Blue Jays Discussion: Thank you, Gibby!

[Nineteen67]

I thought this narrative was "after the 2015 season when it was clear the roster configuration would never result in the world series"....or was that someone else who kept repeating that?

Check your spreadsheet

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Check your spreadsheet

Odd thing to say to an all-american, but ok.

 

[deletethis]

Very interesting. The profile you describe also sounds like the other Alex Gonzalez (also a former Jay).



Hilariously, though they were both very home run centric in terms of approach, neither hit 20 in a given season (minors or majors) until 27 and 30 years old, respectively. Neither was ever able to exclipse 60 XBH.

Smith accomplished both feats, while hitting .292 and slugging .508, with 2/3rds of his AB's coming in the FSL, where the average slugging % is .364.

JPA walked 96 times in 1745 PA's as a prospect, 38 of which came in his second stint in the PCL. Smith walked 40 times this season in 575 PA's.

Smith is definitely showing both more power and more discipline. And he's hardly fully baked.

More of a walk down memory lane. I remember holding out hope every year that Gonzalez would stop swinging so hard and take more pitches. I think there would even be the annual article in spring training about it and how Alex was going to change his approach at the plate. To this day, Alex is that one player I thought could have been much more, he took so many stupid hard hacks at the worst times.

 

[TheMadHatTrick]

Smith is definitely showing both more power and more discipline. And he's hardly fully baked.

More of a walk down memory lane. I remember holding out hope every year that Gonzalez would stop swinging so hard and take more pitches. I think there would even be the annual article in spring training about it and how Alex was going to change his approach at the plate. To this day, Alex is that one player I thought could have been much more, he took so many stupid hard hacks at the worst times.

I'm a big fan of Smith. One thing I hope he works on a bit is discipline. From watching him on video recently, he really likes to swing the bat. I mean he's gotten good results with this approach so he should like swinging, but he swing at virtually every pitch thrown to him from what I've seen.

 

[phillipmike]

Is there really a risk of Alford qualifying as a "Super Two"?

Blue Jays Notebook: Alford's delayed promotion carries future savings - Sportsnet.ca

Anthony Alford is expected to join the Toronto Blue Jays in Baltimore as soon as Monday, restarting his season after a two-week break in a somewhat unusual mid-September addition to a roster already well stocked with outfielders.

The 24-year-old’s addition comes later in the month “because we don’t have playing time for him,” general manager Ross Atkins explained via text. “We were originally doing the same for Reese McGuire but Russ (Martin) playing some third and having paternity leave changed that for Reese.”

Promoting Alford for the final two weeks “is to honour his commitment to being an elite teammate and our belief in him moving forward,” Atkins added.

Alford had been only one of two players on the Blue Jays’ 40-man roster not with the major-league team, along with fellow outfielder Dalton Pompey.

Kevin Pillar, Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez, Billy McKinney, Dwight Smith Jr., and Jonathan Davis are already up, but the Blue Jays have been using this month to both reward players for their work in the minor-league season, and to take closer looks at bubble players ahead of a 40-man roster crunch this winter.

While Alford certainly falls into the former category, by waiting an extra two weeks, the Blue Jays also limited the chances that he eventually qualifies as a Super Two player for arbitration should he eventually play two full seasons in the majors.

 

[Discoverer]

Blue Jays Notebook: Alford's delayed promotion carries future savings - Sportsnet.ca

I assumed his point was that it's not really worth worrying about.

 

[phillipmike]

I assumed his point was that it's not really worth worrying about.

Oh, i thought he was asking the question. Good point.

 

[The Nemesis]

Nice perm, Danny.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Does anyone really think that McKinney and Drury will have long MLB careers? I don't see it.

 

[Cloned]

Diaz and Grichuk are two veteran bright spots on an otherwise lost season.

 

[zeke]

Diaz and Grichuk are two veteran bright spots on an otherwise lost season.

these "vets" are the same age as some of the "prospects" we traded for.

 

[Cloned]

these "vets" are the same age as some of the "prospects" we traded for.

I meant it literally, as in players with multiple years of MLB service time.

 

[Suntouchable13]

TB just needs to go 7-6 the rest of the way to reach 90 wins but still miss the playoffs and not even be in any real race. Wow.

 

[Discoverer]

these "vets" are the same age as some of the "prospects" we traded for.

Yes, Merryweather is almost 27. We understand.

 

[stickty111]

Does anyone really think that McKinney and Drury will have long MLB careers? I don't see it.

Are you going to say this after Jansen struggles for a week as well?

 

[Nineteen67]

Does anyone really think that McKinney and Drury will have long MLB careers? I don't see it.

I went to game a few weeks ago and I noticed McKinney's arm wasn’t great, but he plays really hard, and gives all he can give. If he hits he’ll play somewhere.

 

[deletethis]

TB just needs to go 7-6 the rest of the way to reach 90 wins but still miss the playoffs and not even be in any real race. Wow.

That's what it was like to be a Blue Jays' fan 1998 through 2007 (although no 90 win seasons) : 8 3rd place finishes and 1 2nd place finish.

 

[Anthrax442]

That's what it was like to be a Blue Jays' fan 1998 through 2007 (although no 90 win seasons) : 8 3rd place finishes and 1 2nd place finish.

I fear we are heading back to the AL East purgatory again.

 

[Nineteen67]

I fear we are heading back to the AL East purgatory again.

If the top 2-3 prospects turn into superstars then they won’t. If they don’t, above .500 will be considered a good season.

 

[BlueForever75]

I fear we are heading back to the AL East purgatory again.

As a true fan you should be ok with this in the short term (2-3 years), keep developing our prospects and keep adding some so our organization isn't only successful for a 2-3 year span. I would rather do things right and be bad for 2-3 seasons, to allow us to be competitive and in the mix for 10 years!!!

 

[theaub]

That's what it was like to be a Blue Jays' fan 1998 through 2007 (although no 90 win seasons) : 8 3rd place finishes and 1 2nd place finish.

Yup

Winning 85-90 games while not being within 5 games of a playoff spot at any point after May 31 (the Rays this year) is basically the mid-2000 Jays in a nutshell.

 

[Garlando]

I agree that short-term losses aren't the end of the world, but I think the way that this management group has been adding talent like Grichuk/Diaz over the offseason and then the deadline acquisitions of Drury/McKinney etc. that they don't plan on having the real deep lows over the next few seasons wins wise. There is enough of a floor in the organization now that the waves of talent coming from the farm system over the next 2-3 years should push the team towards competitive viability right away assuming that the prospects don't crash and burn at the major league level. It's the same approach that teams like the Atlanta Braves have used to return to relevance quickly.

If the Jays are still struggling badly over the next 3 years, than the prospects have likely failed. It's going to be interesting to see how the Jays perform as 3 of the 4 other teams in the division, the Red Sox, Yankees, and the Rays, are talented organizations with large competitive timelines remaining.

 

[Discoverer]

Right now, Boston's timeline has about 2 years left before things start to look pretty dicey. That's not to say they can't figure things out and extend the window over the next couple years, but it looks pretty ugly beyond 2020 so far.

 

[BlueForever75]

I agree that short-term losses aren't the end of the world, but I think the way that this management group has been adding talent like Grichuk/Diaz over the offseason and then the deadline acquisitions of Drury/McKinney etc. that they don't plan on having the real deep lows over the next few seasons wins wise. There is enough of a floor in the organization now that the waves of talent coming from the farm system over the next 2-3 years should push the team towards competitive viability right away assuming that the prospects don't crash and burn at the major league level. It's the same approach that teams like the Atlanta Braves have used to return to relevance quickly.

If the Jays are still struggling badly over the next 3 years, than the prospects have likely failed. It's going to be interesting to see how the Jays perform as 3 of the 4 other teams in the division, the Red Sox, Yankees, and the Rays, are talented organizations with large competitive timelines remaining.

If 3 or 4 position players develop into viable everyday players from the group of Vladdy, Bichette, Alford, Smith, Biggio, Jansen, McGuire, Tellez etc... We are in a great position if players like Gurriel, Travis, Grichuk, Hernandez, McKinney and Diaz keep progressing and adding to team.

Where there is an unknown is on the pitching side. Other then Stroman, Sanchez, Borucki and Reid-Foley, I don't know what we have as sure fired prospects. Pannone has looked good but is he the real deal. Its up for debate that Borucki and Reid-Foley are.

The wildcard to get us back to prominence is going to be the pitching. Because positional players I think we will be ok. We always will have the cash flow to put back into the team via FA and trades as well.

This team is positioned to be competitive in the near future I believe, as long as the pitching pans out.

 

[zeke]

Fun to think of what Boston would look like if Cherington was still there and not Dombrowski.

They likely wouldn't have Sale, Price, Kimbrel, or Martinez, which means they probably wouldn't have a contending pitching staff, and would be missing arguably their best hitter.

On the other hand, they would still have these kids:

3B Shaw (28): MLB 1934pa, 110wrc+, 3.2war650
2B Moncada (23): MLB 856pa, 95wrc+, 2.1war650
OF Margot (23): MLB 1052pa, 85wrc+, 1.7war650
2B Asuaje (26): MLB 586pa, 75wrc+, -0.2war650
RH Kopech (22): AAA 126.1ip, 3.70era, 3.30fip, 3.41xfip
IF Dubon (23): AAA 358pa, 105wrc+
SS Guerra (22): AAA 464pa, 64wrc+
LH Allen (21): AA 121.0ip, 2.75era, 3.20fip, 3.57xfip
OF Basabe (21): AA 270pa, 111wrc+
RH Espinoza (20): ------ (18, A: 76.0ip, 4.38era, 2.99fip, 3.53xfip)
RH Pennington (23): A 32.1ip, 2.78era, 4.30fip, 3.87xfip
IF Basabe (21): A+ 249pa, 65wrc+
IF Coca (19): Rk+ 304pa, 85wrc+