The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VII: An Ode to the Sanity of Silverfish

[Oscar Lindberg]

Oh? I just logged on. What have we done now?

Nothing bad haha

Others seem to think the Rangers may have the largest fan base that is into advanced stats

Which may be true, I'm not sure how quantifiable of a thing that is

 

[YoSoyLalo]

Nothing bad haha

Others seem to think the Rangers may have the largest fan base that is into advanced stats

Which may be true, I'm not sure how quantifiable of a thing that is

Rangers fans most advanced

Bruins/Ducks fans most primitive IMO

 

[Irishguy42]

Nothing bad haha

Others seem to think the Rangers may have the largest fan base that is into advanced stats

Which may be true, I'm not sure how quantifiable of a thing that is

I'd believe it.

With all the different major Rangers blogs/groups out there all advocating for advanced stats (except for FullTilt/4EverBlueshirts), with the exposure they have, I could see that thought to be true.

But yeah it's hard to quantify it.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Nothing bad haha

Others seem to think the Rangers may have the largest fan base that is into advanced stats

Which may be true, I'm not sure how quantifiable of a thing that is

We are the best.

 

[silverfish]

I think a lot of it is population based. HFNYR is probably one of the top-5 team boards in terms of user size, I'm guessing. So with that, you'll have people that lean every which way which makes this place equally great and infuriating. Means we have a lot of 'fancystat' people and a lot of people who hate 'fancystats' and everything in between.

Anyway, @LiasAndersson, let's clear up some of your BS from that thread:

Dylan McIlrath > Cam Fowler
Nobody has ever said this. It may have been said in jest. Or, it may have been pointed out that McIlrath was playing better, at the time, which was probably the case depending on some metrics.

Cody Franson is elite and should sign to a multi year deal
Apparently saying that a guy is clearly a good 3RD and could step in for spot-duty at 2RD and should be signed to a league minimum contract == elite. Who knew!

"X, Y players are good because I sorted a chart by lowest/highest Corsi Against/For and their names came up..."
It was probably pointed out that this is a good way to recognize who might be playing well, and who might be playing poorly. I do this a lot as a way to recognize where to begin my analysis of players.

**** like that
No, shit like this.

Hey @East Coast Bias

 

[Mac n Gs]

Machinehead did say some crazy things during the battle of Cam Fowler

You’re also still correct about Franson, and your take on him vs Smith is one of the smartest things you’ve predicted thus far. Even if he can’t skate for shit and I hate his game, the moneypuck argument there was pretty flawless

 

[silverfish]

You’re also still correct about Franson, and your take on him vs Smith is one of the smartest things you’ve predicted thus far. Even if he can’t skate for **** and I hate his game, the moneypuck argument there was pretty flawless

Win some, lose some.

 

[East Coast Bias]

I think a lot of it is population based. HFNYR is probably one of the top-5 team boards in terms of user size, I'm guessing. So with that, you'll have people that lean every which way which makes this place equally great and infuriating. Means we have a lot of 'fancystat' people and a lot of people who hate 'fancystats' and everything in between.

Anyway, @LiasAndersson, let's clear up some of your BS from that thread:

Dylan McIlrath > Cam Fowler
Nobody has ever said this. It may have been said in jest. Or, it may have been pointed out that McIlrath was playing better, at the time, which was probably the case depending on some metrics.

Cody Franson is elite and should sign to a multi year deal
Apparently saying that a guy is clearly a good 3RD and could step in for spot-duty at 2RD and should be signed to a league minimum contract == elite. Who knew!

"X, Y players are good because I sorted a chart by lowest/highest Corsi Against/For and their names came up..."
It was probably pointed out that this is a good way to recognize who might be playing well, and who might be playing poorly. I do this a lot as a way to recognize where to begin my analysis of players.

**** like that
No, **** like this.

Hey @East Coast Bias

Awesome, thank you! I'm signed up

 

[silverfish]

So this is going around:



I think the value is closer than most people would admit. And I think it's a good deal for NYR if ROR was making like $5.5 to $6m AAV and not $7.5m AAV. We can't forget he's only a year older than Hayes.

However, the reason I'm bringing this here is because ROR was terrible this year in terms of EV scoring. His splits are bonk.

P160:
EV: 0.95
PP: 3.87
All: 1.78

Hayes for comparison:
EV: 1.5
PP: 4.32
All: 1.59

*Hayes also played 45 more PK minutes. Take that into account for all situations scoring.

Just something that struck me as odd. This was always Eichel's story, too, until this year, where he had a great EV season.

 

[Irishguy42]

I would love ROR on this team. I think I would do that package.

 

[Mac n Gs]

So this is going around:



I think the value is closer than most people would admit. And I think it's a good deal for NYR if ROR was making like $5.5 to $6m AAV and not $7.5m AAV. We can't forget he's only a year older than Hayes.

However, the reason I'm bringing this here is because ROR was terrible this year in terms of EV scoring. His splits are bonk.

P160:
EV: 0.95
PP: 3.87
All: 1.78

Hayes for comparison:
EV: 1.5
PP: 4.32
All: 1.59

*Hayes also played 45 more PK minutes. Take that into account for all situations scoring.

Just something that struck me as odd. This was always Eichel's story, too, until this year, where he had a great EV season.

ROR admitted he was in a bad place mentally this season because of how toxic losing is in Buffalo.

Dude is a great player, so I wouldn’t be mad about trading for him. I am iffy about his cap hit too.

 

[Harbour Dog]

So this is going around:



I think the value is closer than most people would admit. And I think it's a good deal for NYR if ROR was making like $5.5 to $6m AAV and not $7.5m AAV. We can't forget he's only a year older than Hayes.

However, the reason I'm bringing this here is because ROR was terrible this year in terms of EV scoring. His splits are bonk.

P160:
EV: 0.95
PP: 3.87
All: 1.78

Hayes for comparison:
EV: 1.5
PP: 4.32
All: 1.59

*Hayes also played 45 more PK minutes. Take that into account for all situations scoring.

Just something that struck me as odd. This was always Eichel's story, too, until this year, where he had a great EV season.

I'd probably do this.

I would do everything in my power to get some equivalent package replacing Hayes with Spooner+/Namestnikov+, but in lieu of that, I'd pull the trigger anyway.

Wouldn't like to see Hayes go, but I don't expect ROR's last season to become the norm. Buffalo is a wasteland.

 

[Off Sides]

I don't really like ROR's contract, so I'd vote no.

 

[DanielBrassard]

So this is going around:



I think the value is closer than most people would admit. And I think it's a good deal for NYR if ROR was making like $5.5 to $6m AAV and not $7.5m AAV. We can't forget he's only a year older than Hayes.

However, the reason I'm bringing this here is because ROR was terrible this year in terms of EV scoring. His splits are bonk.

P160:
EV: 0.95
PP: 3.87
All: 1.78

Hayes for comparison:
EV: 1.5
PP: 4.32
All: 1.59

*Hayes also played 45 more PK minutes. Take that into account for all situations scoring.

Just something that struck me as odd. This was always Eichel's story, too, until this year, where he had a great EV season.

The value is probably fair, but I think I would like to see what Hayes can do with better linemates. I still think he has untapped offensive ability.

 

[Irishguy42]

The value is probably fair, but I think I would like to see what Hayes can do with better linemates. I still think he has untapped offensive ability.

You can say the same for ROR

 

[PlamsUnlimited]

Hard no from me. That contract is pretty rough

 

[silverfish]

You can say the same for ROR

If he got some better teammates, some lighter deployment, and keeps up his PP production, he can hit 70 points.

 

[DanielBrassard]

You can say the same for ROR

That's true. Hayes will cost less though, and I wouldn't be surprised if he could hit 55+ points with better linemates and more PP time. I completely understand why you would be in favor of this trade, It's probably in the Rangers favor honestly. It would probably take more than Hayes, a late 1st, and Day who really has no value right now.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Nothing bad haha

Others seem to think the Rangers may have the largest fan base that is into advanced stats

Which may be true, I'm not sure how quantifiable of a thing that is

I think San Jose’s fan base is pretty heavy into advanced stats as well, but that section has died out a bit on HF over the last few years.

I’m really curious to see what you guys think of Washington winning with a ~48% CF%. To me, the most glaring thing is that of the strong Corsi Cup winners of 2012-2016, the most important thing was at least one superstar dominating; not their strong possession numbers. And when it comes to a team like Vegas who lacks a superstar but puts up, solid advanced stats, against a team like Washington who has multiple superstars and weak advanced stats, the superstars reign supreme.

Thoughts?

 

[effen]

That's true. Hayes will cost less though, and I wouldn't be surprised if he could hit 55+ points with better linemates and more PP time. I completely understand why you would be in favor of this trade, It's probably in the Rangers favor honestly. It would probably take more than Hayes, a late 1st, and Day who really has no value right now.

25 teams would pay more than that for ROR. He's so, so, so good.

I'd take him 100 times out of 100. Contract shmontract.

 

[Machinehead]

I think San Jose’s fan base is pretty heavy into advanced stats as well, but that section has died out a bit on HF over the last few years.

I’m really curious to see what you guys think of Washington winning with a ~48% CF%. To me, the most glaring thing is that of the strong Corsi Cup winners of 2012-2016, the most important thing was at least one superstar dominating; not their strong possession numbers. And when it comes to a team like Vegas who lacks a superstar but puts up, solid advanced stats, against a team like Washington who has multiple superstars and weak advanced stats, the superstars reign supreme.

Thoughts?

I had some thoughts on the main board which you saw, but in addition, Micah had a model that predicted the Caps either going to the SCF or winning it, don't remember which.

He used all the conventional stuff, but it was two years of data instead of just this season. This is the second year in a row the Cup was won by a team that normally has great underlying numbers, but didn't the season in question. Maybe there's more to the idea that we should be using bigger samples.

 

[silverfish]

I think San Jose’s fan base is pretty heavy into advanced stats as well, but that section has died out a bit on HF over the last few years.

I’m really curious to see what you guys think of Washington winning with a ~48% CF%. To me, the most glaring thing is that of the strong Corsi Cup winners of 2012-2016, the most important thing was at least one superstar dominating; not their strong possession numbers. And when it comes to a team like Vegas who lacks a superstar but puts up, solid advanced stats, against a team like Washington who has multiple superstars and weak advanced stats, the superstars reign supreme.

Thoughts?

I think I remember running their splits and they saw some improvement in the 2nd half of the season, and were obviously a much better CF% team in the playoffs. What could be a big factor is that the as the season went on, Trotz seemed to realize that Orpik, well, isn't that great. His ice time saw a constant decrease over time, and then adding Kempny at the deadline certainly did not hurt.

 

[silverfish]

ShotPlot

This is cool. Unnecessary for NHL data as we already get the coords there. Could prove useful for leagues that don't supply XY though.

 

[Irishguy42]

ShotPlot

This is cool. Unnecessary for NHL data as we already get the coords there. Could prove useful for leagues that don't supply XY though.

Could use just a simple ability to differentiate between two teams. Whether that's a drop-down menu, or like a "hold down ___ button and click to denote Team Y, and hold down _____ and click to denote Team X"

Pretty quick and easy shot plot though, if you're only doing a single team.

 

[silverfish]

Could use just a simple ability to differentiate between two teams. Whether that's a drop-down menu, or like a "hold down ___ button and click to denote Team Y, and hold down _____ and click to denote Team X"

Pretty quick and easy shot plot though, if you're only doing a single team.

The use case here is prob to just plot one team on each side with just remembering you'll need to mirror in period 2. Makes more sense to do it that way so you have all three periods and can view the whole game rather than two periods on one side and one period on the other.