The All Encompassing Dion Phaneuf Discussion Thread

[crump]

Gardiner had 68 giveaways last year to Dion's 63 despite having less TOI than Dion, he also played the 2nd easiest mins on our D last year, don't you think your statement is a little presumptuous, do you account winning physical battles in corners or just one on one battles to being a better defenceman, most would. Simply using points as your criteria is a faulty way or assessing players, I will tell you one thing, defenceman still has defence in it's spelling.

I agree to some extent

I know it's the age of analytics, but you have to look at the big picture. More turnovers, but he had the puck more, more possession means at some point you either pass more, score more or give it away more or some analysts dream combination of the 3. I don't want to go searching up stats, possession numbers to prove this. But it makes sense to me that if you have the puck more your going to give it away more than someone who doesn't. Do we catalogue bad passes that don't count against your giveaway stats but end up on the poor sucker who took your bad pass and then gave it away because he got clobbered by the other team (or you in some cases).

There are too many variables to say "look, this proves he was bad at this because of this number."

I like stats, don't get me wrong, it's people's interpretation of them that is often inaccurate.

 

[diceman934]

Wow, people are just a little absurd here.

Sorry, but it's not all Dion's fault. Dion is fine, and a good piece for the team. No, he is not one of the top 5 elite D in the league, but he is a solid top pairing player. Hockey is a TEAM game, it does not fall on one player.

The people complaining about his salary, just show how little they understand the changes the new CBA brought about. In the past Dion would have signed a deal till 40 with the last few years being padded at 1 mil. This just can't happen anymore. The average cap hit for top players in the NHL is going to go up. Just look at the deals that got signed this year. Dion falls right in place with the contracts given out this year. At the very most he is overpaid by .5 and that is not something to go cry about. Sorry but it's very ignorant to compare back diving deals or contracts singed right off of a ELC to that of one signed by a young UFA.

Yes and that is why I posted Jay Bo as a comparison.....same everything yet one signed for 5 years and the other 7 years....now you would think that the lower cap hit of very comparable D man would be the one with the longer term, yet you would be wrong. Jay Bo 5.2 for 5 years and Dion 7M for 7 years and many said he took a discount! It is a vast over payment in salary and term. He is over paid by 1-2 M according to other GM who were interested in him.

 

[Cap'n Flavour]

5.2M per and an Olympic team Canada member......and 7M per there is the context you are asking for....not to mention that Jay Bo is a better over all D man.

Bouwmeester is an overrated possession black hole who plays too many minutes... and still arguably outperforms Dion in many metrics (better point production per 60 5v5 and 5v4, sometimes CorsiRel and GA/60). So a fair comparable.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

Please take the time to read this on Phaneuf, QoC, QoT etc.

http://hockey-graphs.com/2014/01/06...-players-stats-toronto-maple-leafs-d-edition/

You don't have to agree with it, but its why everyone shouldn't overstate Quality of Competition, (Phaneuf had high Quality of Teammates)

and Also, it suggests that against average competition Phaneuf makes them above average.

But take the time to read it for yourselves, you might be shocked when you see the results. Its written by one of the more stats-savey guys around.

Cheers.

 

[ACC1224]

One thing I've learned from this thread is Bouwmeester needs a better Agent.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I agree to some extent

I know it's the age of analytics, but you have to look at the big picture. More turnovers, but he had the puck more, more possession means at some point you either pass more, score more or give it away more or some analysts dream combination of the 3. I don't want to go searching up stats, possession numbers to prove this. But it makes sense to me that if you have the puck more your going to give it away more than someone who doesn't. Do we catalogue bad passes that don't count against your giveaway stats but end up on the poor sucker who took your bad pass and then gave it away because he got clobbered by the other team (or you in some cases).

There are too many variables to say "look, this proves he was bad at this because of this number."

I like stats, don't get me wrong, it's people's interpretation of them that is often inaccurate.

I wish everyone on this forum would read this a thousand times or whatever it takes to understand why this is true.

 

[Cap'n Flavour]

Could well be. I'm trying to work and waste time here at the same time. I'm not claiming I never miss anything. If he re-states his question, I will try to answer (despite his rudeness). I think that's more than fair. It seems he would rather spend his time repeating over and over "why won't you answer ..." then simply asking again, that's his call.

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=88661551&postcount=936

I re-posted them a page ago. You quoted that post!

 

[Mess]

One thing I've learned from this thread is Bouwmeester needs a better Agent.

Good team players sometimes put the team in front of their own interests and sometimes give personal discounts in order to allow for management to build more competitive teams around them by leaving cap space available for others.

Jay Bow knows he is a great position on a competitive team now paired with Pietrangelo and on a team that on paper can challenge for the Cup.. Jay's new contract allowed for the Blues to add Stastny at @$7 mil a #1C via UFA because he gave the team a discount.. Steen and others also gave discounts as it seems Blues are building a TEAM concept.

Toronto seems like its an every man for himself concept because the more Dion gets the less cap there is for others. Jay Bow at $5.4 mil verses Dion at $7 mil gives Blues +$1.6 mil extra cap space to assemble a competitive team.

 

[TootooTrain]

Good team players sometimes put the team in front of their own interests and sometimes give personal discounts in order to allow for management to build more competitive teams around them by leaving cap space available for others.

Jay Bow knows he is a great position on a competitive team now paired with Pietrangelo and on a team that on paper can challenge for the Cup.. Jay's new contract allowed for the Blues to add Stastny at @$7 mil a #1C via UFA because he gave the team a discount.. Steen and others also gave discounts as it seems Blues are building a TEAM concept.

Since when is 5.8M for Steen who had one breakout year a discount? Pietrangelo 6.5, Statsny 7. I see market price.

 

[Duke Silver]

Bouwmeester is an overrated possession black hole who plays too many minutes... and still arguably outperforms Dion in many metrics (better point production per 60 5v5 and 5v4, sometimes CorsiRel and GA/60). So a fair comparable.

Not at the time his contract was signed. Which is the entire point.

There's a reason he signed at that number.

 

[ACC1224]

Good team players sometimes put the team in front of their own interests and sometimes give personal discounts in order to allow for management to build more competitive teams around them by leaving cap space available for others.

Jay Bow knows he is a great position on a competitive team now paired with Pietrangelo and on a team that on paper can challenge for the Cup.. Jay's new contract allowed for the Blues to add Stastny at @$7 mil a #1C via UFA because he gave the team a discount.. Steen and others also gave discounts as it seems Blues are building a TEAM concept.

Toronto seems like its an every man for himself concept because the more Dion gets the less cap there is for others. Jay Bow at $5.4 mil verses Dion at $7 mil gives Blues +$1.6 mil extra cap space to assemble a competitive team.

Oh yes, I'm sure this is exactly what happened.

How will a greedy player like Stastny fit in with the rest of this charitable bunch? Must be tough walking into a room full of guys you stole money from.

 

[Morbo]

Since when is 5.8M for Steen who had one breakout year a discount? Pietrangelo 6.5, Statsny 7. I see market price.

Exactly. Leafs should have been in on JBo, but I don't see any bargains with the others. Steen cashed in on what is very very likely a career season, he wouldn't be the first to do that and he won't be the last. Hell, Andrew Raycroft turned 60 good games with the Bruins into a fairly lengthy NHL career.

 

[Jack Bauer]

Good team players sometimes put the team in front of their own interests and sometimes give personal discounts in order to allow for management to build more competitive teams around them by leaving cap space available for others.

Jay Bow knows he is a great position on a competitive team now paired with Pietrangelo and on a team that on paper can challenge for the Cup.. Jay's new contract allowed for the Blues to add Stastny at @$7 mil a #1C via UFA because he gave the team a discount.. Steen and others also gave discounts as it seems Blues are building a TEAM concept.

Toronto seems like its an every man for himself concept because the more Dion gets the less cap there is for others. Jay Bow at $5.4 mil verses Dion at $7 mil gives Blues +$1.6 mil extra cap space to assemble a competitive team.

Do they have anything like Gardiner/JVR @ 4 and 4.25 each for the next 4-5 years?

Every team has bargains if you want to look for them.

There's also the point that generally contenders have an easier time convincing veterans to accept a little less to be a part of a winner to stay with a team.

What the debate on salaries never takes into account is that J-Bo was never available to Toronto at $5.4 million. Toronto's J-Bo may have just been locked up for $4 million per in Gardiner who likely has a higher ceiling to reach over his deal then J-Bo does.

 

[Gary Nylund]

http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=88661551&postcount=936

I re-posted them a page ago. You quoted that post!

Well thank you for the link. Was that so hard? Is this the question in question?

-----
Or another question which is more likely to be useful. Do you think the Leafs consider Dion to be a top 10 defenseman in the league? 15? 20? How about Letang by the Penguins?
-----

If so, the my answer to the first question is no. I would add that Dion and his agent also con't consider him to be top 10 and probably no-one else does either. If Dion was considered a top 10 d-man (the way Subban is) then he would have gotten more like 9 million a year (like Subban did).

As far as Letang goes, I don't know, I haven't really thought about it. Why do you ask?

 

[Jack Bauer]

Exactly. Leafs should have been in on JBo, but I don't see any bargains with the others. Steen cashed in on what is very very likely a career season, he wouldn't be the first to do that and he won't be the last. Hell, Andrew Raycroft turned 60 good games with the Bruins into a fairly lengthy NHL career.

We should have moved a 1st and 2 prospects for J-Bo then risk him walking as a UFA to a contender when he wants no part of the NHL's biggest market?

 

[hockeyfanz*]

Oh yes, I'm sure this is exactly what happened.

How will a greedy player like Stastny fit in with the rest of this charitable bunch? Must be tough walking into a room full of guys you stole money from.

Perhaps that contributes to locker room strife with Phaneuf and the Leafs?

 

[Jack Bauer]

Well thank you for the link. Was that so hard? Is this the question in question?

-----
Or another question which is more likely to be useful. Do you think the Leafs consider Dion to be a top 10 defenseman in the league? 15? 20? How about Letang by the Penguins?
-----

If so, the my answer to the first question is no. I would add that Dion and his agent also con't consider him to be top 10 and probably no-one else does either. If Dion was considered a top 10 d-man (the way Subban is) then he would have gotten more like 9 million a year (like Subban did).

As far as Letang goes, I don't know, I haven't really thought about it. Why do you ask?

Letang is an awful example at the moment since nobody knows what they have in him after his injury and play when he came back from it.

He may never be the same player.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Good team players sometimes put the team in front of their own interests and sometimes give personal discounts in order to allow for management to build more competitive teams around them by leaving cap space available for others.

Jay Bow knows he is a great position on a competitive team now paired with Pietrangelo and on a team that on paper can challenge for the Cup.. Jay's new contract allowed for the Blues to add Stastny at @$7 mil a #1C via UFA because he gave the team a discount.. Steen and others also gave discounts as it seems Blues are building a TEAM concept.

Toronto seems like its an every man for himself concept because the more Dion gets the less cap there is for others. Jay Bow at $5.4 mil verses Dion at $7 mil gives Blues +$1.6 mil extra cap space to assemble a competitive team.

I was going to respond to this but someone beat me to it. Here you go:

Oh yes, I'm sure this is exactly what happened.

How will a greedy player like Stastny fit in with the rest of this charitable bunch? Must be tough walking into a room full of guys you stole money from.

Yup. Hard to see how this contract fits in with the TEAM concept Mess mentioned.

 

[Morbo]

We should have moved a 1st and 2 prospects for J-Bo then risk him walking as a UFA to a contender when he wants no part of the NHL's biggest market?

what?

 

[Jack Bauer]

Perhaps that contributes to locker room strife with Phaneuf and the Leafs?

I'm sure that in the confines of an NHL locker room the only reason it matters at all is to decide who is buying dinner.

And if it did matter wouldn't Kessel then be the problem? Or Clarkson? What about Lupul when he's struggling?

The NHL CBA is designed to essentially give the majority of the money to players between the ages of 25-35 or so during UFA years. Of course players like Phaneuf and Subban are going to have big deals compared to others signed under the past CBA, put Doughty and Keith on the market and see what they command, it's above $10 mil per.

 

[Cap'n Flavour]

Well thank you for the link. Was that so hard? Is this the question in question?

Was it so hard to read my original post that you quoted? I didn't think so, but oh well. That is one of the questions, but I also asked how one should value contracts of current top 10 dmen who were signed off of their ELC or a short bridge. Is Hedman worth double his actual contract of 4 (8 per, then), or more or less? Is McDonagh worth 9.4? Or should we just never compare contracts unless they were signed in nearly identical circumstances?

If so, the my answer to the first question is no. I would add that Dion and his agent also con't consider him to be top 10 and probably no-one else does either. If Dion was considered a top 10 d-man (the way Subban is) then he would have gotten more like 9 million a year (like Subban did).

As far as Letang goes, I don't know, I haven't really thought about it. Why do you ask?

I ask about Letang because he was signed as a pending UFA just like Dion and to a very similar contract. So either he's not a top 10 D - or wasn't considered one at the time - or his contract is a fair marker for what top 10 UFA dmen are worth.

For what it's worth, Letang finished 7th (behind retired Lidstrom) in a 2012 top defenseman poll. He had a very good 12-13 season before being re-signed in the summer of 2013. Phaneuf finished 25th in that same poll. You can move Doughty, Keith and Hedman ahead of him and he's still top 10.

 

[Jack Bauer]

what?

J-Bo was not a UFA when he went to St. Louis.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Good team players sometimes put the team in front of their own interests and sometimes give personal discounts in order to allow for management to build more competitive teams around them by leaving cap space available for others.

Jay Bow knows he is a great position on a competitive team now paired with Pietrangelo and on a team that on paper can challenge for the Cup.. Jay's new contract allowed for the Blues to add Stastny at @$7 mil a #1C via UFA because he gave the team a discount.. Steen and others also gave discounts as it seems Blues are building a TEAM concept.

Toronto seems like its an every man for himself concept because the more Dion gets the less cap there is for others. Jay Bow at $5.4 mil verses Dion at $7 mil gives Blues +$1.6 mil extra cap space to assemble a competitive team.

LOL. You don't really believe the stuff you spew, do you?

 

[Jack Bauer]

Or should we just never compare contracts unless they were signed in nearly identical circumstances?



.

Honestly, yes.

Subban a year from UFA instead of 2 likely gets an extra mil.

Subban signed 2 years ago likely gets a Keith kind of deal around a $6 mil cap hit.

Comparing contracts to find out who is a better player is pointless without knowing the context of the contracts you're comparing or the cap situation of the team signing the deal.

 

[crump]

Please take the time to read this on Phaneuf, QoC, QoT etc.

http://hockey-graphs.com/2014/01/06...-players-stats-toronto-maple-leafs-d-edition/

You don't have to agree with it, but its why everyone shouldn't overstate Quality of Competition, (Phaneuf had high Quality of Teammates)

and Also, it suggests that against average competition Phaneuf makes them above average.

But take the time to read it for yourselves, you might be shocked when you see the results. Its written by one of the more stats-savey guys around.

Cheers.

Wrong colours. Is this legit?