The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VII: An Ode to the Sanity of Silverfish

[Ghost of jas]

I think the Flyers or Devils are suspect to making the playoffs this coming year. With that said, I see Carolina making it. But I say that a lot and it never happens but holy **** that defense if Darling can make a save then look out.

I'm also not a prophet, so I have no idea.

Neither am I. Could it happen? Of course, but, I wouldn’t feel confident about it. I have this discussion every year. If the Rangers should expect growth out of their young players, shouldn’t that be expected from other teams?

 

[silverfish]

Neither am I. Could it happen? Of course, but, I wouldn’t feel confident about it. I have this discussion every year. If the Rangers should expect growth out of their young players, shouldn’t that be expected from other teams?

Yes. The question then becomes:

1. How much growth?
2. How important is this young player's growth to the success of your team that year?

I don't have an answer for you on either of those questions in regards to the Rangers or any other team in the league.

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

Isn't she also a Rangers fan?

Was her dream to play for the Rangers while growing up in a die hard Ranger family who all were season subscribers and they all walked to the game backwards because walking forward wouldn't be dedicated enough?

 

[Hunter Gathers]

Was her dream to play for the Rangers while growing up in a die hard Ranger family who all were season subscribers and they all walked to the game backwards because walking forward wouldn't be dedicated enough?

They walked upside down actually.

 

[silverfish]

I would've brought Sustr here. His on-ice impacts are blegh but that dude can eat bad usage which would've helped Shattenkirk and Pionk.



We're really just going into next season with this as our defense, huh. For shame.

I wish I could go up to my boss and be like: "Hey, I'm gonna be bad for the next three years but don't worry I might be good in that fourth year" and have her be cool with it.

Also - if Duclair gets the ice time, watch him put up somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 points and everyone credits Torts' "tough-love" meanwhile he just needed the ice time to actually do it. Bookmark this; quote me in April.

 

[DanielBrassard]

As far as the question of competing for a playoff spot, the biggest question mark, maybe even before talent level, is probably the coaching. How much of the Rangers ability to generate high quality scoring chances was because of Vigneault and the way he liked the team to play, and vice versa, how much was he at fault for how porous the defense had become? If the new coach can implement a system that can promote better defensive fundamentals, and perhaps an easier system for the team to play, without the offensive creativity being stifled, who really knows where this team could go? We saw it in Dallas, when they replaced Ruff with Hitchcock, they went from a horrendous defensive team, to a damn good one in the matter of 1 season. So it's not impossible.

 

[sbjnyc]

As far as the question of competing for a playoff spot, the biggest question mark, maybe even before talent level, is probably the coaching. How much of the Rangers ability to generate high quality scoring chances was because of Vigneault and the way he liked the team to play, and vice versa, how much was he at fault for how porous the defense had become? If the new coach can implement a system that can promote better defensive fundamentals, and perhaps an easier system for the team to play, without the offensive creativity being stifled, who really knows where this team could go? We saw it in Dallas, when they replaced Ruff with Hitchcock, they went from a horrendous defensive team, to a damn good one in the matter of 1 season. So it's not impossible.

I've never really thought about the impact of coaching but wouldn't that discount a lot of information from overall player stats? Or are stats tracked by coaching regimes?

 

[silverfish]

I've never really thought about the impact of coaching but wouldn't that discount a lot of information from overall player stats? Or are stats tracked by coaching regimes?

This is why for individuals relative to team or relative to teammates is used and not raw percentages.

 

[sbjnyc]

This is why for individuals relative to team or relative to teammates is used and not raw percentages.

I'm not referring to raw percentages. Player X gets traded and improves his relative performance. Is it because he has new teammates or a new coach?

 

[silverfish]

I'm not referring to raw percentages. Player X gets traded and improves his relative performance. Is it because he has new teammates or a new coach?

Could be both. Could be neither. Could be a whole slew of things.

 

[sbjnyc]

Could be both. Could be neither. Could be a whole slew of things.

I'd have to believe there are a sufficient number of roster/coaching changes over the years that would enable the impact of particular coaches (or even certain intangibles) to be quantified.

 

[silverfish]

I'd have to believe there are a sufficient number of roster/coaching changes over the years that would enable the impact of particular coaches (or even certain intangibles) to be quantified.

I think your results would show you that there is no discernible impact on relative numbers due to a coaching or team change as the input variable.

I could be way off here, that's just my hypothesis.

 

[Doctyl]

Also - if Duclair gets the ice time, watch him put up somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 points and everyone credits Torts' "tough-love" meanwhile he just needed the ice time to actually do it. Bookmark this; quote me in April.

When Buch drops 60 it will be the same story. Quinn is a genius and master at developing players.

All that had to be done was play the f***ing kid.

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

I think your results would show you that there is no discernible impact on relative numbers due to a coaching or team change as the input variable.

I could be way off here, that's just my hypothesis.

Scotty Bowman ?

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

When Buch drops 60 it will be the same story. Quinn is a genius and master at developing players.

All that had to be done was play the ****ing kid.

And if Buch pots less than 60, it will be because AV’s Russian Bias caused John Muckler to ruin Manny Malhotra’s career when he said Manny was only going to be as good as a really good checking center , which Manny ended up only playing over 1000 games in that role. He then laughed at Buch, which will lead to Buch leaving his agent/father @Pavel Buchnevich, changing his and name to John Smith, and denouncing his Russian citizenship to finally remove the Russian Bias.

 

[silverfish]

Made some headway on an xG this week. It's not going to be better than anything else that's out there, but it'll be mine. Post-game chart dumps for next year will, assuming I get this to at least an okay spot, be moved entirely from shot attempts to xG.

 

[Machinehead]

What's the consensus on DeAngelo in here?

 

[silverfish]

What's the consensus on DeAngelo in here?

Need more data. Some encouraging signs, but need more. Don't expect him to put up big points in the NHL tho. I think he'll be that guy that everyone wonders why he never put the offense together.

3RD, PP2 now who may be able to morph into a 2RD.

 

[aufheben]

What's the consensus on DeAngelo in here?

There’s no strong consensus right now. We have to see how he does under Quinn, as well as him [hopefully] getting more than 30-40 games this season.

I'm pretty high on him, though. Pretty obviously the best puck-moving D on the team after Shattenkirk. Mostly curious to see what happens to his entry defense stats not playing in AV's circus anymore. I mean you just can't teach this kind of passing and vision; hopefully the defense on the prevention can, though.

Players all the way to the right are guys like Karlsson, Doughty, Lindholm, Werenski, Gostisbehere, Josi, etc.

 

[1Knee1T]

Probably behind the times here - is it no longer possible to download player data from Corsica?

Edit: Am dumb. Switch "Show" to "All", click "Show CSV", and off we go.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Need more data. Some encouraging signs, but need more. Don't expect him to put up big points in the NHL tho. I think he'll be that guy that everyone wonders why he never put the offense together.

3RD, PP2 now who may be able to morph into a 2RD.

I'd say this is pretty close to my take on ADA, but I'll add that he has the eye test to back him up with great puck skills and skating. I want to see him in a more structured system that provides more support from the forwards, but he definitely has the potential to be a solid offensive top-4 dman.

I still think we're lacking that righty defensive-oriented dman, and it's not someone like Pionk. Keane can be that type of player, but ideally it will be someone with size who can negate physical mismatches like Josh Manson. Y'all are gonna really like Jacob Ragnarsson once you get to see him

 

[silverfish]

I'd say this is pretty close to my take on ADA, but I'll add that he has the eye test to back him up with great puck skills and skating. I want to see him in a more structured system that provides more support from the forwards, but he definitely has the potential to be a solid offensive top-4 dman.

I still think we're lacking that righty defensive-oriented dman, and it's not someone like Pionk. Keane can be that type of player, but ideally it will be someone with size who can negate physical mismatches like Josh Manson. Y'all are gonna really like Jacob Ragnarsson once you get to see him

Should've traded Miller for Manson when we had the chance even though we never had the chance anywhere but my head

BTW the tool has never been run on ADA because his name changed from Anthony to Tony and I am lazy so I removed him from the sample. Deal with it.

 

[Irishguy42]

Will the real Anthony DeAngelo please stand up