Team Overview - Present and Future

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

I think that we already have a generational talent in Karl already and with becoming more of a leader will have the biggest impact on this team for the coming years. Great players like these make other players around them better and players will feed off his energy.

Very well said, I don't disagree. Now imagine having two of em.

Just by having those 2 players we could be the number 1 destination for 90% of top UFA's while having high-end star talent to build around guaranteed for the next 10 years. Yea, it's difficult to predict the future but having Karlsson/McDavid on the same team could be NHL shattering.

Karlsson alone is fine, imo, but why not just get rid of the veteran core, play your young guns next year for experience and see where it goes.

Imagine next year we keep Spezza, Anderson, Phillips, etc... and we don't make the playoffs... while not becoming bad enough for top 5 pick too. Or make the playoffs every so slightly and get bounced first round. Basically we just gave up on 2-3 HUGE future assets(returns for the veteran guys) plus a shot at a chance to nab best prospect since Crosby.

 

[FireMelnyk]

We'd need to keep Spezza to hit the floor next year. Unless that's what Melnyk means about cap space being an asset. Maybe he plans to be paid top draft picks to take on 2-3 bad contracts so we can hit the floor.

 

[Benjamin]

I don't doubt what RKL is saying, but we have just gone full circle around the mulberry bush.

The point I made earlier was that if we are bad enough to get an impact player in next year's draft than our core is not good enough. If we are good enough to make the playoffs the draft will give us a player who can help a little bit further down the line, and that will make less of an impact. The draft really is not a factor unless we tank, and tanking is a bad scenario for the competitiveness of the club in the next few years.

Part with vets with caution. It costs far more to add those types of guys later on when we are gearing up for a run in the playoffs than it does to keep the ones you already have.

The devils went from taking Larsson 4th overall to the Stanley cup finals less than a year later.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

One caveat: Whoever finishes in 9th place in the Eastern Conference in the 2014-15 season still has a chance to draft McDavid.

Here are the odds:
30th place: 25.0%
29th place: 18.8%
28th place: 14.2%
27th place: 10.7%
26th place: 8.1%
25th place: 6.2%
24th place: 4.7%
23th place: 3.6%
22th place: 2.7%
21th place: 2.1%
20th place: 1.5%
19th place: 1.1%
18th place: 0.8%
17th place: 0.5%

Finishing in last place only give a 1 in 4 chance at McDavid.

There is no longer a legitimate reason for any team to tank.

 

[Kellogs]

The devils went from taking Larsson 4th overall to the Stanley cup finals less than a year later.

The Devils are a completely different scenario.

First, them getting Larsson was an aberration, given the fact they weren't really a lottery team to begin with (had a terrible first half because of a bad coaching selection but played like the Stanley Cup finalist for the second half), but they still won the lottery (a 4.7% chance according to Nac's numbers), so even if they finished out of a playoff spot.

Secondly, they did the exact opposite of what is being suggested in this thread which is getting rid of veteran players and going with youth.

Third, Larsson was not an impact in their Stanley Cup run and was repeatedly scratched.

And finally, which is the most important point, despite a terrible start due to an obvious bad coaching selection, they could have easily mailed it in, kept the coach and kept on tanking, but instead they brought in a temporary coach out of retirement for half a season and went on a late season run because losing should never be acceptable to an NHL organization. And history has shown consistently that unless there are extenuating circumstances which caused a team to finish in a lottery position, generally the "impact" player from that draft does not turn a franchise around.

 

[StefanW]

The Devils are a completely different scenario.

First, them getting Larsson was an aberration, given the fact they weren't really a lottery team to begin with (had a terrible first half because of a bad coaching selection but played like the Stanley Cup finalist for the second half), but they still won the lottery (a 4.7% chance according to Nac's numbers), so even if they finished out of a playoff spot.

Secondly, they did the exact opposite of what is being suggested in this thread which is getting rid of veteran players and going with youth.

Third, Larsson was not an impact in their Stanley Cup run and was repeatedly scratched.

And finally, which is the most important point, despite a terrible start due to an obvious bad coaching selection, they could have easily mailed it in, kept the coach and kept on tanking, but instead they brought in a temporary coach out of retirement for half a season and went on a late season run because losing should never be acceptable to an NHL organization. And history has shown consistently that unless there are extenuating circumstances which caused a team to finish in a lottery position, generally the "impact" player from that draft does not turn a franchise around.

Well said.

 

[operasen]

RKL great thread bruh.

Completely agree....I tend to talk alot about making trades to push to win now but only because thats what management seems to want to do....A mistake I believe will cost us.

Spezza, Phillips, Neil, Michalek,Corvo, Greening all need to go and bring back picks good young players and prospects.

The young core we have here is good enough to be competitive without any of them. Plus we have some good kids comin up and a bunch of pics and prospects being added to the pool would only solidify that.

I dont think I'd immediately trade Andy I'd keep him and let him play out his contract so we could work a tandem next season splitting the games 50/50 with Lehner and building him up rather then just throwing him to the wolves in what could be a rough rebuild year.

But All together I am all for the idea of keeping with the youth movement and making sure the team can contend for the next decade....Id welcome bombing next year for McDavid the kid is similar to what Crosby was at the same age in terms of skill level and compete level. He will be an NHL super star.

Very well positioned. The assets these guys would return to us could make all the difference in two years when we could really begin to stretch our legs. And I would also look at trading Anderson before he can just walk. His next contract, should it be here, will probably need a NMC and that will make Lehner want out.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Besides trading Spezza when his stock rises a bit more, and possibly Phillips, I don't see the great return you guys see on greening and neil. if you were contending, would you give up good young payers or high picks for these guys

 

[Suiteness]

I watched CHI and SJS play on Saturday night.

After watching that pitiful effort by the Sens, it was great to watch REAL hockey.

I’d love to see Murray move out players who:

- Constantly lose battles
- Can’t pass or take a pass and;
- Make more bad decisions with the puck than good.

Every player on SJS and CHI worked hard for every puck up for grabs. It was fun to watch good players try hard and do the right things on the ice.

No fancy play horses$%^. If a play wasn’t there, the puck went toward the net and players were already on their way there. If no one was going to the net, then they dropped it down for a cycle.

More often than not for both teams, the puck went to the net and forwards went to the net without the puck.

Sadly, when Murray puts a C on Spezza , I doubt we get to see this kind of hockey in Ottawa as long as he is managing this team.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Suitness, well said. That's why the pesky Sens from last year were such a treat to watch. They worked their butts off out there. Granted, they didn't always have the skill or experience to make the right plays, but it wasn't from lack of effort or heart.

 

[trentmccleary]

To win we're going to need a 1st line on par with that team + an actual 2nd line of ~60 point players. Not to mention a very good top 4, a solid goalie and most likely a 3rd line made up of players on their first contract that are playing more of a 2nd line role.

In 2011-12, the 21st forward in scoring had 69 points. You need to drop your expectations back into reality.

We have also been blessed with a VERY deep draft that could boast 2 potential stars in McDavid and Eichel.

What better opportunity is there than to keep the young core, play them next year and see how it plays out.

we can retain the veterans, try to add to the current roster and win now. However, that seems harder to do because a huge chunk of our forward group may still not be fully ready for the tough grind of the playoffs. Or... since most our prospects unproven... who are we gonna trade now for help? How are we gonna get help? Is it gonna work? Will we have to trade a vital piece like Lazar/Zibanejad because only those guys have value?

There are huge questions no matter which path you chose, the only thing is... the first path offers you excellent compensation in high draft pick in deep class plus plethora of future NHL ready assets we could get back moving the remaining veteran core.

You're fear mongering by suggesting we'd deal Zinanejad/Lazar and looking at the prospect route through rose coloured glasses to prove your point.
Most drafts only produce 2 surefire stars out of the top-2 picks. Everything else is more random and you're considered extremely lucky to get a Michalek out of the 5th-10th picks. So if we only fail as badly as Toronto, Calgary or a Columbus next year... we'll be well out of star range and just hoping to hit another home run (ie: Karlsson, Hossa) amongst a minefield of average players.

Star players:
None

Top liners:
Ryan 26
Turris

Top 6ers:
MacArthur 28
Spezza 30

This is a big reason why the "long term" view of the team posted by people here in the past fails; because it is backed by a short term view of the players they're analyzing.

On one hand, we have a legit offensive star having a bad season. A player who has been injured in the past and then finished seasons off with 40 points in 35 games. A player who finished 4th in scoring two years ago.
On the other, we have a 40 point 2nd/3rd line tweener who had 1 huge year based on chemistry with Grabovski- Kulemin a few years back (before that chemistry disappeared abruptly). This player has had a big 2/3's of a season with Turris-Ryan because he has chemistry with them...
Then we have Turris having a great year (63 pt pace) while developing chemistry with MacArthur-Ryan after having posted two successive 50 point paces in the same position with Alfredsson.

So Turris is now a 1st liner. Spezza is merely a top-6 forward like MacArthur. Kulemin is a 3rd liner and nobody is arguing that Grabovski is a #1 C anymore.

When was the last time a Bingo player actually had success on the team? Outside of Ceci, who isn't even providing any offense which is his game, I can't think of one.

I haven't seen any elite skill from any of the Bingo players.

1/3rd of Bingo was just promoted in 2011. So they've had to rebuild and our "old" players are hitting their mid-late 20's.

Look at Boston and another team like St.Louis Blues, top power houses of the league.
Boston winning the cup a few years back and making great pushes in the playoffs and reached the finals again last season.

Both of those teams have one thing in common, they don't exactly have your Malkin or Corey Perry Star forwards.

They both have guys who are solid top liners and top 6ers, example Lucic, Backes, Bergeron, Krejci, Berglund.

It just goes to show you don't necessarily need that Star forward power to be a cup contender. Although it is nice, these two teams have made it fact that you can be a powerhouse for years with a balanced, two-way team and of course great goaltending (Rask is awesome).

St. Louis hasn't won anything.

I like what Tampa is doing down there, giving the rookies a chance to play and it's working out pretty good for them.

Weren't we the toast of the town, playing rookies last year... when we were backed by a 0.941 SV%?

 

[Sensinitis]

It is food for thought, which means that adding what I did to the discussion will hopefully provide information that allows people to consider things that they may not have otherwise considered.

My takeaway from looking at our team 5 years ago is that we only have 3 players still around. However, when I look at Boston, Pitts, Chicago, SJ, etc I see a lot of teams with a pretty stable core that they build around. I made my other points in my reply to a different comment, so I wont repeat them here.

Like I said, just food for thought.

But that happened because of the rebuild... I don't see where you're going with this.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

In 2011-12, the 21st forward in scoring had 69 points. You need to drop your expectations back into reality.



You're fear mongering by suggesting we'd deal Zinanejad/Lazar and looking at the prospect route through rose coloured glasses to prove your point.
Most drafts only produce 2 surefire stars out of the top-2 picks. Everything else is more random and you're considered extremely lucky to get a Michalek out of the 5th-10th picks. So if we only fail as badly as Toronto, Calgary or a Columbus next year... we'll be well out of star range and just hoping to hit another home run (ie: Karlsson, Hossa) amongst a minefield of average players.



This is a big reason why the "long term" view of the team posted by people here in the past fails; because it is backed by a short term view of the players they're analyzing.

On one hand, we have a legit offensive star having a bad season. A player who has been injured in the past and then finished seasons off with 40 points in 35 games. A player who finished 4th in scoring two years ago.
On the other, we have a 40 point 2nd/3rd line tweener who had 1 huge year based on chemistry with Grabovski- Kulemin a few years back (before that chemistry disappeared abruptly). This player has had a big 2/3's of a season with Turris-Ryan because he has chemistry with them...
Then we have Turris having a great year (63 pt pace) while developing chemistry with MacArthur-Ryan after having posted two successive 50 point paces in the same position with Alfredsson.

So Turris is now a 1st liner. Spezza is merely a top-6 forward like MacArthur. Kulemin is a 3rd liner and nobody is arguing that Grabovski is a #1 C anymore.



1/3rd of Bingo was just promoted in 2011. So they've had to rebuild and our "old" players are hitting their mid-late 20's.



St. Louis hasn't won anything.



Weren't we the toast of the town, playing rookies last year... when we were backed by a 0.941 SV%?

All good points.
People seem to forget how spectacular our goaltending was last year. without it we make close to zero noise in the regular season. We couldn't score goals, nor was our defense as solid as people are led to believe. We had 3, not 1, 3 goalies playing out of their minds. IF your goalie has to make several amazing goal saving saves a period, let alone a game, your D probably isn't playing that well.

 

[83DIZ65]

Besides trading Spezza when his stock rises a bit more, and possibly Phillips, I don't see the great return you guys see on greening and neil. if you were contending, would you give up good young payers or high picks for these guys

Your not going to get a good return for Greening but a late round pick and freed up cap space makes him an addition by subtraction also makes space for AHL guys to get a look down the stretch.

Neil on the other hand is worth up to a good prospect or a third froma team that needs a gritty tuff guy going into the playoffs his history gives him value to a desperate team at the deadline.

 

[wilfred]

If I am going to rebuild a team this is how it should be done:

step 1- Must start from the Net we have a very good starter in Anderson and a potential superstar in Lehner. A+

Step 2- Defense- I love this teams D going forward a good mix of size speed youth. in 3 or 4 years with a good UFA signing it would not surprize me this team has one of the top goals against numbers in the league. A

Step 3- Forwards- This groups core is young and will only get better. There is a good mix of 2 way players and snipers that are slowly making there way to become solid NHL players. There are two things missing is a true superstar whether it comes from free agency in a couple of years or we draft one and a great leader. If Spezza could be that superstar for 6 more years that would be great, but I think most of us would say that there is a low percentage of that happening. B

Now comes the tough part, how do they make the transition from Spezza, Phillips, Neil etc.... to youth without loosing ticket sales because the average fan does not want to watch a so called rebuild and at the same time getting a solid return for that player(Spezza).

If you don't listen to what Murray and the organization are saying and you look at the moves they have done in the last couple I think this team is in great shape moving forward. I for one think its time to make the big move this offseason and finish the rebuild.

 

[Icelevel]

All good points.
People seem to forget how spectacular our goaltending was last year. without it we make close to zero noise in the regular season. We couldn't score goals, nor was our defense as solid as people are led to believe. We had 3, not 1, 3 goalies playing out of their minds. IF your goalie has to make several amazing goal saving saves a period, let alone a game, your D probably isn't playing that well.

well yeah. also, 1-4 against pittsburgh in the playoffs. (playoffs are what matter)

 

[Burrowsaurus]

well yeah. also, 1-4 against pittsburgh in the playoffs. (playoffs are what matter)

We also kicked out the number two seed. But I don't think we do that if karlsson doesn't come back. Against Pittsburgh that's where their experience was just way to much for our d and team to handle. Why on earth would the team that we had be able to beat the penguins?

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Our goalies were not playing out of their minds.

The system we had in place made our goalies stats better than they actually were. The goalies of course did play well here and there but not out of their minds.

Last year we had guys who hustled their **** off and hence we didn't allow nearly as many prime scoring chances against than we are letting up this year.

This year Karlsson was completely bad in defensive zone first half. No Gonchar presence, Cowen and Gryba struggling immensely and Anderson playing brutally. Spezza and Michalek were playing some of the worst hockey ever and Smith for first 15 games was still on vacation. Greening is still no where to be found as well and Condra was struggling.

Last year from the get-go this team was 100% hustling work ethic non-stop. Beautiful to see.

It's a miracle we are still in playoff position and I think it's because of this that Murray wants to win now; so much went wrong yet we still battling back. What If Anderson was half as good this year as he was last year? We'd be in a playoff position probably.

The team identity seems completely jammed up though. Last year it was clear under the leadership of Alfredsson on offense and Gonchar on defense. This year it's brutal with Spezza on offense and Phillips on defense.

 

[83DIZ65]

If I am going to rebuild a team this is how it should be done:

step 1- Must start from the Net we have a very good starter in Anderson and a potential superstar in Lehner. A+

Step 2- Defense- I love this teams D going forward a good mix of size speed youth. in 3 or 4 years with a good UFA signing it would not surprize me this team has one of the top goals against numbers in the league. A

Step 3- Forwards- This groups core is young and will only get better. There is a good mix of 2 way players and snipers that are slowly making there way to become solid NHL players. There are two things missing is a true superstar whether it comes from free agency in a couple of years or we draft one and a great leader. If Spezza could be that superstar for 6 more years that would be great, but I think most of us would say that there is a low percentage of that happening. B

Now comes the tough part, how do they make the transition from Spezza, Phillips, Neil etc.... to youth without loosing ticket sales because the average fan does not want to watch a so called rebuild and at the same time getting a solid return for that player(Spezza).

If you don't listen to what Murray and the organization are saying and you look at the moves they have done in the last couple I think this team is in great shape moving forward. I for one think its time to make the big move this offseason and finish the rebuild.

Agree.

I think if we ice an exciting young team the seats will fill just fine.

Also a superstar may be available in the off season theres gonna be some good FA's, but to be honest Id rather have 8 top 6 guys then have 5 top 6 guys and 1 superstar and that would likely cost the same amount....basicly sign 3 2.5 to 3.5 mil forwards rather then sign 1 8-9mil forward....Say sign Matt Moulson Mikhail Grabovski and Devin Setoguchi rather then sign Gaborick........

 

[StefanW]

Our goalies were not playing out of their minds.

The system we had in place made our goalies stats better than they actually were. The goalies of course did play well here and there but not out of their minds.

Last year we had guys who hustled their **** off and hence we didn't allow nearly as many prime scoring chances against than we are letting up this year.

This year Karlsson was completely bad in defensive zone first half. No Gonchar presence, Cowen and Gryba struggling immensely and Anderson playing brutally. Spezza and Michalek were playing some of the worst hockey ever and Smith for first 15 games was still on vacation. Greening is still no where to be found as well and Condra was struggling.

Last year from the get-go this team was 100% hustling work ethic non-stop. Beautiful to see.

It's a miracle we are still in playoff position and I think it's because of this that Murray wants to win now; so much went wrong yet we still battling back. What If Anderson was half as good this year as he was last year? We'd be in a playoff position probably.

The team identity seems completely jammed up though. Last year it was clear under the leadership of Alfredsson on offense and Gonchar on defense. This year it's brutal with Spezza on offense and Phillips on defense.

Completely disagree with the bolded part. Anytime goalies are putting up save percentages around .940 over a fairly large number of games they are playing out of their minds. If they went down to a more average .910 to 9.20 range the difference would mean that a lot of those close pesky wins would be ties, and the ones that went to OT would have been outright losses.

Just because we had a lot of Bingo level forwards who were not good at skills such as scoring does not mean those players were exceptional at the defensive end of the ice. I agree with the 100% work ethic part, but work ethic is not the same as skill, regardless of whether it is offensive or defensive play. Our defensive play was bad enough to be a non-playoff team straight up if it was not for goalies being the stars of games night in a night out.

 

[Benjamin]

A system that was defense first + kept the play to the outside + didn't give up many quality chances + didn't block shots + good goalies = insane goalie stats

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Completely disagree with the bolded part. Anytime goalies are putting up save percentages around .940 over a fairly large number of games they are playing out of their minds. If they went down to a more average .910 to 9.20 range the difference would mean that a lot of those close pesky wins would be ties, and the ones that went to OT would have been outright losses.

Just because we had a lot of Bingo level forwards who were not good at skills such as scoring does not mean those players were exceptional at the defensive end of the ice. I agree with the 100% work ethic part, but work ethic is not the same as skill, regardless of whether it is offensive or defensive play. Our defensive play was bad enough to be a non-playoff team straight up if it was not for goalies being the stars of games night in a night out.

I can counter your argument with 3 words...

Brian ****ing Elliot:

1.56 sv% .940 GAA

Good game, bruh.

Btw, the players we had last year were exceptional defensively + very hardworking.

Turris
Alfredsson
Silfverberg
Smith
Zibanejad
Condra
Greening
Pageau
Daugavins
Latendresse(not really)
Methot(playing out of his mind)
Karlsson(best player in NHL)
Gryba(playing shutdown top pairing minutes like its nobody's business
Gonchar(put up Norris caliber season)

 

[WhiteLight*]

I watched CHI and SJS play on Saturday night.

After watching that pitiful effort by the Sens, it was great to watch REAL hockey.

I’d love to see Murray move out players who:

- Constantly lose battles
- Can’t pass or take a pass and;
- Make more bad decisions with the puck than good.

Every player on SJS and CHI worked hard for every puck up for grabs. It was fun to watch good players try hard and do the right things on the ice.

No fancy play horses$%^. If a play wasn’t there, the puck went toward the net and players were already on their way there. If no one was going to the net, then they dropped it down for a cycle.

More often than not for both teams, the puck went to the net and forwards went to the net without the puck.

Sadly, when Murray puts a C on Spezza , I doubt we get to see this kind of hockey in Ottawa as long as he is managing this team.

This so much.

So many fair weather fans on here who think it's acceptable to play the way Spezza does. Watch elite teams play sometimes guys.

 

[source]

One caveat: Whoever finishes in 9th place in the Eastern Conference in the 2014-15 season still has a chance to draft McDavid.

Here are the odds:
30th place: 25.0%
29th place: 18.8%
28th place: 14.2%
27th place: 10.7%
26th place: 8.1%
25th place: 6.2%
24th place: 4.7%
23th place: 3.6%
22th place: 2.7%
21th place: 2.1%
20th place: 1.5%
19th place: 1.1%
18th place: 0.8%
17th place: 0.5%

Finishing in last place only give a 1 in 4 chance at McDavid.

There is no longer a legitimate reason for any team to tank.

Isn't the rule still that your draft position can only be pushed back one position beyond your place in the standings?

Or are the Oilers going to suddenly play well? If they finish 17th-to-last, that's a 1 in 200 shot at the 1st overall pick!

 

[Kellogs]

Isn't the rule still that your draft position can only be pushed back one position beyond your place in the standings?

Or are the Oilers going to suddenly play well? If they finish 17th-to-last, that's a 1 in 200 shot at the 1st overall pick!

No, that's a 1 in 200 shot at winning the lottery. Winning the lottery moves you up 5 spots at most.