The All-Purpose 6th Overall Discussion Thread PT IV (MOD Warning Post 554)

[Tiranis]

Is Ehlers really 5'11"? He looks shorter.

If anything, he could be reaching 6'0". He looks at least as tall as Crosby.

 

[Proto]

Ehlers scoring 84 points in 43 games (end of season + playoffs) makes discussion of reach/strength a bit more problematic for me. Even accounting for their different circumstances (teammates, etc.) that's a very wide production gap.

I also don't care about "defensive" game as much as I care about a combination of production and driving play. ZK was a 52-53% CF player with Booth. If you could tell me Ritchie would improve similarly on a slightly quicker curve (ZK took a few years to learn to be a pro), I'd be pretty happy with that pick. But if Ehlers turns into Nyquist in 4-5 years, I'd have a hard time turning down an elite skating forward who can be a + possession player and score against the run of play, something the Canucks sorely lack.

 

[ginner classic]

I think if we drafted Ehlers or Nylander, neither is well suited to a 3rd line role and would / should be developed in the AHL until they are ready to step into a top 6 role where their offensive gifts could be better used.

Ritchie and Virtanen - while I think they have equal upside, are more suited to making the team earlier on a 3rd line role while and being developed in the NHL.

Right now my preference probably goes Ehlers or Virtanen > Ritchie > Nylander. I have an admitted preference for speed and skating.

Who knows how the Canucks rank them but if you are looking at speed, size, and scoring as the criteria it's very possibly Virtanen, Ritchie, Ehlers, Nylander.

 

[deckercky]

Ehlers scoring 84 points in 43 games (end of season + playoffs) makes discussion of reach/strength a bit more problematic for me. Even accounting for their different circumstances (teammates, etc.) that's a very wide production gap.

I also don't care about "defensive" game as much as I care about a combination of production and driving play. ZK was a 52-53% CF player with Booth. If you could tell me Ritchie would improve similarly on a slightly quicker curve (ZK took a few years to learn to be a pro), I'd be pretty happy with that pick. But if Ehlers turns into Nyquist in 4-5 years, I'd have a hard time turning down an elite skating forward who can be a + possession player and score against the run of play, something the Canucks sorely lack.

If you're going to cherry pick the end of the season for Ehlers, do the same for Ritchie when he got a center and produced at a 100+ pt pace for the rest of the season, which closes most of the production gap.

I'm also not sure Nyquist is the Nyquist that exists in people's minds. His pace lasted a decently long time, but the numbers are so ridiculously unsustainable that I'm withholding judgment for another half season.

 

[LeftCoast]

Who knows how the Canucks rank them but if you are looking at speed, size, and scoring as the criteria it's very possibly Virtanen, Ritchie, Ehlers, Nylander.

If you were to grade all four based on shooting, skating, creativity / play making and physical play, each would have 3 very high scores and one low one.

Virtanen (IMO) has the most complete package. His negative is his play making; he's a creative offensive player, but not a good play maker at this point. However, as he is young, and clearly has great offensive instincts, playmaking can be learned/coached. You can't coach size, and there are limitations on what you can do with speed. Further, while all 4 are excellent shooters, Virtanen is ahead of the others in this respect.

I don't know how Ehlers and Virtanen would compare for flat out speed and explosiveness, but Ehlers is the most dynamic skater of the bunch.

Nylander may be the most creative play maker. While he has a great shot and is a good skater, his vision and creativity with the puck is very good.

Ritchie is by far the most physical. Virtanen plays just as aggressively, but there is difference when you are bringing 230lb versus 210lbs.

 

[SaintSinner]

This just in, The Hockey News Draft Preview 2014 is out on Zinio.

 

[LeftCoast]

If anything, he could be reaching 6'0". He looks at least as tall as Crosby.

There is so much stale and/or bad information on size. I'll believe a player's actual size and weight when they measure it at the scouting combine.

 

[Proto]

If you're going to cherry pick the end of the season for Ehlers, do the same for Ritchie when he got a center and produced at a 100+ pt pace for the rest of the season, which closes most of the production gap.

I'm also not sure Nyquist is the Nyquist that exists in people's minds. His pace lasted a decently long time, but the numbers are so ridiculously unsustainable that I'm withholding judgment for another half season.

I don't think I'm cherry picking. I'm using about half of his totals and he continually improved after coming to North America.

What was Ritchie's production on a per-game basis after he got a centre? I'm not sure what you'd use to constitute a "season" in the CHL since it varies wildly based on international play. I'm not even down on Ritchie; I've pointed out several times that his production relative to his teammates is very good. But nearly 2PG for Ehlers is the sort of production that would put him in the discussion as a top 3 pick if he'd done it over an entire season.

 

[Proto]

Virtanen (IMO) has the most complete package. His negative is his play making; he's a creative offensive player, but not a good play maker at this point. However, as he is young, and clearly has great offensive instincts, playmaking can be learned/coached. You can't coach size, and there are limitations on what you can do with speed. Further, while all 4 are excellent shooters, Virtanen is ahead of the others in this respect.

I've been down this road before so I won't say much, but this brings up an interesting question of "package" versus what the player actually, tangibly produced. If Virtanen already has all these things, why is he just a ppg player who can't crack the top powerplay unit? I know the "complete package" is tantalizing, but those are the sorts of things that teams chase in drafts and sometimes regret.

Maybe I'm wrong, but it would give me pause.

You could just as easily spin the inverse of what you said and note that Ehlers/Nylander have more room to gain/improve as they grow into their bodies. Given that, their production -- already better than others in the same area of the draft -- could more likely translate to the NHL.

I think it mostly comes down to personal preference at this point. I just hope whoever the Canucks pick ends up being the steal of the draft

 

[Tiranis]

I don't think I'm cherry picking. I'm using about half of his totals and he continually improved after coming to North America.

What was Ritchie's production on a per-game basis after he got a centre? I'm not sure what you'd use to constitute a "season" in the CHL since it varies wildly based on international play. I'm not even down on Ritchie; I've pointed out several times that his production relative to his teammates is very good. But nearly 2PG for Ehlers is the sort of production that would put him in the discussion as a top 3 pick if he'd done it over an entire season.

There's more to scouting than production. Even so, how impressive is 2PPG when Barbashev went 1.65PPG over the same stretch on a worse team while taking the primary defensive match-ups as opposed to being a 2nd liner?

Consider the type of teams that Ehlers racked up his points against, as Halifax plays in the weakest Q division. Consider the impact of not having to face the top defensemen on teams with little depth.

 

[LeftCoast]

There's more to scouting than production. Even so, how impressive is 2PPG when Barbashev went 1.65PPG over the same stretch on a worse team while taking the primary defensive match-ups as opposed to being a 2nd liner?

Consider the type of teams that Ehlers racked up his points against, as Halifax plays in the weakest Q division. Consider the impact of not having to face the top defensemen on teams with little depth.

It didn't hurt MacKinnon last year.

 

[Tiranis]

It didn't hurt MacKinnon last year.

And MacKinnon was most certainly not scouted by his stats, otherwise he would've went after Drouin. I'm also not clear on what you're referring to. MacKinnon was their top center last season going up against other top lines. Also it was not a weak division last year. None of what I said would apply to MacKinnon.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

MacKinnon was their top center last season going up against other top lines. Also it was not a weak division last year. None of what I said would apply to MacKinnon.

This is true, but he was doing it with Jonathan Drouin riding shotgun. Ehlers didn't have that luxury nearly as often.

We're also comparing Ehlers rookie season to MacKinnon's 2nd year in Halifax. Having a year under your belt is a big advantage, especially when you consider how drastically different the Swiss league is to the CHL.

________

Does anyone know if there have been other top 10 picks that were bigger risers than Ehlers in their draft year? How common is it to go from not being seen as a top 60 prospect to comfortably inside the top 10? What is the track record like of those draft year risers?

Really intrigued by his development curve over the last year and just can't get past how far he came in one year, as a CHL rookie. It should be noted there wasn't another rookie that played in the CHL last season that was within 25 points of Ehlers at years end.

 

[Trelane]

If anything, he could be reaching 6'0". He looks at least as tall as Crosby.

I'll give him that he's at least as tall as Drouin, maybe even a a shade taller. Of course who knows what Drouin's real measurements are. Also skinny guys seem taller than they are.

 

[thefeebster]

Gilman discusses the 6th overall a little bit, but really just two players in Reinhart and Virtanen. Elaborated more on JV, gave him some nice words. Wish he elaborated on others or had a longer interview!

 

[racerjoe]

This is true, but he was doing it with Jonathan Drouin riding shotgun. Ehlers didn't have that luxury nearly as often.

We're also comparing Ehlers rookie season to MacKinnon's 2nd year in Halifax. Having a year under your belt is a big advantage, especially when you consider how drastically different the Swiss league is to the CHL.

________

Does anyone know if there have been other top 10 picks that were bigger risers than Ehlers in their draft year? How common is it to go from not being seen as a top 60 prospect to comfortably inside the top 10? What is the track record like of those draft year risers?

Really intrigued by his development curve over the last year and just can't get past how far he came in one year, as a CHL rookie. It should be noted there wasn't another rookie that played in the CHL last season that was within 25 points of Ehlers at years end.

I totally agree, just looking at how much improvemnt is there is crazy to me. You get a guy like him the right coach, who can continue to help him grow, and look out.

 

[Tiranis]

This is true, but he was doing it with Jonathan Drouin riding shotgun. Ehlers didn't have that luxury nearly as often.

We're also comparing Ehlers rookie season to MacKinnon's 2nd year in Halifax. Having a year under your belt is a big advantage, especially when you consider how drastically different the Swiss league is to the CHL.

________

Does anyone know if there have been other top 10 picks that were bigger risers than Ehlers in their draft year? How common is it to go from not being seen as a top 60 prospect to comfortably inside the top 10? What is the track record like of those draft year risers?

Really intrigued by his development curve over the last year and just can't get past how far he came in one year, as a CHL rookie. It should be noted there wasn't another rookie that played in the CHL last season that was within 25 points of Ehlers at years end.

Ehlers was considered a top 60 prospect last year. He was considered a top 30 prospect in August and was getting a ton of mentions for the top 20 as early as September 1st after people saw him over in North America.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

Ehlers was considered a top 60 prospect last year. He was considered a top 30 prospect in August and was getting a ton of mentions for the top 20 as early as September 1st after people saw him over in North America.

He was a consensus top 30 pick? Craig Button didn't have him in his top 70 in September...

Who was the last guy you can think of that was a bigger draft year riser than Ehlers? A guy that went top 10...

 

[Tiranis]

He was a consensus top 30 pick? Craig Button didn't have him in his top 70 in September...

Just read the Ehlers thread on these boards, the first few pages will give you an idea of what kind of prospect he was considered to be. Just because the scouting services took a long time to catch up doesn't mean anything.

Who was the last guy you can think of that was a bigger draft year riser than Ehlers? A guy that went top 10...

Huberdeau, Johansen, Skinner, Lindholm. Just off the top of my head.

It's not like I'm saying he's a bad prospect but there's a lot of mental gymnastics in this thread to justify why he's better than other very good prospects who are ranked in the same range. There's a reason scouts don't have any consensus on which one of these guys is better. They're all incredibly close.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

Just read the Ehlers thread on these boards, the first few pages will give you an idea of what kind of prospect he was considered to be. Just because the scouting services took a long time to catch up doesn't mean anything.



Huberdeau, Johansen, Skinner, Lindholm. Just off the top of my head.

What scouting services had Ehlers in the top 20-30 in September?

Which of these guys do you think climbed more in the rankings than Ehlers in their respective draft years?

 

[Tiranis]

What scouting services had Ehlers in the top 20-30 in September?

Which of these guys do you think climbed more in the rankings than Ehlers in their respective draft years?

Scheifele, Skinner and Lindholm were not in the top 30, for sure. Skinner was barely in the 2nd round. I think Huberdeau and Johansen were both on the edge of the 1st round.

Looking at preliminary rankings for Ehlers is a fool's errand. He was being evaluated by the QMJHL scouts who had absolutely zero opportunities to see him play. It's not the same as Skinner being ranked in late 2nd or early 3rd, having spent a full season prior in the OHL.

Opinions of this board on someone like Ehlers give you a better idea of what his actual draft stock was coming into the year.

 

[Drop the Sopel]

Scheifele, Skinner and Lindholm were not in the top 30, for sure. Skinner was barely in the 2nd round. I think Huberdeau and Johansen were both on the edge of the 1st round.

Interesting. All these draft year risers look to be good to excellent picks. Can you think of any big top 10 risers in recent memory that really disappointed?

I can't find any rankings with Ehlers in the top 30 before the start of this season. Do you know of any publications that had him as a 1st rd pick heading into the year?

 

[synobyte]

im torn between Ritchie, Virtanen and Nylander.... all 3 i would be happy with..

 

[Tiranis]

Interesting. All these draft year risers look to be good to excellent picks. Can you think of any big top 10 risers in recent memory that really disappointed?

I can't find any rankings with Ehlers in the top 30 before the start of this season. Do you know of any publications that had him as a 1st rd pick heading into the year?

Not in the last few years but really: how many picks in the top 10 have actually disappointed over the last 4-5 drafts? Those top 10 picks get pretty intense amount of exposure and scrutiny.

 

[thedavid]

Not in the last few years but really: how many picks in the top 10 have actually disappointed over the last 4-5 drafts? Those top 10 picks get pretty intense amount of exposure and scrutiny.

Counting only forwards, Filatov and Glennie are basically the only two out of 30 forwards taken top 10 since 2008. There are some others you could probably make a case for for various reasons (Burmistrov, Bailey, MPS, etc.) but even they have a decent amount of games under their belt.

Generally, if you're investing a top 10 pick in someone, you're going to make damn sure you give them plenty of opportunities to succeed.