Prospect Info: The 2016 Draft Thread [Draft Lottery April 30th]

[Soli]

[fieldset=2015-2016 LEAGUE STANDINGS]

RK | TEAM | GP | W | L | OT | PTS | ROW
26th|

|71|27|32|12| 66 |23
27th|

|72|29|35|8| 66 |24
28th|

|75|29|39|7| 65 |25
29th|

|72|29|37|6| 64 |27
30th|

|71|25|35|11| 61 |19

[/fieldset]

​

Last Thread: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1927235

Some useful links:

Bob McKenzie's Mid-Season Draft Rankings

prosportstransaction's Draft Order and Pick Tracker

Click to read more...

 

[PKSpecialist]

Just finished my first mock draft attempt of the year and thought I would let you all flame away at my Oiler picks. I will post the pick, and the five guys drafted after for debate.

1.(3) - D - Jakob Chychrun - Sarnia Sting - If the Oilers find the defenseman they are looking for through a trade leading up to the draft, I would switch this pick to Puljujarvi, but I can't see a scenario where drafting at 3 and having not found a trade partner that they don't draft the top D available. (C-Michael McLeod, RW-Jesse Puljujarvi, LW-Pierre-Luc Dubois, D-Olli Juolevi, LW-Matthew Tkachuk)

2.(33) - LW - Brett Howden - Moose Jaw Warriors - Reality is he probably tops out as a 3rd line winger, but he plays a 200 foot game and does have some offensive potential. Has the size and grit we are looking for.(D-Sean Day, LW-Vitaly Abramov, D-Jacob Moverare, G-Carter Hart, D-Cameron Dineen)

3.(63) - RW - Nicholas Caamano - Flint Firebirds - Another large winger who skates well and does his best work right around the net.(D-Max Lajoie, LW-Simon Stransky, C-Adam Mascherin, RW-Cliff Pu, D-Kale Clague)

4.(93) - D - Adam Fox - US NTDP - US NTDP - Right shooting offensive defenseman who is a little shy in the size department. (C-Matt Filipe, RW-Janne Kuokkanen, C-Matthew Boucher, LW-Nick Pastujov, LW-Tanner Kaspick)

Two notes before the flaming begins because I am sure that the questions will arise.
1. I am still quite high on Sean Day. He has had a tough season with some off ice problems, but with his size and skating combo, I would take a chance on him early in the second and hope my development team could get the max out of him)
2. I am not high on Kale Clague. He has probably slipped the furthest in the draft for me, and I just don't think he has the size to be a reliable defender in his own end, and he isn't dynamic enough offensively to outweigh that.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Just finished my first mock draft attempt of the year and thought I would let you all flame away at my Oiler picks. I will post the pick, and the five guys drafted after for debate.

1.(3) - D - Jakob Chychrun - Sarnia Sting - If the Oilers find the defenseman they are looking for through a trade leading up to the draft, I would switch this pick to Puljujarvi, but I can't see a scenario where drafting at 3 and having not found a trade partner that they don't draft the top D available. (C-Michael McLeod, RW-Jesse Puljujarvi, LW-Pierre-Luc Dubois, D-Olli Juolevi, LW-Matthew Tkachuk)

2.(33) - LW - Brett Howden - Moose Jaw Warriors - Reality is he probably tops out as a 3rd line winger, but he plays a 200 foot game and does have some offensive potential. Has the size and grit we are looking for.(D-Sean Day, LW-Vitaly Abramov, D-Jacob Moverare, G-Carter Hart, D-Cameron Dineen)

3.(63) - RW - Nicholas Caamano - Flint Firebirds - Another large winger who skates well and does his best work right around the net.(D-Max Lajoie, LW-Simon Stransky, C-Adam Mascherin, RW-Cliff Pu, D-Kale Clague)

4.(93) - D - Adam Fox - US NTDP - US NTDP - Right shooting offensive defenseman who is a little shy in the size department. (C-Matt Filipe, RW-Janne Kuokkanen, C-Matthew Boucher, LW-Nick Pastujov, LW-Tanner Kaspick)

Two notes before the flaming begins because I am sure that the questions will arise.
1. I am still quite high on Sean Day. He has had a tough season with some off ice problems, but with his size and skating combo, I would take a chance on him early in the second and hope my development team could get the max out of him)
2. I am not high on Kale Clague. He has probably slipped the furthest in the draft for me, and I just don't think he has the size to be a reliable defender in his own end, and he isn't dynamic enough offensively to outweigh that.

Here's where you lose me. I would much rather go for a higher risk guy that has higher potential. Going with the 'safe' player is how we end up with David Musil instead of Rattie, Grimaldi, Jurco, Jenner, Khoklachev, Rask, etc etc etc.

Go with a guy like DeBrincat or Benson instead. Draft for the high ceiling.

If you draft a guy with a high end potential of top 6 forward and he only hits bottom sixer, oh well. Still have Matt Read, for example.

Draft a guy with bottom six potential and he doesn't hit it, you've got yourself Ryan Hamilton.

 

[PKSpecialist]

Here's where you lose me. I would much rather go for a higher risk guy that has higher potential. Going with the 'safe' player is how we end up with David Musil instead of Rattie, Grimaldi, Jurco, Jenner, Khoklachev, Rask, etc etc etc.

Go with a guy like DeBrincat or Benson instead. Draft for the high ceiling.

If you draft a guy with a high end potential of top 6 forward and he only hits bottom sixer, oh well. Still have Matt Read, for example.

Draft a guy with bottom six potential and he doesn't hit it, you've got yourself Ryan Hamilton.

Debrincat and Benson are both gone in the first round in my draft. I know what you are saying, but Howden does have high potential, AND he's safe.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Debrincat and Benson are both gone in the first round in my draft. I know what you are saying, but Howden does have high potential, AND he's safe.

Fair enough. I could see Benson falling pretty easily with the injuries he's had this year, and teams might be put off by DeBrincat's size, but I'd be ecstatic if we could grab either one in the 2nd.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

I'll do a mock scenario, too. With Trades?

-Purcell to Florida for 81st overall.
-Yakupov to Ottawa for 44th overall and Thomas Chabot.
-4th overall to Arizona for 9th overall and 39th overall.



9-Olli Juolevi- D - Helsinki, FIN, 6'2" 182 lbs. I'd also take Sergachev/Chycrun or even Fabbro but Finns are the flavor of the month. Even Fabbro.

34-Rasmus Asplund - C/LW - Filipstad, SWE, 5'11" 176 lbs. He is reportedly a beast in transition. I'd like to see dynamic player we can take a couple years with in the system.

39-Taylor Raddysh - RW - Toronto, ON, 6'2" 198 lbs. McDavids teammate in Eerie and Midget. 56pts/39 games in second year with Eerie and earned the promotion to the top line. Most importantly is learning how to play with two elite scorers as a complimentary player.

44-Givani Smith - LW - Thornhill, ON, 6'1" 196 lbs. Steak dinner of a player. Has been the best player on the Guelph Storm since they exploded. Reminds me of a Hendricks-Penner hybrid with similar upsides. Seems bigger then his measurements suggest.

64-Filip Gustavsson- G - Skelleftea, SWE, 6'2" 185 lbs. Note to self; never google this again.

81-Marco Miranda- LW - Dubendorf, SUI, 6'2" 194lbs. That's right, Soli.

94-Brandon Hagel- Token good'ol Alberta boy.

124-Tobias Eder- Token German.

154-Lukas Doudera- Token good'ol Slovak.

 

[PKSpecialist]

Here's where you lose me. I would much rather go for a higher risk guy that has higher potential. Going with the 'safe' player is how we end up with David Musil instead of Rattie, Grimaldi, Jurco, Jenner, Khoklachev, Rask, etc etc etc.

Go with a guy like DeBrincat or Benson instead. Draft for the high ceiling.

If you draft a guy with a high end potential of top 6 forward and he only hits bottom sixer, oh well. Still have Matt Read, for example.

Draft a guy with bottom six potential and he doesn't hit it, you've got yourself Ryan Hamilton.

I do find it odd the comparisons you used here. I think most would say that Howden has top 6 potential as a power forward, but as I suggested, "realistically" he will be a third liner such as Matt Read. The funny thing though is that the real comparable In your swing for the fences pick is Boone Jenner. His numbers in junior in his draft season were eerily similar to where Howden is. Their scouting reports are very similar where leader, two-way and versatile are used to describe them. Jenner was the consensus pick by this board(I personally wanted Victor Rask but was on an island there). If we are to pick Howden, and he turns into what Jenner has become, that's a great second round pick. The reason I like Howden more than say an Abramov, is that while Abramov has a higher offensive ceiling, he won't play in the NHL unless he gets into a top 6 role, whereas Howden is less likely to play top six, he is very likely to be a bottom six.

 

[oStealthKiller*]

The top 3 is a tier above the rest. Under no circumstances do you deviate from Matthews Laine pulju there.

If we go dman we will trade back and I don't know if the gap(if any) between chychrun and julo and sergaechev(?) is worth taking chychrun high anyway. It seems that chychrun may end up dropping anyway, he isn't what everyone thought he was and if that's the case, trading back to 5-10 makes more sense.

 

[Cerebral]

What picks do we actually have in this draft and which ones do we lose for bringing in McLellan and Chiarelli?

 

[BarDownBobo]

Just finished my first mock draft attempt of the year and thought I would let you all flame away at my Oiler picks. I will post the pick, and the five guys drafted after for debate.

1.(3) - D - Jakob Chychrun - Sarnia Sting - If the Oilers find the defenseman they are looking for through a trade leading up to the draft, I would switch this pick to Puljujarvi, but I can't see a scenario where drafting at 3 and having not found a trade partner that they don't draft the top D available. (C-Michael McLeod, RW-Jesse Puljujarvi, LW-Pierre-Luc Dubois, D-Olli Juolevi, LW-Matthew Tkachuk)

2.(33) - LW - Brett Howden - Moose Jaw Warriors - Reality is he probably tops out as a 3rd line winger, but he plays a 200 foot game and does have some offensive potential. Has the size and grit we are looking for.(D-Sean Day, LW-Vitaly Abramov, D-Jacob Moverare, G-Carter Hart, D-Cameron Dineen)

3.(63) - RW - Nicholas Caamano - Flint Firebirds - Another large winger who skates well and does his best work right around the net.(D-Max Lajoie, LW-Simon Stransky, C-Adam Mascherin, RW-Cliff Pu, D-Kale Clague)

4.(93) - D - Adam Fox - US NTDP - US NTDP - Right shooting offensive defenseman who is a little shy in the size department. (C-Matt Filipe, RW-Janne Kuokkanen, C-Matthew Boucher, LW-Nick Pastujov, LW-Tanner Kaspick)

Two notes before the flaming begins because I am sure that the questions will arise.
1. I am still quite high on Sean Day. He has had a tough season with some off ice problems, but with his size and skating combo, I would take a chance on him early in the second and hope my development team could get the max out of him)
2. I am not high on Kale Clague. He has probably slipped the furthest in the draft for me, and I just don't think he has the size to be a reliable defender in his own end, and he isn't dynamic enough offensively to outweigh that.

If he doesn't go in the first round I'd like the Oil to take Carter Hart with their second. Local product and he's putting up unreal numbers this year. Also mid August birthday so he's one of the youngest players in the draft.

 

[Delicious Pancakes]

What picks do we actually have in this draft and which ones do we lose for bringing in McLellan and Chiarelli?

Oilers already lost a 3rd rounder in 2015 draft for McLellan. Boston gets Oilers 2nd rounder in 2016 or 2017 at Edmonton's discretion.

Otherwise they have all their picks.

 

[PKSpecialist]

If he doesn't go in the first round I'd like the Oil to take Carter Hart with their second. Local product and he's putting up unreal numbers this year. Also mid August birthday so he's one of the youngest players in the draft.

I was really big on Hart earlier, and would have taken him in the 20-25 range. However,
I have really scrutinized him lately and I question his puck tracking ability. He makes the first save almost all the time, but when the puck gets behind the net, he seems lost. Only one small detail that may be easily fixed, but I have dropped him out of my first round because of it. I like Mikhail Berdin almost as much, just wish I could see him more, and Evan Fitzpatrick is rising fast for me.

 

[nexttothemoon]

Anyone with a mathematical background can calculate these odds?...


If the Oilers finish 28th overall... what are the combined odds that they pick top 3?

 

[thadd]

Anyone with a mathematical background can calculate these odds?...


If the Oilers finish 28th overall... what are the combined odds that they pick top 3?

Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think that the odds have changed. They don't do 3 lottery draws, do they?

I'm under the impression that they run it once and upto 3 teams can draw in in front of the last place team... I could be wrong, though.

 

[yukoner88]

if Oilers are picking between 2nd n 4th, Chiarelli should hold an auction for the 1st round pick and see if anyone offers up any juicy defensemen that can make an immediate impact here

 

[IAGTTAYM]

Anyone with a mathematical background can calculate these odds?...


If the Oilers finish 28th overall... what are the combined odds that they pick top 3?

 

[Spawn]

Thanks for that. So in years past before they changed anything, the 30th placed team was nearly 50/50 to get the top pick.

Today, they're nearly 50/50 if they even receive a top 3 pick lol.

The top 3 picks up for grabs really does change things. Oilers finish 3rd worst in the league, and their most likely pick is 5th.

But, I really want the Oilers to go on a run and climb the standings to say 8-10 and win one of the picks. Not because I want that pick, but just for the hilarity of watching yet another meltdown on this message board and in the media.

 

[TheBrew]

I like the odds for the 21st ranked team to get into the top 3... 11.5%

 

[thadd]

These odds are way too top heavy... like the 4th place team has a 30% chance at getting a top 3 pick... am I right by thinking of it like that?

On the other hand a 3.4% chance for the 17th place team to get a top 10 pick is way too small.

I'd like combined odds for 1st-3rd for 17th to be around 12%.
It'll give more teams incentive to be sellers so we can see more player movement and it'll further discourage GMs from handing out so many NTCs.

 

[BlowbyBlow]

These odds are way too top heavy... like the 4th place team has a 30% chance at getting a top 3 pick... am I right by thinking of it like that?

On the other hand a 3.4% chance for the 17th place team to get a top 10 pick is way too small.

I'd like combined odds for 1st-3rd for 17th to be around 12%.
It'll give more teams incentive to be sellers so we can see more player movement and it'll further discourage GMs from handing out so many NTCs.

As much as people (anti-tank movement) are against a 30th place team or even 28th place getting a #1 pick. Rewarding any team out of the top 8, the high likelihood of a top 3 would be really unfair.

Things have changed more in reflection of the game.
More teams can be buyers than ever before. It used be amazing that a team like Edmonton (a bubble team) would be a buyer at the deadline, even if they were in the playoffs they just had no stake in the game, when they were competing with Colorado/Dallas/NYR/Philadelphia for a player.

There is parity in that sense G.M.s will look for the best deal available (provided there disclosing who is available; i.e. Stamkos)

Free Agency - once again meant (because picks had less value) a player was more willing to go to a high priced team, because they knew that team could buy players to come in.

Draft - was the only time a garbage team could get a player.

If the system right now leveled out the field things would just reverse and mean that instead of free agency/trade deadline players would be less inclined to go to a bottom team, cause there chances would be just the same or close to that of a team that barely made the playoffs.

 

[Jumptheshark]

The more I see tkchuck play (look on line to find) the more I say draft him and trade either Eberle or nuge to address the d

 

[jukon]

I had a dream we won the draft lottery and traded the pick for OEL.

 

[Stud Muffin]

I had a dream we won the draft lottery and traded the pick for OEL.

OEL and Rieder for Matthews

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

I had a dream we won the draft lottery and traded the pick for OEL.

that's a BNL1!!!!

 

[HeavyHitter99]

A player that stands out to me every time I scout his team is Dman David Quenneville from the Medicine Hat Tigers. He's a speedy and small offensive dman (5'8" ~185 lbs) but he has fantastic offensive tools and a wicked slap shot. He's 3rd on his team in points with 38 in 48. Despite his size he displays a willingness to battle on the boards and he can actually throw some pretty good checks too. His Defensive zone play does need some fine tuning as he does occasionally have giveaways and he does need to get stronger obviously if he hopes to play pro. He is a -17 on the season which isn't as bad as it sounds with some of his teammates being in the -30s.

Now before everyone replies to me with "we don't need tiny dmen blah blah blah" just think about this. Central Scouting I think has him ranked around 200th, I don't know about you guys but in the last or even 2nd last round of the draft I would definitely take a defender with impressive offensive tools, legit production and that has been dominant at every level. He's also an Edmonton boy for those that like that.

Just my 2 cents