Speculation: Taylor Hall's value leading up to the deadline

[TopChedder]

so Hall @50% would be 4x.66=2.64? is that correct? The .66 is the % of remaining games for Buf or would I go by the date? So a 108 day season 47 days in is 44% so then 54% of 4=2.16
At 2.16-2.64 Hall is a good option
I fig 1st+Niemela+Engvall
If Hall is 2.67 and we include Engvall we can do

Thornton-Matthews-Marner
Hall-Tavares-Nylander
Hyman-Kerfoot-Simmonds
Mikhevey-Spezza-Boyd

Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Holl
Dermott-Bogo

Anderson
Campbell

and have a whooping 10k left lol

Not a single chance that the Leafs give up that package for Hall.

Less than zero percent.

 

[Alluckks]

Gotta factor in that Taylor Hall being traded moves the needle on Eichel's impending trade request, so Buffalo will have to make it worth it for themselves

 

[kthx]

DeBrusk + 6th

 

[jetsforever]

Such a weird discussion for a recent Hart winner

 

[Jayan]

Kreider’s contract is going to age like a brick of cheese left on a sidewalk.

Forsberg absolutely but the cost would be much higher. As an example Preds fans just posted this week that the ask of Edmonton is 2 of Broberg, Bouchard, Holloway.

I though the price of Forsberg was equal to Martin Erat.

 

[Miri]

Sabres should keep him for the lottery luck.

He guarantees lottery win even to Cup champions. He is that good.

 

[Hookslide]

Not getting a first rounder for a rental. Just doesn't happen anymore.

No you are not unless you are dealing with Donny Sweeney

 

[Hookslide]

DeBrusk + 6th

Are you high ? 24 year old for a rental, and YOU WANT TO ADD A PICK !!!!!!!!

 

[Baksfamous112]

I think he has a very high value at 50%.

I think a 1st, prospect and young roster player might cut it. I mean if I was Tampa, Toronto or Winnipeg I'd get right on it. I just think his issue is he's on a very bad team limiting his production. Buffalo having a fire sale is the right thing to do.

An NHL team executive just said the total opposite. Have you read the article - or even OP?

Hall at $4 million for a 2nd? That’s hilarious.

Even the biggest Hall detractors from Edmonton would laugh at that assessment.

How some of these guys in hockey are executives is beyond me. How he could think 50% retention on a 1st line rental only nets a 2nd.

Buffalo can easily take back an expiring contract too thus making him available to any club he’d be willing to go to.

I mean, yeah, I would have thought the same but this is a quote from an actual team executive. It doesn’t get any more real than that. The explanation makes total sense as well.

 

[ICanMotteBelieveIt]

I would stay far away from him. He's got that Duchene vibe. Fast, skilled player that somehow always misses the playoffs.

 

[TS Quint]

People talking about Hall not waiving his NMC? Hahaha! He needs out and get a chance to prove that it’s the situation in Buffalo that is leading to his career lows not his decline in play.

I get his line of thinking when he signed the contract. He’s 29 and there is a flat cap and a ton of money is getting clawed back from players to make the 50/50 revenue split work. So he took the shortest contract with the most money and he gets to play with Eichel. How bad could it be?

As it turns out that one year contract is costing him MILLIONS on his next contract. A single goal and 11 assists isn’t going to get him another 8 million dollar contract. There is no reason he shouldn’t invest a couple months of his life to go to a better hockey situation to increase his value.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

What are the chances that the team who acquires him nosedives in the standings after and misses the playoffs?

Seems to be the norm with all the teams Hall plays for

I'd stay clear of him if I were top teams like TO or COL or whoever is rumored

 

[Big Empty]

Any team that gives up a first for Hall will regret it IMO

 

[Spirit of 67]

I would trade for him at 50% retained for a 2nd round pick.

That's not what the article is saying.

It's saying that for them to retain half, it's only going to net them an extra 2nd round pick.
This does not include the cost to acquire the player. It's just to pay for the retention.

 

[Big Empty]

That's not what the article is saying.

It's saying that for them to retain half, it's only going to net them an extra 2nd round pick.
This does not include the cost to acquire the player. It's just to pay for the retention.

The article says that Buffalo would get a 2nd round pick if they retained on Hall. No where does it say that there would be some added value in the trade. Please show me where, I read the article and never thought of it in the way you did.

 

[TFHockey]

I think he has a very high value at 50%.

I think a 1st, prospect and young roster player might cut it. I mean if I was Tampa, Toronto or Winnipeg I'd get right on it. I just think his issue is he's on a very bad team limiting his production. Buffalo having a fire sale is the right thing to do.

There is no chance Hall brings in that as a rental.

 

[Contenderorpretender]

What does hall even bring to the table anymore? You cant ride your past performances when you're just having this bad of a f***ing year.

 

[McShogun99]

Hall will pick his team, Buffalo will retain 50% and get a 2nd or 3rd plus a B prospect.

If Hall was playing good and didn’t have a full NMC then Buffalo would get a much better return.

 

[violaswallet]

As a Florida fan, I think we can add Hall and Staal at the deadline: would something like a conditional first (making playoffs)+Borgstrom work?

 

[Guttersniped]

There is no shot Hall gets a first.

As stated by the executive.

The trade deadline is April 12th and the executive isn’t a seer.

Hall does needs to start scoring goals though, he had 6 goals in 30 games when he was traded from the Devils in December 2019 but that was easier to hand waive away coming of a knee injury. He did perk up a little on the Coyotes with 10 goals in 35 games, and but there’s no getting around the fact that he’s killing the Sabres with 1 goal in 19 games. Yes, they would be worse off without his 11 assists (hey, only 2 are secondary!) but damn that 1.89% overall shooting % with 53 shots and one goal is something else.

 

[Miri]

Not a single chance that the Leafs give up that package for Hall.

Less than zero percent.

-5 percent then? Or even less?

 

[hmc1987]

Probably still a decent amount. Somebody will give up a 1st + 2nd + prospect for him

That would surprise me

 

[hmc1987]

The trade deadline is April 12th and the executive isn’t a seer.

Hall does needs to start scoring goals though, he had 6 goals in 30 games when he was traded from the Devils in December 2019 but that was easier to hand waive away coming of a knee injury. He did perk up a little on the Coyotes with 10 goals in 35 games, and but there’s no getting around the fact that he’s killing the Sabres with 1 goal in 19 games. Yes, they would be worse off without his 11 assists (hey, only 2 are secondary!) but damn that 1.89% overall shooting % with 53 shots and one goal is something else.

His shooting % is also much lower than career % suggesting a dramatic improvement is not out of the cards...it probably won't happen in Buffalo though because Hall has to create his own chances in addition to taking a quality shot.

Put Hall on a contender and you could easily see a 5% shooting increase

 

[McOilers97]

The discourse around Hall has gotten way too unwieldy here, IMO.

He's struggling badly in Buffalo and clearly the "play with Eichel for a year and pump his value" gamble isn't working, but that whole team is in shambles right now and obviously 1 goal in 19 games is a complete outlier for him.

He doesn't have great pure finishing skills - he looked like he'd be a perennial 30-40 goal guy in his first couple years in the league, but for some reason he has kind of plateaued as a 25 goal guy ever since, besides the 39 goals in his Hart Trophy season. What he can do though at a very high level is produce scoring chances by lugging the puck up ice and finding open teammates. He's struggling pretty badly right now, but I have to think based on every metric that I've looked at that this is just an awful once-in-a-career type of slump that he can bust out of, just needs a better situation to be the kind of player that he really can be. Obviously 35+ goals and 90+ points in 2017-18 was an outlier, just like his current pace of single digit goals and 50 points in 82 games is an outlier. I would say that the "real" Taylor Hall is probably somewhere in between those marks - 25ish goals and 65-75 points.

I don't know what the rental cost for him will be, but if he has a better 2nd half of the year, I think the type of production I just mentioned would be worth $6-7m x 4-5 years for a good team that has the cap space.

 

[JT Kreider]

Rangers offer Hajek and a 3rd to solidify another 1st overall pick