The 2019-20 Tank Command Thread -Part V

[BatherSeason]

Chappy and Form called up

Batherson, not Form

 

[Sweatred]

Batherson, not Form

Ahhhh . My bad.

 

[HSF]

Let the tank continueeee

 

[HavlatMach9]

Two four-point games with Sens vs Devils and Sharks vs Ducks

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Huuuuuuge night for the tank.

No excuses. Just have to come out with two big losses in regulation for both Sens and Sharks. Anything less is abysmal failure.

There is no "moral victory" to tonight's game.

 

[JonnyMacSen]

Huuuuuuge night for the tank.

No excuses. Just have to come out with two big losses in regulation for both Sens and Sharks. Anything less is abysmal failure.

There is no "moral victory" to tonight's game.

Agreed, if we are gonna win a game, lets save it for the Leafs on the weekend

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Agreed, if we are gonna win a game, lets save it for the Leafs on the weekend

With how tight the tank race is this year, I'll even celebrate a loss against those blokes!

 

[Silencio]

With how tight the tank race is this year, I'll even celebrate a loss against those blokes!

The things we do for love....

 

[JonnyMacSen]

With how tight the tank race is this year, I'll even celebrate a loss against those blokes!

Well I did say "if"...lol

There gonna win at some point, might as well collect a few Leaf tears when we do.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

The things we do for love....

Well I did say "if"...lol

There gonna win at some point, might as well collect a few Leaf tears when we do.

I have no shame. Better odds is the priority above all else and I'd be happy if they lose every single one the rest of the way. I see no need for any "moral victories" in a rebuild season that only serves to lower our odds and move us down the guarantee ladder.

 

[h2]

Huuuuuuge night for the tank.

No excuses. Just have to come out with two big losses in regulation for both Sens and Sharks. Anything less is abysmal failure.

There is no "moral victory" to tonight's game.

Exactly.

If the boys play hard and we continue to lose, that's all I want!

 

[thinkwild]

why all of Zaitsev's numbers suck compared to other top-four defenders.

Im still struggling to understand all the advanced stats and how to interpret them. I am hoping maybe you can help me with this a bit.

I would expect Zaitsevs plus/minus numbers to suck cause he is an adequate poor mans top four D on a bad team. I interpret all these Corsi, xGF, etc as just an advanced plus minus based on shots? Is it true that xGF is basically total shots divided by 6 or 7?

Are Boro’s numbers better than Zaitsev too? My superficial first thought would be that Zaitsevs would be the worst because he is the worst player playing the most against top lines. Chabots should be the best. Chabots partner should be 2nd best. Even if DeMelo was a worse dman than Zaitsev, as Chabots primary partner would it be fair to expect him to have better numbers than our #3 or 4 dman who is really only barely average on a less than average team?

But yeah huge night for the tank tonight, go you know who

 

[Sweatred]

Huuuuuuge night for the tank.

No excuses. Just have to come out with two big losses in regulation for both Sens and Sharks. Anything less is abysmal failure.

There is no "moral victory" to tonight's game.

Im going to puke if I see Ennis and Brown running through walls tonight every 2ND shift.

 

[Micklebot]

Im still struggling to understand all the advanced stats and how to interpret them. I am hoping maybe you can help me with this a bit.

I would expect Zaitsevs plus/minus numbers to suck cause he is an adequate poor mans top four D on a bad team. I interpret all these Corsi, xGF, etc as just an advanced plus minus based on shots? Is it true that xGF is basically total shots divided by 6 or 7?

Are Boro’s numbers better than Zaitsev too? My superficial first thought would be that Zaitsevs would be the worst because he is the worst player playing the most against top lines. Chabots should be the best. Chabots partner should be 2nd best. Even if DeMelo was a worse dman than Zaitsev, as Chabots primary partner would it be fair to expect him to have better numbers than our #3 or 4 dman who is really only barely average on a less than average team?

But yeah huge night for the tank tonight, go you know who

wrt xGF, it is typically a model based on historic percentages of similar shots scoring. So they take a variety of categories like shots of the rush, shots immediately following a pass, rebound or not, type of shot (slap, snap, wrist, backhand), shot location, ect, and see how often similar shot attempts have resulted in a goal.

So for example, a snap shot made off the rush (defined as a shot coming with a couple seconds of entering the zone) taken from 7 feet out from the net immediately following a pass might hypothetically score 50% of the time, so would have an xGF of .5 while a wrist shot from the point not off the rush and not following a pass might score 1 out of every 100 shots and thus have a xGF value of .01

Some things xGF doesn't take into account in any model I've seen is shooter quality, or goalie quality, whether or not the goalie is in position as well as it misses chances where a shot attempt isn't made (for example if the guy misses the puck on a one timer attempt).

 

[ijif]

Im still struggling to understand all the advanced stats and how to interpret them. I am hoping maybe you can help me with this a bit.

I would expect Zaitsevs plus/minus numbers to suck cause he is an adequate poor mans top four D on a bad team. I interpret all these Corsi, xGF, etc as just an advanced plus minus based on shots? Is it true that xGF is basically total shots divided by 6 or 7?

Are Boro’s numbers better than Zaitsev too? My superficial first thought would be that Zaitsevs would be the worst because he is the worst player playing the most against top lines. Chabots should be the best. Chabots partner should be 2nd best. Even if DeMelo was a worse dman than Zaitsev, as Chabots primary partner would it be fair to expect him to have better numbers than our #3 or 4 dman who is really only barely average on a less than average team?

But yeah huge night for the tank tonight, go you know who

@Micklebot covered xGF%, but there are models (old ones that are no longer live) that take shooter talent into account, but we can also just do that naturally (to some extent). For example, Brady has great expected numbers, but he never beats them because he has little shooting talent, and I think the eye test matches that. If a player consistently beats ixGF, that might suggest shooting talent, and if a player can't beat them, it might suggest little or no shooting talent.

Based on all the numbers I have seen (WOWY, xGF, CF, SCF, WAR, isolated GF%, and macro stats, both raw and relative)
Chabot is our best defender, and the eye test matches that.
Zaitsev has pretty much the worst numbers in every metric, and in some metrics, it is not close.

Your guesses have some problems because Zaitsev is Chabot's most common partner, so he cannot be the worst and second best, and Chabot is not good enough to drag Zaitsev around the ice. I don't want our best player strapped to an anchor, and that is what is happening.

Boro has better numbers than Zaitsev. Basically, I think Chabot and DeMelo are pretty solid, and everyone else is varying degrees of bad. Chabot and DeMelo are top-four defenders.
Wolanin had pretty strong numbers last year, so if he can keep it up, he can slot into a top-four role

Sorry, I missed your last question, but I am not quite understanding exactly what you are asking. Are you asking If Z is worse than D, but Z is paired with C, should expect Z to have better numbers than D? If that is your question...
It depends on the extent of separation between Z and D, but I would not really expect that. Chabot is really good, but he is not at the level where he consistently elevates everyone on the team. It is also hard to answer because while I believe every player has an isolated value, no player ever plays in isolation, so interactions between certain players can boost or devalue a player's isolated value in, to some extent, unpredictable ways.

 

[JonnyMacSen]

 

[OUTHOUSE]

If the Sens get 2 of the top 3 picks I’ll get a 2D Sens tattoo

 

[Que]

If the Sens get 2 of the top 3 picks I’ll get a 2D Sens tattoo

You don’t already have one?

 

[Gil Gunderson]

We can’t even get an exciting box score when winning.

 

[Sweatred]

Stupid shorties ...

 

[Matsens15]

Nice comeback from NJ!!!!!

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Lame. They just had to go and blow it, again.

These pointless loser points are gonna burn at the end, especially coming against the tank rivals.

 

[SensFan1010]

Lame. They just had to go and blow it, again.

These pointless loser points are gonna burn at the end, especially coming against the tank rivals.

Ill take them better then a win, and it shows we bust a** all game and lose in a shootout. who cares about a shootout

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Good chance we’re 5th last by the end of the night thanks to that useless loser point.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Ill take them better then a win, and it shows we bust a** all game and lose in a shootout. who cares about a shootout

Maybe if it’s Tkachuk or Batherson scoring. Goals by Namestnikov, Ennis, and Tierney don’t do much for me.