Speculation: Tampa Bay Cap Dumps in the offseason

[Halla]

1) Trading away: Killorn and Paquette who do not have NTC
2) Let go: Sattenkirk, Maroon, Rutta
3) Sign Sergachev, Cirelli and Cernak under 12M

Expected new contracts:
Sergachev = 5M
Cirelli = 4M
Cernak = 3M

Forwards:
Stamkos (8.5M) - Point (6.8M) - Kucherov (9.5M) = 24.8M
Palat (5.3M) - Cirelli (4M) - Johnson (5M) = 14.3M
Verhaeghe (1M) - Coleman (1.8M) - Gourde (5.2M) = 8M
Volkov (1M) - Stephens (1M) - Joseph (1M) = 3M
Total 12 forwards = 50.1M

Defense:
Hedman (7.9M) - Sergachev (5M) = 12.9M
McDonagh (6.8M) - Cernak (3M) = 9.8M
Coburn (1.7M) - Foote (1M) = 2.7M
Total 6 d-men = 25.4M

Goalies:
Vasilevskiy = 9.5M
McElhinney = 1.3M
Total 2 goalies = 10.8M

Total 20 contracts = 86.3M
Contracts are rounded up. So it's really ~ 85M
Assuming the salary cap goes up to 85M we should be ok.
If it's lower then something else should be done.

Cirelli is a prime offer sheet target. up to 4.2 - 6.3 is only a 1st + 3rd

also you are assuming the cap goes up 3.5, the bolts only have 20 guys, and they are STILL over lol.
gonna need another move in your scenario

 

[Halla]

Alex Killorn as only trade is enough as summer 2020 move, and he is the only guy which ones NTC turns to modified at next summer.

Cap raise, getting cheap Coleman instead of Killorn does the thing.

Then, at next summer 2021 they lose one 5M guy in expansion and cheap prospect comes in.

how do they possibly sign sergachev,cernak, and cirelli + fill out the roster with only 10 mil?

they dont. need more than 1 move. those guys arent signing for 2mil each

 

[Hint1k]

Cirelli is a prime offer sheet target. up to 4.2 - 6.3 is only a 1st + 3rd

So, you offered him an offer sheet? Do you know what he will do to it? He will use it as a toilet paper. He plays for Tampa, not for Toronto

 

[Henkka]

how do they possibly sign sergachev,cernak, and cirelli + fill out the roster with only 10 mil?

they dont. need more than 1 move. those guys arent signing for 2mil each

They just sign. Like always.

People doom and gloom, and there comes the cheap Tampa deal over and over again.

Short-term deals for defenceman is the key.

 

[Curufinwe]

I'll take one Palat, please.

LeBrun: Bolts rookie Palat having stellar year

"It's also because he was overshadowed in junior by Sean Couturier," said Murray, referring to the young Philadelphia Flyers stud center. "The two of them meshed together so well in Drummondville, but Sean was the apple of everyone's eye, big, 6-3 center with skill who could play any role. Then there was this six-foot Czech guy nobody really knew much about. He was never a dominant star for the Czech national team program. A lot of people just attributed his points in Drummondville to playing with Sean Couturier. But other teams, including us, thought he was a pretty strong player in his own right."

 

[57special]

I could see MN going for one of the C's if the price is right, which it should, considering the contracts.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I'll take one Palat, please.

LeBrun: Bolts rookie Palat having stellar year

He has a no trade clause. Almost all of their players with large contracts have full NTCs for at least another few years. That's why the situation with Tampa is so tight.

Killorn, Point, Kucherov, and Vasileskiy are the only key players they could move. Obviously, the last 3 names are almost certainly not being traded.

If Tampa feels they need some extra cap room, I would guess that Coleman is both a rental this year, and then Killorn's cheaper replacement next season.

The year after that a few other NTCs change to modified NTCs, so they will have room to make a deal.

Other than maybe Gourde who might get a bigger role else where, I don't think it is realistic to expect any player to want to waive their NTC for Tampa. Even with Gourde that's just baseless speculation. He may not want to take a pay cut (taxes) to be traded away from a contender.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

That Gourde contract is handcuffing them.

If Bergevin is truly trying to work something with Tampa wouldnt be surprised to see his overrated/overpriced ass come back.

 

[Curufinwe]

Guys with NTCs can still get moved. The NTC can always be waived.

 

[Dr Danglefest]

2 of Killorn, Johnson, Gourde and Palat will be going out.

I'd imagine Palat is staying after showing he's still got it. Killorn is almost a definite to go due to the season he's having and his NTC becomes partial so he's easier to move.

I'd prefer to move Gourde over TJ but after the season Gourde is having that's gonna be a tall task.

HF has been wringing their hands over the impending doom of TB at the hands of the cap crunch for years now. If anything, I trust this team to find a way to make it work.

Yeah I’m sure Jim Benning will bail them out yet again by sending over Vancouvers 2022 1st for Yanni Gourde after miraculously getting him to waiver much to the befuddlement of all posters here

 

[God King Fudge]

Yeah I’m sure Jim Benning will bail them out yet again by sending over Vancouvers 2022 1st for Yanni Gourde after miraculously getting him to waiver much to the befuddlement of all posters here

To be fair, Miller has worked out pretty damn well for Vancouver.

Still a super risky trade to make for them at the time, but it seems like it's going to work out decently for them.

 

[Hasbro]

Which prospects do you think they'll graduate? Foote? Alex BB? Volkov?

 

[VoluntaryDom]

killorn sadly looks gone. id much rather keep gourde than johnson if its between those two for who else goes.

stamkos-point-kucherov
palat-cirelli-coleman
gourde-verhaeghe-volkov
katchouk-stephens-joseph
or something, that would be fine.

 

[Sky04]

Killorn will be gone, Coburn is still a capable defenseman that will have suitors.

 

[duckpuck]

Guys with NTCs can still get moved. The NTC can always be waived.

True. But guys sign in Tampa because they want to win AND because there is no state income tax - often with a discount due to the tax impacts (but a corresponding NMC). Being traded can cost them a ton of money unless they end up in Vegas or Dallas (no income taxes there either). I don't think its safe to assume any player would waive and take an effective pay cut.

 

[Hasbro]

Killorn will be gone, Coburn is still a capable defenseman that will have suitors.

Only making $1.7m though.

 

[Scintillating10]

Killorn is probably gone. I also think Gourde is shipped out this summer. Just a hunch.

Does Gourde have any trade protection in his contract? Montreal may be interested if Tampa gives us something to take on his contract.

 

[AHLdepth]

Price on Killorn? Much rather have a guy like Killorn and his much more controllable cap hit than the uncertainty of Toffoli. Plus the last trade we made worked out swimmingly

 

[DFC]

Guys with NTCs can still get moved. The NTC can always be waived.

That's easier said than done. Nobody has waved from the Yzerman era to now, with the possible exception of Eric Brewer.

I don't see it happening here. I think Sergachev and Cirelli will take less than people are expecting, like everyone else has, and we'll be forced to move Killorn, lose Shattenkirk, and possibly a couple of other wiggle room moves. It'll be difficult for sure. And maybe it costs us Cernak, but we've been pretty good at navigated rough waters so far.

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

Does Gourde have any trade protection in his contract? Montreal may be interested if Tampa gives us something to take on his contract.

Full NTC this year, next year, and the following year.

Price on Killorn? Much rather have a guy like Killorn and his much more controllable cap hit than the uncertainty of Toffoli. Plus the last trade we made worked out swimmingly

Best offer, probably. He's on pace for 30 goals in spite of his age and past performance (considering his age). What that best offer will be is anybody's guess.

 

[DFC]

Price on Killorn? Much rather have a guy like Killorn and his much more controllable cap hit than the uncertainty of Toffoli. Plus the last trade we made worked out swimmingly

He'll go to the best offer, same as Miller. Hopefully he tops 30 goals so we can get a 1st out of him.

 

[DFC]

Full NTC this year, next year, and the following year.

Best offer, probably. He's on pace for 30 goals in spite of his age and past performance (considering his age). What that best offer will be is anybody's guess.

He's always been known as a guy with good size who plays a solid, responsible game. Add 30 goals to that, and the price should get driven up to a 1st. He's on a good contract and is unlikely to decline dramatically before it ends. I think a contending team, or a borderline contender, will want him. And, like Miller, he could easily be better there than here. Another thing is: He's quite possibly the only TB player whose never failed to live up to expectations in the playoffs.

I really think we're getting a late 1st here. Especially if he gets to 30. Teams like Edmonton, Vancouver, maybe even Vegas--there really aren't a whole lot of teams who couldn't use an Alex Killorn. I'd rather not keep him in the east, for instance. And there aren't a lot of players I say that about.

 

[ShelbyZ]

It would seem the easiest salary they have to open would be dealing Killorn to one of the 16 teams he accepts a trade to in June, and Paquette who could potentially be replaced by someone at half the cost.

 

[Lil]

Yeah I’m sure Jim Benning will bail them out yet again by sending over Vancouvers 2022 1st for Yanni Gourde after miraculously getting him to waiver much to the befuddlement of all posters here

Idiotic comment. JB fleeced TB. Have you forgotten how TB essentially traded Miller and Nolan Foote for Coleman? LMAO. Now that's a joke. Quite funny too.

 

[DistantThunderRep]

It would seem the easiest salary they have to open would be dealing Killorn to one of the 16 teams he accepts a trade to in June, and Paquette who could potentially be replaced by someone at half the cost.

Paquette is pretty much being replaced by Coleman and Stephens now. I don't see any way Ceddy returns unless it's for less than he makes now, which is just unreasonable.