The Advanced Stats Thread

Tiranis

Registered User
Jun 10, 2009
23,097
28
Toronto, ON
And that's magical spin on numbers that people become weary of when people start in with new stats....

77 mins without his brother...

6 games worth of mins without his brother!

or is actually...

56 secs/game...

Same thing. but it isn't.

And yet you look at the possession stats for those minutes where they're apart and they make a surprising amount of sense. Besides, this was an extreme case. Most players don't spend more than 70% of their time with their most common line mate.

(Besides, the great thing about all this is that we can look at their stats over the past 7 years.)
 

Verviticus

Registered User
Jul 23, 2010
12,664
592
the takeaway here is that there are edge cases for everything. jason blake scored 40 goals one year. that doesn't mean everyone walks around saying "uh, take goals with a grain of salt. they're use for something but need context"
 

Verviticus

Registered User
Jul 23, 2010
12,664
592
his numbers are better and i combine that with the thirty seconds a month i spend watching hockey games to form an overall conclusion
 

Mr. Canucklehead

Kitimat Canuck
Dec 14, 2002
40,422
30,985
Kitimat, BC
his numbers are better and i combine that with the thirty seconds a month i spend watching hockey games to form an overall conclusion

Here's a question (sorry to be a pest) is there a site that would breakdown Sbisa's numbers when paired with Bieksa, vs. his numbers when paired with other partners? And whether those other partners so an increase, decrease, or a negligible difference in their own average numbers vs. when they were paired with Sbisa?
 

Scurr

Registered User
Jun 25, 2009
12,115
12
Whalley
Here's a question (sorry to be a pest) is there a site that would breakdown Sbisa's numbers when paired with Bieksa, vs. his numbers when paired with other partners? And whether those other partners so an increase, decrease, or a negligible difference in their own average numbers vs. when they were paired with Sbisa?

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=992&withagainst=true&season=2014-15&sit=5v5

Sbisa's corsi number's don't scream terrible... so you'll want to look into goals_for_percentage (GF%) next.

Dorsett's corsi number this season vs his career still sticks out to me.
 

Drop the Sopel

Registered User
May 4, 2007
18,325
59
calgary
his numbers are better and i combine that with the thirty seconds a month i spend watching hockey games to form an overall conclusion

Are his numbers appreciably better, considering he gets fewer defensive zone draws? I don't see the case to be made for Bieksa here, based on advanced stats. What numbers are you looking at that shows separation between these guys?
 

WTG

December 5th
Jan 11, 2015
23,834
7,843
West Coast
Stanton wasn't a regular this season.

But in any case FA60
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...&teamid=29&type=fenwick&sort=A60&sortdir=DESC

Shots against 60
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...50&teamid=29&type=shots&sort=A60&sortdir=DESC

Goals against 60
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...50&teamid=29&type=goals&sort=A60&sortdir=DESC


Also as you can see that at all those stats Bieksa ranks higher than him. You can assume it's Sbisa dragging down Bieksa rather than the other way around. In fact Bieksa is still rather effective at getting his shots through.
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...00&teamid=29&type=shots&sort=F60&sortdir=DESC
 

The Jesus*

Guest
Stanton wasn't a regular this season.

But in any case FA60
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...&teamid=29&type=fenwick&sort=A60&sortdir=DESC

Shots against 60
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...50&teamid=29&type=shots&sort=A60&sortdir=DESC

Goals against 60
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...50&teamid=29&type=goals&sort=A60&sortdir=DESC


Also as you can see that at all those stats Bieksa ranks higher than him. You can assume it's Sbisa dragging down Bieksa rather than the other way around. In fact Bieksa is still rather effective at getting his shots through.
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...00&teamid=29&type=shots&sort=F60&sortdir=DESC

As a strong Bieksa supporter, I'm glad the numbers back up what I perceive on the ice.

I can't believe our Potato Head GM signed this guy for 3 more years just because he's under some delusional idea that he's "gritty". I mean, I hate the Dorsett signing a lot more, but this one is bad too. Dark clouds on the horizon, boys.
 

Drop the Sopel

Registered User
May 4, 2007
18,325
59
calgary
Also as you can see that at all those stats Bieksa ranks higher than him.

Bieksa's possession stats look similar to Sbisa's - though Sbisa was used in more defensive zone faceoffs.

Bieksa has played like a trainwreck before, long before he ever played with Sbisa. If that wasn't the case, I would cut him some slack.
 

WTG

December 5th
Jan 11, 2015
23,834
7,843
West Coast
Bieksa's possession stats look similar to Sbisa's - though Sbisa was used in more defensive zone faceoffs.

Bieksa has played like a trainwreck before, long before he ever played with Sbisa. If that wasn't the case, I would cut him some slack.

Yeah Sbisa got used more in the defensive zone but it's only 1.8% so it's not like Sbisa started in the defensive zone that much over Bieksa.

Also when you look at QoC Bieksa is also played against more difficult competition and ranked ahead of Sbisa again in all those categories mentioned in my previous post.
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67


We can also take Sbisa's past 4 year where he played on a very good ducks team and see that he still has bad advanced stats.
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...nse&minutes=1000&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

This isn't something that is unique to this season playing with Bieksa. In fact over the past 4 years where he played in anaheim Bieksa is most likely his best partner.


If I'd have to guess it's most definitely Sbisa dragging down Bieksa rather than the other way around. If we are looking at the evidence.
 

The Jesus*

Guest
Bieksa's numbers are awful. What do you perceive on the ice?

That Bieksa is being dragged down by Sbisa. When you have no chemistry with a guy, a guy who is just terrible, it brings your game down. Defense is all about the pair and working as a unit, and Sbisa is a boat anchor.

If Bieksa was put back with Hammer, he'd be just fine. That's my opinion.
 

Drop the Sopel

Registered User
May 4, 2007
18,325
59
calgary
If I'd have to guess it's most definitely Sbisa dragging down Bieksa rather than the other way around. If we are looking at the evidence.

But their numbers are very similar. Don't know if we can draw a conclusion with numbers that close.

Based on the eye test, it looks like they drag each other down. There were a couple playoff games where Bieksa didn't even look like a competent AHL defenseman, let alone a decent bottom pairing NHL defender.

I'm also not so sure it helps an individuals possession metrics that much playing on a good team, but with below average teammates at the bottom end of a roster. There are a lot of poor possession 4th liners and bottom pairing dmen on great teams...

I'm trying to find a silver lining in Bieksa's season that makes him a salvageable player at this point. Don't see any signs of that, either from watching him or looking a the numbers. For all the flak Sbisa got this season, Bieksa was a much bigger disappointment.
 

Drop the Sopel

Registered User
May 4, 2007
18,325
59
calgary
That Bieksa is being dragged down by Sbisa.

If Bieksa was put back with Hammer, he'd be just fine. That's my opinion.

Okay, but have any numbers posted in this thread backed up this assertion? I haven't seen any yet.

Sbisa also looked better with Hamhuis than he did with Bieksa too remember. That says more about Hamhuis than either of the bumbling brothers.
 

The Jesus*

Guest
But their numbers are very similar. Don't know if we can draw a conclusion with numbers that close.

Based on the eye test, it looks like they drag each other down. There were a couple playoff games where Bieksa didn't even look like a competent AHL defenseman, let alone a decent bottom pairing NHL defender.

I'm also not so sure it helps an individuals possession metrics that much playing on a good team, but with below average teammates at the bottom end of a roster. There are a lot of poor possession 4th liners and bottom pairing dmen on great teams...

I'm trying to find a silver lining in Bieksa's season that makes him a salvageable player at this point. Don't see any signs of that, either from watching him or looking a the numbers. For all the flak Sbisa got this season, Bieksa was a much bigger disappointment.

100% disagree. Fan bashing of Bieksa is out of control, and I'm convinced it's adherence to group dynamics more than individual assessments. Bieksa isn't that bad at all. He's prone to the odd brain fart, but he's always done that. Even during his prime. Sbisa is the problem on that pair. Put Juice with Hammer, and his game would improve tenfold.

I think it's just mass hysterics. Couple guys in a corner clapping then everyone starts clapping.
 

WTG

December 5th
Jan 11, 2015
23,834
7,843
West Coast
But their numbers are very similar. Don't know if we can draw a conclusion with numbers that close.

Based on the eye test, it looks like they drag each other down. There were a couple playoff games where Bieksa didn't even look like a competent AHL defenseman, let alone a decent bottom pairing NHL defender.

I'm also not so sure it helps an individuals possession metrics that much playing on a good team, but with below average teammates at the bottom end of a roster. There are a lot of poor possession 4th liners and bottom pairing dmen on great teams...

I'm trying to find a silver lining in Bieksa's season that makes him a salvageable player at this point. Don't see any signs of that, either from watching him or looking a the numbers. For all the flak Sbisa got this season, Bieksa was a much bigger disappointment.

Bieksa has been a disappointment. But at least his contract runs out next year.

Sbisa got resigned + pay raise. I'd be much more critical of the Sbisa signing than I am of a older player declining.

I mean looking at his overall advanced stats in a more digestible format you can draw the conclusion that Bieksa is terrible in his own zone.
8kZLFOu.png


But as you can see he still generates offensive at a top 2 level.

Then you look at Sbisa where the only positive thing he has going for him is that he's a bottom pairing defenseman when it comes to shots in which case Bieksa is the one that's boosting those stats.

v3SiPKl.png




It becomes even worse when you look at who Sbisa has been paired with.
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=992&withagainst=true&season=2014-15&sit=5v5

Top players played with:
Dorsett ( 313:56) (CF% 44.9)
Vrbata ( 297:14) (CF% 52.8)
D. Sedin ( 296:57) (CF% 52.8)
H. Sedin ( 296:35) (CF% 53.2)

out of the top 4 only 3 of the players he's paired with are possession drivers. This is one of the only reasons his advanced stats actually look like they are bottom pairing level.
 

Drop the Sopel

Registered User
May 4, 2007
18,325
59
calgary
100% disagree. Fan bashing of Bieksa is out of control, and I'm convinced it's adherence to group dynamics more than individual assessments. Bieksa isn't that bad at all. He's prone to the odd brain fart, but he's always done that. Even during his prime. Sbisa is the problem on that pair. Put Juice with Hammer, and his game would improve tenfold.

I think it's just mass hysterics. Couple guys in a corner clapping then everyone starts clapping.

I actually think Bieksa was worse than how he's been portrayed this season, and that he should have received more criticism in relation to a bottom pairing guy getting bottom pairing money in Sbisa.

The numbers seem to back up just how putrid Bieksa was. By the end of the season, he didn't even resemble an NHL player.
 

The Jesus*

Guest
I actually think Bieksa was worse than how he's been portrayed this season, and that he should have received more criticism in relation to a bottom pairing guy getting bottom pairing money in Sbisa.

The numbers seem to back up just how putrid Bieksa was. By the end of the season, he didn't even resemble an NHL player.

It's a pair. Your partner moves into the corner, you have to adjust. Your partner goes here, you go there. Your partner goes behind the net, you adjust. Everywhere your partner goes, you need to move relative him. And vice versa. If you get the puck, your partner needs to be somewhere that you have an exit strategy if the forecheck is bearing down. It's a dynamic, fluid coupling. Bieksa was coupled with Sbisa, arguably the worst defenseman at defense we've had since Gragnani.

I dont think it's fair to throw Bieksa under the bus. Put him back with Hammer, and if he still sucks then sure. I'm wrong. But I still have faith in the guy.
 

WTG

December 5th
Jan 11, 2015
23,834
7,843
West Coast
Who were Bieksa's most common linemates? Could his numbers have been propped up as well?

Well I can look.

Over the 2 years where he's been pretty bad last year included.
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=586&withagainst=true&season=2013-15&sit=5v5

Higgins ( 648:47) (CF% 52.2/zone starts 46.2%) (apart CF% 49.8)
H. Sedin ( 629:37) (CF% 55.1/zone starts 55.2%) (apart CF% 54.7)
D. Sedin ( 613:19) (CF% 53.8/zone starts 56.1%) (apart CF% 55.8)
Hansen ( 575:39) (CF% 50.6/zone starts 48.6%) (apart CF% 49.7)

Bieksa has made players around him better. Sbisa has done the opposite.
 

DennisReynolds

the implication
Dec 11, 2011
5,269
0
I had some time on my hands so I was thinking about tracking some stats like opposition chance per giveaway for defencemen or something like that for this season. I don't think any sites have a similar stat or I can't find any.

Anyone have any suggestions on what I should track on how I sohuld go on about tracking it? I have some general idea but I was wondering if any of you have some tips.

http://gfycat.com/ForkedDismalDormouse

These kinds of plays are the ones I was thinking about tracking.
 

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