The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VI: RIP To Our Databases

[silverfish]

You're not alone on this opinion, silverfish.

I find this hard to believe.

 

[aufheben]

I find this hard to believe.

Nope, I've thought the same thing about Skjei.

 

[Mac n Gs]

SSS, but Skjei as a 1D thus far has been impressive. I still disagree with the John Moore argument.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Kreider is this team's best skater, besides Pionk of course, and it's really not up for debate. That dude makes the team go.

I assume you meant Gilmour?

 

[silverfish]

I assume you meant Gilmour?

Nope, I meant Torey Krug.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Nope, I meant Torey Krug.

Ah, of course. Naturally.

 

[Mac n Gs]

So here’s a hypothetical: what would y’all define as progress even if we’re still in a lottery position next season?

Improved underlying numbers and adding kids who project well for 19-20 and beyond?

 

[silverfish]

So here’s a hypothetical: what would y’all define as progress even if we’re still in a lottery position next season?

Improved underlying numbers and adding kids who project well for 19-20 and beyond?

Can the underlying numbers get any worse?

 

[Mac n Gs]

Can the underlying numbers get any worse?

I should’ve clarified, I meant realistically being in the middle of the league for CF% and xGF%, i.e. like the Habs minus the attrocious goaltending

 

[silverfish]

I should’ve clarified, I meant realistically being in the middle of the league for CF% and xGF%, i.e. like the Habs minus the attrocious goaltending

I know, I was just busting balls

I guess it's really all dependent on the direction GMJG decides to take the team. If he sells off Zucc/Spoon/Names/etc... for more futures, then a successful season is the kids showing signs of improvement. If he decides to make hockey-trades and try to compete and turn it around, like he should, then a successful season is making the playoffs and making a run.

All things aside, next season is a failure if AV is behind the bench in October. I don't care if it's only one game.

 

[Mac n Gs]

I know, I was just busting balls

I guess it's really all dependent on the direction GMJG decides to take the team. If he sells off Zucc/Spoon/Names/etc... for more futures, then a successful season is the kids showing signs of improvement. If he decides to make hockey-trades and try to compete and turn it around, like he should, then a successful season is making the playoffs and making a run.

All things aside, next season is a failure if AV is behind the bench in October. I don't care if it's only one game.

Definitely agree re: AV. I still believe he’s getting canned once this season is over.

I’m basically trying to figure out a threshold for what I’ll consider an improvement if we go the futures route, and I may dive into some projections if I get time. Then again, there was outrage when you suggested that Lias should have a floor of 0.5 ppg in the AHL, so maybe not

 

[Bob Richards]

Can the underlying numbers get any worse?

Relative to their league ranking? Probably not.

In terms of sheer awfulness? Buffalo 2013-15?

But I know what you mean.

 

[Machinehead]

I should’ve clarified, I meant realistically being in the middle of the league for CF% and xGF%, i.e. like the Habs minus the attrocious goaltending

If we're in the middle in CF% and xGF%, with Hank, there's no way we end up in a lottery spot.

I'm not sure your hypothetical is possible.

 

[RangerBlues]

So is the roster garbage or the analytics garbage?

 

[Mac n Gs]

If we're in the middle in CF% and xGF%, with Hank, there's no way we end up in a lottery spot.

I'm not sure your hypothetical is possible.

I mean I definitely think they can make the playoffs with some smart moves and how close playoff races are right now (thanks Bettman!)

I’m still expecting one more down year while we’re trying to infuse the next wave of talent. What I’m basically trying to figure out is what would be a good analytics benchmark if we stay on the rebuild route. It’s definitely not 37+ shots against every night

 

[Machinehead]

I mean I definitely think they can make the playoffs with some smart moves and how close playoff races are right now (thanks Bettman!)

I’m still expecting one more down year while we’re trying to infuse the next wave of talent. What I’m basically trying to figure out is what would be a good analytics benchmark if we stay on the rebuild route. It’s definitely not 37+ shots against every night

With our defense on paper, I'd be encouraged in our new coach (potentially) if he gets is around the 20 range.

 

[Machinehead]

So is the roster garbage or the analytics garbage?

The coach is garbage.

 

[Machinehead]

Two things

1)Steve Santini is horrible at hockey

2)Right now I have Doughty, Burns, and Miller for the Norris.

Miller is a dark horse pick with 37 points but he's the best possession D in the NHL and I don't think any defenseman has meant more to their team.

A lot was made of Burns' slow start but he's quietly up to 54 points and is 7th in CF%rel. Why not?

I think Doughty takes it, and finally deserves it. Creeping up towards his career high in points, and there's still nobody in the league with a defensive gear like his. He completely turns off the blueline when he's on.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Oh, Colin Miller had a breakout year? I wonder who’s been calling that one for almost two years now

Called Brett Pesce too.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Is Collin Miller thought of highly outside of the analytics community? Not saying that what the analytics community thinks of him isn't important but I wonder if he's a diamond in the rough.

 

[YoSoyLalo]

Is Collin Miller thought of highly outside of the analytics community? Not saying that what the analytics community thinks of him isn't important but I wonder if he's a diamond in the rough.

I couldn't tell you what his corsi etc is but I think he's pretty beastly just from the eye test. Another young Stralman clone.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Honest question. Do you guys think that if we had the 2014 team now (at the same ages as 2014) we'd have fewer posters thinking it preposterous that Stralman should play with McDonagh like some have suggested and were roundly mocked? And fewer posters that would think that Girardi was a better defenseman? Obviously in this situation Stralman and Girardi at least up to now haven't played for the Bolts. Do you think that acceptance of analytics has grown since then?

 

[YoSoyLalo]

Honest question. Do you guys think that if we had the 2014 team now (at the same ages as 2014) we'd have fewer posters thinking it preposterous that Stralman should play with McDonagh like some have suggested and were roundly mocked? And fewer posters that would think that Girardi was a better defenseman? Obviously in this situation Stralman and Girardi at least up to now haven't played for the Bolts. Do you think that acceptance of analytics has grown since then?

I remember hating corsi etc when i first saw it spring up consistently around here (mayne 2012, 2013 ish), and now I quite like using it.

I would say it's come quite a ways since 2014, particularly league wide, but it's still wayyyyyyyyyy behind a sport like baseball. I mean, people still think +/- is useful.

 

[Bob Richards]

I remember hating corsi etc when i first saw it spring up consistently around here (mayne 2012, 2013 ish), and now I quite like using it.

I would say it's come quite a ways since 2014, particularly league wide, but it's still wayyyyyyyyyy behind a sport like baseball. I mean, people still think +/- is useful.

Won't even front, I was not about corsi when I first started learning about it (also around 2013). I was too lazy to give it a chance therefore it was dumb

I think I really crossed the threshold during the Girardi debates after the 2015 season. You guys have made some really convincing arguments to the point where I actually wanted to look at math again.

 

[silverfish]

Honest question. Do you guys think that if we had the 2014 team now (at the same ages as 2014) we'd have fewer posters thinking it preposterous that Stralman should play with McDonagh like some have suggested and were roundly mocked? And fewer posters that would think that Girardi was a better defenseman? Obviously in this situation Stralman and Girardi at least up to now haven't played for the Bolts. Do you think that acceptance of analytics has grown since then?

The problem with new ideas questioning old beliefs is that people don't generally enjoy admitting they were wrong.

Which is why @Machinehead @Raspewtin and myself fought to the death re: Girardi circa three years ago. I was wrong.