Speculation: Tampa Bay Cap Dumps in the offseason

[Hasbro]

A question to Tampa fans in particular. Coleman is a good get for only $1.8 million next year, but still it looks like they have $6m under the cap with about 8 spots to fill, Sergachev and Cernak are due to come off ELCs and I see a lot of longer term NTCs for guys who I imagine wouldn’t be eager to go to a team like Detroit in a cap dump.

Where do the Bolts make room?

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[CupsOverCash]

Killorn is probably gone. I also think Gourde is shipped out this summer. Just a hunch.

 

[themelkman]

They trade Killorn for what they can get from the 16 teams. Then they beg Johnson, Gourde or palat to submit a team they would waive for

 

[Hasbro]

Killorn is probably gone. I also think Gourde is shipped out this summer. Just a hunch.

Kilorn is from Halifax? 100% he’s on the Avalanche next year.

 

[FameFlame069]

I think Stamkos moves ... just a joke guys, but the obvious Choice is Killorn and Gourde IMO

 

[DistantThunderRep]

Yeah sadly it'll be Killorn. Gourde might waive for more ice time. Johnson will be our Expansion bait since he's from close to Seattle. Coburn might want more ice time, since it's probably his last chance at a contract after next season.

 

[Whoshattenkirkshoes]

Most likely Coburn, Killorn, Maroon gone.

That should do the trick

 

[StreetHawk]

They trade Killorn for what they can get from the 16 teams. Then they beg Johnson, Gourde or palat to submit a team they would waive for

Realizing that none of the last 3 have to do that regardless of how much the team begs them to otherwise Killorn could have been moved last summer when he still had a Full ntc.

All of the things that make TB a place where players want to go will work against them when they want to move players out for cap reasons where they don’t have full control. Why would anyone want to leave TB now?

Killorn will go cause his full trade protection drops to a modified one.

 

[themelkman]

Realizing that none of the last 3 have to do that regardless of how much the team begs them to otherwise Killorn could have been moved last summer when he still had a Full ntc.

All of the things that make TB a place where players want to go will work against them when they want to move players out for cap reasons where they don’t have full control. Why would anyone want to leave TB now?

Killorn will go cause his full trade protection drops to a modified one.

Well if they can’t drop one more of them, then they are going to have to move one of the RFA’s or a player they don’t want to lose

 

[elitepete]

Canucks would have interest in Palat, Gourde, Killorn, Johnson.

 

[BLNY]

Kilorn is from Halifax? 100% he’s on the Avalanche next year.

Born here, but considers himself a Montrealer.

 

[God King Fudge]

2 of Killorn, Johnson, Gourde and Palat will be going out.

I'd imagine Palat is staying after showing he's still got it. Killorn is almost a definite to go due to the season he's having and his NTC becomes partial so he's easier to move.

I'd prefer to move Gourde over TJ but after the season Gourde is having that's gonna be a tall task.

HF has been wringing their hands over the impending doom of TB at the hands of the cap crunch for years now. If anything, I trust this team to find a way to make it work.

 

[Krewe]

I don't want to lose any of Gourde/Killorn/Palat but we likely lose one. Odds are TyJo goes to Seattle (with us offering a sweetener) next summer. I don't really see the crunch this summer being as bad as last summer. Before Callahan/Miller were gone and Point signed his bridge, it was looking really dire

 

[bov]

As usual, the cap crunch won't be nearly as bad as some make it out to be. Looks like they'll have just under 5 million coming off the books from UFAs alone (Maroon, Rutta, Shattenkirk, Schenn), and if they can convince Gourde to waive, that would solve any cap space issues.

Killorn/Johnson/Palat are more enticing trade chips but are closer to being part of the core, so I wouldn't bet on any of them being traded unless the offer is too good to refuse. Of those three, I'd say Johnson would be likliest to move but it's tough to guess.

If I had to bet, Gourde would be the odd man out.

 

[StreetHawk]

Why would Gourde waive? He's got a full NTC until June 30, 2022 before it drops to a M-NTC. He's 28 and signed for another 5 seasons when he'll hit the market at 33, turning 34 before the end of that year. This is his big contract. No guarantees what or if he gets another deal.

No reason to waive now when it's already built into your contract that you can be moved at a future date.

 

[bov]

Why would Gourde waive? He's got a full NTC until June 30, 2022 before it drops to a M-NTC. He's 28 and signed for another 5 seasons when he'll hit the market at 33, turning 34 before the end of that year. This is his big contract. No guarantees what or if he gets another deal.

No reason to waive now when it's already built into your contract that you can be moved at a future date.

It will be difficult for Gourde to have a significant role with this team for the remainder of that contract. He has a hard time cracking the top 6 (top 9, even) already and it won't get any easier from here. I wouldn't want to leave Tampa either but he would almost certainly get more opportunity elsewhere, which helps his case for the next contract as well. It's a hurdle for sure, but I think there's a chance he waives based on ice time/role with the team.

 

[HabsMD97]

to me Palat is the most likely to be traded, because of the term, killorn and gourde have too much term 2nd line complimentary players. I would also trade paquette, at his price you could have 2 guys of similar level in the lineup. And then theres Coburn.. Johnson probably gets claimed by seattle next year, then in order to fit in Points new contract, that's when you trade gourde and killorn.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

It will be difficult for Gourde to have a significant role with this team for the remainder of that contract. He has a hard time cracking the top 6 (top 9, even) already and it won't get any easier from here. I wouldn't want to leave Tampa either but he would almost certainly get more opportunity elsewhere, which helps his case for the next contract as well. It's a hurdle for sure, but I think there's a chance he waives based on ice time/role with the team.

Or, he could chose to chase a cup til his clauses avail him to other teams, depends on what he values. If it were me, I'd chase the cup til TBL's window is near closed, then move on if needed. Plus Florida weather/no state taxes etc are huge factors for some.

 

[AndreRoy]

Tampa doesn’t have any cap dumps. What they have are future cap casualties; there’s a big difference.

Anyway barring one of our forwards with a full NTC agreeing to waive the plan is probably to start by trading Killorn this summer and seeing what it will take to re-sign our three key RFAs, then planning the rest of our moves accordingly. The priority for our RFAs is likely Sergachev, Cirelli, and Cernak in that order, though there is some debate to be had as to which of Serg and Cirelli is the greater priority. As for who else we would move to make room for those guys, the order is probably Coburn (he has a full NTC but if given a choice between being traded or buried in the AHL he would likely opt for the trade), Paquette, Coleman, and finally coming around to our key RFAs in reverse order of priority. Obviously though we aren’t going to completely wreck our depth if it’s not going to accomplish anything: for instance if trading all the guys before him still won’t be enough to keep Cirelli then we’ll just move him and keep everyone else. I’m hoping that we’ll be able to keep both Serg and Cirelli but BriseBois painted himself into a corner with Gourde and it’s going to be difficult for him to get out of it.

The following year things get a lot easier for us capwise, as Johnson and Palat will see their full NTCs end and either Johnson or McDonagh will likely end up as expansion bait without us even having to make a deal with Seattle. The bigger question at that point will be who we replace those guys with, as our prospect pool is short on players with high end potential. In short our cap problems for the most part will cease to be a major issue after this summer, while replacing our aging complementary players will become a growing issue over the next few years.

 

[Mrfenn92]

They will figure a way. Killorn will get a good return even with the field cut in half. As far as the NTC guys I'm sure they can get one to waive for a different team. Who knows though.

 

[bov]

Or, he could chose to chase a cup til his clauses avail him to other teams, depends on what he values. If it were me, I'd chase the cup til TBL's window is near closed, then move on if needed. Plus Florida weather/no state taxes etc are huge factors for some.

That all goes without saying...nobody is suggesting he wants to leave Tampa, but players also want to play and have a significant role with their team. Realistically, Gourde will not be a big piece of this offense moving forward after this season. The Lightning are obviously in win-now mode, so if this Cup run fails, I don't think it's out of the question that management might approach Gourde in the offseason about waiving.

 

[Uncle Scrooge]

2 of Killorn, Johnson, Gourde and Palat will be going out.

I think things are manageable with just 1. The fact that Point got 6-something on a bridge makes me believe Sergachev, Cirelli and Cernak will take very affordable bridge deals.

Besides, after Killorn is gone no one else likely waives and players aren’t stupid. You wanna stay? Take what you’re being offered because there’s literally no room to negotiate.

Then it’s really about is the cap going up to 82.5 or closer to 84. Lower number could be an issue, but even then you could always force a guy like Cernak to take 1 yr for peanuts like Pettersson for the Pens last year, and worry about raises later.

 

[Henkka]

I think Stamkos moves ... just a joke guys, but the obvious Choice is Killorn and Gourde IMO

Alex Killorn as only trade is enough as summer 2020 move, and he is the only guy which ones NTC turns to modified at next summer.

Cap raise, getting cheap Coleman instead of Killorn does the thing.

Then, at next summer 2021 they lose one 5M guy in expansion and cheap prospect comes in.

 

[Hint1k]

A question to Tampa fans in particular. Coleman is a good get for only $1.8 million next year, but still it looks like they have $6m under the cap with about 8 spots to fill, Sergachev and Cernak are due to come off ELCs and I see a lot of longer term NTCs for guys who I imagine wouldn’t be eager to go to a team like Detroit in a cap dump.

Where do the Bolts make room?

1) Trading away: Killorn and Paquette who do not have NTC
2) Let go: Sattenkirk, Maroon, Rutta
3) Sign Sergachev, Cirelli and Cernak under 12M

Expected new contracts:
Sergachev = 5M
Cirelli = 4M
Cernak = 3M

Forwards:
Stamkos (8.5M) - Point (6.8M) - Kucherov (9.5M) = 24.8M
Palat (5.3M) - Cirelli (4M) - Johnson (5M) = 14.3M
Verhaeghe (1M) - Coleman (1.8M) - Gourde (5.2M) = 8M
Volkov (1M) - Stephens (1M) - Joseph (1M) = 3M
Total 12 forwards = 50.1M

Defense:
Hedman (7.9M) - Sergachev (5M) = 12.9M
McDonagh (6.8M) - Cernak (3M) = 9.8M
Coburn (1.7M) - Foote (1M) = 2.7M
Total 6 d-men = 25.4M

Goalies:
Vasilevskiy = 9.5M
McElhinney = 1.3M
Total 2 goalies = 10.8M

Total 20 contracts = 86.3M
Contracts are rounded up. So it's really ~ 85M
Assuming the salary cap goes up to 85M we should be ok.
If it's lower then something else should be done.

 

[Halla]

Killorn and Gourde/Johnson