Speculation: Tampa Bay's upcoming cap crunch

[DFC]

That's fair. It's the comments of "take less or don't play" or hoping for a bridge in the $5 million range that are crazy.

Agreed. I don't see us doing that at all. We have a history of being fair with players, when we can. The two exceptions are Kucherov's bridge deal, where everybody forgets we literally ran out of money and couldn't offer him anything more, and Stamkos's contract, where Yzerman stuck to 8.5 even while Stamkos fielded better offers from other teams. In that case, I still suspect Yzerman believed Stamkos would walk.

Point is a special player. I do think he's going to sign for less than market value, but I think his market value is astronomical. So I think he's still going to get a lot of money, even at a discount. Which is why I don't even think a bridge deal will save us a ton of money (because he doesn't have to take one, so he can ask for more), but in our situation, every 100k we can save is a pretty big deal, so bridging him still makes sense.

 

[DFC]

Except that is what Yzerman was prepared to do in the case of Kucherov, who held out of training camp. Except that is what Dubas actually did in the case of Nylander. These are considered two of the best GMs in the league, doing what GMs are supposed to do, putting their teams first. It's not that Tampa fans feel entitled, we are just in touch with the reality of the situation.

Why does Point potentially take a bridge deal? Because in negotiations, the alternative is holding out or hoping for an offer sheet. Uh, duh

I really don't see us playing that kind of hardball here. The cap crunch we were up against in Kuch's year was actually worse than this one, and we literally ran out of money. But, weird though it may be, in hindsight, Kucherov was not at the level then that Point looks like he will be at by the end of this year.

 

[Rschmitz]

I really don't see us playing that kind of hardball here. The cap crunch we were up against in Kuch's year was actually worse than this one, and we literally ran out of money. But, weird though it may be, in hindsight, Kucherov was not at the level then that Point looks like he will be at by the end of this year.

I don't expect so either, I would like to think we can work a deal out and all of those nasty alternatives don't rear their ugly heads. I am definitely not in favor of a hold out or a trade, etc. I want to see him signed long term. At the same time, if it did come to that, which I doubt because players understand their position, the GM has leverage. Non-bolts fans enjoy ignoring the underlying circumstances because of the narratives they are pushing(cap crunch dismantling the team), and then are shocked and outraged when a deal is signed, as they were with the Kucherov deal.

 

[DFC]

I don't expect so either, I would like to think we can work a deal out and all of those nasty alternatives don't rear their ugly heads. I am definitely not in favor of a hold out or a trade, etc. I want to see him signed long term. At the same time, if it did come to that, which I doubt because players understand their position, the GM has leverage. Non-bolts fans enjoy ignoring the underlying circumstances because of the narratives they are pushing(cap crunch dismantling the team), and then are shocked and outraged when a deal is signed, as they were with the Kucherov deal.

That Kucherov deal was too weird to ever happen again. He signed for a full 30% less than his comparables in the same season. We ran out of money, he ran out of time, and it worked out for everybody in the end because Kuch signed under a higher cap. That said, it was not a fair deal--we on the Lightning board were expecting TRADE news rather than news that Kuch had signed--and I don't expect anything close to that favorable a scenario with Point. But we're not in that same dire position either.

 

[nhljohnson]

There are some unpleasant words to describe the moron of a GM who forces a player as good as Point to hold out... it's a bit alarming some Tampa fans have the entitlement to side with the team over the player in this case.

So...Steve Yzerman is a moron?

 

[DistantThunderRep]

So...Steve Yzerman is a moron?

It'd be Brisebois to cause Point to hold out in this case.

 

[Rschmitz]

That Kucherov deal was too weird to ever happen again. He signed for a full 30% less than his comparables in the same season. We ran out of money, he ran out of time, and it worked out for everybody in the end because Kuch signed under a higher cap. That said, it was not a fair deal--we on the Lightning board were expecting TRADE news rather than news that Kuch had signed--and I don't expect anything close to that favorable a scenario with Point. But we're not in that same dire position either.

Where are you getting that number from? Who do you think his comparables were?

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

So...Steve Yzerman is a moron?

Which player did he cause to hold out who was as good then as Point is now? I am most curious!

 

[DFC]

Where are you getting that number from? Who do you think his comparables were?

Pastrnak, MacKinnon, Barkov.

 

[Rschmitz]

Which player did he cause to hold out who was as good then as Point is now? I am most curious!

Kucherov

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Kucherov

I said as good as Point is now.

 

[Rschmitz]

Pastrnak, MacKinnon, Barkov.

None of those three signed bridge deals, so I don't think we can call their contracts comparable

 

[Rschmitz]

I said as good as Point is now.

Are you arguing from the standpoint that Point finishes with 57 goals and 104 points? Than no one. It's a long season

 

[nhljohnson]

That Kucherov deal was too weird to ever happen again. He signed for a full 30% less than his comparables in the same season.

As with Johnson and Palat before him, the org. has bucked the growing leaguewide trend of big term, big money right out of an ELC. I about lost my shit when TB passed on the opportunity to get Kucherov locked up somewhere in the vicinity of Tarasenko money by extending Alex Killorn right before his arb. hearing. BriseBois, as you well know, was a part of the braintrust that repeatedly chose this approach; we’ll see what his hand at the helm means soon enough but it shouldn’t come as a surprise if he charts the same course as his predecessor for negotiations with Point and Sergachev.

 

[CupsOverCash]

I assume you used an 83m cap? So you have just under 10 mil in cap space with 15 players signed. Let's say 9 mil to Point (which is incredibly generous, and probably falsely assuming Tampa can enforce an internal cap and get a discount). 1 mil cap space with 16 players signed. Let's say you do trade miller for that bottom pairing D. 2 mil for a bottom pairing D, and you're at 4.25 mil with 16 players signed. With the bonus overages from this year (up to 1.6 mil), you're probably at around 4 mil if you don't do anything at the deadline this year. I've heard Foote's name mentioned, so about 3 mil with 17 players signed. You have 6 arbitration eligible players; 3 of which are on the NHL roster. Are you getting rid of them and replacing them all with prospects? Even just qualifying them would cost almost the remaining 3 million. Are you relying on them all accepting their qualifying offers? Are you then planning on running a 20-man roster with no extras, and having $0 in cap space? I'm sorry, but this seems like a stretch.


And then yeah, maybe the cap goes up another 3 mil the next year, and maybe you trade Palat to one of the teams he doesn't choose to list, and Callahan comes off if you didn't buy him out when you ran out of space the year before, but no cap space means the bonus overages all get pushed forward to that year, which will be at least 1.9 mil with the 20-man roster, and probably more with the ELCs you need to use.

I'm not sure why a 40-point rookie defenseman that is about to take on more responsibility and apparently excel is projecting to be cheap. Vasilevsky is also arbitration eligible, a Vezina finalist, and one of the most important pieces of your core. Cernak, Cirelli, Joseph, and probably other prospects you bring up will have their contracts due as well, and all I've been told is that they are going to step in and be amazing and shoulder key responsibilities (and in some cases, apparently already have), but that equals money...

Like, it's going to be really tough, and I know you've been hearing this for five years and all that, but it feels like a lot of you are in denial. Things are unlikely to go exactly as you all imagine it will, and it seems like most of you are relying on that.

Sorry for late response. Here is my effort on arm chair gm.

22 man roster

TB2019 cap crunch - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Most of this is with what you thought would should happen, obviously with some tweaks. Let’s just call them compromises. I think there would be some bending to help the team out a bit on top of that. After all the team has done so in the past. Even you can admit the team has done so. So we have to keep in mind that especially with this being so close. I’m probably not on point with this but I tried.

Point - 9 mil x 7 I don’t know if he goes for that or the team does but you said 9 mil. Let’s just start with that.

In order to get cap compliant I bought out Callahan. I traded Miller and a 4th to LA for Martinez retaining 1 mil. We’ve been scouting each other and people are speculating we are scouting Martinez. Miller and Martinez swap isn’t out of realm of possibilities and they get a good player in Miller with term. We have a replacement for our RHD who left. Put up Cernak and Sergachev. Bring back Koekkoek. Masin is the guy outside looking in.

Hedman Cernak
McDonagh Sergachev
Koekkoek Martinez
Masin

Not bad looking D again.

Bring back Paquette and Erne at 1.25. They could be signed longer at those numbers and wouldn’t be a bad idea. Good 4th liners. Have Stephens up for Callahan. Or best man in camp I guess.

Overall it’s not looking impossible. I suppose if we really need to we can ask one of those guys to remove a ntc. You can say we didn’t expect Point to blow up like this. After all other people have noted, it’s a business. On a competitive team who seems to continuously bring in talent you have to think that it’s possible that you could be asked to be traded due to circumstances. Obviously it doesn’t happen all the time where you hit on a franchise player in the 3rd round. It would hurt to lose a Palat, Johnson, or Killorn but I think we can get away with losing one of them. Get away with meaning some player can step into their role and do a good job too. Maybe not as good but good enough. We have top guys who pick up most of the slack anyways signed long term.

I think the bottom line is it’s not as gloomy as I think you make it sound. I think your point is it’s not as great as we make it sound. That’s fair. But I think the arm chair gm above shows that it’s doable and I think some things can be compromised on that will help keep the team competitive. I mean even with the state tax advantage I still think the team does this as well to help the team win. After all in the end these guys will be rich and what’s left after that is whether they won or just were able to have great memories on great teams. They have that opportunity here.

Even if we haven’t won it, we’ve been in the thick of it. As long as you are there you have a chance. I just think that is something that gets lost on people on here. It’s not always about getting correct market value, sometimes some of that is surrendered for a chance to win and go far in playoffs. Can we at least agree on that?

 

[DFC]

As with Johnson and Palat before him, the org. has bucked the growing leaguewide trend of big term, big money right out of an ELC. I about lost my **** when TB passed on the opportunity to get Kucherov locked up somewhere in the vicinity of Tarasenko money by extending Alex Killorn right before his arb. hearing. BriseBois, as you well know, was a part of the braintrust that repeatedly chose this approach; we’ll see what his hand at the helm means soon enough but it shouldn’t come as a surprise if he charts the same course as his predecessor for negotiations with Point and Sergachev.

I agree, but I think that situation was an anomaly. More than that, Point is on a trajectory to be better than Kucherov was that year (although it'll be tough for him to match Kuch's playoff performance). Meanwhile, 2nd contracts league wide are getting bigger and bigger. And it's not like that negotiation with Kucherov was easy. He held out through camp, took 15-20 games to get his feet under him, and we ultimately missed the playoffs.

I think this negotiation will be a little more standard. I just don't see us paying Point like some average second line player when he's right there with Kucherov and Hedman as our best.

 

[nhljohnson]

The cap crunch we were up against in Kuch's year was actually worse than this one, and we literally ran out of money.

I don’t know that it was necessarily tighter. I mean, TB did have the ability even as late as the final week of July that summer to repurpose funds in order to go longer on Kucherov by going through one of Killorn’s or Namestnilov’s scheduled arb. hearings in order to trigger a special buyout window (in which they could have jettisoned Filppula), and/or rejecting one (or both!) arb. awards, effectively making the player an unrestricted free agent.

Ultimately, TB had the ability to orchestrate a long-term deal with Kucherov for a full year and then figure out how to fill in from there but instead deliberately boxed both parties into the short-lived standoff.

 

[nhljohnson]

It'd be Brisebois to cause Point to hold out in this case.

Right. My point was Yzerman did the very same thing to Kucherov.

Aside: one thing people may overlook when comparing Point’s production this season to Kucherov’s in his final ELC year is their respective PP usage. Point has been getting steady first unit looks at the same juncture Kucherov was getting leftover minutes on the 2nd unit and hadn’t yet been been tasked with being a triggerman.

 

[RussianGuyovich]

I said as good as Point is now.

Kucherov was, and is, better than point.

As much as I love point, he’s not as good without kucherov. Kucherov makes everyone better.

*bangs gavel*

 

[bernmeister]

Rangers don't want Cally and esp if it is not worthwhile.
Other than Cally I don't see much that is a match for a small deal.

Packages with a third team may yield opportunity.
Rangers and Isles NEVER do biz, but...
Isles have 10-ish m in cap
are not happy with expiring 6m Eberle, supposedly
not thrilled w/Dal Colle either
need holes filled w/depth.

PRELIMINARY. This is INCOMPLETE
I could see something like

to TB from NYI
Eberle

to TB from NYR
TB 2019 conditional 2nd [can morph into 1st]
Rangers 2020 2nd

to NYI from TB
RD prospect Foote
F Miller
F Callahan

to NYI from NYR
Skjei
Namestinkov

to NYR from NYI
Dobson

to NYR from TB
nothing

something like that

summary:
gamble for Rangers that Dobson becomes solid, but while a lot to pay, guy is a bluechip RD prospect. Dal Colle looks like bust

Isles take on extra year of Cally but get value for Eb as a rental, and more importantly long term add of JT Miller. Obtain Foote to replace Dobson. Skjei fills LD void. Namest. adds to F. If Foote works out that is 4 guys added to losing rental and 1 yr cap dump.

Bolts get Ebs for cup run, have dibs to kick tires/see if interested and at what #. More important, they dump structural expense in Miller and immediate albatross of Callahan while getting 2 2nds, including recovered flexibility as to their own 1st.

While long term cap improvement to TB, both TB and NYR may have to somehow add some expiring NYI cap dumps, perhaps Sbisa and Lehner, like I said, not EVERY detail finalized.

besides the obvious NYR-NYI hate, any constructive feedback?

 

[AndreRoy]

Rangers don't want Cally and esp if it is not worthwhile.
Other than Cally I don't see much that is a match for a small deal.

Packages with a third team may yield opportunity.
Rangers and Isles NEVER do biz, but...
Isles have 10-ish m in cap
are not happy with expiring 6m Eberle, supposedly
not thrilled w/Dal Colle either
need holes filled w/depth.

PRELIMINARY. This is INCOMPLETE
I could see something like

to TB from NYI
Eberle

to TB from NYR
TB 2019 conditional 2nd [can morph into 1st]
Rangers 2020 2nd

to NYI from TB
RD prospect Foote
F Miller
F Callahan

to NYI from NYR
Skjei
Namestinkov

to NYR from NYI
Dobson

to NYR from TB
nothing

something like that

summary:
gamble for Rangers that Dobson becomes solid, but while a lot to pay, guy is a bluechip RD prospect. Dal Colle looks like bust

Isles take on extra year of Cally but get value for Eb as a rental, and more importantly long term add of JT Miller. Obtain Foote to replace Dobson. Skjei fills LD void. Namest. adds to F. If Foote works out that is 4 guys added to losing rental and 1 yr cap dump.

Bolts get Ebs for cup run, have dibs to kick tires/see if interested and at what #. More important, they dump structural expense in Miller and immediate albatross of Callahan while getting 2 2nds, including recovered flexibility as to their own 1st.

While long term cap improvement to TB, both TB and NYR may have to somehow add some expiring NYI cap dumps, perhaps Sbisa and Lehner, like I said, not EVERY detail finalized.

besides the obvious NYR-NYI hate, any constructive feedback?

Tampa gets raped. Hell no.

 

[Rschmitz]

Rangers don't want Cally and esp if it is not worthwhile.
Other than Cally I don't see much that is a match for a small deal.

Packages with a third team may yield opportunity.
Rangers and Isles NEVER do biz, but...
Isles have 10-ish m in cap
are not happy with expiring 6m Eberle, supposedly
not thrilled w/Dal Colle either
need holes filled w/depth.

PRELIMINARY. This is INCOMPLETE
I could see something like

to TB from NYI
Eberle

to TB from NYR
TB 2019 conditional 2nd [can morph into 1st]
Rangers 2020 2nd

to NYI from TB
RD prospect Foote
F Miller
F Callahan

to NYI from NYR
Skjei
Namestinkov

to NYR from NYI
Dobson

to NYR from TB
nothing

something like that

summary:
gamble for Rangers that Dobson becomes solid, but while a lot to pay, guy is a bluechip RD prospect. Dal Colle looks like bust

Isles take on extra year of Cally but get value for Eb as a rental, and more importantly long term add of JT Miller. Obtain Foote to replace Dobson. Skjei fills LD void. Namest. adds to F. If Foote works out that is 4 guys added to losing rental and 1 yr cap dump.

Bolts get Ebs for cup run, have dibs to kick tires/see if interested and at what #. More important, they dump structural expense in Miller and immediate albatross of Callahan while getting 2 2nds, including recovered flexibility as to their own 1st.

While long term cap improvement to TB, both TB and NYR may have to somehow add some expiring NYI cap dumps, perhaps Sbisa and Lehner, like I said, not EVERY detail finalized.

besides the obvious NYR-NYI hate, any constructive feedback?

A team as deep and good as the Bolts isn't going to do this.

 

[RegularSznAllStars]

Rangers don't want Cally and esp if it is not worthwhile.
Other than Cally I don't see much that is a match for a small deal.

Packages with a third team may yield opportunity.
Rangers and Isles NEVER do biz, but...
Isles have 10-ish m in cap
are not happy with expiring 6m Eberle, supposedly
not thrilled w/Dal Colle either
need holes filled w/depth.

PRELIMINARY. This is INCOMPLETE
I could see something like

to TB from NYI
Eberle

to TB from NYR
TB 2019 conditional 2nd [can morph into 1st]
Rangers 2020 2nd

to NYI from TB
RD prospect Foote
F Miller
F Callahan

to NYI from NYR
Skjei
Namestinkov

to NYR from NYI
Dobson

to NYR from TB
nothing

something like that

summary:
gamble for Rangers that Dobson becomes solid, but while a lot to pay, guy is a bluechip RD prospect. Dal Colle looks like bust

Isles take on extra year of Cally but get value for Eb as a rental, and more importantly long term add of JT Miller. Obtain Foote to replace Dobson. Skjei fills LD void. Namest. adds to F. If Foote works out that is 4 guys added to losing rental and 1 yr cap dump.

Bolts get Ebs for cup run, have dibs to kick tires/see if interested and at what #. More important, they dump structural expense in Miller and immediate albatross of Callahan while getting 2 2nds, including recovered flexibility as to their own 1st.

While long term cap improvement to TB, both TB and NYR may have to somehow add some expiring NYI cap dumps, perhaps Sbisa and Lehner, like I said, not EVERY detail finalized.

besides the obvious NYR-NYI hate, any constructive feedback?

GTFO

 

[Cmac66]

Rangers don't want Cally and esp if it is not worthwhile.
Other than Cally I don't see much that is a match for a small deal.

Packages with a third team may yield opportunity.
Rangers and Isles NEVER do biz, but...
Isles have 10-ish m in cap
are not happy with expiring 6m Eberle, supposedly
not thrilled w/Dal Colle either
need holes filled w/depth.

PRELIMINARY. This is INCOMPLETE
I could see something like

to TB from NYI
Eberle

to TB from NYR
TB 2019 conditional 2nd [can morph into 1st]
Rangers 2020 2nd

to NYI from TB
RD prospect Foote
F Miller
F Callahan

to NYI from NYR
Skjei
Namestinkov

to NYR from NYI
Dobson

to NYR from TB
nothing

something like that

summary:
gamble for Rangers that Dobson becomes solid, but while a lot to pay, guy is a bluechip RD prospect. Dal Colle looks like bust

Isles take on extra year of Cally but get value for Eb as a rental, and more importantly long term add of JT Miller. Obtain Foote to replace Dobson. Skjei fills LD void. Namest. adds to F. If Foote works out that is 4 guys added to losing rental and 1 yr cap dump.

Bolts get Ebs for cup run, have dibs to kick tires/see if interested and at what #. More important, they dump structural expense in Miller and immediate albatross of Callahan while getting 2 2nds, including recovered flexibility as to their own 1st.

While long term cap improvement to TB, both TB and NYR may have to somehow add some expiring NYI cap dumps, perhaps Sbisa and Lehner, like I said, not EVERY detail finalized.

besides the obvious NYR-NYI hate, any constructive feedback?

Tampa could get a better return for Miller and Foote if they were sold separately. Callahan will have one season left after the summer, that is way to much to give up for one year of Callahan. I don't think both the Rangers and the Lightning are the best trade partners at this time. Tampa could easily do a deal with a team who has cap space which would not cost us that amount in assets just to get rid of Callahan.

 

[BoltzManConstant]

besides the obvious NYR-NYI hate, any constructive feedback?

Yes. You seem to have stumbled in here from a "New York Rangers fever dreams" thread. Next time, just one tab before posting.