Prospect Info: STI 2021 Draft Rankings 2.0 for May -- Top 64

[Eggtimer]

it's a fact, that in general d take longer to develop than f.

if seattle plans to build through the draft and doesn't expect to be an early contender like lvk surprisingly was, they would be smart to draft d first. a 1d is basically equally rare as a 1c and you better have both, if you want to win a sc. adding a d prospect, who need more time to contribute, also improves your chances to draft high in 2022 and 2023, when franchise level c and f will be available.

The only real why I think that Seattle will go with a forward first is that they will be getting a pile of very good D through the expansion draft. I’m hoping they are satisfied enough that they go Beniers or Eklund . (Keeps those two out West as well so that’s good) .

 

[FooteBahl]

The only real why I think that Seattle will go with a forward first is that they will be getting a pile of very good D through the expansion draft. I’m hoping they are satisfied enough that they go Beniers or Eklund . (Keeps those two out West as well so that’s good) .

Are there any restrictions on Seattle trading people they take in the expansion draft? Let’s say they take Butcher from us, could they then flip him to someone else right away? Or does he have to stay on the roster for a set amount of time?

 

[FooteBahl]

Craig’s List: Defencemen dominate top of NHL draft prospect rankings - TSN.ca

Interesting ranking:

1. Owen Power (LHD)
2. Brandt Clarke (RHD)
3. Simon Edvinsson (LHD)
4. Luke Hughes (LHD)
5. Matt Beniers (C)
6. William Eklund (LW)
7. Dylan Guenther (RW)
8. Zachary L'Heureux (C)
9. Jesper Wallstedt (G)
10. Fedor Svechkov (C)

 

[New Jersey Devils]

I just can't see Buffalo taking a defenseman regardless of where they pick if they lose Eichel and/or Reinhart.

 

[ScottyK]

If we do get Luke what is the timeline ? Two seasons at Michigan and then comes over most likely ?

 

[FooteBahl]

If we do get Luke what is the timeline ? Two seasons at Michigan and then comes over most likely ?

 

[StevenToddIves]

Agree Othmann is a good player too just could see him going in teens but would be happy with him at that pick too....

You might be correct about Othmann. There were a ton of NHL executives and scouts in attendance for the U-18 Gold Medal contest, and they all watched Othmann absolutely play a stunningly brilliant game.

Many more mathematically based sports writers will pooh-pooh the idea of "clutch", but the fact remains that people who play the game and work in professional front offices are often talking about it. Othmann went out for the biggest game of his life and was just outstanding -- making highlight reel plays, flattening opposing defensemen with physicality, passing with precision and forechecking with reckless abandon.

It's not as if Brennan Othmann came out of nowhere. This was a kid who was slated to play on the top line with 2021 top-7 pick Dylan Guenther and 2022 ostensible first overall pick Shane Wright for good reason -- Othmann is a high-effort, high-skill sniper with sandpaper and intelligence, a perfect compliment to your stars in a top 6 role.

As such, it would not be shocking if Othmann was drafted earlier than his consensus ranking, as high as the early teens. Othmann's highest ranking among major scouting bureaus heading into the tournament was #17, by FC Hockey. His lowest was #32, by McKeen's. The TSN/McKenzie rankings are generally considered to be the strongest draft-day indicator, and Othmann was rated #25 there. My ranking of Othmann has been the highest I have seen, but it's important to note that my rankings are the only ones I'm using for my research which have been compiled after the U-18 tournament -- I have ranked Brennan Othmann #16 overall.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Craig’s List: Defencemen dominate top of NHL draft prospect rankings - TSN.ca

Interesting ranking:

1. Owen Power (LHD)
2. Brandt Clarke (RHD)
3. Simon Edvinsson (LHD)
4. Luke Hughes (LHD)
5. Matt Beniers (C)
6. William Eklund (LW)
7. Dylan Guenther (RW)
8. Zachary L'Heureux (C)
9. Jesper Wallstedt (G)
10. Fedor Svechkov (C)

Haha, L'Heureux at #8 is classic Button. I'll say this -- though I often disagree with the ex-Calgary GM, I love the fact that he cannot give a damn about convention.

 

[My3Sons]

Haha, L'Heureux at #8 is classic Button. I'll say this -- though I often disagree with the ex-Calgary GM, I love the fact that he cannot give a damn about convention.

Do you think his public rankings are purely BPA or maybe some tweaking to stimulate views and talking points?

 

[StevenToddIves]

I just can't see Buffalo taking a defenseman regardless of where they pick if they lose Eichel and/or Reinhart.

There is good reason to believe that Buffalo's target at #1 is Matthew Beniers. The lowest the Sabres could drop is conceivably #3 overall, and if they miss out on Beniers I feel we should be discussing William Eklund as a possible secondary target.

 

[StevenToddIves]

If we do get Luke what is the timeline ? Two seasons at Michigan and then comes over most likely ?

It's important to understand that Luke Hughes missed the deadline for the 2022 draft by only a week. So I would say the prudent estimate for Hughes to compete for an NHL slot would be the 2023-24 season.

This is not a reason not to draft him, of course. Luke is the best skater in the draft and combines elite passing and puck-handling, in a 6'2 frame. His potential as a transitional offensive defenseman who puts up huge scoring totals cannot be understated. However, you're going to need to be patient with him if you wish for him to achieve this potential.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Do you think his public rankings are purely BPA or maybe some tweaking to stimulate views and talking points?

Button is not one of the draft analysts who use what I call "shock ratings" to boost his visibility. Button already has the visibility. But he is one of the analysts who falls in love with a player or is critical of a player in his early viewings and then tries over and over to justify his early ranking instead of adapting.

If you look back at Button rankings over the years, some of his more unconventional rankings look alright, but others look downright awful.

2015: Button ranks Oliver Kylington #8, Nick Merkley #10, Jansen Harkins #14. Mathew Barzal #19!

2016: Button ranks Brett Howden #18, Cam Dineen #22, Vitali Abramov #23.

2017: Button ranks Martin Necas #7, Timothy Liljegren #10, P-O Joseph #13, Alexei Lipanov #22.

2018: Button ranks Serron Noel #14, Bode Wilde #16, Filip Hallander #21, Jacob Olofsson #25.

From those series of anachronistic draft rankings over 4 years, we can determine that Button is --- well, very unpredictable. He has a few old-school Canadian Fs (Merkley, Harkins, Howden, Noel) and a few fast Swedes with size but hockey IQ questions (Kylington, Liljegren, Olofsson) and occasionally becomes enamored with a Euro forward with high upside but significant risk (Abramov, Lipanov, Hallander). Sometimes he nails it by bucking convention -- I remember also ranking Necas in my top 7 when his consensus ranking was around the early teens. Other rankings of his just look awful in time -- up-ranking Kylington 20 spots while down-ranking Barzal a dozen in 2015 did not age well.

However, in 2015 Button created actual controversy by ranking Noah Hanifin -- the consensus #3 overall pick -- in the late teens. This not only bucked Button's own convention of generally liking big, fast defensemen, but it also was a unique and -- as it happened -- very accurate ranking.

So, I always pay close attention to the Button rankings. I feel he is the closest approximation to the variance from NHL scouting team to NHL scouting team. This is to say that there could be a team or two out there which have Zachary L'Heureux in their top 10, but there's also probably more than a few who have left L’Heureux out of their first round altogether.

 

[My3Sons]

Button is not one of the draft analysts who use what I call "shock ratings" to boost his visibility. Button already has the visibility. But he is one of the analysts who falls in love with a player or is critical of a player in his early viewings and then tries over and over to justify his early ranking instead of adapting.

If you look back at Button rankings over the years, some of his more unconventional rankings look alright, but others look downright awful.

2015: Button ranks Oliver Kylington #8, Nick Merkley #10, Jansen Harkins #14. Mathew Barzal #19!

2016: Button ranks Brett Howden #18, Cam Dineen #22, Vitali Abramov #23.

2017: Button ranks Martin Necas #7, Timothy Liljegren #10, P-O Joseph #13, Alexei Lipanov #22.

2018: Button ranks Serron Noel #14, Bode Wilde #16, Filip Hallander #21, Jacob Olofsson #25.

From those series of anachronistic draft rankings over 4 years, we can determine that Button is --- well, very unpredictable. He has a few old-school Canadian Fs (Merkley, Harkins, Howden, Noel) and a few fast Swedes with size but hockey IQ questions (Kylington, Liljegren, Olofsson) and occasionally becomes enamored with a Euro forward with high upside but significant risk (Abramov, Lipanov, Hallander). Sometimes he nails it by bucking convention -- I remember also ranking Necas in my top 7 when his consensus ranking was around the early teens. Other rankings of his just look awful in time -- up-ranking Kylington 20 spots while down-ranking Barzal a dozen in 2015 did not age well.

However, in 2015 Button created actual controversy by ranking Noah Hanifin -- the consensus #3 overall pick -- in the late teens. This not only bucked Button's own convention of generally liking big, fast defensemen, but it also was a unique and -- as it happened -- very accurate ranking.

So, I always pay close attention to the Button rankings. I feel he is the closest approximation to the variance from NHL scouting team to NHL scouting team. This is to say that there could be a team or two out there which have Zachary L'Heureux in their top 10, but there's also probably more than a few who have left L’Heureux out of their first round altogether.

That's fair. I think the important thing with pundits is to be comfortable their rankings are honest and accurately reflect how they see it as opposed to looking to create some controversy. I agree that the contrarian view can be helpful when evaluating the prospects from afar. One need only look at the Mukhamadullin pick to be reminded that NHL teams are often isolation chambers when it comes to the draft and likely don't care what the publicly available scouting says about a player. I'd be curious if the "off the board" picks turn out better or worse than the consensus over time?

 

[aboriginal]

I actually kinda like liljegren and wouldn’t mind seeing if we could get him on the cheap and see if he can become anything. Worth a try but I won’t hold my breath.

 

[StevenToddIves]

That's fair. I think the important thing with pundits is to be comfortable their rankings are honest and accurately reflect how they see it as opposed to looking to create some controversy. I agree that the contrarian view can be helpful when evaluating the prospects from afar. One need only look at the Mukhamadullin pick to be reminded that NHL teams are often isolation chambers when it comes to the draft and likely don't care what the publicly available scouting says about a player. I'd be curious if the "off the board" picks turn out better or worse than the consensus over time?

I'd say it depends on the particular pick. The Mukhamadullin pick was not even the most "off the board" pick of the 2020 first round -- that was one pick later, when Columbus took Yegor Chinakhov.

The most "off the board" pick in Devils history is also the worst pick in Devils history -- Adrian Foster in the 2001 first round. Foster had missed virtually all of the previous two seasons due to injury, and was routinely left off top 200 rankings.

 

[StevenToddIves]

I actually kinda like liljegren and wouldn’t mind seeing if we could get him on the cheap and see if he can become anything. Worth a try but I won’t hold my breath.

Liljegren has potential as an offensive-minded middle-pairing RD in the NHL for certain. But he's not an "on the cheap" guy, Toronto thinks highly of him and he's probably the Leafs 2nd best RD prospect after only Topi Niemela.

 

[aboriginal]

Liljegren has potential as an offensive-minded middle-pairing RD in the NHL for certain. But he's not an "on the cheap" guy, Toronto thinks highly of him and he's probably the Leafs 2nd best RD prospect after only Topi Niemela.

fine fine “cheapish” then . I just mean if we can swap one of our many up and comers they might like for him. It’ll never happen anyways, just would like to fleece them cuz the leafs irk me.

 

[OmNomNom]

Liljegren has potential as an offensive-minded middle-pairing RD in the NHL for certain. But he's not an "on the cheap" guy, Toronto thinks highly of him and he's probably the Leafs 2nd best RD prospect after only Topi Niemela.

wait how do they still think highly of him, he's been stewing for 4 yrs

 

[Eggtimer]

There is good reason to believe that Buffalo's target at #1 is Matthew Beniers. The lowest the Sabres could drop is conceivably #3 overall, and if they miss out on Beniers I feel we should be discussing William Eklund as a possible secondary target.

I can see Seattle wanting a C as well . They will have TONS of D through expansion draft . Here’s hoping

 

[PKs Broken Stick]

Here's my draft ranking from "devils draft board" perspective.

1. Brandt Clarke
2. Matthew Beniers
3. Luke Hughes
4. Owen Power
5. Kent Johnson
6. Dylan Guenther
7. William Eklund
8. Fabian Lysell
9. Chaz Lucius
10. Mason McTavish
11. Isak Rosen
12. Francesco Pinelli
13. Stanislav Svozil
14. Corson Ceulemans
15. Brennan Othmann
16. Fyodor Svechkov
17. Aleksi Heimosalmi
18. Matt Coronato
19. Sasha Pastujov
20. Oskar Olausson
21. Jesper Wallstedt
22. Simon Edvinsson
23. Cole Sillinger
24. Nikita Chibrikov
25. Zachary Bolduc
26. Simon Robertsson
27. Zachary LHeureux
28. Xavier Bourgault
29. Carson Lambos
30. Aatu Raty
31. Sebastian Cossa

 

[AfroThunder396]

Buffalo drafting a forward makes a lot of sense. However, none of that matters because it's Buffalo. Adams will draft whoever Terry Pegula tells him to draft.

Even if Eichel goes to the media and screams how much he wants out, he's under contract for the next 4 years. The Sabres hold all the cards. I'm sure in Terry's mind he thinks Eichel will come around as long as they make the playoffs once or twice. He's a stubborn idiot who thinks he's the smartest guy in the room and will never admit defeat.

So as much as it makes sense on paper for them to draft a forward, I wouldn't count on it because they are not a rational organization.

 

[aboriginal]

How I long for the days of mogilny, hawerchuk, lafontaine, bodger, smehlik and so on. I’m just glad they went back to their classic jerseys and dropped those dumb ass front numbers. I don’t have the words to explain how much I love their jerseys.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Buffalo drafting a forward makes a lot of sense. However, none of that matters because it's Buffalo. Adams will draft whoever Terry Pegula tells him to draft.

Even if Eichel goes to the media and screams how much he wants out, he's under contract for the next 4 years. The Sabres hold all the cards. I'm sure in Terry's mind he thinks Eichel will come around as long as they make the playoffs once or twice. He's a stubborn idiot who thinks he's the smartest guy in the room and will never admit defeat.

So as much as it makes sense on paper for them to draft a forward, I wouldn't count on it because they are not a rational organization.

Agreed that it's tough to "count on" Buffalo to do anything, and also agreed on Pegula. This is a very dysfunctional organization right now, unfortunately. Their GM received less in return for Taylor Hall and Brandon Montour than the Devils did for Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac, or Columbus did for Nick Foligno. Their scouting has not drafted well in a decade, even blowing multiple top 10 picks. They've given huge deals with to then-complimentary players and now-headache contracts Jeff Skinner and Kyle Okposo.

So, it's tough to say what the Sabres are going to do. It might be as simple as Power is 6'6, skates well and everyone agrees he's really good at hockey, so they draft him. Or maybe Pegula is jealous of all the young star Hugheses in the NHL and takes Luke. Who knows with these guys?

But I try to apply a certain degree of logic when mock drafting, and right now the logic says that Beniers would be their best pick at #1 or #2 overall. So, I guess I'll stick with that. I've said a bunch that some of my best hockey buds are Buffalo fans -- I drive up to watch the draft with them most years and we have one of the funniest group text chats you'll ever see during pretty much any Sabres game. I'd really like to see this team turn the corner. But every time Buffalo makes another big move, you find yourself slapping yourself in the forehead and being like, "They did what?" so it's tough to say.

 

[Blackjack]

Buffalo drafting a forward makes a lot of sense. However, none of that matters because it's Buffalo. Adams will draft whoever Terry Pegula tells him to draft.

Even if Eichel goes to the media and screams how much he wants out, he's under contract for the next 4 years. The Sabres hold all the cards. I'm sure in Terry's mind he thinks Eichel will come around as long as they make the playoffs once or twice. He's a stubborn idiot who thinks he's the smartest guy in the room and will never admit defeat.

So as much as it makes sense on paper for them to draft a forward, I wouldn't count on it because they are not a rational organization.

Anyone who watched the PLD saga unfold and still thinks its a good idea to have Eichel on the roster in October deserves what they get. It will be a complete disaster if they refuse to trade him, and then his NMC will kick and they'll be really screwed. You'd think after they got peanuts for Taylor Hall they'd have some appreciation for how that can destroy their leverage too.

 

[StevenToddIves]

Anyone who watched the PLD saga unfold and still thinks its a good idea to have Eichel on the roster in October deserves what they get. It will be a complete disaster if they refuse to trade him, and then his NMC will kick and they'll be really screwed. You'd think after they got peanuts for Taylor Hall they'd have some appreciation for how that can destroy their leverage too.

I read an interview with an "anonymous" NHL GM who said if he were running the Sabres' organization, he would "auction trade" Eichel. This means you basically send out a mass message to every other GM that you will trade Eichel to the best bid. Essentially, you make the teams compete with each other for Eichel's services.

I think the subtext is that Kevyn Adams, who has been fleeced in every single trade he's made, has not done this. He's talking to each team independent of each other. This makes me fear another bad trade for the Sabres, who I would really like to see get good value for Eichel. The other problem with Buffalo is that their scouting has not proven to be top-notch in recent years, which makes me worry -- although they are certain to get a first round pick in the deal -- will target the wrong prospects in a trade.

Hopefully, I'm wrong and the Sabres find a way to get Turcotte/Vilardi/Anderson/1st+ from LA or Boldy/Dumba/1st from Minnesota and really get good value. But we're talking about a team which just traded Taylor Hall within the division for significantly less than the returns for Nick Foligno or Kyle Palmieri.