Texas and Oklahoma joining the SEC

[KevFu]

I mean people still think they had a big hand in killing the BE.

Well, if you follow the money, it makes total sense as to why ESPN would do it.

ESPN owes $900 million on two contracts with the Big 12. ($840 by AAV on an 13-year contract, I'm assuming escalators) on the next four seasons of lame-duck status.
ESPN signed the AAC to a $1 billion, 12-year deal ($83.3 AAV) through 2032.

We know the Big 12 deal doesn't have clauses in it for membership loss, because they signed Grant of Rights; and ESPN's iron-clad deal is what saved them from breaking up last time.


The reports were the Big 12 TV rights on the open market would be worth about $8 million per school for what they sold to ESPN, instead of $20 million each AAV they got last time.

Option 1: Big 12 plays 4 more seasons, adds 2 or 3 from the AAC; the AAC takes 2 or 3 from C-USA.
ESPN resigns New Big 12 for $700 million from 2025-2032.
TOTAL: $2.7 billion for Big 12, AAC, and C-USA (all worth less than than signed for due to losing members)

Option 2: One more year of Big 12 contract; Offer new AAC $10 million per school, a raise over current AAC ($7.5) and projected Big 12 ($8) through 2032. C-USA stays the same.
TOTAL: $2.1 billion through 2032, AND you get Texas/Oklahoma in the SEC after one year instead of four.

Save $600 million for the SAME SCHOOLS? If you're ESPN, of course you TRY IT. The worst that can happen is what did: Big 12 calls you out and no one moves.

 

[KevFu]

I realize that makes me sound like a tin foil hat conspiracy theorist. But I've been talking college realignment for 20 years, and this one was crazy different than any others.


The initial rumor was that UT/OU reached out to the SEC. That was it. Everyone's reactions was in two camps:

1. Ignorant media/fans going nuts like they always do, drawing up all new conferences for everyone.
2. Knowledgeable media/fans (smaller percentage) saying "reaching out doesn't mean anything..."

Nowadays, the AD's job is to reach out everyone up the ladder once a year (Pacific called the WCC for 18 years before getting in!).

Day Two was normal reactions: SEC, OU, Texas all downplayed it with words that made everyone say "That wasn't exactly a denial, was it? There COULD be something to this. But what about Grant of Rights? Texas has long been against the SEC, thinking it's beneath them academically... what is going on here?"

All that was normal. That's how it always goes. Until...


ON DAY THREE, the AAC was saying they'd aggressively pursue Big 12 schools.
Beat writers in AAC markets were doing "Data Dump" stories about the value of remaining Big 12 schools and current AAC schools TV inventory; posting reports that the AAC was more valuable and the remaining Big 12 teams; and a quote from an AAC source saying "We have ESPN at the table already."

Day three/day four, we started seeing "The Big 12 could join the AAC" stuff. And that's just bananas.
NO ONE EVER talks like that. It's ALWAYS the other way around. I was reading everyone's reporting on rumors and fallout, and thinking "NONE OF THIS MAKES ANY SENSE, AT ALL."


The Big 12 cease and desist letter to ESPN (on Day Five) was eye-opening to me. Because I noticed how insanely fast everything was going, how ready for it all the AAC was, and how BACKWARDS all the talk about the fallout was. The C&D letter alleging an ESPN plot was the thread that tied it all together.


The AAC was less surprised by the first report than Texas A&M was. People were still talking about IF Texas A&M would be in favor if Texas, while the AAC "already has ESPN at the table."

ESPN's stories the first three days all had really bleak sounding language about the Big 12... "possibly break up" and "the next 48 hours will be critical" in them. When the news broke, there were all kinds of reports of Kansas and Iowa State reaching out to the Big Ten; Oklahoma State and TCU calling the Pac-12.

The Big 12 never had a single reason to consider breaking up, or joining the AAC, but all the reporting of the rumors made that sound like a normal possible outcome.

So the idea that ESPN advised the AAC to be ready to pounce makes total sense: Create the appearance that the Big 12 is on the verge of collapse so no one wants to be left out when the dominoes start to fall; and hope that paranoia about all the other rumors (they ESPN was likely feeding) and the "FEAR of dominoes" actually started the dominoes falling the way they wanted.

Because if it happened, they could save $600 million dollars and get Texas/Oklahoma into the SEC in a year instead of four.

 

[KevFu]

And of course, the big reason to believe ESPN was trying to orchestrate the demise of the Big 12 to save money:

The Big 12 publicly said so.

It's one thing for ME to sound like a conspiracy theorist, because I don't have a billion dollar contract with ESPN, and NEED A TV DEAL FROM THEM IN 2025. ESPN is spending 80% or more of the money that goes to college sports rights fees.

For the Big 12 to publicly call them out and threaten litigation is just an insane move when your two most valuable teams are leaving and you need to negotiation your next contract with them.

The only reason for the Big 12 to do it is: If they know/can prove ESPN is guilty. And even then, you privately attempt to sell your silence on the subject in exchange for X dollars in the next rights deal, FIRST. And if you get no where, you go public.

 

[KevFu]

NBC's college sports holdings are Notre Dame
FOX has the Big 12 / Big Ten / Pac-12 limited deals.
CBS has the Army/Navy game, and the Notre Dame at Navy game; and a Mountain West deal. They had the SEC, but just lost it to ESPN.

With the SEC leaving CBS, that means ESPN now has like 90% of the spending on college football.

The consolidation of power into 5 or 6 conferences with 70% of the coverage and 70% of the Bowl Bids is good for ESPN. Instead of having 8 balanced conferences each worth a big TV deal in the same range as the others; they've steered 30+ schools from the bottom half into the top half, so they can hand out huge deals to a few, and tiny deals to the rest.

 

[cutchemist42]

Latest news about the ACC/B1G/P12 is not good for the remaining B12 schools.....

 

[KevFu]

Latest news about the ACC/B1G/P12 is not good for the remaining B12 schools.....

Nah. It's all talk to try and fight the perception that "The SEC is college football and everyone else is worthless." Alliances mean nothing until there are stakes. Clemson, Florida State, USC or Cal would jump the SEC the second they're invited unless there's a financial component of their alliance.


Which, BTW, if you think I sounded like a conspiracy theorist before, some guy had a brilliant twitter thread on ESPN and their strategic business plan for college football/sports the last 20 years. He had one flaw in it and I found the item that ties that loose end together.

If you look at the performance of college football conferences from 1997-2007 (start of having a NCG), there's a balance to the major conferences: The six "BCS" conferences each won 1 to 4 titles each. Toss out the Big 8 title of Nebraska and it was almost perfect balance.

From 2007-present, the SEC has won 9, the ACC (Clemson) has won 2, Ohio State has won 1. How did the SEC become so dominant?

Many point to the megadeal the SEC signed with ESPN in 2008; but that math doesn't line up. Except it actually DOES because the Big Ten picked FOX to launch BTN with in summer of 2006. ESPN took a look at all the contracts coming up, the success and the number of people (aka TV viewers) in those regions

SEC: 2 titles and 56 million people, contract up first
Big 12: 4 titles, but only 41 million people.
Big Ten: 2 titles, tons of people, but just picked FOX for BTN
ACC: 1 title, tons of people, contract up second,
Big East: 1 title (by Miami, who's now ACC)
Pac 10: 1 title, late night time slots.

ESPN struck a deal with the SEC for just massive money that created "SEC on ESPN," the SEC Network, and after CBS picked one game ESPN owned everything else.
> Soon after, the SEC added Texas A&M and Missouri, raising their TV footprint to 87 million (and hurting the Big 12).

ESPN then struck a significant deal with the ACC (creating an ACC Network)
> The ACC raided the Big East again, increased their northeastern presence.

ESPN then split the rights for the Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac-12 with Fox at money much lower price tag to them than what the SEC got.
ESPN "saved" the Big 12 at the 11th hour by blowing up the Pac-16 plan and brokering the deal the let Texas have the Longhorn Network within the Big 12.
And of course, ESPN dropped their offer to the Big East by SIX TIMES the previous amount, prompting the conference to split in half.

Instead of a bidding war for six, relatively even major conferences, ESPN "advised" two conferences to expand so that they could cross two leagues off the list they had to bid on, just ignored the Pac-10 entirely, and formed the Longhorn Network at the expense of the rest of the Big 12 (I'm sure they tried to get Texas into the SEC, then but Texas looked down on the SEC academics); AND NOW, finally got Texas and Oklahoma into the SEC.


It SOUNDS like a conspiracy, but when you think about the ratios of viewers/success each conference HAD previously, and what each league's contracts would be worth if ESPN wasn't there advising the SEC and ACC to expand and there still WERE six equally balanced contracts, It would be 6x SEC prices for all of them. But it's clearly not.

And really think over everything you know about college football. The SEC is clearly the best, right? They have SEC speed, and Ohio State could never break through because the Big Ten was just slower than the SEC. Clemson is "like an SEC team." In the Big 12, they don't play defense, which is why the scores are so high. (People did STUDIES debunking the myth of SEC speed. It wasn't true, it never was, but ESPN kept harping on it constantly for five years straight.

And yet, you'd get to bowl season the first few years, and the SEC teams were SURPRISED their bowl games didn't go how they expected because all they heard was how great and fast the SEC was, and how slow the Big Ten was, and how the Big 12 didn't play defense; and how the ACC/Pac-12 just couldn't keep up.

But... Florida could only score 24 on Oklahoma; Utah beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl; South Carolina got out-raced by Iowa and UConn; Kentucky and Arkansas could barely survive against East Carolina and Boston College; Penn State shut down LSU; Va Tech and Florida State pummeled Tennessee and South Carolina; UCF beat Georgia 10-6; UNC beat Tennessee....

It took FIVE YEARS of ESPN's propaganda before the recruits listening to it all picked SEC schools and started making the prophecy true and the SEC actually did become the best football conference.

 

[KevFu]

And once again.... I KNOW HOW I SOUND typing that up.

But I'm not exactly the first person to state this.

Here's an article on the topic of the ESPN/SEC bias from 2014
The Worldwide Cheerleader: ESPN's Big-Money SEC Obsession

 

[joelef]

so the NCAA did nothing to stop the professionalization of college sports and the fans had no problem with it then

 

[golfortennis]

And really think over everything you know about college football. The SEC is clearly the best, right? They have SEC speed, and Ohio State could never break through because the Big Ten was just slower than the SEC. Clemson is "like an SEC team." In the Big 12, they don't play defense, which is why the scores are so high. (People did STUDIES debunking the myth of SEC speed. It wasn't true, it never was, but ESPN kept harping on it constantly for five years straight.

And yet, you'd get to bowl season the first few years, and the SEC teams were SURPRISED their bowl games didn't go how they expected because all they heard was how great and fast the SEC was, and how slow the Big Ten was, and how the Big 12 didn't play defense; and how the ACC/Pac-12 just couldn't keep up.

But... Florida could only score 24 on Oklahoma; Utah beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl; South Carolina got out-raced by Iowa and UConn; Kentucky and Arkansas could barely survive against East Carolina and Boston College; Penn State shut down LSU; Va Tech and Florida State pummeled Tennessee and South Carolina; UCF beat Georgia 10-6; UNC beat Tennessee....

It took FIVE YEARS of ESPN's propaganda before the recruits listening to it all picked SEC schools and started making the prophecy true and the SEC actually did become the best football conference.

The speed thing of Big Ten vs SEC was always easy to explain to anyone who had a few brain cells. It gets cold in the midwest the second half of the season. Has an SEC game ever been played in snow?

Maybe I'm naive, but I've never heard of anyone running faster in colder weather.

You may now return to your regularly scheduled programming.

 

[HisIceness]

Has an SEC game ever been played in snow?

Best example I can think of

2000 Independence Bowl in Shreveport, LA for those who are not familiar with this image, A&M was still a Big12 member at this time though.

 

[golfortennis]

Best example I can think of

2000 Independence Bowl in Shreveport, LA for those who are not familiar with this image, A&M was still a Big12 member at this time though.

But a)that was new year's eve, and b)a freak storm. End of December anything can happen, and central Florida can get frost in Jan Feb. But the reg season in late November rarely sees super cold temps like you would in the midwest.

 

[KevFu]

so the NCAA did nothing to stop the professionalization of college sports and the fans had no problem with it then

"The NCAA" is basically just committees of the membership, and staff employees who do some support stuff. Once the TV money got huge, the NCAA committees have lived in fear of "if the Big Football Schools left the NCAA to do their own thing, we'll be left behind..."

So they placated them, starting first with committee membership had to be 50% comprised of the seven power football conferences starting in the late 80s. And it slowly moved towards more and more power to the BCS.... the Power 5....

.... to the point where the "Power 5" are literally called "Autonomous Conferences" now. Essentially, the P5 IS THE NCAA.

It's not that the NCAA "didn't care," it's that once they lost the TV rights court case, it was inevitable that Football was in charge.

The biggest mistake the NCAA ever made was allowing the Bowl System to be independent from the NCAA postseason championship system. They should have destroyed/bought it out like they did the NIT; and second-biggest mistake was the same thing the NFL did at first, which was fear TV would destroy ticket sales, and thus no be able to stave off the court case for TV rights.

 

[jkrdevil]

So much of the business of College Football is like Late-19th century/Early 20th Century European Imperialism. Great powers on a quest to expand their territory and keep the other in check.

In this instance:
Big Ten: Great Britain. The biggest empire in terms of size and wealth. The other powers are striving to catch-up with.
SEC: Germany. A power that has emerged the last 10-20 years and is coming to dominate the continent. In an arms race with the Big Ten.
ACC: France. A traditional imperial power itself that has done some conquering (RIP Big East). But has the SEC sitting on its border and is worried about its aims.
PAC12: Russia. A great power that has been severely weakened by poor ineffectual leadership.
Big12: Austria-Hungary. A power made of a collection of entities that all want out. It instability threatens the landscape.

 

[KevFu]

And now it's like the Cold War era!

The Big Ten is like USA, with the Pac-12 as England; AAU members like UNC, UVA, Pitt, Ga Tech, Kansas, Iowa St, and some other academically inclined institutions like Notre Dame, Miami or Syracuse are like the other NATO members. Tulane, Buffalo and Rice are like New Zealand and Haiti, where they're definitely WITH NATO, but like ask to join the battle and get told "Nah, we're good"

The SEC is the USSR and the Big 12/half the ACC is like China. And the AAC is Southeast Asia or Cuba.

 

[mouser]

Panic levels:

SEC: no panic
B1G: no panic, maybe some longer term goals
PAC12: no panic, does it make sense to approach any Big12 teams?
ACC: mild worries that the SEC will go after Clemson and FSU
Big12: total meltdown panic

 

[KevFu]

ACC panic level is very low, because they signed Grant of Rights together through 2036.

GOR is important because it basically means the earliest the SEC could get TV rights to Oklahoma/Texas is 2025, which is why they're not joining for FOUR SEASONS. Well, Clemson and Florida State are locked in for another 15 years. Of course that can be negotiated out of; There's nothing that would prevent the schools from leaving for the SEC and the SEC TV package only including their ROAD CONFERENCE GAMES until GOR expires.... but that puts everyone in a No-Win situation. The schools aren't getting full share TV revenue from anyone until GOR expires, and their old conference owns inventory they don't want to use in their time slots. But the buyouts would be quite large, hence you don't leave until you can see the finish line.

 

[HisIceness]

ACC: mild worries if the SEC goes after Clemson and FSU

I'd upgrade that to big-time worries. Clemson leaving alone would kill the conference, not even the strength of the hoops programs would save it. It'd be pretty stupid if they decided to leave for a few extra dollars considering they have the easiest path in all of NCAAF but who the hell knows what the landscape will look like 5 years from now.

 

[mouser]

I'd upgrade that to big-time worries. Clemson leaving alone would kill the conference, not even the strength of the hoops programs would save it. It'd be pretty stupid if they decided to leave for a few extra dollars considering they have the easiest path in all of NCAAF but who the hell knows what the landscape will look like 5 years from now.

I edited my post. Was trying to say mild worries for the ACC that the SEC will attempt to poach Clemson and FSU. There are major financial downsides to doing so, making that scenario unlikely in the near future.

If the SEC actually did go after Clemson and FSU with a viable route to minimize the penalties then that quickly upgrades to total ACC panic.

 

[KevFu]

Yeah, the word "if" vs "that" is huge.

But like I said, GOR keeps them there until 2036, unless ESPN can buy their ways out of the ACC.

The ACC will ultimately face the same fate as the old Big East. My Cold War "War Games" scenario is likely how this plays out over the next 40 years.

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

Yeah, the word "if" vs "that" is huge.

But like I said, GOR keeps them there until 2036, unless ESPN can buy their ways out of the ACC.

The ACC will ultimately face the same fate as the old Big East. My Cold War "War Games" scenario is likely how this plays out over the next 40 years.

Yeah, but the GOR isn't that big of a stopper. Both schools have more than deep enough pockets to negotiate (pay) their way out of it

 

[KevFu]

Yeah, but the GOR isn't that big of a stopper. Both schools have more than deep enough pockets to negotiate (pay) their way out of it

Eh, not really. I mean, we all expect that Texas and Oklahoma are going to buy their way out of the Big 12 -- and the GOR they signed in the Big 12.

But as it stands now, they're EXIT FEES are $78 million, and they have $78 million of TV revenue withheld. To leave on time in four seasons.

To buy back their TV rights early is going to cost them what? Another $78 million ?

 

[mouser]

Pac-12 not looking to add any of the Big 12 schools:

Pac-12 statement on expansion

This pretty much means the Big 12 is going to survive, at least for now. I wouldn't be shocked if they start looking to add a couple teams from the AAC like Cincinnati and one of Houston, UCF, or South Florida. Also a possibility of going after BYU.

 

[Big Z Man 1990]

I'm glad the Pac-12 isn't expanding for two reasons:

1. They really should stick to the Pacific and Mountain Time Zones

2. It gives the Big 12 a chance at basically entering Pac-12 territory with the potential additions of Boise State and BYU, which would end the Pac-12's monopoly on Power 5 athletics in the West.

 

[KevFu]

Pac-12 not looking to add any of the Big 12 schools:

Pac-12 statement on expansion

This pretty much means the Big 12 is going to survive, at least for now. I wouldn't be shocked if they start looking to add a couple teams from the AAC like Cincinnati and one of Houston, UCF, or South Florida. Also a possibility of going after BYU.

For Pac-12, the value isn't there. For starters, they can't add two teams, they need four. If they expanded to the East, they'd need to switch to East/West divisions, and there's 4 pairs in the Pacific Time Zone, and they could put 2 Mountain pairs with 2 Central Pairs. The academics aren't there, either. They'd look for AAU members, but that's Iowa State/Kansas who defeat the purpose of big TV markets and really don't help football that much. Honestly if academics weren't the primary concern, they'd go Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU and Houston. But that won't fly adding zero AAU members. They were willing to take Tech and Oklahoma State.... in their six team plan with Colorado, Texas and Oklahoma and Texas A&M, who are all AAU members, but that ship sailed and they got Utah as an AAU partner with Colorado (the role Tech would have been in).


BYU is intriguing because of BYUtv. One of the main reasons BYU left the MWC was to put athletics on BYUtv; There's like 125 athletics events on BYUtv, like 400 hours; and the LDS church uses that as outreach, bringing non-Mormon sports fans to their network. The AD and President have made it clear that BYU athletics serves BYUtv, not the other way around.

Well, how's that gonna fly in the Big 12? Which just danced around that issue with Texas for a decade? ESPN's whole kick has been to eliminate T2 rights. Their last four contracts gives them EVERYTHING. Anything not on ESPN family of networks on TV is put on ESPN+. I think that's ultimately going to keep the Big 12 from inviting BYU.

 

[tank44]

For the Pac, there really isnt an incentive to take on anyone else from the BigXII. Georgraphy stretches out a lot farther for lower tier schools in their own states and that's a major issue if you're not football or basketball. IF Pac-12 needed to become Pac-14 I would think San Diego St & UNLV to fill in the largest 2 markets within their footprint. After that and if they need 2 more it's really grey. Boise State only gives you football and fills in a state but low academics & small market. BYU just doubles up the Utah/Salt Lake market with Utah. Colorado St does same with Colorado. New Mexico could work but they're pretty bad at football too. I'd almost think Fresno State and Nevada may be higher on the opportunity list than the others. Really plant their flag in California.

PacNW: Washington, Wazzu, Oregon, Oregon St
PacNorCal: Cal, Stanford, Nevada, Fresno St
PacSoCal: USC, UCLA, SD St, UNLV
PacMtn: Arizona, Arizona St, Utah, Colorado