team is still actively looking to make moves to improve itself because it sees itself as a contender? What if that team has a handful of the best players in the league on it?

I mean, that is the stats.

And nothing we’ve done in the last five games in encouraging to me..

 

[KIRK]

I mean, that is the stats.

And nothing we’ve done in the last five games in encouraging to me..

I shudder to think of what the next 5 (schedule just cited) will do for you.

 

[Ogrezilla]

I mean, that is the stats.

And nothing we’ve done in the last five games in encouraging to me..

I know it's the stat. I'm saying it's a pretty bad stat in terms of predicting anything for our team.

 

[Gurglesons]

I know it's the stat. I'm saying it's a pretty bad stat.

How is it a bad stat? It is what has happened since the lockout. 75% of the teams in
the playoffs make it. Obviously, the Metro is a mess and the Rangers and Islanders will bottom out. But the Flyers and Canes are teams I’d put in our ball park if we continue to play like we have

 

[Ogrezilla]

How is it a bad stat? It is what has happened since the lockout. 75% of the teams in
the playoffs make it. Obviously, the Metro is a mess and the Rangers and Islanders will bottom out. But the Flyers and Canes are teams I’d put in our ball park if we continue to play like we have

It's a bad stat for predicting anything. It's a small, scattered sample that includes too many different variables while not having enough information about any of those variables to mean much. These aren't 31 identical teams. We aren't the typical team out of the playoffs at Thanksgiving.

 

[KIRK]

It's a bad stat for predicting anything. It's a small, scattered sample that includes too many different variables while not having enough information about any of those variables to mean much. These aren't 31 identical teams. We aren't the typical team out of the playoffs at Thanksgiving.

How so?

We're a team with 4 stars that otherwise is bottom five (yes, Sid, Geno, Letang, sometimes Phil, but otherwise a bunch of meh and crap with two AHL defensive pairings and a mess in net).

How is that ATYPICAL?

EDIT: Come to think of it, we're actually a bottom five team WITH the 4 stars right now.

 

[Peat]

How is it a bad stat? It is what has happened since the lockout. 75% of the teams in
the playoffs make it. Obviously, the Metro is a mess and the Rangers and Islanders will bottom out. But the Flyers and Canes are teams I’d put in our ball park if we continue to play like we have

Because its about as accurate as expecting Malkin and Wilson to have the same shooting percentage if you gave them the same opportunities.

I'm not here to present the case for untrammeled optimism but a stat based on "This is what happens to everyone" isn't all that great for predicting what will happen in one particular case.

 

[Ogrezilla]

How so?

We're a team with 4 stars that otherwise is bottom five.

EDIT: We're also a bottom five team WITH the 4 stars right now.

because we are a team who fully expects to make the playoffs. As such, we will do more to try to improve the team short term than the vast majority of the teams included in that stat.

And because we have Sid, Geno, Kessel, Brassard and Letang. We don't need to bring in the framework. The core is here.

 

[Sideline]

It's a bad stat for predicting anything. It's a small, scattered sample that includes too many different variables while not having enough information about any of those variables to mean much. These aren't 31 identical teams. We aren't the typical team out of the playoffs at Thanksgiving.

I think you might be looking at this through rose colored glasses. The bottom 6 has been trash. The defense 3 through 7 has been mediocre at best. The goaltending is looking shaky. If Sid, Geno, or Letang miss any significant time this team is so done.

 

[KIRK]

because we are a team who fully expects to make the playoffs. As such, we will do more to try to improve the team short term than the vast majority of the teams included in that stat.

With no cap space and few assets to leverage.

The depth of the issues, especially on defense, and the cap/assets variables are unlike anything I've seen in the Sid/Geno era.

 

[Slaaapshuter]

I know it's the stat. I'm saying it's a pretty bad stat in terms of predicting anything for our team.

What it shows is that enough of the season has been played so the 5 hot streak to begin the season and the 5 cold streak are nullified. It shows the teams which are good and which are bad current season. A big chunk of that 25% are likely between the last playoff taker and the first outside it changing place, with the odd good team shaping up in the second half and get to the playoffs.

If you think that the current Pens team is much better than what they are showing you don't have to worry or look at that stat. As said, the gap in points is easily bridged by a good team if it comes to it. But if not, then the current standings are pretty much showing who is good and who is bad this year.