Prospect Info: The 2019 Entry NHL Draft Thread - Part V

[Balthazar]

Nope. Caufield is a reach at 4.... but I really think he could go that high and of it was us taking him I'd be on board with it.


He should be well inside the Top 10 now though. Size is the only concern about this kid. He'll probably set the goal scoring record at the u18s right now.

Every year there's a pure goal scorer in the 7-10 range and people get too excited about them. Last year it was Wahlstrom, the year before it was Tippett...

 

[avsfan09]

Though I like knockoff-Podkolzin, I'm not taking him over Turcotte, Cozens, Caufield...and probably not over Byram or Dach either.

You'd take Caulfield over Byram and Dach?

 

[cgf]

You'd take Caulfield over Byram and Dach?

Nah, probably not...but damn would I have to think about it.

...at least not Dach, especially if the skating experts say there are clear things in his skating that they can identify & improve; I'm more open to taking Caufield over Byram with the way Cale's hit the ground running for us...

 

[avsfan09]

Sounds like Rantanen.

Maybe this specific playoffs and with good reason...

 

[avsfan09]

Nope. Caufield is a reach at 4.... but I really think he could go that high and of it was us taking him I'd be on board with it.


He should be well inside the Top 10 now though. Size is the only concern about this kid. He'll probably set the goal scoring record at the u18s right now.

It's one concern. His skating isn't exceptional. Its not bad but for his size you'd hope for better. And you can't act like his size is only a small concern.

 

[Avs_19]

So is our pick now in the 18-20 range?

Nah.

1-15: Non-playoff teams
16-27: Playoff teams eliminated in the first two rounds. The division winners get the latest of these picks and the rest are based on regular season standings
28-29: Conference finals losers
30: Stanley Cup runner-up
31: Stanley Cup winner

So the Avs will pick 16th unless they advance to the WCF.

 

[AvsMakar08]

Why is Podkolzin not in the poll? He will be on the board. I don't see the Hawks drafting him.

I believe that Avs will draft him 4thOA, but most Avs fans are not too high on Podkolzin. They think that he will stay in KHL top club for 2 more years and that there might be that Russian factor. Contract issues and signing him might be a big deal.

If most of scouts rank Podkolizin going 3rd OA, then we need to pick him. He will have that most superstar upside more then any other player. He is in the bracket next to Hughes and Kakko...Only Podkolzin skill can reach near Kakko skill level. All other players are a bracket below these 3 players. Sakic better be drafting best player with a top upside available.

 

[avsfan09]

Nah, probably not...but damn would I have to think about it.

...at least not Dach, especially if the skating experts say there are clear things in his skating that they can identify & improve; I'm more open to taking Caufield over Byram with the way Cale's hit the ground running for us...

That's fair enough. Although I'll disagree with Byram. Even if you don't see his upside being high offensively he looks like he'll have a floor close to a top pairing Dman that can pair with Makar and make his life easier.

 

[cgf]

That's fair enough. Although I'll disagree with Byram. Even if you don't see his upside being high offensively he looks like he'll have a floor close to a top pairing Dman that can pair with Makar and make his life easier.

It's not that I dislike Byram, I just don't see that high ceiling to be a highend #1 and my only qualm with the blueline would be not having any cover in case Makar doesn't become a highend #1...but that concern is dissipating by the game. Whereas I still think we need reinforcements up front & there are a lot of talent forwards in this draft, some of whom I'm already in love with lol.

Though I totally get people who see Byram the way I saw Heiskanen and want someone like him next to Cale, Tyson & Samwise.

 

[Hasbro]

Doing the Team board mock draft a lot of Buffalo and Detroit fans are talking about trading down. I'd be all for moving up for one of the second tier guys dropping or Caufield

 

[Ivan13]

Pods has shown in this tournament the exact questions to his game. Average to below average play for most of the game then 2 plays that get scouts talking.

Pretty much.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

It's one concern. His skating isn't exceptional. Its not bad but for his size you'd hope for better. And you can't act like his size is only a small concern.

I dont think it should be a concern at all. That's why I would consider taking him at 4. Though hes behind Byram, Turcotte, and Cozens in my preference but if we took him at 4 I wouldn't be upset.

 

[Makar to MacK]

Ok I got a question for you guys. Other then the top 2 of this years draft, where would you rank Cozens, Dach, Pods, Byram, Turcotte, and Krebs in the 2017 draft. Not how they are now but how you saw them in 2017. 2017's top 4 were #1 Nico Hischier, #2 Nolan Patrick, #3 Miro Heiskanen, and #4 Makar (obviously)? I mean hind sight is 2020 so anyone who says Makar #1 I know is full of doodoo lol.

 

[AvsMakar08]

Ok I got a question for you guys. Other then the top 2 of this years draft, where would you rank Cozens, Dach, Pods, Byram, Turcotte, and Krebs in the 2017 draft. Not how they are now but how you saw them in 2017. 2017's top 4 were #1 Nico Hischier, #2 Nolan Patrick, #3 Miro Heiskanen, and #4 Makar (obviously)? I mean hind sight is 2020 so anyone who says Makar #1 I know is full of doodoo lol.

It's a clear choice. I would choose Podkolzin 4th OA by Avs. It reminds me of Makar playing in that lower tier league before his draft year. We have to draft best player available. The only player that can match the top bracket Hughes / Kakko is Podklozin. We need a sniper. A shot first type of player on this team. We don't really have a pure sniper type of player on this team.

 

[Makar to MacK]

It's a clear choice. I would choose Podkolzin 4th OA by Avs. It reminds me of Makar playing in that lower tier league before his draft year. We have to draft best player available. The only player that can match the top bracket Hughes / Kakko is Podklozin. We need a sniper. A shot first type of player on this team. We don't really have a pure sniper type of player on this team.

But is he better then what Nolan Patrick was expected to be? That is the question I was trying to ask. Really about him and Byram

 

[cgf]

I loved Heiskanen, Makar & Mittelstadt, and had warmed up to EP significantly if we hadn't needed a blueliner that badly. I'd probably have the two blueliners ahead of everyone but the top 2 in this class; with it being really close between Mitt, Pod, EP & Turcotte after that (in that order based on how I saw it at the time of the draft)

Glass, Cozens, Caufield, Dach, etc. coming in after that.

 

[SoundwaveIsCharisma]

Dream scenario is to take Turcotte, for Pod to drop a bit and the Avs trade back up for him. Turcotte+Podkolzin would be very annoying to play against, two relentless guys

 

[AvsMakar08]

Dream scenario is to take Turcotte, for Pod to drop a bit and the Avs trade back up for him. Turcotte+Podkolzin would be very annoying to play against, two relentless guys

I disagree. I think it will be other way around. I think we will go for Podkolzin first because he has the highest ceiling and then with our pick we can go for Caufield.

 

[Ncit3]

I disagree. I think it will be other way around. I think we will go for Podkolzin first because he has the highest ceiling and then with our pick we can go for Caufield.

I'd love this. For some reason Turcotte seems to be a big love of some people on this board. I love me some Pod and think he'd be an awesome pick

I know people want that #2C. But there are plenty of ways to address it.

We need to collect Russians anyway for the inevitable Panarin signing.

 

[AvsMakar08]

I'd love this. For some reason Turcotte seems to be a big love of some people on this board. I love me some Pod and think he'd be an awesome pick

I know people want that #2C. But there are plenty of ways to address it.

We need to collect Russians anyway for the inevitable Panarin signing.

Kovaleko's father is a big boss in KHL. He has the power to send both, his son and Podkolzin to Avalache as soon as 1 year from now (we all know how the Russians are doing things). Panarin would just make us contenders next season.

 

[BKarchitect]

Caufield is will be the next DeBrincat, without question in my opinion. Guy just scores like crazy at every level.

I think it would be pretty sweet to pick a Turcotte at #4 and then trade up into that 8-12 range to grab Caufield and watch both as freshmen at Wisconsin next season. Heck, we can pick up Dylan Holloway in 2020 and badda bing badda boom - brand new second line straight outta Madison!

 

[timothy jimothy]

Goalie development is no more finicky than skater development if we compare 1st round picks to 1st round picks, 2nd rounders to 2nd rounders, etc. What makes it seem so finicky is that most goalies are not drafted top 40, or even top 100. A 1st round goalie is no more likely to bust than a skater taken in the same area.

I disagree with that. Goalies have to take a bigger jump than players do when they enter the NHL. If they aren't good enough to play they simply don't get the playing time. Goalies do not have the benefit of being able to play sheltered minutes until they can adjust to the NHL like players do. It is a longer path for goalies to get to the NHL and that means there is more chances for a team to mess something up in development, especially if they get impatient. Goalie development has a much finer balance between giving opportunity and being patient than player development has.

I was curious so I decided to look at the first round of the draft since 2000. I decided to omit the last 5 years because it is too early to form an opinion on those players and goalies.

To determine if a player was a success in the NHL, I decided to use games played. The average career length of an NHLer is about 5 seasons, or about 400 games played without missing a game. I would say at the very worst you want your first round pick to be at this level. For some of the more recent years, there are some players that do not have 400 games played, but currently have starting roles in an NHL lineup and are on track to have 400 games played, so I'll consider these players separately and they will represent the top end of draft success in the first round. There are also a few long shots that may reach 400 games but I considered these negligent to the overall percentage.

PLAYERS IN THE FIRST ROUND (>400GP)
2014- 0 + 14
2013- 6 + 8
2012- 8 + 9
2011- 11 + 6
2010- 16 + 4
2009- 16 + 1
2008- 16
2007- 18
2006- 16
2005- 12
2004- 14 + 1
2003- 22
2002- 18
2001- 17
2000- 14

In this 15 year period there were a total of 424 non-goalies selected in the first round. Successful first round players lies somewhere between 204 and 247 players or 48% and 58%.

GOALIES IN THE FIRST ROUND
2014- 0
2013- 0
2012- Andrei Vasilevsky (19), Malcolm Subban (24)
2011- 0
2010- Jack Campbell (11), Mark Visentin (27)
2009- 0
2008- Chet Pickard (18), Tom McCollum (30)
2007- 0
2006- Jonathan Bernier (11), Riku Helenius (15), Semyon Varlamov (23), Leland Irving (26)
2005- Carey Price (5), Tuukka Rask (21)
2004- Al Montoya (6), Devan Dubnyk (14), Marek Schwarz (17), Cory Schneider (26)
2003- Marc-Andre Fleury (1)
2002- Kari Lehtonen (2), Cam Ward (25), Hannu Toivenen (29)
2001- Pascal Leclaire (8), Dan Blackburn (10), Jason Bacashihua (26), Adam Munro (29)
2000- Rick DiPietro (1), Brent Khrahn (9)

In this 15 year period there were a total of 26 goalies selected in the first round. For goalies, I would consider a starter to at least start half of the season, so if you take the average career length of an NHLer, a successful starting goalie should play at least 200 games. This leaves you with 11 goalies or a 42% success rate. Vasilevsky, Bernier, Varlamov, Price, Rask, Dubnyk, Schneider, Fleury, Lehtonen, Ward, DiPietro.

I will admit that I thought the discrepancy would be larger, although that's not to say the difference is not there. Something else that I found interesting was that 6 out of the 11 successful goalies were traded for a first round pick or less during or before they entered their prime. All 6 of those goalies outperformed what they were traded for after the trade besides maybe Jonathan Bernier. That would leave Vasilevsky, Price, Fleury, Ward and DiPietro* as the only goalies that returned good value for the teams that drafted them. Only 19% of the goalies selected in the first round netted the teams that drafted them good value. That's another lesson in why teams need to be as patient as the selected goalie requires them to be, and why acquiring established starting NHL goaltending through trade still looks like the smarter move.

*DiPietro was not a good goalie.

 

[Balthazar]

Caufield is will be the next DeBrincat, without question in my opinion. Guy just scores like crazy at every level.

Even if he turns into DeBrincat 2.0 he shouldn't be a top 5 pick. If you're going to pick a winger at this rank he better be Brady Tkachuk good (which means not only good at scoring goals but many other intangibles like defensive and physical play). Even Patrik Laine is raising questions these days and he's supposed to become the next Ovi.

 

[avsfan09]

I dont think it should be a concern at all. That's why I would consider taking him at 4. Though hes behind Byram, Turcotte, and Cozens in my preference but if we took him at 4 I wouldn't be upset.

It's definitely a concern but I understand not thinking it'll make or break him completely.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

With Grubauer claiming the starting spot and looking like the guy for years to come, how many people are still on board with Knight at 16?

A month ago, it was full steam ahead on Knight with our pick, but I’m curious if that has changed now.