Prospect Info: The 2015 NHL Entry Draft Part II

S E P H · Feb 1, 2015

Getting close to 1,000, so I decided to start a new one with a new poll. FYI I decided to choose the players from 12th to 21st from Bob McKenzie's list.

Part I: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1731377

LOCATION

tigervixxxen · Feb 1, 2015

Everyone is going to take Provorov.

The 8-16 range might have been more unpredictable.

RockLobster · Feb 1, 2015

I will re-open this thread when the other gets closed for good--it still has 20 posts to go.

Frenchy · Feb 2, 2015

BaconNater · Feb 2, 2015

You have to take Konecny. Because what if after we draft him he has a 3-4 inch growth spurt? Steal of the century! :sarcasm:

Nihiliste · Feb 2, 2015

shadow1 said:
I'd argue they're missing a playmaker a lot more than a goal scorer. In the system they have guys like Hishon and Sgarbossa who are pretty good playmakers, but it's hard to see where they fit on the Avs full time in the future.

On the team they have Mack and Duchene who can make good passes, but aren't really true playmaking types looking to setup teammates all the time. Landy can do this a bit, but again it's not his true style of play.

They're missing a Stastny type, and even O'Reilly can play this style, and they're about to lose him as well. Plus Tanguay isn't too far off from retirement/reduced role.

I think there's a pretty big hole in terms of a high end playmaker that plays the game with patience, and slows it down to use his vision and puck skills to setup guys like Mack, Duchene, and Landy. Not that they need to draft this over a goal scorer like Crouse or something, but it's definitely a bigger missing element IMO.

This is why I like Rantanen and Svechnikov. Rantanen is a big, strong forward who can shield the puck along the boards and loves to make plays, I think he would mesh well with Mackinnon. Svechnikov is dynamic and creative all over the ice and is the type of winger that has historically meshed well with Duchene. He's a bit more balanced in terms of goalscoring versus playmaking and I think that suits Duchene.

Nihiliste · Feb 2, 2015

Flow said:
You have to take Konecny. Because what if after we draft him he has a 3-4 inch growth spurt? Steal of the century!

I wonder if its unethical to calculate his mean parental height and do x-rays to determine bone age before the draft. :laugh:

tigervixxxen · Feb 2, 2015

I mentioned it last thread and have to say it again. Opinions in Barzal?

StayAtHomeAv · Feb 2, 2015

From that list I would go with Bittner. I like Provorov, but if we go Dman in the first I want a guy that can compete with Bigras as our best prospect. Hanifin is the only guy I think that highly of. Bittner seems like a good overall player. Good puck control, good passer, accurate shot, solid defender, good around the boards. I see him being a very good possession player with size and skill.

Nihiliste · Feb 2, 2015

tigervixxxen said:
I mentioned it last thread and have to say it again. Opinions in Barzal?

If Pracey were still head scout I think he would be a slam dunk for our pick. Not knowing who's going to have the most influence on our draft now, it's hard to say. He's obviously a great player, and if he's there at 10-11 I think you have to consider him. The idea of drafting yet another 5'11"-6'0" skilled Canadian center isn't super exciting but I could see him potentially being viewed as the BPA there.

henchman21 · Feb 2, 2015

tigervixxxen said:
I mentioned it last thread and have to say it again. Opinions in Barzal?

He is in that 7-12 tier of players, but I would put him at the very tail end of that group and would take a couple outside that tier over him personally. Though I don't think you could say he was a bad pick anywhere 10 and up. I worry about his finishing ability (I really don't think he will ever be a consistent 20g scorer in the NHL) and frame a bit, but the latter shouldn't be a real issue with his skating (much more powerful on his skates than his size would suggest).

member 116861 · Feb 2, 2015

henchman24 said:
He is in that 7-12 tier of players, but I would put him at the very tail end of that group and would take a couple outside that tier over him personally. Though I don't think you could say he was a bad pick anywhere 10 and up. I worry about his finishing ability (I really don't think he will ever be a consistent 20g scorer in the NHL) and frame a bit, but the latter shouldn't be a real issue with his skating (much more powerful on his skates than his size would suggest).

Sounds similar to Matt Duchene.

henchman21 · Feb 2, 2015

BrickAHL said:
Sounds similar to Matt Duchene.

Not a bad comparison... Duchene is a better finisher and always has been. Barzal thinks the game at a higher level than a pre-draft Duchene.

CalderKing21 · Feb 2, 2015

I would hope that either Roy, Rantanen or Werenski falls if we pick #12

Foppa2118 · Feb 2, 2015

henchman24 said:
Not a bad comparison... Duchene is a better finisher and always has been. Barzal thinks the game at a higher level than a pre-draft Duchene.

Duchene is such an enigma with his shot. I can't tell if it's his shot selection, how consistent he is with his accuracy, how much pressure from D men affect his shot, or if it's all just mental pressure he puts on himself affecting him. I can't imagine it's his stick blade, the guy knows more about stick blades than anyone else in the league.

He's demonstrated he's capable of being a very good finisher, and has all the tools to do so, he just goes in these prolonged slumps where he couldn't find a hole in a goalie to save his life. It's so odd.

S E P H · Feb 2, 2015

BrickAHL said:
Sounds similar to Matt Duchene.

Konecny is more similar to Duchene than Barzal is. True that Barzal is a speed demon like Duchene, but Barzal's playmaking extraordinaire is A LOT closer to Patrick Kane than anything Duchene. I also think Konecny's stickhandling is much better than Barzal's and again closer to Duchene.

Barzal was quite easily the best 16 year old I have seen in the dub (not including Nolan Patrick, Steel, or Benson). But I am very some iffy complaints to his game especially his point production. Specifically the amount of points he gets on the power play. For a defenseman player, having a ton of powerplay points and secondary assists is fine because it leads to strengths in certain aspects of his game like passing, his first pass out of the zone, and the ability to slow or speed the play up as the quarterback on the PP. Concerning forwards though, their point total could be a direct correlation of a unstable powerplay percentage and having amazing powerplay partners, talent, and chemistry a lot like the Portland Winterhawks the past 3-4 seasons.

Personally speaking I put a much important value in percentage of points among 5 on 5 for junior forwards than points on the power player. Among using this data (which was posted a while back in the prospect) and watching the players, you can describe an example of two players in Rattie versus Petan among actual skill set. Petan's ability to quarterback the powerplay as a forward is most marvelous, especially on the half wall, but it really is not rare seeing it into today's NHL. Speificially Patrick Kane, Nicklas Backstrom, and Jakub Voracek/Claude Giroud are amongst the best forwards amongst the powerplayer. Petan's vision, passing ability, and stick work a lot like Patrick Kane made the W'Hawk's PP the deadliest in the past three seasons. It also made Ty Rattie a center point in the three headed monster of 100+ point seasons. You can clearly see that Rattie was an instrument of Petan's talent, I would say that Rattie benefited from playing with Petan. Now I am not saying Ty is a bad player, but probably one whom drafted higher than he was supposed to (IMO). I still think he was a legitimate second round player, but not a top ten ranging from 31 to 41.

And that is why am I sort of iffy on Barzal, he gets too many of his points on the power play the last few seasons (have not checked this season). With Shea Theodore being the main unit leading to plays on the quarterback, Barzal doesn't really do a concerning of controlling the play. Yes he has superb passing ability to pass across ice and to set up player for the final one timer or tap in...but not enough of controlling his own play 5 v 5 or being the center focal point where all plays start with him. Picture it in this illustration, Theodore is the train yard and makes the trains while Barzal is the engine which brings the trains out onward to their journey.

I am being over critical to Barzal's game, he still brings a lot of aspects and talent to his game, but I would like to see him create more for himself and his teammates 5v5.

I did not proof read this post so expect wrong sentence structures.

tigervixxxen · Feb 2, 2015

What's the best place to see 5 on 5 vs PP points?

R S · Feb 2, 2015

tigervixxxen said:
What's the best place to see 5 on 5 vs PP points?

Have to track it manually.

Since SEPH is adamant about the ratio of PPA he puts up, I would be curious to see what kind of numbers he comes up with for it. I've been curious too, but haven't taken the time to do it myself.

R S · Feb 2, 2015

Out of that list, I take Provorov easily. I still think I want us to take a D in the first round, so that would be my choice if he was still there at 12.

Would also be fine with Bittner, Merkley or Conner.

Foppa2118 · Feb 2, 2015

R S said:
Out of that list, I take Provorov easily. I still think I want us to take a D in the first round, so that would be my choice if he was still there at 12.

Would also be fine with Bittner, Merkley or Conner.

I've liked what I've seen from Provorov as well.

I'm curious, as someone who's watched a lot more games of him and other WHLer's than I have, what's your impression of him, compared to your impression of last years draft class during their draft year? Guys like Fleury, Honka, and Sanheim? Or maybe a guy like Morrissey the year before?

R S · Feb 2, 2015

R S said:
Have to track it manually.

Since SEPH is adamant about the ratio of PPA he puts up, I would be curious to see what kind of numbers he comes up with for it. I've been curious too, but haven't taken the time to do it myself.

I just looked at the numbers myself...

Barzal has 7 PP assists this year. That means he has 9 at either EV or SH for a total of 16. So just under 44% of his assists have been on the PP. Last year only 13 of his 40 assists were on the PP. That's only 29.5%.

Nick Merkley on the other hand....he leads the WHL with 27 PP assists, making up 50% of the assists he has all season.

R S · Feb 2, 2015

Foppa2118 said:
I've liked what I've seen from Provorov as well.

I'm curious, as someone who's watched a lot more games of him and other WHLer's than I have, what's your impression of him, compared to your impression of last years draft class during their draft year? Guys like Fleury, Honka, and Sanheim? Or maybe a guy like Morrissey the year before?

Hmmm.. It's hard to judge sometimes when comparing year to year.

I think he's such a different player than those 4, which also makes it tough. If he was closest to any of the 4 in style/substance it would probably be Morrissey.

As for as potential compared to those guys, I would probably say he would be 2nd on the list behind Morrissey.

Morrissey

Provorov
Fleury
Sanheim

Honka

Would be how I would rank them.

henchman21 · Feb 2, 2015

R S said:
I just looked at the numbers myself...

Barzal has 7 PP assists this year. That means he has 9 at either EV or SH for a total of 16. So just under 44% of his assists have been on the PP. Last year only 13 of his 40 assists were on the PP. That's only 29.5%.

Nick Merkley on the other hand....he leads the WHL with 27 PP assists, making up 50% of the assists he has all season.

Just adding to this... of the 7PP assists this year, 3 were primary and 4 were secondary.

IMO that production seems about normal for a junior player.

landy92mack29 · Feb 2, 2015

Highly doubt provorov makes it to the 12th pick or later. Russian factor be damned

Foppa2118 · Feb 2, 2015

R S said:
Hmmm.. It's hard to judge sometimes when comparing year to year.

I think he's such a different player than those 4, which also makes it tough. If he was closest to any of the 4 in style/substance it would probably be Morrissey.

As for as potential compared to those guys, I would probably say he would be 2nd on the list behind Morrissey.

Morrissey

Provorov
Fleury
Sanheim

Honka

Would be how I would rank them.

Yea Morrissey seemed like he might be a decent basis for comparison style wise. Maybe Provorov knows how to use his body more in the defensive zone than Morrissey? Not sure. Thanks.

Prospect Info: The 2015 NHL Entry Draft Part II

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