Tanking for Alexis Lafreniere

[McGuires Corndog]

Know what’s weird? This looks like an inverse from 2010. Detroit, Ottawa, Jersey and LA being top teams.

Pretty natural cycle, IMO.

You can only be dominant for so long, but you can stay mediocre forever if that’s the route you want to take.

 

[calder candidate]

We need to finish as low as possible, get a player this year, get a player next year and really tank hard in 22 To get#1 were there really seem to have elite talent and have all 3 basically come up at the same time to really turn things around the next season. Kinda like Toronto did with Reilly, Nylander, Marner, Matthews but I think we might have more piece having Suzuki, KK, Poehling, Caufeild, Romanov still young and vet that could support or be traded. With team like BOS and TB in our way for a few years and team like CAR and NYR that will be I. The raise. I think going full rebuild is the best situation as long as we hit bottom when there is generational talent available.

 

[Habs Halifax]

We need to finish as low as possible, get a player this year, get a player next year and really tank hard in 22 To get#1 were there really seem to have elite talent and have all 3 basically come up at the same time to really turn things around the next season. Kinda like Toronto did with Reilly, Nylander, Marner, Matthews but I think we might have more piece having Suzuki, KK, Poehling, Caufeild, Romanov still young and vet that could support or be traded. With team like BOS and TB in our way for a few years and team like CAR and NYR that will be I. The raise. I think going full rebuild is the best situation as long as we hit bottom when there is generational talent available.

Going rock bottom can happen now or in 2+ years if we continue to stall. Basically, the idea would be to play the kids in an entertainment style of hockey (win or lose) and it's likely we are a bottom 5 team for a few years. I get what you are saying and support it. I just would do it a bit later than you would

 

[SOLR]

We need to finish as low as possible, get a player this year, get a player next year and really tank hard in 22 To get#1 were there really seem to have elite talent and have all 3 basically come up at the same time to really turn things around the next season. Kinda like Toronto did with Reilly, Nylander, Marner, Matthews but I think we might have more piece having Suzuki, KK, Poehling, Caufeild, Romanov still young and vet that could support or be traded. With team like BOS and TB in our way for a few years and team like CAR and NYR that will be I. The raise. I think going full rebuild is the best situation as long as we hit bottom when there is generational talent available.

The only challenge is that 2021 is a terrible draft (there still a few gems at the top). I would trade all our current assets this year for this draft, and next year for the 2022 draft.

 

[SOLR]

Hopefully MB isn’t activity tanking because he planning to go full tank mode for 22 where there could be 3 elite talent Wright, Savoie, Lambert...

If we are tanking now, we will be tanking until 2022 100%, 2021 is too poor a draft to turn any franchise and it will be too many assets to replace 1-2 years.

 

[Lshap]

If we are tanking now, we will be tanking until 2022 100%, 2021 is too poor a draft to turn any franchise and it will be too many assets to replace 1-2 years.

With the benefit of hindsight, how accurate have these predictions of strong and weak draft years been?

 

[habergeon]

Kohtkaniemi is nothing special. His draft status flatters him.

Give it time, when Suzuki was KK's age he couldn't make the NHL. Suzuki couldn't make it at 18 either.

1 year of playing time for a 19 year old can work wonders, it's not his fault they put him on the 3rd line and barely played him.

 

[calder candidate]

If we are tanking now, we will be tanking until 2022 100%, 2021 is too poor a draft to turn any franchise and it will be too many assets to replace 1-2 years.

Point is we have to bottom out in 22, to be able to get a elite player if we don’t the player from 20, 21 alone likely won’t be good enough to turn thinks around you need a Matthews, Mcdavid or Crosby to really spark thing up and their might be 3 players in 2022. If we end up picking 5th in 22 it might no be worth it...

 

[Habs Halifax]

With the benefit of hindsight, how accurate have these predictions of strong and weak draft years been?

You smell what I am smelling? Those "deep draft" narratives are BS. Trying to project growth on 15-17 year old kids is guess work.

 

[Habs Halifax]

If we are tanking now, we will be tanking until 2022 100%, 2021 is too poor a draft to turn any franchise and it will be too many assets to replace 1-2 years.

Ran the draft lottery simulator 8 times before the Wings won the 1st OA. Tanking on purpose for 3 or more years in a row is a myth. Usually you trip and fall down to that situation and when you do, you need to be very luck (Leafs for example). Habs have too much to sell in a short span for your plan to happen and you plan might end up like the Sabres or Coyotes.

I rather build our team like the Blues and Bruins to be honest. It's less risky

 

[rickthegoon]

All this tank talk is counter productive. It's not gonna happen.
Too many jobs and contracts on the line.
Firing Julien, Bergevin and Thimmins this week and all replacing them with subs for the remainder of the season would still not work ; players would still not buy into it ; just looking at how many players are being rushed out of the injury list is a clear indication that tanking is not in the plans.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

The only challenge is that 2021 is a terrible draft (there still a few gems at the top). I would trade all our current assets this year for this draft, and next year for the 2022 draft.

Next year is a D draft. Probably similar to 2008 where 14 of 1st round picks were D including 2-5 (Doughty, Bogosian, Pietroangelo and Schenn). Stamkos went 1st.

Raty looks good as a #1, but yeah, doesn't look great right now. Luke Hughes, brother of Jack & Quinn is eligible.

 

[CauZuki]

All this tank talk is counter productive. It's not gonna happen.
Too many jobs and contracts on the line.
Firing Julien, Bergevin and Thimmins this week and all replacing them with subs for the remainder of the season would still not work ; players would still not buy into it ; just looking at how many players are being rushed out of the injury list is a clear indication that tanking is not in the plans.

Who cares if they buy into it, they still keep losing. The team has to actively acquire more picks and prospects there's no good reason to not sell off some assets rather than risking additional injury by allowing players to return early to attempt the impossible.

 

[angusyoung]

Can the thread title be changed? it's so ridiculous, as if Habs will get him. Whats the freaking chance of that happening. Habs should be tanking for, fill in the blank. .........for the 5-15 range.

 

[HabsForHire]

All this tank talk is counter productive. It's not gonna happen.
Too many jobs and contracts on the line.
Firing Julien, Bergevin and Thimmins this week and all replacing them with subs for the remainder of the season would still not work ; players would still not buy into it ; just looking at how many players are being rushed out of the injury list is a clear indication that tanking is not in the plans.

Head on over to the "we have a chance" thread, only tanking scum allowed here

 

[MD thaivuN]

Pretty natural cycle, IMO.

You can only be dominant for so long, but you can stay mediocre forever if that’s the route you want to take.

Good thing that Detroit showed this year that eventually you'll become crap for trying to stay mediocre forever.

 

[SOLR]

Next year is a D draft. Probably similar to 2008 where 14 of 1st round picks were D including 2-5 (Doughty, Bogosian, Pietroangelo and Schenn). Stamkos went 1st.

Raty looks good as a #1, but yeah, doesn't look great right now. Luke Hughes, brother of Jack & Quinn is eligible.

Dont think Raty or Clarke would make the top 8 this year.

 

[SOLR]

Ran the draft lottery simulator 8 times before the Wings won the 1st OA. Tanking on purpose for 3 or more years in a row is a myth. Usually, you trip and fall down to that situation and when you do, you need to be very luck (Leafs for example). Habs have too much to sell in a short span for your plan to happen and your plan might end up like the Sabres or Coyotes.

I rather build our team like the Blues and Bruins to be honest. It's less risky

A myth? Less risky? Are you f***ing kidding me? the Bruins drafted Seguin and Thorthon, they are the myth. They did tank 2 years.
Blues? Who is Pietralangelo, Schenn? They are the ultimate myth, this happened 2-3 times in the past 25 years.

Team with 3+ years of tanking and Stanley cups in the past 25 years (the vast majority)
Pittsburgh
LA
Chicago
Washington
Avalanches
Lightning

3+ years of tanking each.

Edmonton
Buffalo
Toronto
Avalanches
Detroit (surprise surprise)

Next on the block with 3+ years.

The only teams without 3+ years of tanking
Ducks
Bruins
Carolina
Ducks

And they all had at least 2 years of tanking in the previous 10 years or a top 5 draft selections from other teams in trades (or a mix).

Is it enough debunking for this myth? When looking at the actual data, tanking 3 years is the surest, safest way to go.

I can't find a team that won the cup without top 5 selections since the Habs in 1993? (not sure about that) - Damphousse was 6th overall.

 

[Habs Halifax]

A myth? Less risky? Are you ****ing kidding me? the Bruins drafted Seguin and Thorthon, they are the myth. They did tank 2 years.
Blues? Who is Pietralangelo, Schenn? They are the ultimate myth, this happened 2-3 times in the past 25 years.

Team with 3+ years of tanking and Stanley cups in the past 25 years (the vast majority)
Pittsburgh
LA
Chicago
Washington
Avalanches
Lightning

3+ years of tanking each.

Edmonton
Buffalo
Toronto
Avalanches
Detroit (surprise surprise)

Next on the block with 3+ years.

The only teams without 3+ years of tanking
Ducks
Bruins
Carolina
Ducks

And they all had at least 2 years of tanking in the previous 10 years or a top 5 draft selections from other teams in trades (or a mix).

Is it enough debunking for this myth? When looking at the actual data, tanking 3 years is the surest, safest way to go.

It is a myth cause teams that fall to the bottom several years in a row trip down to that level. Leafs are an example you can use in liquidating Kessel and Phaneuf in trades. Habs have a heck of a lot more to sell than they did with Price, Weber, Tatar, Petry, Gallagher

I understand your plan but I don't think you understand the probably of it not working or it results in a decade of misery.

 

[SOLR]

It is a myth cause teams that fall to the bottom several years in a row trip down to that level. Leafs are an example you can use in liquidating Kessel and Phaneuf in trades. Habs have a heck of a lot more to sell than they did with Price, Weber, Tatar, Petry, Gallagher

I understand your plan but I don't think you understand the probably of it not working or it results in a decade of misery.

I do understand fully the probability, I wasnt saying its my "plan" either. I was suggesting that if you tank this year, you are stuck in it for 3 years given the 2021 draft. Much like Edmonton got stuck on a few bad drafts (Yakupov etc.)

 

[Habs Halifax]

I do understand fully the probability, I wasnt saying its my "plan" either. I was suggesting that if you tank this year, you are stuck in it for 3 years given the 2021 draft. Much like Edmonton got stuck on a few bad drafts (Yakupov etc.)

I understand what you are saying. I just don't believe in that "deep draft" narrative. It's very difficult to project growth on 15-17 year old kids. I think it's smarter to diversify our futures coming in terms of prospects and picks. Spread the 1st and 2nd's over several years.

 

[SOLR]

I understand what you are saying. I just don't believe in that "deep draft" narrative. It's very difficult to project growth on 15-17 year old kids. I think it's smarter to diversify our futures coming in terms of prospects and picks. Spread the 1st and 2nd's over several years.

Yep saying the same thing. This year isnt deep or that strong either, 2021 is worse. But the 2022 is a big draft (Shane Wright already better than Byfield?), and 2023 looks also pretty good.

 

[bobholly39]

A myth? Less risky? Are you ****ing kidding me? the Bruins drafted Seguin and Thorthon, they are the myth. They did tank 2 years.
Blues? Who is Pietralangelo, Schenn? They are the ultimate myth, this happened 2-3 times in the past 25 years.

Team with 3+ years of tanking and Stanley cups in the past 25 years (the vast majority)
Pittsburgh
LA
Chicago
Washington
Avalanches
Lightning

3+ years of tanking each.

Edmonton
Buffalo
Toronto
Avalanches
Detroit (surprise surprise)

Next on the block with 3+ years.

The only teams without 3+ years of tanking
Ducks
Bruins
Carolina
Ducks

And they all had at least 2 years of tanking in the previous 10 years or a top 5 draft selections from other teams in trades (or a mix).

Is it enough debunking for this myth? When looking at the actual data, tanking 3 years is the surest, safest way to go.

I can't find a team that won the cup without top 5 selections since the Habs in 1993? (not sure about that) - Damphousse was 6th overall.

Just remember - Habs already got 2 top 5 picks in the past few years. Kotka and Galchenyuk. How does that compare to some of these other teams?

Also - how many teams who "tank", ie - suck - for many years - did not end up better for it? That's the most critical component. Looking solely at teams with top 5 picks isn't necessarily correct either. The biggest issue with habs tanking is that it doesn't guarantee a top 5 pick. Sens had one of the worst seasons ever last year (including off-ice issues) and their pick only ended up 4th (I know Col owned it). A team like Montreal could "try to suck" but still only finish 5th or 6th from the bottom. With a bit of bad luck - 1-2 teams pass us in the lottery draft, and we're now picking 8th. If it's a bad draft (as 2012 was) - we make no real progress.

Is Anaheim tanking this year and last? I'd say I think they are. With 20 games to go, they are 5th from last. Last year, despite their horrible season - only had the 9th pick. This year they could end up with the 7-8th pick.

Just because you want to tank - doesn't mean you'll end up with the Dahlins, Matthews, McDavid or Lafreniere's of this world.

 

[Habset]

It is a myth cause teams that fall to the bottom several years in a row trip down to that level. Leafs are an example you can use in liquidating Kessel and Phaneuf in trades. Habs have a heck of a lot more to sell than they did with Price, Weber, Tatar, Petry, Gallagher

I understand your plan but I don't think you understand the probably of it not working or it results in a decade of misery.

Good teams don't plan a Tank, they take a realistic look at their team and manage their assets accordingly.

 

[Burke the Legend]

Just remember - Habs already got 2 top 5 picks in the past few years. Kotka and Galchenyuk. How does that compare to some of these other teams?

Also - how many teams who "tank", ie - suck - for many years - did not end up better for it? That's the most critical component. Looking solely at teams with top 5 picks isn't necessarily correct either. The biggest issue with habs tanking is that it doesn't guarantee a top 5 pick. Sens had one of the worst seasons ever last year (including off-ice issues) and their pick only ended up 4th (I know Col owned it). A team like Montreal could "try to suck" but still only finish 5th or 6th from the bottom. With a bit of bad luck - 1-2 teams pass us in the lottery draft, and we're now picking 8th. If it's a bad draft (as 2012 was) - we make no real progress.

Is Anaheim tanking this year and last? I'd say I think they are. With 20 games to go, they are 5th from last. Last year, despite their horrible season - only had the 9th pick. This year they could end up with the 7-8th pick.

Just because you want to tank - doesn't mean you'll end up with the Dahlins, Matthews, McDavid or Lafreniere's of this world.

Yep, could tank for years and just end up with a bunch of Galchenyuks & Ekblads. Meanwhile Rantanens and Pasternaks go later. Tanking can improve your odds int he draft that's for sure, but there's still lots of variability.