Prospect Info: The all-encompassing Sam Morin thread [began in 2017]

[TCTC]

I do think rookie mistakes exist, because like Morin said last night, the game is much faster in the NHL.
Remember Morin's mistake against the Rangers in pre-season? That was a typical rookie mistake IMO.

 

[Random Forest]

Thought experiment. You have two D groups, but have no way of identifying any player. Would you be able to identify which is the team of veterans simply based on the types of mistakes they make or don't make?

Team A:

Kris Letang - Dan Girardi
Matt Niskanen - Torey Krug
Andrew MacDonald - Radko Gudas


Team B:

Zach Werenski - Nikita Zaitsev
Brady Skjei - Shayne Gostisbehere
Trevor Van Riemsdyk - Brandon Carlo


My hypothesis is that it would not be obvious which team is the young team and which team is the vets.

But they don't. That is exactly the point......

And I don't think you've made a compelling argument that they do.

Pointing to the fact that rookies make mistakes doesn't prove that the types of mistakes they make are because they're rookies.

 

[deadhead]

MacDonald's mistakes are more a lack of talent, but he doesn't make as many "bad" mistakes as Ghost, that is, he doesn't try to push it, it's just that he gets stripped or just can't outskate people. Though I think some of our veteran defensemen make mistakes because the scheme asks more of them than their present skill package allows, Streit was a good example this year as he slowed down.

Ghost makes some really bad mistakes because he's overly confident in his talent, ambitious passes out of the D-zone that are intercepted, or trying to deke a defender with no one behind him, and getting stripped for a breakaway - as he gets experience, he'll know when to take chances and when to play it safe - he'll still get stripped but he'll have someone like Morin behind him to CYA.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

MacDonald's mistakes are more a lack of talent, but he doesn't make as many "bad" mistakes as Ghost.

Speaking of ghosts, I couldn't get further than that before I died of laughter, so you are speaking now to the ghost of the former poster who posted under this username. I am addressing you from the afterlife because you have killed me. Hilarious, and deadly.

 

[deadhead]

Speaking of ghosts, I couldn't get further than that before I died of laughter, so you are speaking now to the ghost of the former poster who posted under this username. I am addressing you from the afterlife because you have killed me. Hilarious, and deadly.

GA 60 minutes 5x5
MacDonald 2.19 (best on defense)
Ghost 2.60 (tied with Manning for worst)

CFrel
Ghost 2.4/3.4
MacDonald -4.8/-4.0

So Ghost controls the puck, but opposing teams score more with him on the ice - what does that suggest?

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

GA 60 minutes 5x5
MacDonald 2.19 (best on defense)
Ghost 2.60 (tied with Manning for worst)

CFrel
Ghost 2.4/3.4
MacDonald -4.8/-4.0

So Ghost controls the puck, but opposing teams score more with him on the ice - what does that suggest?

It suggests that I need (or rather needed, before you killed me) to enroll in both basic mathematics and basics statistics courses, get super duper high on hallucinogens, and stand on my head in class while listening to the lectures. In that way, I could understand how those statistics can in any way trump the overwhelming evidence of my eyes. Or rather, it could have done that, were I alive to try.

The truth is, head, that Andy the Farming Duncelord is actually garbage at hockey, while Ghost is good at hockey. It's not more complicated than that.

 

[Striiker]

I don't know about that. It might be true on some level for high-risk youngsters like Gostisbehere, but for every Gostisbehere there's a Slavin, Provorov, Pesce, etc. who doesn't make that type of mistake with any frequency.

Just like how for every Subban, Krug, Hamilton, Yandle, etc. who make those exact same mistakes, there's a Vlasic, McDonagh, etc. who doesn't really make those same types of mistakes.

I don't think rookie mistakes exist. I think the types of mistakes players make has much more to do with their play style than their experience. Risky veteran players make the same mistakes as risky rookies. Safe veterans make the same mistakes as safe rookies. ****** veterans the same as ****** rookies.

Yeah, I don't think there's any mistakes that are exclusive to rookies and I do agree that there's different types of mistakes based on what type of player they are. I'm just saying I think sometimes the mistakes are made because of inexperience instead of mindset. You're right that there's different kind of guys/styles, Ghost and Provorov are very different players of course, but I still think there's a difference between the reasoning behind mistakes (even among similar types of players).

Like, for example, if we compare the Ghost of his first few NHL games versus the Ghost we see today, there's probably some mistakes he's learned to stop making (or at least reduce the frequency of) as he gained experience and realized what can and can't work at this level, compared to the AHL or college where he was always the most skilled player on the ice.

Maybe rookie mistake is just the wrong name for it.

 

[Striiker]

MacDonald's mistakes are more a lack of talent, but he doesn't make as many "bad" mistakes as Ghost, that is, he doesn't try to push it, it's just that he gets stripped or just can't outskate people. Though I think some of our veteran defensemen make mistakes because the scheme asks more of them than their present skill package allows, Streit was a good example this year as he slowed down.

Ghost makes some really bad mistakes because he's overly confident in his talent, ambitious passes out of the D-zone that are intercepted, or trying to deke a defender with no one behind him, and getting stripped for a breakaway - as he gets experience, he'll know when to take chances and when to play it safe - he'll still get stripped but he'll have someone like Morin behind him to CYA.

GA 60 minutes 5x5
MacDonald 2.19 (best on defense)
Ghost 2.60 (tied with Manning for worst)

CFrel
Ghost 2.4/3.4
MacDonald -4.8/-4.0

So Ghost controls the puck, but opposing teams score more with him on the ice - what does that suggest?

That he's been stuck with Manning, Streit, and MDZ this year instead of Provorov?

 

[Rebels57]

GA 60 minutes 5x5
MacDonald 2.19 (best on defense)
Ghost 2.60 (tied with Manning for worst)

CFrel
Ghost 2.4/3.4
MacDonald -4.8/-4.0

So Ghost controls the puck, but opposing teams score more with him on the ice - what does that suggest?

It suggests one of them has played all season with Provorov, and the other has played with Streit, Del Zotto, Schultz, and Manning.

Further proof you don't actually watch the games.

 

[Rebels57]

That he's been stuck with Manning, Streit, and MDZ this year instead of Provorov?

Beat me to it

 

[pinedak]

It suggests that I need (or rather needed, before you killed me) to enroll in both basic mathematics and basics statistics courses, get super duper high on hallucinogens, and stand on my head in class while listening to the lectures. In that way, I could understand how those statistics can in any way trump the overwhelming evidence of my eyes. Or rather, it could have done that, were I alive to try.

The truth is, head, that Andy the Farming Duncelord is actually garbage at hockey, while Ghost is good at hockey. It's not more complicated than that.

No to mention that advanced stats without context are essentially meaningless. Also per puckalytics Ghost has 2.3 ga/60 Amac 2.47 GA/60.

CorsiF60REL:

Ghost:+3.79
Amac:-6.35

CorsiA60REL:

Ghost:-1.93
Amac:+4.32

Mind you a positive stat is bad here it means you yield more shots

DZone Starts%:
Ghost:21.18
Amac:32.77

Most Frequent D-partner

Ghost:Manning
Amac: Provy

All this is to say at 5v5 ghost is the superior player basically everywhere. It holds true for 5v4 as well but that's obvious. If you need further proof just look at Provorov's numbers with anyone else other than Amac.

Provy Wowy vs teammates with Amac

Corsifor%: 46.6
Goals Against/60: 2.05
Goals for/60: 1.53

Without

Corsifor%: 52.3
Goals Against/60: 2.68 this is mostly due to Streit's 3.35 GA/60 take it away and its 2.02
Goals for/60: 1.86

Basically he's stellar away from 2 albatros defenseman who have no business being in the NHL.

 

[deadhead]

I watch the games, and I've seen numerous breakaways due to Ghost making mistakes, like passing it to an opposing forward out of the D-zone, and getting stripped at the blue line with no one behind him trying to deke someone in the O-zone. He gambles too much without a safety net and that leads to premier scoring opportunities for the other team.

Of course he's more talented than our four defensive dwarves (used to be five), and in his role as offensive playmaker he has to take some gambles, but Ghost is still learning WHEN to gamble.

And if you haven't seen that, then YOU haven't watched the games this year.

 

[Curufinwe]

No to mention that advanced stats without context are essentially meaningless. Also per puckalytics Ghost has 2.3 ga/60 Amac 2.47 GA/60.

Those are not their 5 on 5 numbers. This site uses the same statistics as puckalytics.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...=50&teamid=22&type=goals&sort=A60&sortdir=ASC

 

[pinedak]

I watch the games, and I've seen numerous breakaways due to Ghost making mistakes, like passing it to an opposing forward out of the D-zone, and getting stripped at the blue line with no one behind him trying to deke someone in the O-zone. He gambles too much without a safety net and that leads to premier scoring opportunities for the other team.

Of course he's more talented than our four defensive dwarves (used to be five), and in his role as offensive playmaker he has to take some gambles, but Ghost is still learning WHEN to gamble.

And if you haven't seen that, then YOU haven't watched the games this year.

Ghost is perfectly fine. Gamble is part of his game and is what makes him the player he is. You live with it because those mistakes aren't worth altering the player he is. Obviously he's still learning every good player continues to learn and adapt through their career it doesn't stop at 25 but that's not the point.

Lesson is just because a play looks bad doesn't mean it is and his game is fine. He's never going to be a defense stalwart and doesn't need to be, that's not his game. Trying to make that his game and be risk averse is silly. Of course he's gonna take chances that may not work, that's what great players do.

 

[Rebels57]

I watch the games, and I've seen numerous breakaways due to Ghost making mistakes, like passing it to an opposing forward out of the D-zone, and getting stripped at the blue line with no one behind him trying to deke someone in the O-zone. He gambles too much without a safety net and that leads to premier scoring opportunities for the other team.

Of course he's more talented than our four defensive dwarves (used to be five), and in his role as offensive playmaker he has to take some gambles, but Ghost is still learning WHEN to gamble.

And if you haven't seen that, then YOU haven't watched the games this year.

No one is debating this. We all know he takes risk that sometimes don't pay off and is still learning his limitations.

What we are debating is the hilariously wrong comment that "Ghost makes more bad mistakes than MacDonald."

 

[Striiker]

I watch the games, and I've seen numerous breakaways due to Ghost making mistakes, like passing it to an opposing forward out of the D-zone, and getting stripped at the blue line with no one behind him trying to deke someone in the O-zone. He gambles too much without a safety net and that leads to premier scoring opportunities for the other team.

Of course he's more talented than our four defensive dwarves (used to be five), and in his role as offensive playmaker he has to take some gambles, but Ghost is still learning WHEN to gamble.

And if you haven't seen that, then YOU haven't watched the games this year.

Pay closer attention.

Nobody said Ghost doesn't make bad passes, but saying he makes more than MacDonald is a joke.

Only reason you're making things up to defend MacDonald is because defending him is an extension of defending Hakstol and his idiotic decisions. Unfortunately for you, too many people on this board watch hockey to let you get away with saying things like that.

 

[deadhead]

Maybe you should pay closer attention.

The reason Ghost has a higher GA than MacDonald is he makes more BAD mistakes, every defenseman gets stripped, makes a bad pass clearing the zone, etc. MacDonald makes more than Ghost because he's less talented, he's not going to skate his way out of trouble, etc.

But MacDonald is a veteran who avoids the really egregious mistakes for the most part, whereas Ghost makes a lot of BAD gambles - what makes a top offensive player is the experience and instincts to know WHEN to gamble and play it safe. You should know where your teammates are on the ice, and know when you have someone CYA or if you're on the highwire without a net.

For Ghost to become a great player, he has to cut way back on the BAD gambles, and master the basics of defense, learn how to take the right angles instead of just relying on his speed (which is good, but not NHL elite), anticipate better, etc. He's still climbing the learning curve.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Gun to my head and someone asks me which defenseman made more miscues leading to breakaways this season, MacDonald or Ghost, I'm definitely saying Ghost.

I think he's twice the player MacDonald is, but Ghost made some absolutely horrendous turnovers and defensive mistakes this season. This doesn't mean MacDonald also doesn't turn the puck over; it's just that Ghost's style and risks, and with him playing poorly for 2/3 of the season, led to more turnovers resulting in immediate high percentage opportunities for the opposition.

 

[Striiker]

Maybe you should pay closer attention.

The reason Ghost has a higher GA than MacDonald is he makes more BAD mistakes, every defenseman gets stripped, makes a bad pass clearing the zone, etc. MacDonald makes more than Ghost because he's less talented, he's not going to skate his way out of trouble, etc.

But MacDonald is a veteran who avoids the really egregious mistakes for the most part, whereas Ghost makes a lot of BAD gambles - what makes a top offensive player is the experience and instincts to know WHEN to gamble and play it safe. You should know where your teammates are on the ice, and know when you have someone CYA or if you're on the highwire without a net.

For Ghost to become a great player, he has to cut way back on the BAD gambles, and master the basics of defense, learn how to take the right angles instead of just relying on his speed (which is good, but not NHL elite), anticipate better, etc. He's still climbing the learning curve.

Oh so every goal against when Ghost is on the ice is because of his turnovers? Well that's good to know
Couldn't possibly be that he plays with significantly worse players who regularly screw up and get scored on, right? Nah that couldnt be it... I guess Manning, Streit, and Del Zotto are just as good as Provorov? Yeah. True. They definitely don't impact goals against.

This is just yet another example of you making things up. You don't pay attention so you don't know what's really going on. You prove it time and time again.

Simmonds is slow.
Gudas is slow.
Voracek is soft.
Vandevelde is a master of the system
Hakstol had no choice with the lineup
And so so so many more...
Now we can add "MacDonald doesn't make egregious mistakes" to the list.

Quite the resume you're building here.

Gun to my head and someone asks me which defenseman made more miscues leading to breakaways this season, MacDonald or Ghost, I'm definitely saying Ghost.

I think he's twice the player MacDonald is, but Ghost made some absolutely horrendous turnovers and defensive mistakes this season. This doesn't mean MacDonald also doesn't turn the puck over; it's just that Ghost's style and risks, and with him playing poorly for 2/3 of the season, led to more turnovers resulting in immediate high percentage opportunities for the opposition.

Even if we pretend Ghost was bad for 2/3 or the season, which he wasn't, MacDonald was bad for 3/3 of the season. Ghost makes mistakes, no doubt about it, but saying he makes more than Macdonald... way overboard.

 

[FLYguy3911]

MacDonald usually turns the puck over in his own zone. It's hard to give up a breakaway that way.

 

[pinedak]

Those are not their 5 on 5 numbers. This site uses the same statistics as puckalytics.

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...=50&teamid=22&type=goals&sort=A60&sortdir=ASC

They are 5v5 numbers but I had a rel stat as I read the wrong column. Either way the broad point remains Ghost is the superior defender.

 

[pinedak]

MacDonald usually turns the puck over in his own zone. It's hard to give up a breakaway that way.

Yeah considering the corsi against/60 #'s and expected goals against in addition to the rarity of the event its hard to argue that breakaways are an accurate measure of mistake propensity. Too small of a sample for sure.

MacDonald plays far from mistake free hockey and given how much time he spends in the DZ his mistakes are significantly more likely to result in goals and scoring chance.

Even then I would take Ghost and his break up% over anything Amac can do everyday of the week.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Even if we pretend Ghost was bad for 2/3 or the season, which he wasn't, MacDonald was bad for 3/3 of the season. Ghost makes mistakes, no doubt about it, but saying he makes more than Macdonald... way overboard.

Well, I'd say Ghost has played well for about 2 months of the 6 month long season, and played pretty poorly the remainder, so, yes, I think Ghost's season breaks down to 1/3 good and 2/3 subpar.

And I didn't say Ghost makes more mistakes than MacDonald, I said his mistakes have led to more breakaways / immediate high percentage scoring opportunities than MacDonald's mistakes. Although, if you want to go to the official giveaway stats, Ghost has 67 for the season vs. 49 for MacDonald. (I'm sure you'll dispute the accuracy of the scorekeepers, however.) Anyway, I'll reiterate I think Ghost is twice the player MacDonald is before you try to turn that one around.

 

[Tripod]

Lots of talk about Morin going on.

 

[Rebels57]

Lots of talk about Morin going on.