Speculation: Summer 2018 General Speculation/Discussion Thread

[MoeBartoli]

To distract from the Panarin stuff for a moment...

It seems like I do this every summer, but while there's a valid concern about the talent level at forward, I'm concerned about depth on D.

I like the group of 4, and I'm OK with Savard as 5, but we're looking at Kukan/Carlsson/Harrington at 6-8, right, unless I'm missing something. I know Kukan had a good worlds and Carlsson, while he didn't make the hoped-for step last year, is expected by many to be good. But I'm not sold on any of them at 6. There is a handful of age 30+ UFA blueliners and I wonder if anyone but me would feel better about one of them in the top 6 than our current depth?

Perhaps it's not so much those guys at 6-8 that concerns me but what comes after that?

I think Kukan is a capable #6 as he possesses skills consistent with today's game. He demonstrated this in the Worlds. But I share your concerns, DSL, on Carlsson and Harrington. And because Murray and Kukan have durability concerns - and Zach has question marks on how ready he'll be - the concerns are heightened.

Despite those concerns, I'm still more concerned about the need for one more reliable middle 6 goal scorer - and that's with Bread still here which I deem unlikely.

 

[Jackets16]

To distract from the Panarin stuff for a moment...

It seems like I do this every summer, but while there's a valid concern about the talent level at forward, I'm concerned about depth on D.

I like the group of 4, and I'm OK with Savard as 5, but we're looking at Kukan/Carlsson/Harrington at 6-8, right, unless I'm missing something. I know Kukan had a good worlds and Carlsson, while he didn't make the hoped-for step last year, is expected by many to be good. But I'm not sold on any of them at 6. There is a handful of age 30+ UFA blueliners and I wonder if anyone but me would feel better about one of them in the top 6 than our current depth?

Perhaps it's not so much those guys at 6-8 that concerns me but what comes after that?

I'm not concerned at all. Our group of defensemen are better than just about every group in the NHL. Our 6-8 guys are just fine for the role they will be asked to play.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

I'm not concerned at all. Our group of defensemen are better than just about every group in the NHL. Our 6-8 guys are just fine for the role they will be asked to play.

Does your confidence come from the elite top pair, the solid group of 5 or the full complement of guys who will see action in the NHL this season? Because as it stands now, at least two of those three at 6-8 are going to see significant playing time.

This is not me challenging your take, just having a discussion, because I'm weary of the Panarin stuff.

 

[JohnnyJacket13]

We shouldn't have given up on Heatherington so soon imo. He'd be in that trio fighting for a spot rn.

The dude's played in just 6 NHL games, so no. All of Kukan, Carlsson, and even Harrington would be ahead of him on the organizational depth chart.

 

[Monk]

The dude's played in just 6 NHL games, so no. All of Kukan, Carlsson, and even Harrington would be ahead of him on the organizational depth chart.

Wow. This conversation is making me realize Heatherington and Harrington had morphed into the same person in my head. Woops.

 

[major major]

I think Kukan is perfectly capable of being a 6 right now.

The issue is Kukan (and Murray to an extent) being healthy for a full season. Harrington and Carlson being the number 7 could be more the issue. Might be nice to have one more call up capable player.

There are a lot of UFA D chum out there still. We'd need someone who can be scratched a lot though, like another Harrington type but hopefully a bit better. Postma, Siemens, Pateryn, etc... I haven't seen too much of those guys but they are in the category of player. Brandon Davidson I have seen a lot -- he was terrible in Montreal but good elsewhere. He probably slots around where Kukan is. I don't know why he hasn't been picked up, he'd be my guy.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

FYI I moved all the Kucherov follow-up to the Panarin thread. Since it could potentially impact that situation and there's a thread dedicated to it.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

There are a lot of UFA D chum out there still. We'd need someone who can be scratched a lot though, like another Harrington type but hopefully a bit better. Postma, Siemens, Pateryn, etc... I haven't seen too much of those guys but they are in the category of player. Brandon Davidson I have seen a lot -- he was terrible in Montreal but good elsewhere. He probably slots around where Kukan is. I don't know why he hasn't been picked up, he'd be my guy.

Seems possible one of the chum will get a camp invite, maybe?

 

[Jackets16]

Does your confidence come from the elite top pair, the solid group of 5 or the full complement of guys who will see action in the NHL this season? Because as it stands now, at least two of those three at 6-8 are going to see significant playing time.

This is not me challenging your take, just having a discussion, because I'm weary of the Panarin stuff.

All 3 .

The fact our top pair is go good and will play so many minutes (and so many important minutes). The fact our top 5 is better than most. Also, I can't imagine our 6-8 is that much worse than most other teams' 6-8. Also, I don't think it is that hard to pick up a 6-8 defenseman or trade for one if we have to.

 

[major major]

All 3 .

The fact our top pair is go good and will play so many minutes (and so many important minutes). The fact our top 5 is better than most. Also, I can't imagine our 6-8 is that much worse than most other teams' 6-8. Also, I don't think it is that hard to pick up a 6-8 defenseman or trade for one if we have to.

Last years Caps provide a good example. Bowey wasn't ready, so they did a mid-season trade for Jerabek and Kempny, rolling the dice on two guys. Jerabek was just depth but Kempny turned into a top 4 D for them.

 

[CBJFan827]

With us unsure about when Werenski will be ready to go, plus the general youth of our defense, I still think a one-year deal for Brooks Orpik isn't a bad idea as a 6/7

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

With us unsure about when Werenski will be ready to go, plus the general youth of our defense, I still think a one-year deal for Brooks Orpik isn't a bad idea as a 6/7

Yeah I forgot about Zach's recovery. Add in other durability concerns and I'm feeling even less confident. I don't know if Orpik specifically is the answer, but I could see it.

 

[blahblah]

With us unsure about when Werenski will be ready to go, plus the general youth of our defense, I still think a one-year deal for Brooks Orpik isn't a bad idea as a 6/7

Our defense is pretty devoid of playoff experience. The experience they have is a whole lot of losing in the first round. It's one of the things that Cole brought.

I'm not really a fan of bringing in a 37 year old Orpik and the UFA market is pretty much picked clean.

 

[Jackets16]

With us unsure about when Werenski will be ready to go, plus the general youth of our defense, I still think a one-year deal for Brooks Orpik isn't a bad idea as a 6/7

I do.

Niskanen - 68gp, +24
Djoos - 63gp, +13
Orlov - 82gp, +10
Chorney - 24gp, +8
Ness - 8gp, +2
Kempny - 22gp, +1
Carlson - 82gp, +0
Jerabek - 11gp, -1
Bowey - 51gp, -3
Orpik - 81gp, -9

 

[major major]

I'd prefer Brandon Davidson, but if you want a veteran with a lot of playoff experience, there are several other options beyond Orpik.

Paul Martin, Bieksa, Hamhuis, Gorges, Oduya, Seidenberg, all still free for the taking. Some of those guys might retire or go to Europe if their only option is to be a part-time scratch, but perhaps some would find it their best option.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I'm a fan of bringing in one vet defenseman on a one year deal too. Doesn't matter to me which one. But I think Z is going to miss the start of the season (maybe the first month? Idk, but they need to be cautious) and that would make both Kukan and Harrington/Carlsson/Clendending/Cross/Simpson NHL regulars for a while. I don't have comfort in that at all.

Murray-Jones
Nutivaara-Savard
Kukan/Carlsson/Clendening/Cross/Simpson-Harrington/Carlsson/Clendening/Cross/Simpson

No bueno

 

[Xoggz22]

Right now you're probably looking at Murray and Jones in the top pair for the first 2 months of the season and then add two young guys in teh bottom two pairs... Kukan and Carlson? Kukan and Harrington? I think CBJ looks to add a veteran that can be a #7 guy.

 

[Theo Von]

I do.

Niskanen - 68gp, +24
Djoos - 63gp, +13
Orlov - 82gp, +10
Chorney - 24gp, +8
Ness - 8gp, +2
Kempny - 22gp, +1
Carlson - 82gp, +0
Jerabek - 11gp, -1
Bowey - 51gp, -3
Orpik - 81gp, -9

Cause plus minus is the end all be all stat, huh!

 

[CBJx614]

The dude's played in just 6 NHL games, so no. All of Kukan, Carlsson, and even Harrington would be ahead of him on the organizational depth chart.

Yeah I wouldn't be so sure, he's the youngest defender on Dallas' D. He'd easily be in the discussion the 6,7,8 rotation...

 

[CBJFan827]

I do.

Niskanen - 68gp, +24
Djoos - 63gp, +13
Orlov - 82gp, +10
Chorney - 24gp, +8
Ness - 8gp, +2
Kempny - 22gp, +1
Carlson - 82gp, +0
Jerabek - 11gp, -1
Bowey - 51gp, -3
Orpik - 81gp, -9

+/- only says so much out of context, but for argument's sake, take a look at the playoff numbers:

Playoff Numbers:
Orpik, 24 games, +17
Carlson, 24 Games, +11
Niskanen, 24 games, +6
Orlov, 24 games, +5
Djoos, 22 games, +5
Kempny, 24 games, +1
Jerabek, 2 games, -1

 

[Jackets16]

NM

 

[Jackets16]

+/- only says so much out of context, but for argument's sake, take a look at the playoff numbers:

Playoff Numbers:
Orpik, 24 games, +17
Carlson, 24 Games, +11
Niskanen, 24 games, +6
Orlov, 24 games, +5
Djoos, 22 games, +5
Kempny, 24 games, +1
Jerabek, 2 games, -1

Thanks. Now, what matters more, regular season or playoffs? Because some on here want to pay Bobrovsky based on his regular season performance .

 

[CBJFan827]

Thanks. Now, what matters more, regular season or playoffs? Because some on here want to pay Bobrovsky based on his regular season performance .

I'm in the camp that doesn't want to pay Bob either way

 

[KJ Dangler]

Connor Hellebuyck just signed a 6 yr 37 m contract . Cap hit 6.16 per year . Someone please explain to me why we should pay Bob 10 mill per season .

 

[CBJFan827]

Okay this has been bugging me for awhile. What do people (individuals) mean by "bounce back season"? I especially am looking at Jenner, Dubinsky, and Foligno. @The Wheelchair 's comment in another thread brought this up most recently. I think it made more sense here to comment on, though.

Jenner has been roughly the same point producer the last two years, so I don't see what a "bounce back" season would entail. I think he is what he is as a 35-40 point secondary scorer. On his new deal, I think that's reasonable and I don't expect him to be a 30 goal scorer again. If he's in the right situation (say if he stays with Wennberg and Bjorkstrand and they break out consistently), he might hit 20 goals and 45 points, but that's about it. There's a difference between a bounce back season (which Jenner doesn't need) and a break out season, which I would not expect from him.

As for Foligno, look as his last 5 years of point totals: 39 73 37 51 33 (all with 70+ games played). I notice two things here. First, his points bounce between 35-40 one year and better production years the next. Second, I think to his usage during the last four seasons: carried offense with RyJo in 14-15, had no role/new captain in 15-16 aka bouncing around like jackknife Letestu, 16-17 consistent role, and then last year had to bounce between wing and center/different lines/etc.

I've been saying this for years that Foligno excels offensively when he is given a consistent role. I admit he was a mess last year, but most players would be in that situation. To me, a bounce back for Foligno would be something similar to his 16-17 season, putting up about 25 goals and 50 points. I think that's reasonable and possible, depending on how things work out. If he's being used like we used Letestu the first time, he will continue to disappoint.

Finally, Dubinsky. I keep seeing people say they don't expect a bounce back for him. But what does that mean? Do you mean you don't see him ever being a 2nd line center again, putting up 50 points? To that, I agree. What I do see as reasonable based on his probable usage would be a strong year as a PKer and hitting 30 points. Would anyone really consider that not a "bounce back" season for Dubi and a net win for the Jackets?

If anything, Cam is the one who needs a "bounce back" season to prove he's 16-17 Cam and not 2013-2015 Cam.

The concern out of all of this isn't really secondary scoring, which I think will be fine, but elite production. With or without Panarin, it comes down to Dubois/Bjorkstrand/Wennberg/Anderson taking another step and Foligno/Cam bouncing bakc.