Prospect Info: STI 2021 Draft Rankings 2.0 for May -- Top 64
- Thread starter StevenToddIves
- Start date
If I'm Seattle and I'm drafting, my first choice would be Beniers. It's just fact that top D and top wingers are easier to find later in the draft than top centers, most of whom have been picked in the top 10.
This would be my short list of elite NHL centers with their draft positions:
Bergeron BOS (45)
Eichel BUF (2)
Aho CAR (35)
McKinnon COL (1)
Seguin DAL (2)
Draisaitl EDM (3)
McDavid EDM (1)
Barkov FLA (2)
Kopitar LA (11)
Barzal NYI (16)
Couturier PHI (8)
Malkin PIT (2)
Crosby PIT (1)
O'Reilly STL (33)
Matthews TOR (1)
Stamkos TB (1)
Point TB (79)
Pettersson VAN (6)
Backstrom WSH (4)
Scheifele WPG (7)
Out of 20 players, 11 -- over half -- were top 3 overall picks. I would say the most likely player to join this list in the next year or two is Jack Hughes, who is also a #1 overall pick. The next choice would be Byfield, a #2 overall pick. If we count players who were once elite centers and still playing, we would have to add Thornton, Toews and Spezza -- all top 5 picks as well.
There are only 4 out of 20 elite centers who were taken after the first round. There is only one elite center in the NHL who was taken after the mid-point in the 2nd round... Brayden Point.
Seattle would be wise to prioritize Matt Beniers, and I'm certain they are aware of the facts I'm writing in this post. Top wingers are often found after the first round in the draft -- in this year's top 20 scorers we would have to mention Stone, Marchand, Panarin, Guentzel, DeBrincat and Perron.
Looking at the last decade of Norris winners, you'd have to say elite D can also be found after the first round -- Josi, Giordano, Keith, Subban and Lidstrom make exactly half of the list.
Vezina Trophies? Even more late-rounders -- Hellebuyck, Rinne, Bobrovsky, Holtby, Lundqvist, Thomas.
I'd say this is good news for the Devils, because if they're picking 4th or 5th I think we can say with some confidence that there is little way Beniers gets past the Kraken.
Personally, I feel Beniers goes top 2. Several teams in the top 10 would have to strongly consider him if they won the lottery -- Buffalo, Anaheim, Detroit, Columbus, San Jose, Calgary. I could even imagine Ottawa in a trade up scenario -- this is a team with the #2 prospect pool in the NHL, but they are desperate for a guy like Beniers up the middle.
Essentially, if the Devils finish with the #4 overall pick, I feel they are guaranteed one of the Big 3 D. At 5 it gets dicier and at 6 it's nail-biting time. Any lower than that, I feel it's impossible unless one team is gutsy enough to take a goalie in Wallstedt and another team brain-locks and takes Edvinsson. This is of course possible -- LA, Ottawa or Detroit could take Wallstedt very high, while Anaheim's front office is often bafflingly obsessed with big + fast guys over superior hockey players.
Best case scenario is the Devils lose out, finish with the fourth overall slot, and then two of the top three teams win the lottery. It's a long shot, but it would likely guarantee the Devils one of Clarke or Hughes.
Wasn’t Lambos once grouped with the Hughes, Clarke, Power tier? Why did he slide out of the top-ten? I know he has a mysterious injury, but that seemed to only add insult to injury, literally. Seems like he's been ranked outside of the top-10 all year.
I think his ability to create shooting lanes for himself combined with a wicked release for a Dman is Makar-esque. Maybe he’s an option if the Dmen we’d want go early, so we go forward, and then hope Lambos is there with the Isles pick.
I think his ability to create shooting lanes for himself combined with a wicked release for a Dman is Makar-esque. Maybe he’s an option if the Dmen we’d want go early, so we go forward, and then hope Lambos is there with the Isles pick.
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hidek91
Registered User
I think that the waist stripes were better for our jerseys than theirs and in both cases those stripes made numbers and names harder to read as there were too many things condensed on the back of the jersey.
But overall, I think that their version with the waist stripe was very good as well.
Lou is God
Registered User
Anheim took Paul Kariya in 1993 and Florida took Rob Niedermayer same year, you're looking at both teams second draft year.
So your count should read:
7 centers
4 right wingers
4 defensemen
1 left winger
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Eggtimer
Registered User
I know Clarke is looking amazing and I hope he my personal first choice , however I could see the Devils sticking with the speed / skating style game and going with the best skater plus skill D ?
I have no clue. I just want the Devils to get the best players possible and not make any reaches. Yes I would be disappointed if we don’t get one of the three D but we should get a top tier prospect at any rate. I didn’t know that Geunther or Eklund would be considered a better prospect than Holtz. I assumed they were slightly behind him in talent , but I guess not. That is something to look forward to as well if we “settle” for a forward
I have no clue. I just want the Devils to get the best players possible and not make any reaches. Yes I would be disappointed if we don’t get one of the three D but we should get a top tier prospect at any rate. I didn’t know that Geunther or Eklund would be considered a better prospect than Holtz. I assumed they were slightly behind him in talent , but I guess not. That is something to look forward to as well if we “settle” for a forward
I’m nervous for our remaining 2 games. If we win both we could pass Columbus, Detroit, Ottawa, Calgary, San Jose, and Los Angeles. Add in Seattle and the draft lottery and we might not even be picking top 10 anymore
You forgot Vancouver but it is very unlikely that we would move out of top10 even if we won 2 games.
Seems like exactly what NJD needs on the wing in addition to more goal scoring from the position.
If Othmann and L’Heureux are there at the Isles pick, who would you take?
If the team doesn’t have the chance to draft Hughes or Clarke it will be disappointing but you have to think any non-BPA bias is off the table at that point. At least you know that whoever they oick is the guy they think is the best as opposed to a positional need or reaching for your franchise center’s brother (note I am not suggesting Hughes would be a reach. Just that if they see him as a lesser player than someone else but pick Hughes anyway in their eyes he’s not the BPA).
Eggtimer
Registered User
Agh we could technically be in a kinda crappy spot if we win our remaining games and others lose. I haven’t looked today but is there still potential to be in the 10th or even worse spot ?
If basically everyone that we need to win loses and we win out we can slide out of the top 10 I do believe.
Captain3rdLine
Registered User
- Sep 24, 2020
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Yes we could if we win out. It would suck but getting 15 of our last 18 points would not be the worst way to end the season and would certainly give our young group a lot of confidence going into next year.
beekay414
#FireEveryone
Which one of you buttheads is on my Twitter spewing Wallstedt stuff at me? LOL
Getting 15 out of 18 points is what I want this team to do when the games matter. It seems like the last few years we lose the meaningful games and then our players... Zacha especially... turn up at the end of the season after we have already been eliminated
nugg
NJ Hammerhead Bats!
beekay414
#FireEveryone
This guy is relentless! Which one of you is this?
After a great night, the Devils are overwhelmingly likely to have a top 5 pick in the 2021 draft.
This is amazing news. We have all spoken at length about the Devils need for a top-pairing defenseman, and the the 2021 class has likely three of them, what I call the "Big 3 D" of Owen Power, Brandt Clarke and Luke Hughes.
Though you will likely need to win a top 2 lottery slot to get Power, both Clarke and Hughes are likely targets in the #3 to #5 range. If the Devils were to fall out of this range, there would be a very strong chance of a 2020 draft re-run -- when Ds Jake Sanderson and Jamie Drysdale went #5 & #6, and then the Devils picked #7. Though the reasoning in drafting Alexander Holtz #7 was sound, I don't think there is any doubt the Devils would have preferred Sanderson or Drysdale.
In my own rankings, I currently have Clarke at #2 (matching the highest ranking of him anywhere), Power at #3 (a slightly low ranking, as Power is generally in the top 2) and Hughes at #6. The TSN/McKenzie rankings -- generally considered the most accurate in terms of how things play out on draft day -- have Power at #1, Hughes #5 and Clarke #6. But most would agree that a very strong U-18 tournament by Clarke -- he was the runaway best defender in the tourney -- will lift him up in the general consensus.
So, in all likelihood, you're going to need a top 5 pick for one of the Big 3 D. Though we must remind ourselves that there is a chance that Power, Clarke and Hughes all go in the top 4, it should give us a bit of confidence to also remind ourselves that Beniers is pretty much a lock for the top 3, and expansion teams (Seattle) statistically start their franchises with Fs (especially C) far more often than D. Buffalo also seemingly has more of a need at F than D.
So, I'm optimistic right now. I think we all have cause to be.
This is amazing news. We have all spoken at length about the Devils need for a top-pairing defenseman, and the the 2021 class has likely three of them, what I call the "Big 3 D" of Owen Power, Brandt Clarke and Luke Hughes.
Though you will likely need to win a top 2 lottery slot to get Power, both Clarke and Hughes are likely targets in the #3 to #5 range. If the Devils were to fall out of this range, there would be a very strong chance of a 2020 draft re-run -- when Ds Jake Sanderson and Jamie Drysdale went #5 & #6, and then the Devils picked #7. Though the reasoning in drafting Alexander Holtz #7 was sound, I don't think there is any doubt the Devils would have preferred Sanderson or Drysdale.
In my own rankings, I currently have Clarke at #2 (matching the highest ranking of him anywhere), Power at #3 (a slightly low ranking, as Power is generally in the top 2) and Hughes at #6. The TSN/McKenzie rankings -- generally considered the most accurate in terms of how things play out on draft day -- have Power at #1, Hughes #5 and Clarke #6. But most would agree that a very strong U-18 tournament by Clarke -- he was the runaway best defender in the tourney -- will lift him up in the general consensus.
So, in all likelihood, you're going to need a top 5 pick for one of the Big 3 D. Though we must remind ourselves that there is a chance that Power, Clarke and Hughes all go in the top 4, it should give us a bit of confidence to also remind ourselves that Beniers is pretty much a lock for the top 3, and expansion teams (Seattle) statistically start their franchises with Fs (especially C) far more often than D. Buffalo also seemingly has more of a need at F than D.
So, I'm optimistic right now. I think we all have cause to be.
Does anyone know the odds of Buffalo/Anaheim/Seattle winning lotto balls and no teams jumping up? I would figure the most likely scenario is one of these teams wins one and a random team from the field.
Captain3rdLine
Registered User
- Sep 24, 2020
- 6,765
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They’re easy to look up. The most likely scenario is one team ahead of us and one team behind us winning so we fall down one spot.
MartyOwns
thank you shero
- Apr 1, 2007
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just run Tankathon | 2021 NHL Draft Order & Lottery Simulator 10 times, take the average slot we get, and that's probably what we'll be at. i just did it and got an avg of 4.8...so i'm guessing we'll pick at 5. although those numbers will change (and hopefully get better, if possible) if we drop the finale.
Assuming Vancouver passes us and one random team wins a lottery ball, if we are at 5, would you guys surrender a second round pick to move up a spot or two? I’m concerned about the big three D going in the first four picks. No way I’m parting with that Islanders pick. Ironically, I’m almost always a proponent of BPA or trading back to accrue more assets...not trading up.
- Dec 20, 2018
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It’s up to Vancouver, they have seven games left and are two points behind us. (We win the regulation wins tie-breaker.) I’m pretty optimistic about them getting points, that division is pretty bad. The Oilers needed McDavid to have a four point night to pull off a 4-3 win over them.
Winning both our last games would have been a trouble tank-wise but I have no problem rooting for a win on Monday against the Flyers. The Columbus-Detroit game had a dream ending that killed off all the terrible alternative draft order scenarios. LGD.
To me, I'm hoping the Devils pick at 2 or 4, but I'm fine at 5. I don't want the #1 slot, simply because the Devils had it twice in the past half-decade and at some point I just feel it unfair, and there's not really a clear-cut #1 this year anyway. Give another fan base a chance to be celebratory. I feel at 2 or 4 the Devils have a 100% chance at one of the big 3 D of Clarke/Hughes/Power, and at #5 it is still a solid 75%. At #6 or lower, it gets scary. My worst case scenario involves the Devils missing out on all Big 3 D by one pick and reaching at #6 for a big, fast project D Ceulemans or Edvinsson, neither of whom have played at a high enough level to establish themselves as clear-cut top 15 prospects in the draft.
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