Unfriendly Ghost
Kasper
Yeah, you do. I do want to point out that a fair amount of those defensemen you mention have been traded are highly-drafted defensemen. You seem to be glossing over that fact, as you never mention the draft status of the guys who got traded. Young stud defensemen have significant value (Seth Jones, Dougie Hamilton). The fact that they've been traded doesn't change anything.Do you?
[Stuff]
Anyway, you point out that many very good defensemen weren't drafted in the early first round. The traditional argument is that your best chance of getting those defensemen is by having early picks. So, you say, why couldn't we just draft those defensemen where they go (which, again, has not necessarily been the early first round)?
I think this is flawed logic. It's great that there are a number of good defensemen who are not early picks. But just because there is a surprisingly large group of them in existence across all teams does not tell us anything about your chance to draft one from that group. Those players are distributed across a bunch of drafts and a bunch of rounds, which makes your odds of actually drafting them quite low per pick. And even taking into account those late round boom picks, research done on this topic*** indicates that you're much, much, much more likely to draft a top 4 defenseman with a top 5 pick than even a top 15 pick.
The other problem is that to follow that strategy, you would pretty much need to draft nothing but defensemen (because, as we've established, these defensemen are not easy to draft, and you would need every pick to try to land one). If you look at the teams who ended up with the late round defensemen (and especially the picks they were taken with), very many of them were still very early picks. A lot of them were second round picks by non-playoff teams with tons of picks in that draft. You get the room to take chances on these players by having a ton of picks. So if this is really the philosophy you want the Wings to follow, you should encourage them to rebuild, like those teams were doing when they drafted those players, and get a ton of picks. That's pretty much in agreement with what I said. But if you try this strategy any other way (e.g. the Holland plan), you'll probably get burned. The Wings forward group is not strong enough to get away with this, and of course the Wings' draft position would be relatively weak in terms of landing that coveted top 4 defenseman anyway. So more picks good, but later picks bad.
Do not be fooled. Having a ton of picks is absolutely no substitute for drafting high. The Wings certainly need to draft more defensemen (and they could stand to have more picks), but sacrificing draft position to do it is an awful idea. And, certainly, the idea that the Wings are better off drafting defensemen where they are than in the top 5 is absolutely ridiculous.
***https://bluebulletreport.com/2016/03/21/expected-draft-value-of-a-first-round-defenseman/
https://bluebulletreport.com/2016/04/01/expected-draft-value-of-a-second-third-round-defenseman/
There's been other work on this topic, and for the most part the conclusion has been the same. I can find it later if people want. Some very bored people/ardent hockey fans/both actually do academic work on this stuff.
Now consider that you're much more likely in turn to get a player from the top 5 than the top 15...In other words, a team with one mid-first round selection would almost be as likely to select a defenseman that has a career ATOI of 18:30 minutes/game or better than a team that selects two defensemen in the second round and two defensemen in the third round.
Edit: This one is for all NHL players, but the different in likelihood of making the NHL plummets depressingly quickly as you go through the first couple of picks. There's a nice graph in there that I'll try to embed.
http://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf
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