Speculation: The 2019 Draft Thread - Sabres pick 7th

[sabresEH]

Semantics of the difference of a draft OA year vs. a junior OA year.

Well wouldn't this season be his draft + 2 season? So technically last season would be an overage draft season as well

 

[sabresEH]

I don't think people are talking about players being drafted after their overage season in juniors. Such players wouldn't be draft eligible anymore (with the possible exception, I suppose, of import players only coming over for their overage year).

Makes sense but someone who is in their draft + 1 year or draft + 2 year are both "overage" draft players. I guess if we're just generalizing undrafted players as OA guys that works. But if you follow junior hockey the OA season would be next year for Leason.

 

[Woodhouse]

He was draft eligible in 2017 as well. I wouldn't use a pick on him, it's not at all unusual for overagers to beast in the WHL. Happens every single year with 20yo guys making mincemeat of younger, smaller, weaker competition.

Last year it was Jayden Halbgewachs and Glenn Gawdin tearing it up. Dryden Hunt and Brayden Burke in 15-16. Huge numbers from a 19-20 year old playing against 16 and 17 year olds doesn't make a guy who has been passed over twice suddenly draftable.

I think that's a lazy comparable. One, it looks like you're conflating Leason's 19-y/o "draft overager" year with their 113-129 point 20-y/o "CHL overager" years. That bully OA WHL year is '20-21 for Leason if he's not in the AHL. Two, Leason's good enough for HC and had one less point than Glass while at the '19 WJC. None of those other four were ever good enough at that age to be on their WJC squads, let all alone produce, yet all are playing in the AHL to varying degrees on ELC's earned through their following OA years. Three, so what you're saying is that you'd pass on the 6'4" late bloomer (grew quickly, large frame) who has worked hard at his skating to only roll the dice on younger picks that you only wish stepped forward this well?

Numbers for reference:

• Halbgewachs' 19-y/o year = 2016-17, so: 71GP 50+51=101
• Gawdin's 19-y/o year = 2016-17, so: 52 GP 26+33=59
• Hunt's 19-y/o year = 2014-15, so: 71 GP 33+50=83
• Burke's 19-y/o year = 2016-17, so: 61 GP 19+63=82
• Glass's 19-y/o year = 2018-19, so: 26 GP 12+42=54
• Leason's 19-y/o year= 2018-19, so: 31 GP 28+36=64

Leason wasn't even playing Junior-A in '15-16. His 17-y/o '16-17 season, aka draft year, was his first in the WHL, leaving home and jumping from Midget AAA to WHL. He got traded to a better spot in PA during his +1 year, doubling his production there from his previous season, and now, in his +2 year as a 19 y/o, surged to Cody Glass type numbers at both the WHL and WJC levels. That's a 2+ P/GP WHL clip right now for those unaware. Glass, like Leason, is also an April '99 birthday. Glass was drafted 6th overall in 2017. Not pausing yet? Did I mention Leason's not a smurf and can shoot? Only question here should be where do you see his ceiling and floor in comparison to the tiers of this draft.

 

[Woodhouse]

Pigskin prodigy showing his puck skills with Prince Albert Raiders:

“Brett worked really hard this summer,” says Raiders GM Curtis Hunt, who acquired Leason in a trade with the Tri-City Americans early last season. I think he came in just about 10 pounds lighter. It has obviously helped his skating. He has always had that skill. At 6-4, sometimes they’re just a little bit later developing those big, long muscles. That was probably why he was passed over in his draft year — that and the fact that he was playing behind (some quality veterans) in Tri-City. They had a whole slew of skilled players. He probably didn’t get the exposure. There were maybe some question marks around his skating but everybody likes that size. He does have tremendous skill and a heavy shot. Certainly he has gotten everyone’s attention now.”​

Leason going from overlooked to key forward for Canada at World Juniors:

"I was buried behind an experienced group when I was playing in Tri-City, and when I got traded to [Prince Albert] I finally got the chance to play and be a guy they can rely on," Leason said. "I was able to play my game this year. Coach (Marc Habscheid) let me do my thing and it paid off. Getting moved and getting a chance to play was a fresh start. Really tried to bring strength in my legs, and then toward the end of the summer I just worked on quick feet and agility to get the extra step."​

 

[Reddawg]

I think that's a lazy comparable. One, it looks like you're conflating Leason's 19-y/o "draft overager" year with their 113-129 point 20-y/o "CHL overager" years. That bully OA WHL year is '20-21 for Leason if he's not in the AHL. Two, Leason's good enough for HC and had one less point than Glass while at the '19 WJC. None of those other four were ever good enough at that age to be on their WJC squads, let all alone produce, yet all are playing in the AHL to varying degrees on ELC's earned through their following OA years. Three, so what you're saying is that you'd pass on the 6'4" late bloomer (grew quickly, large frame) who has worked hard at his skating to only roll the dice on younger picks that you only wish stepped forward this well?

Numbers for reference:

• Halbgewachs' 19-y/o year = 2016-17, so: 71GP 50+51=101
• Gawdin's 19-y/o year = 2016-17, so: 52 GP 26+33=59
• Hunt's 19-y/o year = 2014-15, so: 71 GP 33+50=83
• Burke's 19-y/o year = 2016-17, so: 61 GP 19+63=82
• Glass's 19-y/o year = 2018-19, so: 26 GP 12+42=54
• Leason's 19-y/o year= 2018-19, so: 31 GP 28+36=64

Leason wasn't even playing Junior-A in '15-16. His 17-y/o '16-17 season, aka draft year, was his first in the WHL, leaving home and jumping from Midget AAA to WHL. He got traded to a better spot in PA during his +1 year, doubling his production there from his previous season, and now, in his +2 year as a 19 y/o, surged to Cody Glass type numbers at both the WHL and WJC levels. That's a 2+ P/GP WHL clip right now for those unaware. Glass, like Leason, is also an April '99 birthday. Glass was drafted 6th overall in 2017. Not pausing yet? Did I mention Leason's not a smurf and can shoot? Only question here should be where do you see his ceiling and floor in comparison to the tiers of this draft.

Nice post. I read it all and while we don't agree on Leason I can certainly appreciate the thought and work you put into your case. For me, I'm just never going to have much faith in a guy that was passed over in two drafts. Not only would I not draft him in the first round (where it sounds like you believe he'll go) but I wouldn't even think about him until the 7th round which is prime Eric Locke territory. Remember him? Passed over in two drafts, we took him in the 7th in his third year of eligibility after he beasted his way to a 97pt season as a third year, 19yo player. He's 25 now and playing college hockey after not getting signed by us or anyone else on the continent and ending up in Austria for a few years not doing a lot.

I do get that Locke is 5'8 and Leason is 6'4...maybe that will matter a whole lot and maybe it won't. I guess my point is that guys who get passed over get passed over for a reason. Guys who get passed over twice...I can't even think of a player where that circumstance worked out remarkably well. Google has informed me that Victor Stalberg was such a player, and there's no chance I'm taking him in the 1st in '06 (he went in the 6th). If there's a guy who was passed over twice and became a star in the last 20 years, I'd really like to hear about it.

Also, I'm not going to pick through every player we're discussing but I'll do the first one. Halbgewachs turned 20 in March of 2017 during his first beast year (1997 birthday). Leason is going to turn 20 in April of his current beast year (1999 birthday). I really don't see the difference you're trying to make exist. Their circumstances as WHL players are like 38 days apart.

 

[Woodhouse]

@Reddawg How old you are between Sep.15 and Dec.31 is the age typically used in CBA's for age-related matters, hence why I used it. For instance, if you're considered 19 there, you're eligible to play an overage year the next season; if you're 20, you're not and it's your last. Leason's season will dwarf or best those examples at 19-y/o if he only maintains a 1.5+ P/GP clip. His year's on pace to best all of their even better 20-y/o OA bully years too.

 

[K8fool]

@Reddawg How old you are between Sep.15 and Dec.31 is the age typically used in CBA's for age-related matters, hence why I used it. For instance, if you're considered 19 there, you're eligible to play an overage year the next season; if you're 20, you're not and it's your last. Leason's season will dwarf or best those examples at 19-y/o if he only maintains a 1.5+ P/GP clip. His year's on pace to best all of their even better 20-y/o OA bully years too.

Looks like three, this year. Ive already asked simalar ..but do you think any three are taken 15 to 28 , do any see time next year and what would you rank with prospects and do any wjc playerx compete for spots soon?

 

[Woodhouse]

If you're looking for quickest paths to pro, undersized guys (5'7" to 5'10") that don't have prototypical NHL size get flagged for that and can slide regardless of their skill. Not all are success stories after their Draft+1 years or pan out in general, but their smaller frames also can make it easier to fill out quicker, as opposed to the tall and lanky, so you do see a handful of these types crack into the NHL for their Draft+2 year. Quickly eyeing drafts for name refreshers on the success stories by year: 2017's likely Brannstrom, Yamamoto, Tolvanen; 2016's Keller, Debrincat, Girard, Mete, Bratt; 2015's Konecny, Malgin for sure, maybe Beauvillier, Aho too if they were 5'10", I forget; 2014's Fabbri, Arvidsson... you get the point. Brink, Caulfield, Hoglander, Pelletier, and Robertson are probably the undersized names to consider in this draft in the top-90, maybe Campbell later, but I don't see the Draft+2 jump to pro there as related to this discussion, as that'd be four tier jumps in four years (Stanstead to playing with Newhook in Victoria to Clarkson +1 to pro +2) for him.

Someone like Leason is an anomaly though and probably ranked 21-40 if his year holds. He, more than others, can't nosedive or his draft stock will tank because it's his third year of eligibility. I wouldn't rush him to compete for a spot in '19-20 unless he takes it in camp, but he certainly has the potential to compete for a spot as soon as '20-21.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

All things being equal, I hope we walk away from the first round with 3 forwards. The team and the system really need some guys who can score.

 

[Gabrielor]

All things being equal, I hope we walk away from the first round with 3 forwards. The team and the system really need some guys who can score.

Im hoping 2 forwards and a d, but honestly, this year its bpa. We have all the important must-haves covered, now just pick the best talent.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

Im hoping 2 forwards and a d, but honestly, this year its bpa. We have all the important must-haves covered, now just pick the best talent.

I wouldn't hate that, but I feel reasonably confident in a collection of D that includes Risto, Dahlin, McCabe, Borgen, and potentially Guhle, Samuelsson, Oskari, etc.

Agreed on BPA, as a general rule and for the upcoming draft. That's why I said 'all things being equal'. Mostly, I'm sick of seeing the Sabres lose games where they only score 1 goal.

 

[Jim Bob]

Why Jack Hughes could be the best USNTDP product ever – Sportsnet

 

[Gabrielor]

I’m still not even sold that he’s the best player in this draft

 

[Jim Bob]

Hughes on the Avs would be scary.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

All things being equal, I hope we walk away from the first round with 3 forwards. The team and the system really need some guys who can score.

I know this isn't you point, which I agree with, but I think we can officially give up hope on getting that Blues 1st this year. Looking at the standings at the halfway point, you can pretty much write 2020 in stone now, regarding that pick.

 

[TheMistyStranger]

I know this isn't you point, which I agree with, but I think we can officially give up hope on getting that Blues 1st this year. Looking at the standings at the halfway point, you can pretty much write 2020 in stone now, regarding that pick.

Yeesh. You're probably right.

 

[dotcommunism]

I know this isn't you point, which I agree with, but I think we can officially give up hope on getting that Blues 1st this year. Looking at the standings at the halfway point, you can pretty much write 2020 in stone now, regarding that pick.

Eh, the Blues are far from a lock to pick in the top 10, even with where they are in the standings. They've got at least one game in hand on literally everyone, and several on some of the teams "ahead" of them in the standings. It's not like they're in free fall like Ottawa or Detroit either, it's far from unrealistic that they could string a few wins together.

 

[Zip15]

So which high-floor, low-ceiling Swedes are we looking at with SJ's late-1st?

 

[Der Jaeger]

So which high-floor, low-ceiling Swedes are we looking at with SJ's late-1st?

Albin Grewe. Swedish version of Varada.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

Eh, the Blues are far from a lock to pick in the top 10, even with where they are in the standings. They've got at least one game in hand on literally everyone, and several on some of the teams "ahead" of them in the standings. It's not like they're in free fall like Ottawa or Detroit either, it's far from unrealistic that they could string a few wins together.

It would be a legendary comeback to make the playoffs being in last place, 9 points back, at the halfway point. Games-in-hand aside (they do have a number of GIH on most).

There's always hope, nothing's a sure thing, etc....but this is one wish I'm not getting my hopes up on. Not with that defense. I'm an optimist but resigned to the fact that we aren't getting that 2019 pick.

 

[Revelate]

It would be a legendary comeback to make the playoffs being in last place, 9 points back, at the halfway point. Games-in-hand aside (they do have a number of GIH on most).

There's always hope, nothing's a sure thing, etc....but this is one wish I'm not getting my hopes up on. Not with that defense. I'm an optimist but resigned to the fact that we aren't getting that 2019 pick.

They don’t have to make the playoffs. Just not be bottom 10.

 

[truthbluth]

It would be a legendary comeback to make the playoffs being in last place, 9 points back, at the halfway point. Games-in-hand aside (they do have a number of GIH on most).

There's always hope, nothing's a sure thing, etc....but this is one wish I'm not getting my hopes up on. Not with that defense. I'm an optimist but resigned to the fact that we aren't getting that 2019 pick.

It’s the San Jose pick that’s lottery protected

 

[sabrebuild]

Hughes on the Avs would be scary.

They are in a great spot to go offersheet on someone this year, and rely on the Ottawa pick to outweigh the loss of presumably low first round picks in the near future.

They have a stupid amount of cap space even with raises coming to Rantanen and Mackinnon in a few years.

I honestly think they should offer Marner a big number, or use some picks with Ottawa to get Stone or go after Karlsson.

Long story short the Avs should be wheeling and dealing.

 

[Chainshot]

Albin Grewe. Swedish version of Varada.

I like him in limited views with Davidsson. This article was funny:

Albin Grewe – the “T-Rex” who is “a pain in the ass”

 

[MrMaster]

Has anybody ever mentioned the fact that a 2020 top 5 or top 10 pick might fit right into the lineup, while this years top 20 pick might take years to develop before stepping into the league?
The reason i'm saying this is bcs i'm sort of convinced that the Blues go through the same kind of trajectory of rise and decline like the Blackhawks do right now.