Speculation: The 2021 RFA Class is loaded

[Prairie Habs]

I think most would agree that Dubas greatly overpaid for both of those guys given comparable.

Still tough to justify a centre who had multiple Hart trophy votes in his sophomore season making the same amount as Jeff Skinner.

 

[Fatass]

Still tough to justify a centre who had multiple Hart trophy votes in his sophomore season making the same amount as Jeff Skinner.

I’m curious to see which of the young D men sign first, and set that bar: Heiskanen, Hughes, Makar, and Dahlin. I can see Buffalo giving a super big deal to Dahlin, which messes up the other three teams’ negotiating with their guys.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

Assuming they settle for less than they could otherwise make. If Marner makes almost 11M on a 6 year deal EP would be well within his rights to ask for more on a deal that buys out more UFA years. He would be more comparable to Matthews. who only bought out 1 UFA year and still made over 11M.

Kind of doubt players look to the Leafs as a comp of what they should demand. Not a secret what it did to that team. If young players want their team to succeed then theyll either do bridge deals for less(to be able to compete for the cup) and then get a longterm deal with that high aav after.

Still have no idea what Matthews, Marner, and Nylander were thinking. Team could prob have won a cup by now if they didnt sign for what they did. Or at least gotten out of the first round.

I get that McDavid signed a huge contract but Leafs players should have realized they could have had something special(See Tampa) if they didnt max out and prevent the team from adding top talent on D. Especially since all 3 players were added around same time. You dont ruin the teams odds before they even win it. We talk about Kane and Toews making way too much but at least they waited til they won 3 cups. Same goes for other teams. Sid/Geno/Letang didnt handicap the Pens with their deals. And plenty of other examples.

I am guessing others have seen that and wont go that same route. Doesnt mean every player wont around the league, but referring to the Canucks top two guys? I say they wait it out to help their team win it all. Canucks can be a top contender in the West with the Avs the next handful of years if handled right.

Like it was mentioned, a lot of money will be cleared next year and the following. The main reason they chose not to buyout those contracts or even trade them and lose top prospects. They had a good run this year yet still not going all in because of it. Good to see teams learning, unlike what the Oilers did after making the playoffs once.

Canucks are on their way imo.

 

[Deadly Dogma]

Dem offer sheets like what we're seeing with the Lightning! Am I right bois?


According to HF the whole NHL be like

man offer sheets are paying rent in your head lol
if you guys had 1 that was worth being offersheeted they would have been. If Point was unsigned I could see a team offersheeting him. But for they guys you have available, why overpay for an average RFA?

 

[Djp]

Pettersson, Makar, Q. Hughes, Dahlin, Heiskanen, Svechnikov, Kotkaniemi, B. Tkachuk, Kaprizov and Sorokin are all first time RFAs.

Laine is coming off his bridge deal as well.

Vrana, Sanheim, and Fiala are also getting new deals.

Really interested to see what happens next summer with the flat cap.

Teams should have more cap space with UFAs and Expansion draft taking some pkayers

Coming off ELCs you will likely see more 2-3 yr bridges.

 

[dkollidas]

Pettersson, Makar, Q. Hughes, Dahlin, Heiskanen, Svechnikov, Kotkaniemi, B. Tkachuk, Kaprizov and Sorokin are all first time RFAs.

Laine is coming off his bridge deal as well.

Vrana, Sanheim, and Fiala are also getting new deals.

Really interested to see what happens next summer with the flat cap.

I’m going to assume a lot of qualifying offers, arbitration cases and 1-2yr deals as the cap stays flat.

 

[Leafs87]

Last years was much the same

 

[LeafChief]

Not one of these players will sign an offer sheet. If no one is offer-sheeting Tampa's guys right now, offer sheets aren't happening.

Also, Kotkaniemi definitely has potential and looked good in a short burst in the playoffs but including him on this list is a bit of a reach.

 

[Mr Positive]

Also Yamamoto in Edmonton

Potentially Bear if we bridge him 1 year

 

[Cogburn]

RIP Vancouver.

Uhhh.....know something about an earthquake or something we don't? Or did you hear about the snow we received in higher elevations and know enough local driving habits to know there is only like an 8% survival rate when you drive in snow here (oddly specific, I know)?

RFAs? We're fine.

You also have to include replacements for pearson, Sutter, and Benn if you aren't signing them.

Those would all cost money against the cap though, even if they're on ELCs. If you have 20M coming off the cap and spend 20M on raises you still have to find another 3M to cover those 3 replacements.

Those player are already looking at being replaced internally. Losing Pearson could sting, but PodHog is likely filling out our top six spots in the near future. Ferland on the LTIR, Pearson, Benn, Sutter and Baertschi is 15+ million, and 6 for Edler. Edler being resigned should be at a lower rate than he has too. Buying out Eriksson becomes a lot more affordable too, and given who we are likely to expose, there is a chance Roussel (probably) or Beagle or Myers (doubltful he is exposed, but we can hope) or even Holtby (the whole reason we brought him in on a 2 year deal was to expose him) could all be taken as well. The costs for Pettersson and Hughes will be high, very high, but we would need a Rocket Richard and a Norris win if anyone thinks their both getting more then 10 a season. 5 for Demko and Gaudette isn't obscene either. We buy out Eriksson (2 million in savings), and we're in fine shape.

this is just my opinion but if EP and his camp believe him to be one of the top players in the league or be on track to become one, they’ll never sign a 7 year deal for anything north of what the highest paid guys are making

makes no sense for any RFA or UFA for that matter to take less for long term with the current state of the market, they’ll all look for 2-4 year deals and cash in big once the cap starts rising again

I think we are more likely to see bridge contracts, until the end of the predicted flat cap. There will still a monster cap hit I'm sure, but their development won't stop in 2 years if they sign until the cap goes up either.

Your numbers seem low tbh (though you could definitely be right due to the covid cap squeeze)

Glad to see you factor in Edler ~ feel many Canuck fans overlook that he's still a top 4 guy, and as such, will need to be re-upped or replaced (possibly from within, though that seems quite optimistic to me. Rathbone/Juolevi are still quite unproven)

Long story short, I think it'll be tight. Would certainly help matters if Seattle takes even just a medium sized salary like Roussel

Edler will be back. He's a lifer here, and we'd be a fool if we think we can find as effective a player for what we will get him for.

If Seattle takes Roussel, power to everyone involved, but I feel Holtby will be the choice, even if another deal is needed to confirm that selection.

 

[thefutures]

All GMs hold each others hands and go on tandem bicycle rides so don't expect excitement. Some overpayments some underpayments and a whole lot of nothing against the grain.

 

[bobholly39]

Probably going to be similar to how it was this year...unremarkable and ho-hum... no offer sheets. A lot of penny pinching.

There isn't a single RFA player available this year whose worth 4 1st round picks as an offer sheet. Next year there are at least 5 - possibly up to 7. It's not the same thing.

I still maintain Matthews 100% would have gotten an offer sheet if he hadn't signed within the season 2 years ago. Guys like Dahlin, EP, Hughes, Dahlin etc will all be comparable. They 100% get top consideration for offer sheets.

 

[serp]

There isn't a single RFA player available this year whose worth 4 1st round picks as an offer sheet. Next year there are at least 5 - possibly up to 7. It's not the same thing.

I still maintain Matthews 100% would have gotten an offer sheet if he hadn't signed within the season 2 years ago. Guys like Dahlin, EP, Hughes, Dahlin etc will all be comparable. They 100% get top consideration for offer sheets.

I don't think there's going to be to all that much capspace around the league for offer sheets . Also as far as i can see every team with a high profile RFA next season has the capspace to re-sign those players even at an overpay .

 

[bobholly39]

I don't think there's going to be to all that much capspace around the league for offer sheets . Also as far as i can see every team with a high profile RFA next season has the capspace to re-sign those players even at an overpay .

I said all along Leafs would be insane to let Matthews make it to RFA, and they didn't. Because as much as people complain about his ~11M$ salary - they'd have been competing with 13M$+ offers in the summer. I think he was the only player at such high a risk to let reach RFA (Point's stock has risen a ton since, but wasn't quite as high yet). I think all of Dahlin, EP, Makar, Hughes, EP and possibly Svech and maybe Laine could be in similar position - at least the first 5. Those teams would be absolutely insane to wait that long to re-sign them.

So - I'd tend to agree with you that the most likely scenario is they all re-sign their guys with plenty of time to spare, and likely even if they have to give out pretty generous contracts they find the room for.

But if they do make it to RFA status - even if cap space around the league might appear limited, I think teams find a way for players of that caliber. That's a franchise altering level player.

 

[serp]

I said all along Leafs would be insane to let Matthews make it to RFA, and they didn't. Because as much as people complain about his ~11M$ salary - they'd have been competing with 13M$+ offers in the summer. I think he was the only player at such high a risk to let reach RFA (Point's stock has risen a ton since, but wasn't quite as high yet). I think all of Dahlin, EP, Makar, Hughes, EP and possibly Svech and maybe Laine could be in similar position - at least the first 5. Those teams would be absolutely insane to wait that long to re-sign them.

So - I'd tend to agree with you that the most likely scenario is they all re-sign their guys with plenty of time to spare, and likely even if they have to give out pretty generous contracts they find the room for.

But if they do make it to RFA status - even if cap space around the league might appear limited, I think teams find a way for players of that caliber. That's a franchise altering level player.

Don't get your hopes up. Not in COVID economy times. Hell this rarely happened before COVID .

 

[BAM]

Assuming they settle for less than they could otherwise make. If Marner makes almost 11M on a 6 year deal EP would be well within his rights to ask for more on a deal that buys out more UFA years. He would be more comparable to Matthews. who only bought out 1 UFA year and still made over 11M.

EP isn't comparable to Matthews at all. Here are some of the top young C's in the league and their ELC production.

D+ 1
McDavid - 48 points in 45 games, 1.07 ppg
Matthews - 69 points in 82 games, 0.84 ppg
Mackinnon - 63 points in 82 games, 0.77 ppg
LD - 9 points in 37 games, 0.24 ppg
Eichel - 56 points in 81 games, 0.69 ppg
EP - Not in NHL

D+ 2
McDavid - 100 points in 82 games, 1.22 ppg
Matthews - 63 points in 62 games, 1.02 ppg
Mackinnon - 38 points in 64 games, 0.59 ppg
LD - 51 points in 72 games, 0.71 ppg
Eichel - 57 points in 61 games, 0.93 ppg
EP - 66 points in 71 games, 0.93 ppg

D+3

McDavid - 108 points in 82 games, 1.32 ppg
Matthews - 73 points in 68 games, 1.07 ppg
Mackinnon - 52 points in 72 games, 0.72 ppg
LD - 77 points in 82 games, 0.94 ppg (first season playing mainly with McDavid)
Eichel - 64 points in 67 games, 0.96 ppg
EP - 66 points in 68 games, 0.97 ppg


I'd say EP is on a similar level to Eichel through their ELC production. Both would be by far the most talented forwards on their team as well. I'd say EP is due for at least $10 million per year.

 

[BB06]

EP isn't comparable to Matthews at all. Here are some of the top young C's in the league and their ELC production.

D+ 1
McDavid - 48 points in 45 games, 1.07 ppg
Matthews - 69 points in 82 games, 0.84 ppg
Mackinnon - 63 points in 82 games, 0.77 ppg
LD - 9 points in 37 games, 0.24 ppg
Eichel - 56 points in 81 games, 0.69 ppg
EP - Not in NHL

D+ 2
McDavid - 100 points in 82 games, 1.22 ppg
Matthews - 63 points in 62 games, 1.02 ppg
Mackinnon - 38 points in 64 games, 0.59 ppg
LD - 51 points in 72 games, 0.71 ppg
Eichel - 57 points in 61 games, 0.93 ppg
EP - 66 points in 71 games, 0.93 ppg

D+3

McDavid - 108 points in 82 games, 1.32 ppg
Matthews - 73 points in 68 games, 1.07 ppg
Mackinnon - 52 points in 72 games, 0.72 ppg
LD - 77 points in 82 games, 0.94 ppg (first season playing mainly with McDavid)
Eichel - 64 points in 67 games, 0.96 ppg
EP - 66 points in 68 games, 0.97 ppg


I'd say EP is on a similar level to Eichel through their ELC production. Both would be by far the most talented forwards on their team as well. I'd say EP is due for at least $10 million per year.

Doesn't seem that far off and if you break it down into ELC production and not D+ production it's a wash. EP has also shown far better in the playoffs than Matthews so who knows. Don't think Benning will overpay EP like Dubas did AM and he definitely won't walk him into FA.

 

[xECK29x]

Probably going to be similar to how it was this year...unremarkable and ho-hum... no offer sheets. A lot of penny pinching.

Likely to be much, much worse,. at least we got through 90% of the regular season with full attendance, that isn't happening for 2020-21. It's going to really suck being a free agent of any kind next year.

 

[BB06]

Likely to be much, much worse,. at least we got through 90% of the regular season with full attendance, that isn't happening for 2020-21. It's going to really suck being a free agent of any kind next year.

Best time to steal friendly deals with RFA's and UFA's. A lot of teams could come out ahead due to this.

 

[BrockLobster]

Also adam pelech and Anthony beauvillier are also RFAs

 

[BAM]

Doesn't seem that far off and if you break it down into ELC production and not D+ production it's a wash. EP has also shown far better in the playoffs than Matthews so who knows. Don't think Benning will overpay EP like Dubas did AM and he definitely won't walk him into FA.

...
D+ just means their season post draft...

I literally comapared their ELC production and Matthews is superior. Eichel is the player that EP has produced most closely to. EP has a 0.95 ppg since being in the league which works out to 78 points over 82 games, Matthews has a 1.05 ppg over that period which works out to 86 points over 82 games. Also, in that same 2 year period, Eichel has the same ppg as EP and also averaged 78 points over that period.

Unlike Matthews, Eichel, McDavid, Mackinnon and LD, Petersson wasn't NHL ready his first year so he doesn't have his D+1 numbers drag his totals down like the rest of the group.

And Eichel was never signed by Dubas and got his $10 million. You can't have it both ways, either EP is elite and a future top 10 player so you pay him as such, or he's not that good and you Nuck fans are just overhyping like Boeser in the past.

 

[Archijerej]

We're gonna see a deluge of offer sheets AGAIN?

 

[BB06]

...

I literally comapared their ELC production and Matthews is superior. Eichel is the player that EP has produced most closely to. EP has a 0.95 ppg since being in the league which works out to 78 points over 82 games, Matthews has a 1.05 ppg over that period which works out to 86 points over 82 games. Also, in that same 2 year period, Eichel has the same ppg as EP and also averaged 78 points over that period.

No you compared their D+1/2/3

Pettersson ELC Year 1: 0.93 ppg
Pettersson ELC Year 2: 0.97 pig
Pettersson: ELC Year 3 :TBA

Matthews ELC Year 1: .84ppg
Matthews ELC Year 2: 1.02 ppg
Matthews ELC Year 3: 1.07 PPG

Pretty much a wash the first 2 year of ELC production granted Matthews was younger. Although if you take playoffs into account scale goes Petey's way.

 

[BAM]

No you compared their D+1/2/3

Pettersson ELC Year 1: 0.93 ppg
Pettersson ELC Year 2: 0.97 pig
Pettersson: ELC Year 3 :TBA

Matthews ELC Year 1: .84ppg
Matthews ELC Year 2: 1.02 ppg
Matthews ELC Year 3: 1.07 PPG

Pretty much a wash the first 2 year of ELC production granted Matthews was younger. Although if you take playoffs into account scale goes Petey's way.

LMFAO Nuck fans are hilarious, whatever makes you feel better. Get ready for $10 million + regardless

Matthews being NHL ready his first season and EP not is a bonus for Matthews. D+ comapares the two players at every comparative season. What you're doing is just comparing EP in his 2nd season post draft to Matthews in his 1st season post draft.

If you can't see the bias in that you're hopeless.

 

[BB06]

LMFAO Nuck fans are hilarious, whatever makes you feel better. Get ready for $10 million + regardless

Seems fair on a long term deal. Can you imagine paying your RFA's as the highest paid player in the league and not getting term. That'd be a big yikes.