The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VI: RIP To Our Databases

[Machinehead]

You know I touched the Norris once at the MSG Hockey House. Security roasted me, but it was worth it.

If there was one touch I was gonna sneak (and I wouldn't touch the Cup, because I haven't won it) it was that one. I've been obsessed with defensemen since I'm like two years old.

 

[silverfish]

Stepan is 6 away from 50. The Coyotes are ****ing cruising now that they are healthy. If they add Dahlin & stay healthy, they're a playoff bubble team next year.

To keep this on topic, 44 points on the 'Yotes means that Stepan has contributed a point on 26.34% of all Coyotes goals this year.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Stepan is 6 away from 50. The Coyotes are ****ing cruising now that they are healthy. If they add Dahlin & stay healthy, they're a playoff bubble team next year.

To keep this on topic, 44 points on the 'Yotes means that Stepan has contributed a point on 26.34% of all Coyotes goals this year.

And his shooting% still hasn’t fully regressed back to the mean. I miss Stepan.

 

[silverfish]

And his shooting% still hasn’t fully regressed back to the mean. I miss Stepan.

I wonder how many shot assists he has to Max Domi that Domi just choked away because he can't score goals anymore.

60 points and a playoff appearance for Stepan next year?

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

And his shooting% still hasn’t fully regressed back to the mean. I miss Stepan.

Or is this who he is now?

1 season can be defined as an outlier but when its 2 years in a row, it starts to become a pattern.

 

[silverfish]

Or is this who he is now?

1 season can be defined as an outlier but when its 2 years in a row, it starts to become a pattern.

Could be, but if he rebounds in a major way, I also wouldn't be that surprised.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Or is this who he is now?

1 season can be defined as an outlier but when its 2 years in a row, it starts to become a pattern.

His underlying stats have remained pretty consistent, so I don’t think it’s crazy to expect a slight rebound in shooting%. He’s actually shooting at a lower% than last season, so even if he does rebound, I’d say it’s safe to assume it’ll be in the 8-9% range rather than 10-12% range

 

[silverfish]

His underlying stats have remained pretty consistent, so I don’t think it’s crazy to expect a slight rebound in shooting%. He’s actually shooting at a lower% than last season, so even if he does rebound, I’d say it’s safe to assume it’ll be in the 8-9% range rather than 10-12% range

The FA list this year is so barren, we need moneypuck more than ever. Should be targeting guys that are underperforming their xG but still driving play in the right direction. Buy them cheap, and hope for a rebound.

 

[Mac n Gs]

The FA list this year is so barren, we need moneypuck more than ever. Should be targeting guys that are underperforming their xG but still driving play in the right direction. Buy them cheap, and hope for a rebound.

Any ideas of who fits this mold or have you not had the chance to look yet? I know you’ve mentioned Franson and Barberio

 

[silverfish]

Any ideas of who fits this mold or have you not had the chance to look yet? I know you’ve mentioned Franson and Barberio

Haven't had the chance to look. I think Franson and GOATberio would be very solid 7D additions. Should both come in at roughly $800K max. But, we also still have Kampfer signed, because for some reason we needed him on a two-year deal last April?

 

[Irishguy42]

I don't think it's the right move to sign Franson. We have enough defensemen to have a competitive camp and he's not a huge upgrade unless you're just signing him to be a 7D and not a regular. Kampfer already fills that role.

 

[silverfish]

I don't think it's the right move to sign Franson. We have enough defensemen to have a competitive camp and he's not a huge upgrade unless you're just signing him to be a 7D and not a regular. Kampfer already fills that role.

There is such a huge talent gap between Kampfer and Franson.

 

[Irishguy42]

There is such a huge talent gap between Kampfer and Franson.

Wasn't trying to imply there wasn't.

I think the Rangers will go with the young guns+Staal for the Top 6 and then because they already have Kampfer under contract, I don't see them running out to sign another 7D.

Assuming they sign all their young RFA/UFA defensemen, they'll have plenty of guys competing for spots in camp.

Staal, Shattenkirk, Skjei, O'Gara, Pionk, ADA, Gilmour, Sproul, Smith, Bereglazov, maybe Hajek, Bigras, Pedrie, Zboro (unlikely), Day (unlikely), and then Kampfer.

That's a lot of guys whole will be in camp.

And who is realistically going to get a spot out of camp? Skjei, Shattenkirk, and Staal are probably the safe bets. After that,would think Smith. That's four. Then you have 12 other guys (assuming, like I said, that they sigh their UFA/RFA defensemen) for three spots? I would think they would have Kampfer penciled in as their 5th or 7th D, so two spots.

For some reason, I just don't see them running out to get another guy.



But I have been wrong before.

 

[silverfish]

Wasn't trying to imply there wasn't.

I think the Rangers will go with the young guns+Staal for the Top 6 and then because they already have Kampfer under contract, I don't see them running out to sign another 7D.

Assuming they sign all their young RFA/UFA defensemen, they'll have plenty of guys competing for spots in camp.

Staal, Shattenkirk, Skjei, O'Gara, Pionk, ADA, Gilmour, Sproul, Smith, Bereglazov, maybe Hajek, Bigras, Pedrie, Zboro (unlikely), Day (unlikely), and then Kampfer.

That's a lot of guys whole will be in camp.

And who is realistically going to get a spot out of camp? Skjei, Shattenkirk, and Staal are probably the safe bets. After that,would think Smith. That's four. Then you have 12 other guys (assuming, like I said, that they sigh their UFA/RFA defensemen) for three spots? I would think they would have Kampfer penciled in as their 5th or 7th D, so two spots.

For some reason, I just don't see them running out to get another guy.



But I have been wrong before.

I guess it depends on which way the org goes this off-season. Wouldn't surprise me to see them bring in a vet to push the kids, at least.

But what the hell do I know

 

[silverfish]

Assuming the Rangers are trying to compete next year, I would target:

Nash or JvR
Tavares, duh

and then for your moneypuck guys...

Franson or GOATberio
Comeau (if he takes a major paycut from the $2.4m AAV he's racking up right now)
Jussi Jokinen
Paajarvi (actually sporting a positive relTxGF%)
Schaller

Man, the UFA crop this year is ugly.

If they aren't trying to compete, well, then who gives a shit.

 

[Mac n Gs]

Assuming the Rangers are trying to compete next year, I would target:

Nash or JvR
Tavares, duh

and then for your moneypuck guys...

Franson or GOATberio
Comeau (if he takes a major paycut from the $2.4m AAV he's racking up right now)
Jussi Jokinen
Paajarvi (actually sporting a positive relTxGF%)
Schaller

Man, the UFA crop this year is ugly.

If they aren't trying to compete, well, then who gives a ****.

I can see them going after JVR, especially if they can market him as another kid that grew up a Rangers fan. You’re right though, this FA crop blows. I wanted Sceviour, but Florida re-signed him

 

[Harbour Dog]

I wonder how many shot assists he has to Max Domi that Domi just choked away because he can't score goals anymore.

60 points and a playoff appearance for Stepan next year?

60 points maybe, but Arizona aren't a playoff team in the west yet. Healthy or not.

 

[silverfish]

60 points maybe, but Arizona aren't a playoff team in the west yet. Healthy or not.

Sample size alert, but check out their record when they have all three of Raanta, Hjalmarsson, and Chychrun in the lineup. They are a completely different squad now that they're healthy...

 

[Harbour Dog]

I'm aware, seen someone post their numbers with those three in the lineup not long ago.

Sample size is an issue for sure, but not just because of variance. Maintaining a winning record when teams have had a longer look at their healthy group will be much more difficult.

 

[silverfish]

I'm aware, seen someone post their numbers with those three in the lineup not long ago.

Sample size is an issue for sure, but not just because of variance. Maintaining a winning record when teams have had a longer look at their healthy group will be much more difficult.

A million things can happen between now and next season, so yeah, it's irresponsible to say the Coyotes will compete. But they are a different team 2018 vs 2017, that's for sure.

 

[Ghost of jas]

Sample size alert, but check out their record when they have all three of Raanta, Hjalmarsson, and Chychrun in the lineup. They are a completely different squad now that they're healthy...

Awesome...hopefully they’ll overtake the Rangers.

 

[Harbour Dog]

A million things can happen between now and next season, so yeah, it's irresponsible to say the Coyotes will compete. But they are a different team 2018 vs 2017, that's for sure.

Agreed. I hope they do push for the playoffs next year.

Might also help push analytics in hockey a little farther if they did.

 

[silverfish]

Agreed. I hope they do push for the playoffs next year.

Might also help push analytics in hockey a little farther if they did.

There's a bit of a rift between the "mainstream" analytics people and Chayka. Mostly because everything Chayka uses, and Stathletes, are so blackbox.

But, the way I see it, is that it's nice that there's a GM who thinks differently out there. The only thing is, well, we really have no idea what he's thinking.

Some things do align, like the whole Sh% thing when he traded for Panik, even though Panik still can't score to save his life... as well as not selling low on Domi... yet...

 

[Harbour Dog]

There's a bit of a rift between the "mainstream" analytics people and Chayka. Mostly because everything Chayka uses, and Stathletes, are so blackbox.

But, the way I see it, is that it's nice that there's a GM who thinks differently out there. The only thing is, well, we really have no idea what he's thinking.

Some things do align, like the whole Sh% thing when he traded for Panik, even though Panik still can't score to save his life... as well as not selling low on Domi... yet...

Never realized this. Was the analytics revolution in baseball as secretive to begin with as well?

 

[silverfish]

Never realized this. Was the analytics revolution in baseball as secretive to begin with as well?

This is a good question that I don't know the answer to...

@Machinehead ?

It's also a different time... you see some of the public guys who have big reaches on Twitter, or via their website, get hired, and the teams that hire them have them take down their Twitter and their site. I get it. And I can definitely imagine if Sabermetrics in baseball popped up in the age of Twitter, that we'd see something very similar.