Team Overview - Present and Future

[WhiteLight*]

No, that's a 1 in 200 shot at winning the lottery. Winning the lottery moves you up 5 spots at most.

nope

 

[Benjamin]

No, that's a 1 in 200 shot at winning the lottery. Winning the lottery moves you up 5 spots at most.

Not anymore. Winning the lottery, no matter where you finished, means 1st overall.

 

[source]

No, that's a 1 in 200 shot at winning the lottery. Winning the lottery moves you up 5 spots at most.

Minor change to the rule: you can win the lottery even if you finish 9th, but with correspondingly low odds. The rule change creates no incentive or disincentive to tank.

 

[StefanW]

I can counter your argument with 3 words...

Brian ****ing Elliot:

1.56 sv% .940 GAA

Good game, bruh.

Btw, the players we had last year were exceptional defensively + very hardworking.

Turris
Alfredsson
Silfverberg
Smith
Zibanejad
Condra
Greening
Pageau
Daugavins
Latendresse(not really)
Methot(playing out of his mind)
Karlsson(best player in NHL)
Gryba(playing shutdown top pairing minutes like its nobody's business
Gonchar(put up Norris caliber season)

Pointing out that other goalies have also had career years does not counter my argument. Believing our D last year was in any way similar to the defensive force field put up by Hitchcock's teams in St Louis is HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAA.

But I digress. Goalies having save percentages of around .940 is always exceptional, and not sustainable. A good starting NHL goalie will be at around .920ish, give or take. The different of 20 point means 1 extra goal every 50 shots faced. We were giving up, on average, about 30-35 shots during the Pesky Sens portion of the season. If you do the math you discover that if our goalies were average we would have given up an extra 2 goals every 3 games or so.

Next, go through and count all of those games where we picked up a one goal win or a point to getting to OT in the pesky Sens part of the season. There were an awful lot of those games. We can't simply deduct 2/3 of those extra points because goals can happen in bunches in the same game. However, we had a 5 point cushion over the 9th place team when the season ended. Even if all of those extra goals were clustered into 5 out of those 25 or 30 odd games (depending on when you believe the Pesky Sens stuff started) we miss the playoffs.

 

[Magix]

Melnyk being cheap won't help no matter how many times this team is blown up or retooled.

Also why not wait till next season to see if spezza rebounds, half a season shouldn't throw out the vast steps he has taken these last few years and besides he has diminished value.

 

[Benjamin]

Melnyk being cheap won't help no matter how many times this team is blown up or retooled.

Also why not wait till next season to see if spezza rebounds, half a season shouldn't throw out the vast steps he has taken these last few years and besides he has diminished value.

I understand waiting for Spezza to rebound but what if he doesn't? He'll have even less value or just walks for nothing.

 

[Spez]

Anyone who seriously think this team will be bad enough next season to have a good chance at McDavid is nuts. There are more than a handful teams that are horrible and will still be horrible in the McDavid season. There is no way teams like Edmonton, Buffalo, Florida and Calgary to name a few will be better than Ottawa next season. It's way too early to be calling McDavid the next Crosby. He could easily be a bust like Daigle was and don't forget Daigle was ripping it up in his junior years and was supposed to be the next coming. Melnyk/Murray are not going to blow up the team and do a major shake up. They are just going to spin their tires trying to win the cup before Murray retires.

I also laugh at this notion that we were so great defensively like RKL says we were. All you have to do is put up the tape of Anderson's game 1 performance vs the habs to show you how great our so called defensive system was. A lot of those chances were not perimeter shots either. Also if we had a great defensive system it sure looked great vs the pens. A great defensive system was Bostons which actually shut down the pens. Rask played great but the bruins showed you how to play a system that can beat high flying teams. Our system was to try and grind games out while praying our goalies would bail us out. The only thing I would agree on is that the team was more hard working last season but that's it.

As for Tim Murray, it's way too early to be saying he's going to show how to do a successful rebuild. Their rebuild could easily be as bad as the Oilers and other countless failed rebuilds. In fact most rebuilds have actually failed than succeeded. The only true rebuilds that I can think of that worked were Pittsburgh, Chicago and St. Louis. Even then St. Louis hasn't won jack and won't win jack this season either if they have to rely on Halak/Elliott. They'll be no different than us during the JM era where we were happy with journeyman goalies rather than getting that star goalie that could put you over the top (ala Miller).

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I understand waiting for Spezza to rebound but what if he doesn't? He'll have even less value or just walks for nothing.

THERE is the real argument.

 

[Golden_Jet]

I understand waiting for Spezza to rebound but what if he doesn't? He'll have even less value or just walks for nothing.

hard to trade guys with NTC, plus he has friendly salary this year and next at 5/4 million.

 

[StefanW]

I understand waiting for Spezza to rebound but what if he doesn't? He'll have even less value or just walks for nothing.

The thing to keep in mind is if we don't wait for him to try to rebound we would be selling him at his lowest value. That makes no sense from an asset management point of view. It is far more reasonable to wait and see if he turns things around, and then make longer term decisions next season when he is in the last year of the current contract. That way if he is playing reasonably well and what he is asking for fits with our budget we keep him, and if not we can sell him off at a higher value than he has right now. Being a pending UFA with a low salary for players in his point range will actually make him very valuable next season.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Isn't the rule still that your draft position can only be pushed back one position beyond your place in the standings?

Or are the Oilers going to suddenly play well? If they finish 17th-to-last, that's a 1 in 200 shot at the 1st overall pick!

Thing is, if you're tanking to specifically get that #1 overall pick for the premier talent in the draft, odds are you're going to fail, no matter where you finish in the standings.

Yes, if a different team wins the lottery, you will only drop one spot (in the first round).

 

[Magix]

I understand waiting for Spezza to rebound but what if he doesn't? He'll have even less value or just walks for nothing.

I understand where you're coming from but if BM sells now we're going to get a crap return. No one will give up a blue chip or a combo of top4/top6. Might as well see if he recovers his previous form and then assess if he fits in with the team. We've seen him fit in Mac's system so the ability/attitude is there.

 

[Sensinitis]

I understand waiting for Spezza to rebound but what if he doesn't? He'll have even less value or just walks for nothing.

The other side to that if what if we trade him and he gets back to form?

He's been looking much much better the past few games is all I know right now.

 

[Benjamin]

I understand where you're coming from but if BM sells now we're going to get a crap return. No one will give up a blue chip or a combo of top4/top6. Might as well see if he recovers his previous form and then assess if he fits in with the team. We've seen him fit in Mac's system so the ability/attitude is there.

If thats the case then obviously keep Spezza. But if he gets full or near full value its hard to not consider it.

This is where the debate ends because we'll never know what offers Spezza could get.

 

[arglebargle]

They've done a pretty admirable job of drafting and signing college free agents to to fill out the roster. The main problem in the last 2 seasons is that they haven't done much more than break even with free agent signings.

They need to sign a few wingers to round out the top 6 this offseason.

LW
Vanek
Moulson

RW
Boyes
Vrbata
Hemsky

If they could get any 1 guy from each of those lists they would be a much better team. I'd also like it if they brought back Alfie or signed Jagr for RW but there's no way either of them would do it.

 

[supsens]

spezza will stay, with a cheap owner his 4 million cash pay, but 7 cap hit is gold on the books

 

[trentmccleary]

The other side to that if what if we trade him and he gets back to form?

It's been 12 years since we've drafted an 80+ point player.

We will have a better idea of how great our team would have been with a top-6 of Bonk, White, Fisher, Schaefer, Arvedson and Comrie.

 

[Frank Moses]

It's been 12 years since we've drafted an 80+ point player.

We will have a better idea of how great our team would have been with a top-6 of Bonk, White, Fisher, Schaefer, Arvedson and Comrie.

I seriously doubt people would be bashing Spezza as much as they have been if he was PPG or higher in terms of scoring, regardless of his shortcomings in the defensive zone.

Unfortunately, Spezza is having his worst offensive season since his rookie year, on top of being by far the worst defensive player on the team. To make matters worse, all of this is happening while he is the captain of the team.

 

[Kellogs]

nope

Not anymore. Winning the lottery, no matter where you finished, means 1st overall.

Minor change to the rule: you can win the lottery even if you finish 9th, but with correspondingly low odds. The rule change creates no incentive or disincentive to tank.

Forgot that was changed. Run along, nothing to see here...

Anyone who seriously think this team will be bad enough next season to have a good chance at McDavid is nuts. There are more than a handful teams that are horrible and will still be horrible in the McDavid season. There is no way teams like Edmonton, Buffalo, Florida and Calgary to name a few will be better than Ottawa next season. It's way too early to be calling McDavid the next Crosby. He could easily be a bust like Daigle was and don't forget Daigle was ripping it up in his junior years and was supposed to be the next coming. Melnyk/Murray are not going to blow up the team and do a major shake up. They are just going to spin their tires trying to win the cup before Murray retires.

I also laugh at this notion that we were so great defensively like RKL says we were. All you have to do is put up the tape of Anderson's game 1 performance vs the habs to show you how great our so called defensive system was. A lot of those chances were not perimeter shots either. Also if we had a great defensive system it sure looked great vs the pens. A great defensive system was Bostons which actually shut down the pens. Rask played great but the bruins showed you how to play a system that can beat high flying teams. Our system was to try and grind games out while praying our goalies would bail us out. The only thing I would agree on is that the team was more hard working last season but that's it.

As for Tim Murray, it's way too early to be saying he's going to show how to do a successful rebuild. Their rebuild could easily be as bad as the Oilers and other countless failed rebuilds. In fact most rebuilds have actually failed than succeeded. The only true rebuilds that I can think of that worked were Pittsburgh, Chicago and St. Louis. Even then St. Louis hasn't won jack and won't win jack this season either if they have to rely on Halak/Elliott. They'll be no different than us during the JM era where we were happy with journeyman goalies rather than getting that star goalie that could put you over the top (ala Miller).

Solid point, and just to add, the reasons why the rebuilds in Pittsburgh, Chicago and St-Louis worked was because there were external circumstances which led them to being bad. Their turnaround coincided with the stabilization of the franchises. Getting the high profile players like a Kane, Crosby, Toews or Malkin just accelerates the process at going from a bottom team to a contending team, but having a solid management group is the key to success eventually, even if you don't get those high profile players (like St-Louis).

Also to add about trading Spezza, is that because of his NTC we will never get fair value for him, even if he returns to 2011-2012 form. Given our history with what happened when Murray tried to trade Redden to SJ, and because of the Heatley fiasco, the only way any other GM will seriously entertain discussions to acquire Spezza, would be to have assurances that he's in fact willing to go to that destination. Given how difficult it is to acquire a star player to begin with (especially in a situation like Ottawa's), the leverage is squarely in the hands of other teams ensuring we'll never get fair value.

 

[source]

Thing is, if you're tanking to specifically get that #1 overall pick for the premier talent in the draft, odds are you're going to fail, no matter where you finish in the standings.

Yes, if a different team wins the lottery, you will only drop one spot (in the first round).

The whole idea of tanking just throws me off. This rule mostly benefits teams like the Leafs, who often fall just short of the playoffs.

If the Leafs finish 24th for the next 20 years, they have close to 100% odds of drafting a McDavid in that timeframe.

 

[Kellogs]

The whole idea of tanking just throws me off. This rule mostly benefits teams like the Leafs, who often fall just short of the playoffs.

If the Leafs finish 24th for the next 20 years, they have close to 100% odds of drafting a McDavid in that timeframe.

Someone doesn't understand probabilities...

 

[operasen]

What I am seeing are roster spots taken by players that are not contributing they way they were expected to. The fact that we can not call up our young players to actually see what we have is unfortunate.

Someone suggested a spot be kept open to rotate Binghamton players in and out all year. I like that. When Ceci got the shot, Corvo was done. Until then, Corvo was a roster factor.

Spezza needs to go on IR based on his last games. On the GWG last night, after he lost the puck, he just stood still, unable to move back into the play. I would prefer he be traded while he has any worth, because after next year, we'll get nothing for him.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

The whole idea of tanking just throws me off. This rule mostly benefits teams like the Leafs, who often fall just short of the playoffs.

If the Leafs finish 24th for the next 20 years, they have close to 100% odds of drafting a McDavid in that timeframe.

The league wants all teams to compete, and give all fanbases the illusion of competitiveness. Otherwise, you'd see a scenario with some of the seedy owners out there dumping all their vets for draft picks and prospects under that owner-friendly rookie salary cap (also partly the reason why a draft floor exists).

 

[aragorn]

Tanking doesn't seem to have helped Edmonton at all so far.

 

[Benjamin]

Tanking doesn't seem to have helped Edmonton at all so far.

It worked for LA, Chicago, Pitts, Washington, Colorado, and Tampa.