Okay this has been bugging me for awhile. What do people (individuals) mean by "bounce back season"? I especially am looking at Jenner, Dubinsky, and Foligno.
@The Wheelchair 's comment in another thread brought this up most recently. I think it made more sense here to comment on, though.
Jenner has been roughly the same point producer the last two years, so I don't see what a "bounce back" season would entail. I think he is what he is as a 35-40 point secondary scorer. On his new deal, I think that's reasonable and I don't expect him to be a 30 goal scorer again. If he's in the right situation (say if he stays with Wennberg and Bjorkstrand and they break out consistently), he might hit 20 goals and 45 points, but that's about it. There's a difference between a bounce back season (which Jenner doesn't need) and a break out season, which I would not expect from him.
As for Foligno, look as his last 5 years of point totals: 39 73 37 51 33 (all with 70+ games played). I notice two things here. First, his points bounce between 35-40 one year and better production years the next. Second, I think to his usage during the last four seasons: carried offense with RyJo in 14-15, had no role/new captain in 15-16 aka bouncing around like jackknife Letestu, 16-17 consistent role, and then last year had to bounce between wing and center/different lines/etc.
I've been saying this for years that Foligno excels offensively when he is given a consistent role. I admit he was a mess last year, but most players would be in that situation. To me, a bounce back for Foligno would be something similar to his 16-17 season, putting up about 25 goals and 50 points. I think that's reasonable and possible, depending on how things work out. If he's being used like we used Letestu the first time, he will continue to disappoint.
Finally, Dubinsky. I keep seeing people say they don't expect a bounce back for him. But what does that mean? Do you mean you don't see him ever being a 2nd line center again, putting up 50 points? To that, I agree. What I do see as reasonable based on his probable usage would be a strong year as a PKer and hitting 30 points. Would anyone really consider that not a "bounce back" season for Dubi and a net win for the Jackets?
If anything, Cam is the one who needs a "bounce back" season to prove he's 16-17 Cam and not 2013-2015 Cam.
The concern out of all of this isn't really secondary scoring, which I think will be fine, but elite production. With or without Panarin, it comes down to Dubois/Bjorkstrand/Wennberg/Anderson taking another step and Foligno/Cam bouncing bakc.