The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VII: An Ode to the Sanity of Silverfish

[Irishguy42]

Hey that's my saying.

There's a new sheriff in town.



























Let me know when you find them.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Inside the war room with Tom Dundon and the Carolina...

There are teams that have expressed interest in Justin Faulk, who has two years left on his current deal with a $4.83 million annual cap hit. Dundon wonders about assets on another Eastern Conference team that is in full rebuild mode and has a handful of restricted free agents that might become part of a deal moving forward.

The wink, wink, nudge, nudge here is pretty obvious. So what do y'all think about Faulk? He's very good analytically, but did Darling really f*** him over this year? Highest xFsv% and worst deltaSv% on the Canes. I'd assume'd be a flippable asset in some form of a three-way deal, and IMO, he's better than Shattenkirk.

Now that I got that out of the way: don't trade Kevin Hayes.

 

[silverfish]

Inside the war room with Tom Dundon and the Carolina...



The wink, wink, nudge, nudge here is pretty obvious. So what do y'all think about Faulk? He's very good analytically, but did Darling really **** him over this year? Highest xFsv% and worst deltaSv% on the Canes. I'd assume'd be a flippable asset in some form of a three-way deal, and IMO, he's better than Shattenkirk.

Now that I got that out of the way: don't trade Kevin Hayes.

If the plan is to be competitive the next two seasons, by all means. If the plan is to suck for the next three seasons, then there is no point.

Or, we could do some real smart shit. Trade for him at full cap hit, then ship him somewhere else at 50%. Make back what we lost ++. Actually it doesn't even need to be that convuluted. Just be the third team in a deal where we eat the cap for assets a la Vegas and Brassard.

 

[Mac n Gs]

If the plan is to be competitive the next two seasons, by all means. If the plan is to suck for the next three seasons, then there is no point.

Or, we could do some real smart ****. Trade for him at full cap hit, then ship him somewhere else at 50%. Make back what we lost ++.

So, Edmonton?

Even if we keep Hayes and Skjei, we're gonna be bad. The depth just isn't there and the defense is too raw. We literally don't have to move anyone, and by logic of development and taking strides under a new coach, this team will be better after the Christmas break leading into next season. I said they'll be similar to Arizona, and I'm sticking to it. If it means having another lotto pick and then being primed to be competitive again the following season (and having a ton of cap space to sign a premier FA), then I'll deal with it.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I’d imagine they would trade Faulk once they get him

Toronto and Edmonton jump out. 1st rounder and young forward prospect from them

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

I’d imagine they would trade Faulk once they get him

Toronto and Edmonton jump out. 1st rounder and young forward prospect from them

I think Chicago was interested in Faulk a few weeks ago too, but I could be misremembering if it was speculation or an actual rumor

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I think Chicago was interested in Faulk a few weeks ago too, but I could be misremembering if it was speculation or an actual rumor

I’d be asking for DeBrincat from them

 

[Ghost of jas]

So, Edmonton?

Even if we keep Hayes and Skjei, we're gonna be bad. The depth just isn't there and the defense is too raw. We literally don't have to move anyone, and by logic of development and taking strides under a new coach, this team will be better after the Christmas break leading into next season. I said they'll be similar to Arizona, and I'm sticking to it. If it means having another lotto pick and then being primed to be competitive again the following season (and having a ton of cap space to sign a premier FA), then I'll deal with it.

That would still make them one of the three worst teams in the league.

 

[Mac n Gs]

That would still make them one of the three worst teams in the league.

I know, read the next sentence

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

I’d be asking for DeBrincat from them

DeBrincat and Saad for Zuccarello and Faulk

 

[silverfish]

I'm really disappointed that we are interested in Grabner. My hypothesis is that of really any player in the organization, he had the largest benefit of playing for AV. Moving to NJ and being essentially uesless kind of proves that, though sample warning and all.

Finally have last season scraped... how many of Grabner's 27 goals last year do you guys think were rush shots (I think the 'standard' for this is any shot attempt that occurs 10 seconds after the previous recorded event is in the neutral or defensive zone).

Spoiler

9

Admittedly, less than I anticipated. I also I manually counted this, so it's probably wrong.

 

[Leetch3]

i'll believe we have interest in bringing him back when the team meets with. the media said we were going after tavares too

 

[silverfish]

This is such a gut-wrenching quote from Clarke to read: https://nypost.com/2018/06/27/rangers-have-taken-the-european-route-in-recent-drafts/

“But we went into last year’s draft having a pretty good idea where we’d be going on a rebuild and the type of individuals we were looking for in that context. We said it last year and it’s true: Lias’ leadership and character were major factors for us, and maybe characteristics in which we were a little bit lacking.”

This team hasn't had a 70 point skater season since 2012. We're rebuilding. You have the 7OA pick. And you zero in on character and leadership.

f*** right off. Maybe next time zero in on the ability to put the puck in the f***ing net.

 

[nyr__1994]

This is such a gut-wrenching quote from Clarke to read: https://nypost.com/2018/06/27/rangers-have-taken-the-european-route-in-recent-drafts/

“But we went into last year’s draft having a pretty good idea where we’d be going on a rebuild and the type of individuals we were looking for in that context. We said it last year and it’s true: Lias’ leadership and character were major factors for us, and maybe characteristics in which we were a little bit lacking.”

This team hasn't had a 70 point skater season since 2012. We're rebuilding. You have the 7OA pick. And you zero in on character and leadership.

**** right off. Maybe next time zero in on the ability to put the puck in the ****ing net.

I interpreted this a little differently. Instead of we went into the draft looking the highest character and best leader, it was more along the lines of Middlestadt and Andersson were really close in our on-ice evaluation and his character and leadership was what pushed him ahead on our draft list....

 

[silverfish]

Leo Komarov is terrible. We're gearing up to sign him for more than 1 year because character.

Honestly. Jim Sullivan needs to be fired. Literally about to email this dude a screenshot of Komarov's CORSICA page and the letter y.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Leo Komarov is terrible. We're gearing up to sign him for more than 1 year because character.

Honestly. Jim Sullivan needs to be fired. Literally about to email this dude a screenshot of Komarov's CORSICA page and the letter y.

I would go out on a limb and say Sullivan probably has very little say in roster decisions.

The team also seems to be using their own quantifiable data. I hoping with Quinn coming in and being an advocate for the use of this stuff, they build a staff

but I'm not holding my breath

 

[silverfish]

I would go out on a limb and say Sullivan probably has very little say in roster decisions.

The team also seems to be using their own quantifiable data. I hoping with Quinn coming in and being an advocate for the use of this stuff, they build a staff

but I'm not holding my breath

Komarov must lead the league in NO SHOTS

 

[Irishguy42]

This is such a gut-wrenching quote from Clarke to read: https://nypost.com/2018/06/27/rangers-have-taken-the-european-route-in-recent-drafts/

“But we went into last year’s draft having a pretty good idea where we’d be going on a rebuild and the type of individuals we were looking for in that context. We said it last year and it’s true: Lias’ leadership and character were major factors for us, and maybe characteristics in which we were a little bit lacking.”

This team hasn't had a 70 point skater season since 2012. We're rebuilding. You have the 7OA pick. And you zero in on character and leadership.

**** right off. Maybe next time zero in on the ability to put the puck in the ****ing net.

In the context of Andersson vs Middelstadt, they believed them to be of equal skill, and Lias' "intangibles" was the tiebreaker. You conveniently missed quoting the part where they said they were "even steven" literally right before the paragraph you quoted.

If you had the choice between two players who you perceive to have equal skill, and one had leadship qualities, which would you take?

This is literally not a intangibles vs skill thing.

 

[silverfish]

In the context of Andersson vs Middelstadt, they believed them to be of equal skill, and Lias' "intangibles" was the tiebreaker. You conveniently missed quoting the part where they said they were "even steven" literally right before the paragraph you quoted.

If you had the choice between two players who you perceive to have equal skill, and one had leadship qualities, which would you take?

This is literally not a intangibles vs skill thing.

Yeah I conveniently forgot to quote the part of the quote that is worse than the part I quoted.

If you watch Andersson and Mittelstadt and think they are even in terms of hockey-skill... well, I don't know what to tell you, well, IMO.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I'm not offended by Clark but as I mentioned last week, I won't be upset when he retires and Bobrov (presumably) takes over

Bobrov has found some real (potential) gems in Europe the last couple years.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

I'm not offended by Clark but as I mentioned last week, I won't be upset when he retires and Bobrov (presumably) takes over

Bobrov has found some real (potential) gems in Europe the last couple years.

I said it a few times post draft, but it feels to me he has some big time sway during the scouting/draft process

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

I said it a few times post draft, but it feels to me he has some big time sway during the scouting/draft process

I think he does as well

He is one of Gorton's guys. Came up together in Boston

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

I think he does as well

He is one of Gorton's guys. Came up together in Boston

In Gordie’s interview post draft it seemed like Bobrov was convincing him to go see games he wasn’t originally planning on attending to see guys that we ended up picking

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

Also, posting this so I don’t forget to read it when I get home/think some of you guys might also be interested in reading this or have already read it:

Pulling the Goalie: Hockey and Investment Implications
Pulling the Goalie: Hockey and Investment Implications by Clifford S. Asness, Aaron Brown :: SSRN

Edit: actually kind of seems like it’s been out here and discussed before

 

[Phnxldr]

Lol at Komarov's -6.7 corsi rel last year.