Speculation: Summer 2018 Roster Discussion Part V

[TomasHertlsRooster]

We already have Kane, Pavelski, Hertl, Meier, LaBanc, and Donskoi as top-6 wingers. Exactly whom is Nash taking one of those spots from?

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

I certainly wouldn't mind Drouin on this team but we wouldn't be addressing our center questions now or long term.

Isnt he a center that puts up about 50 points? Sure maybe not a super star but adequate with the D and wingers this team has?

 

[Jargon]

Isnt he a center that puts up about 50 points? Sure maybe not a super star but adequate with the D and wingers this team has?

Guys, we’re not actually getting Drouin in any kind of world.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Isnt he a center that puts up about 50 points? Sure maybe not a super star but adequate with the D and wingers this team has?

He is just not a center. Think 2017-2018 Pavelski after Thornton got injured but not quite as good.

 

[OrrNumber4]

My own (*cough* my nephew's *cough*) predictive model results:

Disclaimers:
1) Model has shown to be pretty inaccurate in the past
2) Assumes no trades are made
3) Model, by eye-test, tends to underrate AHL numbers and particularly AHL "defensive" d-men (so players like Simek and Middleton are complete afterthoughts in this model)

Caveats:
1) Had to strongly bias Ryan-Burns pairing when model wanted to go Vlasic-Karlsson, Braun-Burns, Ryan-Dillon
2) Had to bias Rourke Chartier based off of TC/Pre-season performance
3) Biased Melker Karlsson based off of DeBoer's history
4) Biased Pavelski as a winger

Results:

Name	GP	Goals	Assists	Points	Plus/Minus
Joe Pavelski	82	24	37	61	9
Tomas Hertl	82	27	29	56	7
Logan Couture	80	30	26	56	6
Timo Meier	82	27	23	50	3
Kevin Labanc	82	20	29	49	-5
Evander Kane	64	25	14	39	4
Joe Thornton	65	3	33	36	4
Antti Suomela	76	13	20	33	-1
Jonas Donskoi	69	13	17	30	4
Lukas Radil	70	10	16	26	0
Barclay Goodrow	58	8	7	15	1
Marcus Sorensen	41	8	6	14	-5
Dylan Gambrell	51	5	8	13	-1
Vincent Praplan	27	3	4	7	-5
Melker Karlsson	45	2	4	6	-2
Rourke Chartier	10	1	0	1	-2
Erik Karlsson	78	13	62	75	11
Brent Burns	82	16	43	59	2
Marc-Edouard Vlasic	77	6	35	41	8
Joakim Ryan	67	6	13	19	5
Justin Braun	74	2	14	16	-2
Tim Heed	46	4	12	16	1
Brenden Dillon	68	2	7	9	-4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Highlights:
My lineup (forced for ten games):

Kane-Thornton-Pavelski
Hertl-Couture-Donskoi
Meier-Suomela-Labanc
Sorensen-Chartier-Goodrow
Radil, M.Karlsson

Vlasic-Karlsson
Ryan-Burns
Dillon-Braun
Heed

PP1:
Couture-Thornton-Pavelski
Karlsson-Burns
PP2:
Kane-Hertl-Labanc
Ryan-Donskoi

Suggested lineup:

Kane-Couture-Pavelski
Meier-Hertl-Labanc
Radil-Thornton-Donskoi
Sorensen-Suomela-Goodrow
Gambrell, M.Karlsson

*Defense Unchanged*

PP1:
Couture-Thornton-Pavelski
Karlsson-Burns
PP2:
Meier-Hertl-Labanc
Ryan-Donskoi

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

He is just not a center. Think 2017-2018 Pavelski after Thornton got injured but not quite as good.

cool. I admit haven't watched him. just know the name and vague mentions when he got traded(?) and he's listed as a center.

 

[Doctor Soraluce]

Guys, we’re not actually getting Drouin in any kind of world.

Sorry but no one ever gets to make this statement again considering the types of deals DW has pulled off.

 

[Dicdonya]

My own (*cough* my nephew's *cough*) predictive model results:

Disclaimers:
1) Model has shown to be pretty inaccurate in the past
2) Assumes no trades are made
3) Model, by eye-test, tends to underrate AHL numbers and particularly AHL "defensive" d-men (so players like Simek and Middleton are complete afterthoughts in this model)

Caveats:
1) Had to strongly bias Ryan-Burns pairing when model wanted to go Vlasic-Karlsson, Braun-Burns, Ryan-Dillon
2) Had to bias Rourke Chartier based off of TC/Pre-season performance
3) Biased Melker Karlsson based off of DeBoer's history
4) Biased Pavelski as a winger

Results:

Name	GP	Goals	Assists	Points	Plus/Minus
Joe Pavelski	82	24	37	61	9
Tomas Hertl	82	27	29	56	7
Logan Couture	80	30	26	56	6
Timo Meier	82	27	23	50	3
Kevin Labanc	82	20	29	49	-5
Evander Kane	64	25	14	39	4
Joe Thornton	65	3	33	36	4
Antti Suomela	76	13	20	33	-1
Jonas Donskoi	69	13	17	30	4
Lukas Radil	70	10	16	26	0
Barclay Goodrow	58	8	7	15	1
Marcus Sorensen	41	8	6	14	-5
Dylan Gambrell	51	5	8	13	-1
Vincent Praplan	27	3	4	7	-5
Melker Karlsson	45	2	4	6	-2
Rourke Chartier	10	1	0	1	-2
Erik Karlsson	78	13	62	75	11
Brent Burns	82	16	43	59	2
Marc-Edouard Vlasic	77	6	35	41	8
Joakim Ryan	67	6	13	19	5
Justin Braun	74	2	14	16	-2
Tim Heed	46	4	12	16	1
Brenden Dillon	68	2	7	9	-4

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Highlights:
My lineup (forced for ten games):

Kane-Thornton-Pavelski
Hertl-Couture-Donskoi
Meier-Suomela-Labanc
Sorensen-Chartier-Goodrow
Radil, M.Karlsson

Vlasic-Karlsson
Ryan-Burns
Dillon-Braun
Heed

PP1:
Couture-Thornton-Pavelski
Karlsson-Burns
PP2:
Kane-Hertl-Labanc
Ryan-Donskoi

Suggested lineup:

Kane-Couture-Pavelski
Meier-Hertl-Labanc
Radil-Thornton-Donskoi
Sorensen-Suomela-Goodrow
Gambrell, M.Karlsson

*Defense Unchanged*

PP1:
Couture-Thornton-Pavelski
Karlsson-Burns
PP2:
Meier-Hertl-Labanc
Ryan-Donskoi

Nice, love stuff like this.

The only thing that is kinda odd to me is that we gain 55pts from the upgrade to Karlsson from Demelo, yet most of our forwards score less points.

I get this is only a model, and it does not know that our forwards were playing with Demelo last year, and Karlsson this year, but its still odd. You would think if the model were predicting this seasons numbers roughly off of past performance/age, which it seems to be, by increasing just about every young forwards points, lowering the older players points, and keeping mid 20s guys about the same, that adding a player of Karlsson's ability to the model would generally increase production not lower it.

Still love the speculation from the model, even if I'm not a fan of the results overall

 

[CanadienShark]

We already have Kane, Pavelski, Hertl, Meier, LaBanc, and Donskoi as top-6 wingers. Exactly whom is Nash taking one of those spots from?

Nash - Thornton - Pavelski
Kane - Couture - Labanc
Meier - Hertl - Donskoi
Sorensen - Suomela - Goodrow/Karlsson

Not sure I like those line combos, but it's what makes sense. I think we need a playmaking winger for Couture.

Kane - Thornton - Pavelski
Hertl - Couture - XXXX
Meier - Suomela - Donskoi

 

[Kcoyote3]

I personally think a Nash-Thornton-Pavelski first line would get buried by stiff competition.

Now this:

Kane-Pavelski-Donskoi
Hertl-Couture-Labanc
Nash-Thornton-Meier
Sorensen-Shovels-Goodrow

I could get behind

 

[67 others]

I personally think a Nash-Thornton-Pavelski first line would get buried by stiff competition.

Now this:

Kane-Pavelski-Donskoi
Hertl-Couture-Labanc
Nash-Thornton-Meier
Sorensen-Shovels-Goodrow

I could get behind

I concur. rolling 3 strong scoring lines with Karlsson and Burns each playing 25 minutes a game on separate pairings would be best case scenario for relentless offensive pressure

 

[Alaskanice]

I would think that at this juncture, the Sharks would be best to move a player or two for draft picks.
We could use some.

 

[LadyStanley]

Is Rick Nash even a top-6 player any more? I was wondering if he would be worth a flyer if we can sign him for 1.5M or so.

I remember reading somewhere that a team was offering Nash a multi-year deal worth about 15 mill and he declined. He's not coming to us for basically league minimum.

If his health is that much of an issue I doubt him playing for term or money. He's playing for a cup and quality of life if he comes back.

Nash is dealing with health issues. (Back as a minimum)

Until and IF he feels healthy enough for a future (post hockey) life, $20m wouldn't get him to sign. $$ is nice, but you'd like to be able to walk and do "normal" stuff after you play.

Nash told his agent, don't even except calls about potential deals. He wants to get to a healthy place.

Perhaps he'll take the entire season and then decide to look for a deal for NEXT season.

Do not count on Nash being available until he says he's available.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Nice, love stuff like this.

The only thing that is kinda odd to me is that we gain 55pts from the upgrade to Karlsson from Demelo, yet most of our forwards score less points.

I get this is only a model, and it does not know that our forwards were playing with Demelo last year, and Karlsson this year, but its still odd. You would think if the model were predicting this seasons numbers roughly off of past performance/age, which it seems to be, by increasing just about every young forwards points, lowering the older players points, and keeping mid 20s guys about the same, that adding a player of Karlsson's ability to the model would generally increase production not lower it.

Still love the speculation from the model, even if I'm not a fan of the results overall

I guess the way to think about it isn't that "we" upgraded from DeMelo to Karlsson, but from Burns to Karlsson. And from Vlasic to Burns, Braun to Vlasic, Dillon to Braun, Ryan/Martin to Dillon, and DeMelo to Ryan. Also, the model predicts an increase of about 20 goals scored and a pretty big drop in GA vs 2018.

There's probably an issue of "crowding out", and the model tends to estimate a bigger age-related decline than actually happens. This hurts Pavelski and Thornton especially.

I think the model's suggestion that Kane should be kept off PP and that Donskoi can't be counted on for big production is an interesting one.

 

[Mattb124]

I guess the way to think about it isn't that "we" upgraded from DeMelo to Karlsson, but from Burns to Karlsson. And from Vlasic to Burns, Braun to Vlasic, Dillon to Braun, Ryan/Martin to Dillon, and DeMelo to Ryan. Also, the model predicts an increase of about 20 goals scored and a pretty big drop in GA vs 2018.

There's probably an issue of "crowding out", and the model tends to estimate a bigger age-related decline than actually happens. This hurts Pavelski and Thornton especially.

I think the model's suggestion that Kane should be kept off PP and that Donskoi can't be counted on for big production is an interesting one.

Interesting stuff. I agree the Demelo to Karlsson analysis is the wrong way to look at it. We upgraded from Burns to Karlsson, Braun to Burns, and Demelo to Braun. With the left D not changing, I am not sure it makes sense to include them in the analysis.

 

[WTFetus]

Nash is dealing with health issues. (Back as a minimum)

Until and IF he feels healthy enough for a future (post hockey) life, $20m wouldn't get him to sign. $$ is nice, but you'd like to be able to walk and do "normal" stuff after you play.

Nash told his agent, don't even except calls about potential deals. He wants to get to a healthy place.

Perhaps he'll take the entire season and then decide to look for a deal for NEXT season.

Do not count on Nash being available until he says he's available.

Nash also recently had his 3rd child, and per Friedman was offered 16m/3yrs at the start of the off-season. Even if he decided to play this season, it's unlikely that he'd be our Boogie.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I guess the way to think about it isn't that "we" upgraded from DeMelo to Karlsson, but from Burns to Karlsson. And from Vlasic to Burns, Braun to Vlasic, Dillon to Braun, Ryan/Martin to Dillon, and DeMelo to Ryan. Also, the model predicts an increase of about 20 goals scored and a pretty big drop in GA vs 2018.

There's probably an issue of "crowding out", and the model tends to estimate a bigger age-related decline than actually happens. This hurts Pavelski and Thornton especially.

I think the model's suggestion that Kane should be kept off PP and that Donskoi can't be counted on for big production is an interesting one.

I would be curious to know exactly how the model works.

I don’t really disagree with any of it, btw. I think the predictions are all pretty solid.

Nash - Thornton - Pavelski
Kane - Couture - Labanc
Meier - Hertl - Donskoi
Sorensen - Suomela - Goodrow/Karlsson

Not sure I like those line combos, but it's what makes sense. I think we need a playmaking winger for Couture.

Kane - Thornton - Pavelski
Hertl - Couture - XXXX
Meier - Suomela - Donskoi

We have LaBanc. Why not plug him into that XXXX and see who fails?

None of the players that are currently available, both through trade and UFA, are significant upgrades on anybody on our roster. Nash, or any of the other players available, are not guaranteed to be a significant upgrade to on anybody from our top-9.

 

[SharksAddict]

I would think that at this juncture, the Sharks would be best to move a player or two for draft picks.
We could use some.

They are all in this year. Not the time to ditch any useful parts for picks.

 

[Dicdonya]

Interesting stuff. I agree the Demelo to Karlsson analysis is the wrong way to look at it. We upgraded from Burns to Karlsson, Braun to Burns, and Demelo to Braun. With the left D not changing, I am not sure it makes sense to include them in the analysis.

This is really just a difference without a distinction. Even if we look at this way, it still turns out to be a significant increase in offense from the back end.

Karlsson --> Burns = 0-10pts difference
Burns--> Vlassic= 30-40pts difference
Vlassic---> Braun= mostly equal
Bruan---> Dillon= 5-10 pts difference
Dillon--> Ryan= 5-10pts difference

Still wind up very roughly with anywhere from 40- 70pts in upgraded offense from the back end. Now we could sit here and argue which of those numbers is right or wrong, but no matter what we agree on, one thing is for certain, losing Demelo and gaining Karlsson, is absolutely, unequivocally, an upgrade to the offensive output from the back end.

So based on that, and the model, which did not seem to really account for all this new offense from the back end, made me question its accuracy. Also it pretty clearly harpooned Pavs and Thornton because they are old, while giving major increases primarily to Meier/Labanc/Hertl because they are young. In other words it seemed to be modeling trends in age, and not really accounting for the impact someone like Karlsson would have on the forwards.

So its a fun model, and its always fun to speculate points totals, so I am in no way angry or upset at the model. I could easily be wrong, and that model turns out to be nearly spot on. If it is, sweet, and ON4 better post one every offseason after this.

 

[Makoshark]

Anybody think Kane can hit 70 points this year? Obviously health is a concern. Slightly more than his ppg of last year with no Thornton on his line.

 

[do0glas]

Anybody think Kane can hit 70 points this year? Obviously health is a concern. Slightly more than his ppg of last year with no Thornton on his line.

No. I think with the jumbo line unless he changes how he plays hes going to have a rough time. I have him around 55, though. Which will be dissapointing unless hes majorly tilting the ice at the same time.

 

[Maladroit]

Kane won't come close to 70 points because he's worthless on the power play. Reasonable expectations for him should be around 25 even strength goals if he stays healthy.

 

[Jaleel619]

I don't know about this season, but I think 60-65 this year is possible. I believe 100% his sweet spot will be on the 3rd line, he can be a 1 man show out there once the dust settles after the top players are done. Kane is the shotgun you pull out after you need to reload with your assault rifle. Creates a lot of space, shoots to score, and Donskoi is the perfect linemate for him, as he can make use of that space, create plays, and can count on to score.

Kane is a pure ES goal scorer, I do think after awhile of seeing how our PP works and how the goals usually come, that's the area where I think he will improve and pick up more points from. But I still think he brings the different look that we've needed, that would be more use on the 3rd line. No frills, doesn't need anybody, and always plays physical.

 

[do0glas]

I don't know about this season, but I think 60-65 this year is possible. I believe 100% his sweet spot will be on the 3rd line, he can be a 1 man show out there once the dust settles after the top players are done. Kane is the shotgun you pull out after you need to reload with your assault rifle. Creates a lot of space, shoots to score, and Donskoi is the perfect linemate for him, as he can make use of that space, create plays, and can count on to score.

Kane is a pure ES goal scorer, I do think after awhile of seeing how our PP works and how the goals usually come, that's the area where I think he will improve and pick up more points from. But I still think he brings the different look that we've needed, that would be more use on the 3rd line. No frills, doesn't need anybody, and always plays physical.

Kane should be on pp2. Simply because i think hes the least worst option outside of hertl, meier, donskoi, labanc. Heed not being in means kane should be there. But if hes actively tanking it id actually look at chartier radil or suomela.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

No. I think with the jumbo line unless he changes how he plays hes going to have a rough time. I have him around 55, though. Which will be dissapointing unless hes majorly tilting the ice at the same time.

Yeah, I'm not entirely certain that he will be successful on the Jumbo line either. I don't think that line is the right fit for him. I think that ultimately, Kane will be best on a 3rd line that plays a more uptempo style and more of a north-south game.

Historically, the Sharks have made systematic attempts to transition towards a north-south game, but Joe Thornton and a lack of playmaking and offensive ability from the defense have stopped them in their tracks. I really don't think that Thornton will be a good fit on a line with a north-south player like Kane whose cycling ability is far from his strong suit; especially when the RW is Pavelski.

I get what is going on; PDB thinks Joe/Joe and Hertl/Couture are inseparable duos on lines 1 and 2, respectively. And he thinks Kane and Meier are the next best forwards on the team, in that order, so he has pencilled them in as the 3rd wheel on each of those duos. But in doing so, he has completely ignored their styles of play, and where they should be most optimally deployed. And he has created some top-9 line configurations that are a far cry from optimal.

Kane should be on pp2. Simply because i think hes the least worst option outside of hertl, meier, donskoi, labanc. Heed not being in means kane should be there. But if hes actively tanking it id actually look at chartier radil or suomela.

Um, Kane, least worst option out of a group that contains LaBanc? On the power play? You think Evander Kane is a better PP player than Kevin LaBanc?