Team(s) currently in playoff position that will miss

[madmike77]

Teams with high PDOs are good candidates, but I don’t see teams like Winnipeg and Toronto falling off that far. They should fall off some, but not enough to miss the playoffs.

Vegas is likely an easier pick. High PDO and playing above expectations. Devils would be another. Bad advanced stats and a high PDO but somehow they’re winning.

 

[Maukkis]

Atlantic: Tampa and Toronto can half-assedly complete the rest of the regular season and still stay in. I see Boston stealing the third spot from Detroit, though. (seriously - this is such a pathetic division.)

Metro: No comments, mainly due to the fact that no matter what I say, a good team would have to be left out, which leads to that team's fanbase being on my case.

Central: Both Chicago and Dallas could fall out, depending on how quickly Anaheim gets its shit together. For now, I'll say that ONE of those two won't make it in...

Pacific: ...in favour of the Flames, who are too stacked not to qualify for the postseason. I foresee Vancouver slowly sliding down the ranking, and Anaheim making a push, but with their injuries... it does not look too good.

 

[madmike77]

Atlantic: Tampa and Toronto can half-assedly complete the rest of the regular season and still stay in. I see Boston stealing the third spot from Detroit, though. (seriously - this is such a pathetic division.)

Metro: No comments, mainly due to the fact that no matter what I say, a good team would have to be left out, which leads to that team's fanbase being on my case.

Central: Both Chicago and Dallas could fall out, depending on how quickly Anaheim gets its **** together. For now, I'll say that ONE of those two won't make it in...

Pacific: ...in favour of the Flames, who are too stacked not to qualify for the postseason. I foresee Vancouver slowly sliding down the ranking, and Anaheim making a push, but with their injuries... it does not look too good.

I wouldn’t say the Flames are “stacked”. Their bottom 6 is pretty awful, especially the 4th line which gets dominated consistently. Hamonic also isn’t the player everyone seemed to think he was. Based on his play he should be on the bottom pairing.

That said, the team’s underlying stats are still pretty good and they’ve got an abnormally low shooting percentage, so there’s no reason to think they’ll slide much.

 

[Beautvillier]

goaltending is a huge red flag on long island. Halak and Greiss are just not guys you can expect to lead you into the playoffs. I think they need to make a move for a quality tender

greiss isn't a goalie i'm worried about, he's looked good in a lot of his starts despite what his sv% says, but jaro has been awful i'll give you that.

 

[Maukkis]

I wouldn’t say the Flames are “stacked”. Their bottom 6 is pretty awful, especially the 4th line which gets dominated consistently. Hamonic also isn’t the player everyone seemed to think he was. Based on his play he should be on the bottom pairing.

That said, the team’s underlying stats are still pretty good and they’ve got an abnormally low shooting percentage, so there’s no reason to think they’ll slide much.

Defensively, they are. Gio-Brodie-Hamilton-Hamonic-Stone-Kulak is a ridiculous group, and with Smith performing, they should be good. Bonus points for Gaudreau, who's carrying them offensively. They would benefit from a rental acquisition, though.

 

[Liferleafer]

Kinda off-topic but it's unfair how bad Atlantic is. Tampa and Toronto don't even have to play well to make the playoffs.

Tampa is currently first overall....Leafs tied for 3rd. What does the Atlantic division have to do with it?

 

[Saitama]

The Isles are kind of like the Jets, where they need to show some proof that they're legit for a longer period of time before they get the respect other teams already have. Which probably means making the playoffs and making some noise there for at least one year. The Jets are definitely getting a bit more respect than the Isles at this time however. The Isles are playing great and will start making some converts if they keep it up.

I've been a big fan of Barzal for a while now, happy to see him doing so good!

 

[Brobust]

Defensively, they are. Gio-Brodie-Hamilton-Hamonic-Stone-Kulak is a ridiculous group, and with Smith performing, they should be good. Bonus points for Gaudreau, who's carrying them offensively. They would benefit from a rental acquisition, though.

No, they're not ridiculously good. Giordano is a lynchpin that drags everything up and his elite play saves their skin a bit. But 2nd pair down, they are just average to bad.

 

[Maukkis]

No, they're not ridiculously good. Giordano is a lynchpin that drags everything up and his elite play saves their skin a bit. But 2nd pair down, they are just average to bad.

I don't exactly agree. I think that some of their defensemen are overrated, Hamilton in particular, but I have no problem admitting that they possess three top pairing defensemen. Hamonic and Stone aren't anything to scoff at either, even if they haven't performed as expected.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

Tampa is currently first overall....Leafs tied for 3rd. What does the Atlantic division have to do with it?

5-2 versus their crummy division
4-4 versus the much better Metro

 

[tony d]

Detroit and Vegas.

 

[randomhockeyfan]

Tampa is currently first overall....Leafs tied for 3rd. What does the Atlantic division have to do with it?

They don't need to play well to make the playoffs. They don't have the stress that other teams have. Unfair for teams in Metro and Central. Should be really 8 best teams in the conference that make the playoffs.

 

[Viqsi]

Kinda off-topic but it's unfair how bad Atlantic is. Tampa and Toronto don't even have to play well to make the playoffs.

They don't have to, but they're doing so anyways, so what's to complain about?

 

[daver]

Absolutely you can. You could compile a list of left wing lock's weekly SOS data to do a floating one (takes into effect the record of the team when the Leaf's faced them) or just take the final standings points of each team on the Leafs schedule at the end of the year and divide that by 82 to get an average

What part of "everyone else's schedule also needs to be adjusted" aren't you getting? You say the Leafs move from 3rd to 11th if you adjust their schedule for "weak competition" but that doesn't take into consideration that other teams could also apparently be benefiting from weak competition.

 

[njdevil26]

The scary thing about the Devils is that we've had 2 games against the Metro Division out of the first 24 games.... a loss against the Caps and a win against the Rangers.

Starting with a home and home with Columbus next week then a game at NYR, the Metro Division games will start to pile up and the landscape of the division could change dramatically. It's crazy to think 24 games in the Devils have not played the Penguins, Flyers, Islanders, Hurricanes, or Blue Jackets yet.

 

[PWJunior]

The Isles are kind of like the Jets, where they need to show some proof that they're legit for a longer period of time before they get the respect other teams already have. Which probably means making the playoffs and making some noise there for at least one year. The Jets are definitely getting a bit more respect than the Isles at this time however. The Isles are playing great and will start making some converts if they keep it up.

I've been a big fan of Barzal for a while now, happy to see him doing so good!

The Isles have been legit for a while with 2 100+ point seasons followed by last year's 94 points. It's not like they're finally breaking through, they did that. They are looking to take the next step and seriously contend.

Last year was a transition year with quite a bit of roster turnover and the Capuano firing. Obviously Barzal's emergence has had a huge change in the team's complexion, but the Isles have always had talent - Leddy is entering the Norris discussion, Tavares is Tavares, Bailey is killing it, Anders Lee is a legit goal scoring force, Ladd is healthy, Ho-Sang, etc.

They took a step back last year and have now taken 2 steps forward. This is a good team. Some would say a very good team. They haven't been beating cupcakes either with wins over St. Lous, Tampa Bay, and Nashville... in their buildings. They don't lose at home either.

The Isles get no respect in the national media because they probably get the least media coverage period in the NHL.

 

[BMOK33]

The scary thing about the Devils is that we've had 2 games against the Metro Division out of the first 24 games.... a loss against the Caps and a win against the Rangers.

Starting with a home and home with Columbus next week then a game at NYR, the Metro Division games will start to pile up and the landscape of the division could change dramatically. It's crazy to think 24 games in the Devils have not played the Penguins, Flyers, Islanders, Hurricanes, or Blue Jackets yet.

The Devils main issue is going to be games 55-82 with a roster loaded with rookies playing well who aren't used to that sort of game load. I could see them really falling off late because of that factor.

 

[Edmonton East]

Devils, Detroit

Vegas, Sharks

It is infuriating how screwed up this playoff format is. Pacific and Atlantic are hot garbage compared to the Metro and Central. At least the Central has 7 teams competing for 3 spots, while the stacked Metro has 8 competing for 3.

Under this format, realistically, the Devils don't have a shot at the playoffs this year. Under the old format I could at least have some hope of a 7/8 finish. Complained about these divisions when my team sucked and wasn't relevant. Now it's even more irritating.

 

[njdevil26]

The Devils main issue is going to be games 55-82 with a roster loaded with rookies playing well who aren't used to that sort of game load. I could see them really falling off late because of that factor.

At the same time though, we have yet to play one game with a full forward group. Zajac is still trying to get to game shape and get his timing back. We may have Johansson back by Friday and Palmieri is a few weeks away. So while the rookies should slow down a bit, we are getting 2 top six forwards back to take some of the pressure off the youngsters.