Player Discussion: Steven Stamkos - Part 9: 500 Goals & 1,100 Points and counting Edition

[The Gongshow]

So you want to pay an inflated market price for 1 or 2 replacement forwards, but you only want to pay Stamkos a discounted price?

I'm one of the few here that actually want Stammer to retire a Bolt, but understand we can't realistically give him 8 +

I'm saying if he isn't re-signed JBB better be using that money to pay someone who is an actual top 6 forward (perhaps younger) to come and slot in. I dont want bottom 6 depth pieces, I want Atammer or a top 6 forward considering wlhow many we've lost the last few years. Specially with Duclair being a FA as well. We'd be down 2 top 6 forwards, again.

 

[Flat Ronnie]

I'm one of the few here that actually want Stammer to retire a Bolt, but understand we can't realistically give him 8 +

I'm saying if he isn't re-signed JBB better be using that money to pay someone who is an actual top 6 forward (perhaps younger) to come and slot in. I dont want bottom 6 depth pieces, I want Atammer or a top 6 forward considering wlhow many we've lost the last few years. Specially with Duclair being a FA as well. We'd be down 2 top 6 forwards, again.

There's not many people that want Stamkos to stay?

 

[LightningStrikes]

There's not many people that want Stamkos to stay?

I think the majority wants him to stay and retire a Bolt. The thing is we’ve learned the hard way that it might not be possible and/or reasonable in a salary cap world (see Vinny, McDonagh, Palat or Killer to name a few).

Personally, I hope they find a way to keep Stamkos and at the same time manage to ice a competitive team and not waste the primes of our (younger) core of Kuch, Point and Vas. Management will (have to) prioritize the latter and that’s the likely only reason why an extension couldn’t be worked out (yet).

 

[RussianGuyovich]

everyone (i think) is hoping stamkos will take less, a lot less, than FMV but what this thread presupposes is: what if he wont?

 

[Flat Ronnie]

everyone (i think) is hoping stamkos will take less, a lot less, than FMV but what this thread presupposes is: what if he wont?

How much less is justified for 40G and PPG?

 

[RussianGuyovich]

How much less is justified for 40G and PPG?

i dont really have a figure, but FMV will price him out of our budget easily. the amount of compromise stamkos is willing to bend is his decision alone, and i wouldn't fault him for stacking that paper.

 

[Flat Ronnie]

i dont really have a figure, but FMV will price him out of our budget easily. the amount of compromise stamkos is willing to bend is his decision alone, and i wouldn't fault him for stacking that paper.

How much are we going to spend to replace his production?

 

[RussianGuyovich]

How much are we going to spend to replace his production?

you dont. you cant. letting stamkos walk is a future decision, not a present one to make the team better. we're objectively worse without him next season.

 

[Flat Ronnie]

you dont. you cant. letting stamkos walk is a future decision, not a present one to make the team better. we're objectively worse without him next season.

Ok, then letting him walk is sounding even worse. It's not like we have THAT LONG of a realistic cup window. The next 1-3 years are critical. He's prob not going to sign that long, and if he did, the end of his contract will probably be bought out.

 

[LTIR Trickery]

I mean without really getting into the grit of the money/length of Stamkos, he has basically been a 65+ point player almost every year of his career including 106 and 84 points his last two full seasons. Thats a lot of production to replace on a team that is barely above the mason dixon in goal differential (early season goaltending aside) and required Kucherov to factor in on half of the teams goals this year. Getting rid of him (barring a few ridiculous situations like Stamkos on a 3x33m contract or something equally unrealistic) would likely be incredibly stupid and downright harmful. There isn't a guy in the lineup that Stamkos is pushing down and preventing from taking a bigger role, and there isn't anyone near him in filling the shoes of a "specialist" as many have called him around here. He takes fantastic care of himself and if I had to gamble on anyone on this roster maintaining his physical ability, it would be him. Even if he became a 25-25 player and got 10-15 of those on the man advantage, that is still one hell of a weapon to have at your disposal.

 

[DFC]

How much less is justified for 40G and PPG?

It's not really about what's justified. It's about what the team actually has to spend. We can't just give Stamkos 10 and then not ice a defense.

 

[Flat Ronnie]

I mean without really getting into the grit of the money/length of Stamkos, he has basically been a 65+ point player almost every year of his career including 106 and 84 points his last two full seasons. Thats a lot of production to replace on a team that is barely above the mason dixon in goal differential (early season goaltending aside) and required Kucherov to factor in on half of the teams goals this year. Getting rid of him (barring a few ridiculous situations like Stamkos on a 3x33m contract or something equally unrealistic) would likely be incredibly stupid and downright harmful. There isn't a guy in the lineup that Stamkos is pushing down and preventing from taking a bigger role, and there isn't anyone near him in filling the shoes of a "specialist" as many have called him around here. He takes fantastic care of himself and if I had to gamble on anyone on this roster maintaining his physical ability, it would be him. Even if he became a 25-25 player and got 10-15 of those on the man advantage, that is still one hell of a weapon to have at your disposal.

This. Well said.

 

[RussianGuyovich]

Ok, then letting him walk is sounding even worse. It's not like we have THAT LONG of a realistic cup window. The next 1-3 years are critical. He's prob not going to sign that long, and if he did, the end of his contract will probably be bought out.

yeah, i mean, we might not have a choice

 

[The Gongshow]

I mean without really getting into the grit of the money/length of Stamkos, he has basically been a 65+ point player almost every year of his career including 106 and 84 points his last two full seasons. Thats a lot of production to replace on a team that is barely above the mason dixon in goal differential (early season goaltending aside) and required Kucherov to factor in on half of the teams goals this year. Getting rid of him (barring a few ridiculous situations like Stamkos on a 3x33m contract or something equally unrealistic) would likely be incredibly stupid and downright harmful. There isn't a guy in the lineup that Stamkos is pushing down and preventing from taking a bigger role, and there isn't anyone near him in filling the shoes of a "specialist" as many have called him around here. He takes fantastic care of himself and if I had to gamble on anyone on this roster maintaining his physical ability, it would be him. Even if he became a 25-25 player and got 10-15 of those on the man advantage, that is still one hell of a weapon to have at your disposal.

Well said.

And even people claiming "he's only good on the PP" well, we've had one of the best PP's in the league for several years, thanks in part to both Kuch and Stamkos taking a side each. You get rid of one and then they just cheat to the other and take them out. We don't have anyone to replace him on the left dot with elite level shooting. Our PP takes a big dip if he leaves because then they just take away Kuch to Point.

So even the PP boost he brings to the team, let alone his PPG average, is a huge blow

 

[Sky04]

How much are we going to spend to replace his production?

It's called a salary cap, you're not going to replace things 1:1 hence why they're priced out in the first place..

 

[JTBF81]

It will come down to how much flexibility Stamkos will have, but there are several ways that JBB can make Tampa's offer more competitive.

The team as it sits, has 11.715 available(provided a cap of 87 7 next year) with 9F, 6D, and 2G signed. If JBB wants to keep Stamkos, Duclair, and upgrade somewhat on defense, it's difficult, but not impossible. First, Sheary has to be moved asap, which increases available cap to 13.715 with now 6 spots needed. Secondly, Perbix needs to be moved for whatever positive value, if any, that JBB can get. This increases cap space to 14.84. Finally, JBB needs to take the L and move on from Jeannot. Yes, he brings physicality, but for an oft injured, no offense at all 3rd/4th line type, the space needs to be used more effectively imo. This brings the available cap space to 17.505 with now 8 spots to fill to reach a 22 player roster.

Elevating Crozier/re-signing Fleury(or another another min level #7 dman), Motte, Chaffee, and 2 additional 4th line/13th F types should leave the team with between 13 and 13.5 million left for Stamkos, Duclair, and a dman upgrade. This allows JBB to offer Stamkos in the 6.5-7 range perhaps, Duclair in the high 3's to maybe a ceiling of 4, and a dman in the ~3 range or a little more. There us some flexibility available with these numbers, and it gives the team a good shot at addressing 3 big spots in Stamkos, additional top F and a blueline upgrade over Perbix.

Of course, if they want to leave the defense basically the same aside from Serg returning, they can keep Perbix and still have 2-2.5 million available(after the other lower cost signings) to use towards the higher end re-signings or a boost in the bottom 6 or blueline. So ultimately, moving on from Sheary, Perbix, and Jeannot gives them the best shot at getting what they probably want, while only moving on from Sheary and TJ is also a viable plan. Only moving on from Sheary while keeping Perbix and Jeannot leaves the team just over 10(after filling in the lesser role spots) to sign Stamkos and Duclair. While not impossible, there is much less wiggle room in negotiations, and there is no room for any meaningful add to the blueline.

 

[CupsOverCash]

If I was stammer keep giving me feeds from kuch. Pad those stats! He's already got a lot of money.

 

[bigdaddio]

I guess giving him a small minority ownership or a handshake deal to be vp in charge of whatever the heck he wants after this contract is not allowed.

 

[OffBy1]

We're going to lose Stamkos's 30-40 goal production in the next couple years due to father time and some team will still be paying him as a 40 goal scorer for years afterward. Our cap situation is already bad without having something like that.

Someone mentioned we need to keep his offense because our goal differential is not good. That's true, but we also have the 4th best offense, so we obviously need to improve on defense. Stamkos is part of the problem there, with his team worst -20 in 75 games. He's been the team worst for at least half the season. Yes, our powerplay would be worse without Stamkos, but if there was a two-way 20+ goal scoring winger we could replace him with, they'd be cheaper, younger, not impact the goal differential and the team wouldn't be as power play dependent.

The strongest argument for keeping Stamkos is there may not be a winger of that type available in free agency. But if our only option to keep Stamkos is pay him more than Hagel for 4 or more years, I'm definitely in the let him walk camp, keep Duclair and sign someone like Sean Monahan or Tyler Toffoli if we can get them on a better contract than what we'd give Stamkos - i.e. not still be paying them when they're 37-38.

As a reference point, Ovechkin who's paid 9.5 per for two more seasons after this one, was sitting at 9 goals through January of this year - the first 4 months of the season. I wonder how much love there'd still be for Stamkos if we're paying him 7+ a year and his season goes that next year. Ovechkin is now up to 30 goals, but also at a team worst -21. His teams gets to look forward to two more years of that at 9.5 mil per.

 

[OffBy1]

Elevating Crozier/re-signing Fleury(or another another min level #7 dman), Motte, Chaffee, and 2 additional 4th line/13th F types should leave the team with between 13 and 13.5 million left for Stamkos, Duclair, and a dman upgrade. This allows JBB to offer Stamkos in the 6.5-7 range perhaps, Duclair in the high 3's to maybe a ceiling of 4, and a dman in the ~3 range or a little more. There us some flexibility available with these numbers, and it gives the team a good shot at addressing 3 big spots in Stamkos, additional top F and a blueline upgrade over Perbix.

The defense gets a boost next year with Serge coming back healthy and hopefully being motivated to have a bounce back season. Hedman, Cernak, Serge and Raddysh is pretty good top 4, and if Lilleberg stays at the same level he's shown since his second callup, that'd leave only Perbix as questionable. If he doesn't have a bounce back year then we move or send him down, bring Crozier up and he and Fleury make up the 6th and 7th. Then the available money could go to the forwards. In addition to Stammer not cutting it at 5v5, the bottom six could use an improvement as well.

I'd shoot for keeping Duclair (4m-5m), getting a younger (29-31sh) more two-way Stamkos FA replacement for less than what he'd require (5m-6m - Teuvo Teräväinen?), and also upgrade the third line (2m-3m) as we are currently getting by with Paul-Eyssimont-Chaffee but I think at least one of Eyssimont or Chaffee should really be on the 4th.

 

[JoVel]

I guess giving him a small minority ownership or a handshake deal to be vp in charge of whatever the heck he wants after this contract is not allowed.

Maybe not but we should do it anyway.

 

[JTBF81]

The defense gets a boost next year with Serge coming back healthy and hopefully being motivated to have a bounce back season. Hedman, Cernak, Serge and Raddysh is pretty good top 4, and if Lilleberg stays at the same level he's shown since his second callup, that'd leave only Perbix as questionable. If he doesn't have a bounce back year then we move or send him down, bring Crozier up and he and Fleury make up the 6th and 7th. Then the available money could go to the forwards. In addition to Stammer not cutting it at 5v5, the bottom six could use an improvement as well.

I'd shoot for keeping Duclair (4m-5m), getting a younger (29-31sh) more two-way Stamkos FA replacement for less than what he'd require (5m-6m - Teuvo Teräväinen?), and also upgrade the third line (2m-3m) as we are currently getting by with Paul-Eyssimont-Chaffee but I think at least one of Eyssimont or Chaffee should really be on the 4th.

For 1 or so million cheaper(possibly) none of Teravainen, Monahan nor Toffoli are replacing what Stamkos brings. While Stamkos has had a rougher year 5v5 and with +/-, that particular stat is much more than just on one player. The team also doesn't have the top powerplay not a top 5 offense without him. If Stamkos wants much more than the ~6.5 range, then sure, JBB might not have a choice in order to keep or upgrade in other areas, but I don't see him losing Stamkos over 500k-1 million aav in favor of any of the guys that may be available in that same range in ufa.

The defense does get a boost with Serg back, but I don't want to rely on Perbix figuring it out again next season. If there's an upgrade in the 2.5-3 million range via ufa, so be it, but I'd rather see them add someone on the blueline than go into next year facing the idea that with one injury, someone luke Fleury/Crozier/Perbix on e again will have to play significant minutes above their level.

If they don't want to address the blueline though with the additional ~2.5 in this scenario, then sure, another bottom 6 value F add could be reasonable. If Stamkos and Duclair are set in the top 6, they could improve with a 3rd/4th line type player. As long as the current 3rd line is working well though, there doesn't seem like a need to add much there. Tampa also has a few candidates frpm Syracuse and such that will likely be fighting for a roster spot next year as well potentially, so spending on a ufa F may not be as high of a priority as doing so for a #4/5 type dman.

 

[Felonious Python]

 

[OffBy1]

For 1 or so million cheaper(possibly) none of Teravainen, Monahan nor Toffoli are replacing what Stamkos brings. While Stamkos has had a rougher year 5v5 and with +/-, that particular stat is much more than just on one player. The team also doesn't have the top powerplay not a top 5 offense without him. If Stamkos wants much more than the ~6.5 range, then sure, JBB might not have a choice in order to keep or upgrade in other areas, but I don't see him losing Stamkos over 500k-1 million aav in favor of any of the guys that may be available in that same range in ufa.

As you said, a lot depends on how much Stamkos wants and for how long. The FA replacements I would look for would be in the under 30, 31 - 32 age at the oldest - so even if they are only 1 million cheaper than Stamkos, as long as the FA contract doesn't take them past age 34-35, they're more likely to live up to it for it's entire length given they are younger. Stamkos will turn 35 next Feb.

I'm not in love with any of the FA forward options, but also not in love with someone more than Hagel who's going to be noticably worse at age 36, 37. If the rest of the core was still in its prime, then it wouldn't be as bad, but Hedman and Vasy look like they have started the downside of their careers as well.

What is the best realistic case Stamkos settles for? Malkin resigned for 4 years at 6.1 when he was days away from 36. If Stamkos resigned for 6.5 for 2 years, I'd take it. But I imagine he's going to want 3 years or more. It's going to be a touch choice for both Stamkos and JBB.

 

[Sky04]

2 year at a time contracts would work best for both sides if he wants to remain here, Stamkos can still get money in the short term and JBB won't have to take the risk of an aging player with a large caphit. Something like 6-7Mx2 and then just goes down until he decides to retire.