Stepping back and looking at the way forward...

[DarkandStormy]

This fan base will dwindle yet again if it takes a couple years to be a contender. Good GM's can turn teams around quickly, waiting on kids to become core producers takes way too long and most GM's dont get to stick around to see their success because of the losing.

Attendance may plummet with no ASG tie-in for STH's.

 

[blahblah]

Hi Everybody. To start out I would just like to let everyone know that I'm just trying to focus a discussion that has seemed to come up in every thread this year. Obviously this hasn't been the season we hoped for after last year, but I think that we have lost focus on the real problems with the team. To me those problems boil down to two things injuries and previous drafting.

The injuries are obvious to anyone with a passing interest in the team. This is the most injuries to key players that I have ever seen, without belaboring the point here are key players that have missed significant time this year: Bobrovsky, Anisimov, Murray, Dubinsky, Horton, Tyutin, etc.

The bigger part of the equation to me is something that is overlooked by alot of us due to various reasons; the poor drafting and roster construction prior to 2011 (excluding Johansen). Prior to the change in draft strategy and entering rebuild mode in 2011 We whiffed on multiple years worth of drafting, which was further exacerbated by the Carter trade where we lost our one great pick in Vorachek (who wasn't even close to what he developed into) and a high 1st. Our lack of capable drafting led to a whole host of issues with the team that we are still overcoming to this day. I feel like none of this can really be laid at the feet of the current front office. Have they made mistakes, absolutely; namely the Gaborik trades. Additionally they made the call that keeping available cap room was more important than keeping some of our better depth players. (That decision though was only exposed, due to the massive slate of injuries we suffered as well as the bust of Brian Gibbons which no one saw coming after his playoffs last year).

I think that we need to pull back and recognize that the years of ineptitude at the draft put us in such a significant hole that without a number of years there is no realistic way to completely overhaul team talent and depth. JD and Jarmo have taken alot of flak for their brick by brick stuff but justifiably need time to bring draft classes through the development cycle in order to fill the roster out with a better level of talent. I think the fact that our rebuild has been put on fast forward (due the emergence of Bob and Johansen and the Nash trade) has blinded people to the fact that we continue to have a lot of systemic roster issues. Just a few years ago we were legitimately the worst team in the NHL and while the roster has changed over the last three years we have not had the time or the assets to correct significant issues with the team, namely IMO the defense and scoring depth.

Personally, I think the best way forward is to stay the course and build through the draft. I think at the end of the day this season is an anomaly that exposed systemic issues that are in the process of being corrected. However, according to some of the posters there are bigger issues with the front office and the coaching staff that need to be fixed.

What do you guys think the way forward is?

Your timeline is off as others pointed out. What is this supposed to be; an excuse thread? We made the playoffs last year; we're not playing anywhere near that level. Obviously we are capable of more.

Not sure what you are trying to accomplish with this thread. Your thesis doesn't support your question. Your "solution" is just a common sense cliche.

There really isn't going to be any original thought in here. Not because we're dumb; but because the ways to improve your team are pretty well know.

1. Draft well.
2. Improve the leadership group.
3. Move players that don't fit your team philosophy and replace with players that do.
4. Build from the net out and them up the middle. Wingers are the easiest to get and you shouldn't spend a lot of money or assets on them.
5. It's helpful to have a couple of stars that fit your team philosophy.

Is Johansen one of them with bullet point #5? Nash really wasn't. Johansen's hold out wasn't a very good sign. No questioning his talent, however. He's looking more and more like a 40 goal scorer.

With the thought on #4. Should we have spent that much money on Foligno. I know he fits in with the team pretty well and seems to be a fine leader; but we paid high and at a huge premium. If he turns out to be a 15-20 goal scorer, in the future - we got screwed big time. I find that to be a realistic outcome. At least Dubinsky is a center.

If things don't improve soon; I think we're going to need to look at someone else in the HC area. We look like we might need a fresh perspective on our 5 on 5 play and how to increase our scoring and improve our defensive zone play. It also looks like we're going to need to make an adjustment on the back end. Hopefully Murray solves some of it; but this JJ/Savard pairing has to end. As long as that pairing exists playing 23 minutes a night.... The losing and poor 5 on 5 play is going to continue. Richards made a big mistake by not playing Leopold more. Not saying he's awesome or anything; but he's a steady veteran and I think he contributed to our December is a positive way.

As long as Bob continues to get injured and go into extended slumps; we're going to struggle. Especially when Richards continues to want to overuse him. I know we work into holes; but it's obvious desperation in Richards part.

Oh and my last thought. I will forever have an axe to grind with Howson for not picking up Colin Wilson.

 

[CoachWithNoTeam]

I could not be more excited for our forward prospects, and we have a solid veteran core, and a top end goalie.

Prospects: Wennberg, Rychel, Dano, Bjorkstrand, Milano, Anderson, Forsberg... Reilly, Heatherington, Collins ... Chaput, Tynan, Madaisky
Young Core: Jenner, Johansen, Murray, Savard, Connauton, Bobrovsky
Old Core: Foligno, Dubinsky, Anisimov, Hartnell, Johnson, Letestu

other: Tyutin, Wisniewski, Prout, Goloubef, Atkinson, Calvert, Morin, Boll, Tropp, Skille, Gibbons

I think the "other" category are players in roles that we could improve on - however, I do think there is hope, in that a lot of those prospects could step in right away at similar roles - Specifically Dano, Rychel, Anderson, Wennberg in for Calvert, Atkinson, Tropp, Boll...

I like Tyutin a lot too. For someone who has been here so long he is sort of the forgotten, underappreciated man. I don't think he is a bad player or even a bad second pair option. I just don't see him as someone that will be here until he retires, or even for the next few years.

Wisniewski, whom I put in the 'other' category, I think has been much better this year. I can't think of as many times this year where his poor footspeed has caught him chasing the play.

Keep drafting. Stay the course. Need to pick up and develop a couple more stud defensemen. Get healthy. It has really been absurd, not only the number of injuries, but the significance of them. We finally play our first game with our top 4 centers and we are missing Jenner (probably top LW), Horton (probably top RW), and Murray (IMO, our top D, or was trending that direction before injury), and Bobrovsky (top goalie).

Foligno - Johansen - XXX
Hartnell - Dubinsky - Jenner
Wennberg/Anisimov - XXX
XXX - Letestu - XXX

Spare: Calvert, Atkinson, Morin, (Rychel, Dano, Anderson), Boll, Tropp

Johnson - XXX
Murray - Savard
Connauton - XXX
Prout

Spare: Tyutin, Wisniewski, (Reilly, Heatherington)

Until we have upgrades, it will be hard to fill in some of those X's. Tyutin and Wiz will do for the time being on D - and I really don't think that has been the problem. I would also be fine with Calvert sticking around for primarily 4th line, some 3rd line time - same with Morin. Get that top line winger, and reconfigure the bottom 6 - and I don't think we are far off.

Frankly, I am downright excited with how good Rychel, Dano, and Anderson looked in spot duty up here - and Bjorkstrand has been so damn impressive - that I can't remember ever having so many gifted prospects on the cusp. As far as I know we are one of the lowest spending teams in the league, and could add some payroll if necessary, and we probably should, to beef up our top end forward skill.

I think we have 5 good top-6 forwards, plus Wennberg and Anisimov, who are great third liners at this point. I think Wennberg is turning in one of the better rookie seasons we've seen from a CBJ player in a while, 6 points or whatever, he has looked great lately.

 

[EspenK]

With the thought on #4. Should we have spent that much money on Foligno. I know he fits in with the team pretty well and seems to be a fine leader; but we paid high and at a huge premium. If he turns out to be a 15-20 goal scorer, in the future - we got screwed big time. I find that to be a realistic outcome. At least Dubinsky is a center.

If things don't improve soon; I think we're going to need to look at someone else in the HC area. We look like we might need a fresh perspective on our 5 on 5 play and how to increase our scoring and improve our defensive zone play.

As long as Bob continues to get injured and go into extended slumps; we're going to struggle. Especially when Richards continues to want to overuse him. I know we work into holes; but it's obvious desperation in Richards part.

Oh and my last thought. I will forever have an axe to grind with Howson for not picking up Colin Wilson.

I think these points are pretty much on target. Except for the last- I mean how could anyone have passed on Filatov?

The one who got away in that draft was Erik Karlson (who Mayor will point out was skipped by others also). Not that we should have drafted him based on rankings it just that it would have been nice to have blind squirreled him

 

[WannabeFinn]

why would you want Colin Wilson so badly?

 

[EspenK]

why would you want Colin Wilson so badly?

dunno Blah's reasons but he's playing at a 57 pt pace this year. Seems like a pretty good reason to like him.

The other thing that occurs to me is that he is flourishing under Laviolette's coaching philosophy. Not sure he'd flourish like that in Richards' system.

 

[WannabeFinn]

Well I mean, when Tyler Myers/Boedker/Karlsson/Eberle/Carlson were all picked after Filly in the 1st round why pick Wilson over all those guys?

 

[Samkow]

Well I mean, when Tyler Myers/Boedker/Karlsson/Eberle/Carlson were all picked after Filly in the 1st round why pick Wilson over all those guys?

Well, for some Carlson/Eberle/Karlsson, that'd be extreme revisionist history. They weren't even going in the top half of the first round in most mock drafts.

 

[WannabeFinn]

Well, for some Carlson/Eberle/Karlsson, that'd be extreme revisionist history. They weren't even going in the top half of the first round in most mock drafts.

That's fair enough. I still think if we'd ended up taking Colin Wilson there would've been much bemoaning of him only being a ~35 point player for such a long time.

 

[db2011]

when healthy, as major pointed out, the bottom 6 is strong. I believe it's inaccurate to say this season exposed a lack of depth. No team is so deep as to be able withstand groinageddon. Gibbons, Skille, Tropp- these guys could very well be good depth guys, but they were forced into roles that depth doesn't describe.
The way forward is to stay the course, we have a lot to be excited about in terms of potential. Can't disagree on the top 6 W, though. We needed that before Horton, and we still do.

 

[major major]

This fan base will dwindle yet again if it takes a couple years to be a contender. Good GM's can turn teams around quickly, waiting on kids to become core producers takes way too long and most GM's dont get to stick around to see their success because of the losing.

Any success that this team has had have all been from Howson players, save Hartnell and maybe Connauton, JK really has no stamp on the team other then guys like Skille, Tropp, Gibbons, all who have been busts and the hope of future. He tried with Horton, but obviously missed big by signing him to 7 years. JK really has not shown much on the professional evaluation side of things, maybe he's a great amateur scout guy, but the verdict is still out because theyre still unproven. Maybe Wennberg will become a great player, but im not overly thrilled with our top prospect only being able to muster 6 points in 38 games which puts him tied at 38 among rookies....not what you really want to see from the teams top prospect unless he's suppose to be the second coming of Sammy Paulsson

? I'm having a hard time figuring out what you're talking about. All the examples of turnarounds I can think of are based off of either 1) maturing youth (TB, NYI, etc etc...) or 2) are mediocre/marginal turnarounds (DAL, NJ). Maybe Steve Yzerman acquired enough good players that the Lightning would have turned it around without the emergence of Stamkos and Hedman, but that's a hypothetical.

 

[major major]

I will forever have an axe to grind with Howson for not picking up Colin Wilson.

Funny. We could have acquired Wilson for much less than a 7th pick just one year ago. The Preds would have been happy to get something for him.

 

[EspenK]

? I'm having a hard time figuring out what you're talking about. All the examples of turnarounds I can think of are based off of either 1) maturing youth (TB, NYI, etc etc...) or 2) are mediocre/marginal turnarounds (DAL, NJ). Maybe Steve Yzerman acquired enough good players that the Lightning would have turned it around without the emergence of Stamkos and Hedman, but that's a hypothetical.

As to the maturing youth what about the addition of Halak, Kulemin, Grabovski, Leddy and Boychuk helping the Isles turn around?

And TB's acquisition of Bishop, Burke, Stalman and Callahan sure hasn't hurt the effort.

I don't believe "good" GM"s can engineer a quick and lasting turnaround by just one tactic. It take some maturation of youth, adding through the draft, and adding through free agency and trades.

 

[BluejacketNut]

? I'm having a hard time figuring out what you're talking about. All the examples of turnarounds I can think of are based off of either 1) maturing youth (TB, NYI, etc etc...) or 2) are mediocre/marginal turnarounds (DAL, NJ). Maybe Steve Yzerman acquired enough good players that the Lightning would have turned it around without the emergence of Stamkos and Hedman, but that's a hypothetical.

Meant more that good GM's are capable of making good moves to improve teams. Pour phrasing. When people talk about wanting to make trades to improve the team, many times are met with the "mortgaging the future" comments, as if its impossible to make improving moves that help the team. Either that or Lombardi is a god with supreme Jedi mind tricks

 

[major major]

As to the maturing youth what about the addition of Halak, Kulemin, Grabovski, Leddy and Boychuk helping the Isles turn around?

And TB's acquisition of Bishop, Burke, Stalman and Callahan sure hasn't hurt the effort.

I don't believe "good" GM"s can engineer a quick and lasting turnaround by just one tactic. It take some maturation of youth, adding through the draft, and adding through free agency and trades.

Agreed.

Now all we have to do is get young players to emerge on the level of Brock Nelson and Ryan Strome, and then make absolute steals like Snow did with Leddy and Boychuk. Recipe for success? Yes. Easy to do? No.

 

[Tulipunaruusu*]

As to the maturing youth what about the addition of Halak, Kulemin, Grabovski, Leddy and Boychuk helping the Isles turn around?

And TB's acquisition of Bishop, Burke, Stalman and Callahan sure hasn't hurt the effort.

Add Filppula into that UFA mix too for Tampa.

It's important still to remember that New York and Sunshine State are far more easier locations when it comes to attracting UFA veterans than Columbus. No matter how good the zoo is, you still gotta offer security for a gamble like in for example Horton's case to beat other potential suitors for his signature.

Keeping that in mind finishing in the bottom five likely won't help the Stanley Cup chasing free agent cause either although I still believe that this team at some point starts to gather more victories than losses from the remaining games. Umbergers won't be swapped to Hartnells...

It ain't the end of the world to draft the tenth most wanted youngster in the world.

 

[ca5150]

Cody Goloubef. 2nd 2008.
Matt Calvert. 5th 2008.
Cam Atkinson. 6th 2008.
David Savard. 4th 2009.
Dalton Prout. 6th 2010.

"Poor drafting".


Seriously, this was an excellent argument to make EIGHT YEARS AGO.

Just because they are on the roster doesn't make them excellent picks. Goloubef and Prout can't crack the lineup of one of the worst 6 man units in the league and at least one will be headed elsewhere after the season. Atkinson is average at best and is the most likely forward to be shipped somewhere in a trade. Savard is ok and I love Matty Calvert. But that is far from Detroit Red Wings-esk drafting

 

[ca5150]

Attendance may plummet with no ASG tie-in for STH's.

Honestly, I will probably downgrade my package next year, it makes no financial sense to pay for season tickets when you can pick up plenty of games for under face value. I venture to say outside of opening night, Chi and Pitt, EVERY game could have been had for under face value this year.

 

[DarkandStormy]

Honestly, I will probably downgrade my package next year, it makes no financial sense to pay for season tickets when you can pick up plenty of games for under face value. I venture to say outside of opening night, Chi and Pitt, EVERY game could have been had for under face value this year.

Yeah, I agree. Plus if another year like this happens, you can save money on the last couple months if you don't want to go to crap games.

Only thing is you lose your priority on playoff tickets, but you can always check out StubHub if the team makes it that far.

 

[KeithBWhittington]

If anything, we probably have glut of guys that could be playing nightly but aren't. Drafting, on the whole, hasn't been poor since under MacLean. Whether Howson or Jarmo jettisoned players "too soon" is debatable. Problem appears to be that while our depth players are a luxury, they don't seem to be enough of a luxury outside Nationwide Arena. Certain things, like a lack of a captain, continue to be overblown by the local media. This team is fine without a captain, it allows leadership to foster all over the room without the weight of one voice becoming too loud right now.

On to issues that to me, seem a bit more complex.

The scary proposition that these large extensions create. It may be a necessary evil, and it certain helps in the PR standpoint for other players that may potentially come to Columbus to play someday, but it's worrisome for me when I see Dubinsky, who, for all intents and purposes last year was all but screaming to be a solid foundation piece with his play last season and how he has looked since being back from IR.
Spots of disinterest, stupid penalties at extremely inoppurtune times, questions surrounding "Maintenance Days".

injury fears beyond the usual. Will we ever see exactly what Ryan Murray can become because of the injury-prone question, one that now, I think, is fair to have real discussions about. A player that was deemed so valuable that a team offered their entire draft (albeit who you talk to, everything after the top few is a crapshoot, certain organization succeed and build franchises on the backs of players drafted later) to the Jackets for the right to select him?

What appears to be a dangerous lack of skill up front in the organization after the top two lines that's excerbated when this team isn't forechecking hard, creating turnovers, physically out working an opponent?. Is this just the glut of "glue/heart and soul-type guys" that Howson drafted now coming to forefront? Or is it something more that the drafting of Sonny Milano is the start of?

The sky is hardly falling, but it's fair to ask some of these questions. Maybe once everyone is fully healthy, these questions will be answered or sorted out.

 

[blahblah]

why would you want Colin Wilson so badly?

Context of the draft board at the time. Holy cow, how hard is this? Reading all your posts, you really seem to want to make this much harder than it needs to be.

I called for Wilson at the time and he's a pretty good player. As far as your bemoaning comment, that's hardly something to get concerned about. It's not even a consideration. It's just bemoaning on your part.

 

[ca5150]

Yeah, I agree. Plus if another year like this happens, you can save money on the last couple months if you don't want to go to crap games.

Only thing is you lose your priority on playoff tickets, but you can always check out StubHub if the team makes it that far.

My problem is I did a half season this year, I'm die hard but it's even hard for me to get up for a Tuesday game against Phoenix...or going 41 times. I would do another half season if they let me pick exactly the 21 games I want, but they don't, they make me take 2 pre-season games that I wouldn't even go to, and then they slot the games and make you pick several from each pool. So I end up buying another 5 games or so just so I can get all the weekend and big games. If I'm willing to drop $8000 for a half season for 3 tickets, I think I should be able to pick any games I want. But this is a conversation I've had with my ticket rep and it's a waste of breath....

I'm still holding out hope for a run, I see all the games in hand still and can't give up yet...I'm a glutten for punishment

 

[JKinCLE]

My problem is I did a half season this year, I'm die hard but it's even hard for me to get up for a Tuesday game against Phoenix...or going 41 times. I would do another half season if they let me pick exactly the 21 games I want, but they don't, they make me take 2 pre-season games that I wouldn't even go to, and then they slot the games and make you pick several from each pool. So I end up buying another 5 games or so just so I can get all the weekend and big games. If I'm willing to drop $8000 for a half season for 3 tickets, I think I should be able to pick any games I want. But this is a conversation I've had with my ticket rep and it's a waste of breath....

I'm still holding out hope for a run, I see all the games in hand still and can't give up yet...I'm a glutten for punishment

I'm with you on that. I work crap hours, so there is no way for me to purchase a quarter plan without having to take at least 5 days off work to go to the required weekday games. Selling them is out of the question since I would be lucky to get half of face value especially in a season like this. The weekday games are hard to get up for at this point, not to mention the 4 hour round trip on I-71.

As much as I love the team I don't think I'll be buying season tix next year. Maaaaaybe a 6 game flex. Had this season not gone to ****, I'm sure I'd be singing a different tune. But thats the reality of the situation, and if us diehards on HFboards are saying this, I'm sure the casual fan has too.

 

[DarkandStormy]

I'm also probably opting out next season - can go when I feel like it and buy scalpers or StubHub and save money. About 6-8 games where they might be the wrong route (Chicago, Pitt, maybe a weekend NYR game) but not a big deal.

 

[PubOFH]

Obviously the worst move in franchise history was acquiring the turd known as Sergei Fedorov for Francois Beauchemin.