Stepping back and looking at the way forward...

[alphafox]

Hi Everybody. To start out I would just like to let everyone know that I'm just trying to focus a discussion that has seemed to come up in every thread this year. Obviously this hasn't been the season we hoped for after last year, but I think that we have lost focus on the real problems with the team. To me those problems boil down to two things injuries and previous drafting.

The injuries are obvious to anyone with a passing interest in the team. This is the most injuries to key players that I have ever seen, without belaboring the point here are key players that have missed significant time this year: Bobrovsky, Anisimov, Murray, Dubinsky, Horton, Tyutin, etc.

The bigger part of the equation to me is something that is overlooked by alot of us due to various reasons; the poor drafting and roster construction prior to 2011 (excluding Johansen). Prior to the change in draft strategy and entering rebuild mode in 2011 We whiffed on multiple years worth of drafting, which was further exacerbated by the Carter trade where we lost our one great pick in Vorachek (who wasn't even close to what he developed into) and a high 1st. Our lack of capable drafting led to a whole host of issues with the team that we are still overcoming to this day. I feel like none of this can really be laid at the feet of the current front office. Have they made mistakes, absolutely; namely the Gaborik trades. Additionally they made the call that keeping available cap room was more important than keeping some of our better depth players. (That decision though was only exposed, due to the massive slate of injuries we suffered as well as the bust of Brian Gibbons which no one saw coming after his playoffs last year).

I think that we need to pull back and recognize that the years of ineptitude at the draft put us in such a significant hole that without a number of years there is no realistic way to completely overhaul team talent and depth. JD and Jarmo have taken alot of flak for their brick by brick stuff but justifiably need time to bring draft classes through the development cycle in order to fill the roster out with a better level of talent. I think the fact that our rebuild has been put on fast forward (due the emergence of Bob and Johansen and the Nash trade) has blinded people to the fact that we continue to have a lot of systemic roster issues. Just a few years ago we were legitimately the worst team in the NHL and while the roster has changed over the last three years we have not had the time or the assets to correct significant issues with the team, namely IMO the defense and scoring depth.

Personally, I think the best way forward is to stay the course and build through the draft. I think at the end of the day this season is an anomaly that exposed systemic issues that are in the process of being corrected. However, according to some of the posters there are bigger issues with the front office and the coaching staff that need to be fixed.

What do you guys think the way forward is?

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[candyman82]

Hi Everybody. To start out I would just like to let everyone know that I'm just trying to focus a discussion that has seemed to come up in every thread this year. Obviously this hasn't been the season we hoped for after last year, but I think that we have lost focus on the real problems with the team. To me those problems boil down to two things injuries and previous drafting.

The injuries are obvious to anyone with a passing interest in the team. This is the most injuries to key players that I have ever seen, without belaboring the point here are key players that have missed significant time this year: Bobrovsky, Anisimov, Murray, Dubinsky, Horton, Tyutin, etc.

The bigger part of the equation to me is something that is overlooked by alot of us due to various reasons; the poor drafting and roster construction prior to 2011 (excluding Johansen). Prior to the change in draft strategy and entering rebuild mode in 2011 We whiffed on multiple years worth of drafting, which was further exacerbated by the Carter trade where we lost our one great pick in Vorachek (who wasn't even close to what he developed into) and a high 1st. Our lack of capable drafting led to a whole host of issues with the team that we are still overcoming to this day. I feel like none of this can really be laid at the feet of the current front office. Have they made mistakes, absolutely; namely the Gaborik trades. Additionally they made the call that keeping available cap room was more important than keeping some of our better depth players. (That decision though was only exposed, due to the massive slate of injuries we suffered as well as the bust of Brian Gibbons which no one saw coming after his playoffs last year).

I think that we need to pull back and recognize that the years of ineptitude at the draft put us in such a significant hole that without a number of years there is no realistic way to completely overhaul team talent and depth. JD and Jarmo have taken alot of flak for their brick by brick stuff but justifiably need time to bring draft classes through the development cycle in order to fill the roster out with a better level of talent. I think the fact that our rebuild has been put on fast forward (due the emergence of Bob and Johansen and the Nash trade) has blinded people to the fact that we continue to have a lot of systemic roster issues. Just a few years ago we were legitimately the worst team in the NHL and while the roster has changed over the last three years we have not had the time or the assets to correct significant issues with the team, namely IMO the defense and scoring depth.

Personally, I think the best way forward is to stay the course and build through the draft. I think at the end of the day this season is an anomaly that exposed systemic issues that are in the process of being corrected. However, according to some of the posters there are bigger issues with the front office and the coaching staff that need to be fixed.

What do you guys think the way forward is?

Poor drafting my ass. Atkinson, Savard, Prout, Calvert, Moore, Goloubef, Collins, even Kubalik were all good picks. Plus, the Gaborik trade wasn't bad. Brassard was the only worthwhile piece in that and he wasn't going to be the player he is now in Columbus.

Now let's wait for Mayor Bee to rip your argument apart.

 

[Viqsi]

Cody Goloubef. 2nd 2008.
Matt Calvert. 5th 2008.
Cam Atkinson. 6th 2008.
David Savard. 4th 2009.
Dalton Prout. 6th 2010.

"Poor drafting".


Seriously, this was an excellent argument to make EIGHT YEARS AGO.

 

[Derby]

Cody Goloubef. 2nd 2008.
Matt Calvert. 5th 2008.
Cam Atkinson. 6th 2008.
David Savard. 4th 2009.
Dalton Prout. 6th 2010.

"Poor drafting".


Seriously, this was an excellent argument to make EIGHT YEARS AGO.

Jake 2007. (and he turned out alright. )

 

[EspenK]

I knew there would be exception taken to your comment about drafting.

On the whole I have to agree with you. If the team was better a lot of those guys would not have stuck, imo. Jake was a good pick obviously.
The rest meh. Cam is a popular whipping boy right now. I'd say for a 6th not bad but its all relative.

And furthermore to support the argument of "lousy drafting" who is still developing down in Springfield from drafts prior to the new guys. Not many. Maybe Madaisky.

 

[Sore Loser]

Doug MacLean drafting was terrible ... Scott Howson drafting was much, much better.

But, to those of you arguing the point, let's take a look at the examples used:

Cody Goloubef - #8 defenseman on this team on his best day
Dalton Prout - #7 defenseman on this team
Matt Calvert - maybe my favorite of this list, but a third line player in the NHL
Cam Atkinson - a third line player who can fill in spot duty in the top-6
David Savard - how many of you have been kvetching about him this week? Arguably the best player on this list, but the point stands.

Certainly, the drafting hasn't been bad, but of the examples listed, nobody can make an argument for a top-6 player outside of Jakub Voracek, who was dealt away.

I see where alphafox is coming from. Arguing his point with these players as counter points isn't enough to make his point not true, in my opinion.

 

[alphafox]

Cody Goloubef. 2nd 2008.
Matt Calvert. 5th 2008.
Cam Atkinson. 6th 2008.
David Savard. 4th 2009.
Dalton Prout. 6th 2010.

"Poor drafting".


Seriously, this was an excellent argument to make EIGHT YEARS AGO.

I guess we can agree to disagree. Not a single one of those players is what I consider an impact player. Where would they slot in on the Blues? Hawks? Rangers? Repeatedly whiffing on picks in rounds 1-3 is not excused by finding depth players in the later rounds. Failing to draft and develop a single elite player for the majority of your tenure puts a team behind the eight ball, and it takes years to recover.

This is not meant as an indictment of past front office decisions, it is only my take on where the current team is and where they are going.

 

[Mayor Bee]

Hi Everybody. To start out I would just like to let everyone know that I'm just trying to focus a discussion that has seemed to come up in every thread this year. Obviously this hasn't been the season we hoped for after last year, but I think that we have lost focus on the real problems with the team. To me those problems boil down to two things injuries and previous drafting.

The injuries are obvious to anyone with a passing interest in the team. This is the most injuries to key players that I have ever seen, without belaboring the point here are key players that have missed significant time this year: Bobrovsky, Anisimov, Murray, Dubinsky, Horton, Tyutin, etc.

The bigger part of the equation to me is something that is overlooked by alot of us due to various reasons; the poor drafting and roster construction prior to 2011 (excluding Johansen). Prior to the change in draft strategy and entering rebuild mode in 2011 We whiffed on multiple years worth of drafting, which was further exacerbated by the Carter trade where we lost our one great pick in Vorachek (who wasn't even close to what he developed into) and a high 1st. Our lack of capable drafting led to a whole host of issues with the team that we are still overcoming to this day. I feel like none of this can really be laid at the feet of the current front office. Have they made mistakes, absolutely; namely the Gaborik trades. Additionally they made the call that keeping available cap room was more important than keeping some of our better depth players. (That decision though was only exposed, due to the massive slate of injuries we suffered as well as the bust of Brian Gibbons which no one saw coming after his playoffs last year).

I think that we need to pull back and recognize that the years of ineptitude at the draft put us in such a significant hole that without a number of years there is no realistic way to completely overhaul team talent and depth. JD and Jarmo have taken alot of flak for their brick by brick stuff but justifiably need time to bring draft classes through the development cycle in order to fill the roster out with a better level of talent. I think the fact that our rebuild has been put on fast forward (due the emergence of Bob and Johansen and the Nash trade) has blinded people to the fact that we continue to have a lot of systemic roster issues. Just a few years ago we were legitimately the worst team in the NHL and while the roster has changed over the last three years we have not had the time or the assets to correct significant issues with the team, namely IMO the defense and scoring depth.

Personally, I think the best way forward is to stay the course and build through the draft. I think at the end of the day this season is an anomaly that exposed systemic issues that are in the process of being corrected. However, according to some of the posters there are bigger issues with the front office and the coaching staff that need to be fixed.

What do you guys think the way forward is?

This might make sense, if....

1) There weren't examples to the contrary. Others have brought them up, so I won't.

2) There does not appear to be an actual change in draft strategy around 2011. It's possible that there was, but I can't tell you what it is.

3) You weren't using an arbitrary cutoff of pre-2011, then excluding Johansen. This does a disservice to the front office of the time because Johansen has proven to be an excellent pick in that spot despite widespread bemoaning of it for three full seasons, and the fact that the GM (Howson) and the rest of the front office (everyone else) had less than seven days to prepare for the 2007 draft. That's a big setback in itself.

4) You weren't ignoring the fact that there's more than one way to build a team. Drafted players are certainly an important part, but so too are drafting players and turning them into something else. Maybe you acquire the ingredients and let someone else bake the cake, maybe you acquire the ingredients and bake it but let someone else eat it, maybe you trade a recipe card to someone else for their just-finished cake, but there's a lot of ways to do it.

Let's take a look at Los Angeles, who has drawn rave reviews for their draft-based turnaround starting around 2007. And let's use the same parameters by going only 2007-2010 and exclude the best player drafted. In this case, that's Drew Doughty.

Los Angeles from 2007-10 drafted the following NHL impact players on their team:
Los Angeles from 2007-10 drafted the following NHL players who are likely to make an impact in the near future: Tyler Toffoli
Los Angeles from 2007-10 drafted the following NHL depth players who are unlikely to make a significant impact: Alec Martinez, Dwight King, Kyle Clifford, Jordan Nolan

So the whole thing was a complete waste. They got nothing from a #4 overall pick (Thomas Hickey) that was a huge reach at the time, they got nothing from a #13 overall pick (Colton Teubert) with multiple actual impact players still on the board, and they've so far gotten nothing from a #15 overall pick (Derek Forbort) with a major impact player (Tarasenko) taken one spot later.

Obviously, Los Angeles was constructed through a multitude of different ways. They had free agent signings that worked well, they had trades that worked out, they developed players who were around before 2007 into impact players. Kopitar and Quick were 2005 picks, Dustin Brown 2003, and so on.

The Kings' drafting from 2007-10 was pretty nondescript outside of Doughty, and it would have been tough to have blown that pick anyway. Their success despite the lack of drafting in that time frame bears out that although drafting is vital, it's vital for reasons that go way beyond what that player individually and directly produces for you.

 

[Mayor Bee]

We're also forced into trying to determine who exactly drafted what in that same time period, and how Columbus stacks up.

For example, there were 20 goalies drafted in 2007 alone. Allen York (drafted by Columbus) is one of two to have an NHL win, and the other one (Scott Darling) only made it in the NHL this year at age 26.

Montreal struck gold with McDonagh, Pacioretty, and Subban in 2007. Of course, they traded McDonagh before he could do anything for them....but none of their 2008 draft picks have played a single game, none of their 2009 picks made an impact, and only Brendan Gallagher from 2010 saves Montreal from a three-year dry spell. We can even throw 2011 in there as well. Did Montreal draft well for five years or not?

 

[candyman82]

Doug MacLean drafting was terrible ... Scott Howson drafting was much, much better.

But, to those of you arguing the point, let's take a look at the examples used:

Cody Goloubef - #8 defenseman on this team on his best day
Dalton Prout - #7 defenseman on this team
Matt Calvert - maybe my favorite of this list, but a third line player in the NHL
Cam Atkinson - a third line player who can fill in spot duty in the top-6
David Savard - how many of you have been kvetching about him this week? Arguably the best player on this list, but the point stands.

Certainly, the drafting hasn't been bad, but of the examples listed, nobody can make an argument for a top-6 player outside of Jakub Voracek, who was dealt away.

I see where alphafox is coming from. Arguing his point with these players as counter points isn't enough to make his point not true, in my opinion.

20 goal scorer (Atkinson) is a 2nd line player and Savard is clearly a top 4. Prout is a solid bottom four D. Goloubef would be a bottom pairing guy on a lot of teams.

His point is poorly thought-out and based on long-discredited ideas.

 

[EspenK]

Well the expected draft defenders have been heard from but no one has addressed your real question which is how to go forward.

My opinion is that we need a couple of tweaks to be a much better team.

We need to add a top 6 W who is better offensively than any of our other W's. I like Foligno, Jenner and Hartnell but none of them would ever be confused with a Parise,Pacioretty,Perry, not to mention Kane. Please don't tell me Foligno has as many if not more goals than some of these guys-until I see it for more than one season I think he is a career 20 g tops guy.

I also think we need to have a top 2 D of Murray and ???. Exactly how we add that guy is a mystery. Maybe this year's draft produces him or a trade or FA. A trade up to grab Hanifin might be a smart move if it can be pulled off.

The other significant thing to me about the future is the length of contracts for Dubi, Hartnell, & Foligno. Throw in what hopefully will be long tenures for Joey and Jenner and that only leaves one top 6 spot for the likes of Wennberg, Milano, Bjorkstrand and this year's top pick if he is a F for the next 4 seasons. Not to mention Anisimov who I believe will be traded sometime after the season or at next year's trade deadline.

Goalie looks set although Bob needs to be more consistent and hopefully stays healthy. McBackup has played well lately so I believe he'll stick around for at least another year until Forsberg is ready to assume the back-up spot.

All in all I think we have a pretty decent playoff caliber team but not one that can go deep into the playoffs without the improvements listed above. No need for a major housecleaning but definitely some strong spring cleaning is needed to get to the next level.

 

[major major]

I'd step in to defend our drafting from 2007 to 2010 but it's been done ad nauseam, and there's no good argument that we weren't at least an average drafting team in that span.

 

[EDM]

I would think there is general agreement that we need one more top 6 guy, preferably a RW who is a sniper. Maybe best described as a 6' 2" 205 pound version of Cam.

 

[cbjfaninmo]

Moving forward....

1) Continue to stockpile picks with a deep draft
2) Top 6 RW
3) #1 or #2 Dman
4) Backup goalie

 

[major major]

A good scoring winger would be great. I don't know if that's a draft thing necessarily, because they can be traded for- Justin Williams (Mr. Conn Smythe) was acquired for Patrick O'Sullivan and a 2nd rounder. Of course that was a steal, but I think the point stands that its much easier to acquire a #1 wing than a #1D.

A #1D is something I hope we keep looking for in the draft. I just noticed, however, that Carlo is the highest ranked RHD, and he is a mid-rounder. We'll likely be picking much higher.

 

[JohnnyJacket13]

Reconfiguring the bottom-six should take priority over upgrading the defense imo at this point. We have a lot of young defenders that have potential (Savard and Murray especially) and a backbone of Tyutin, Wiz and Johnson.

1) Fix bottom-six
2) Trade for a top line winger that can score
3) Draft Hanifin

 

[DarkandStormy]

I think the drafting comments are more about high-end players. No #1 G drafted, no top pair Dman drafted (maybe Murray, if he ever stays healthy), no top line forwards drafted, outside of Johansen and Voracek who got traded.

There's a lot of nice depth guys - middle 6 forwards, bottom 4 Dmen, but you need a few stars to win.

That's how I took it, I guess. But between Calvert, Atkinson, Savard, Prout, etc. it's hard to say drafting has been bad overall. Maybe just on the top end.

 

[DarkandStormy]

I think we can look at the Isles as a blueprint - jump into the playoffs after years of being perennial losers.

Next season is lost with injuries.

Some nice offseason moves and boom...one of the better teams in the East.

 

[JohnnyJacket13]

I think we can look at the Isles as a blueprint - jump into the playoffs after years of being perennial losers.

Next season is lost with injuries.

Some nice offseason moves and boom...one of the better teams in the East.

I agree with this except that I don't see us being major free agent players unless if it is for rounding out the bottom-six. Jarmo and co. should be looking to upgrade via a trade or two (or three)

 

[major major]

I think the drafting comments are more about high-end players. No #1 G drafted, no top pair Dman drafted (maybe Murray, if he ever stays healthy), no top line forwards drafted, outside of Johansen and Voracek who got traded.

There's a lot of nice depth guys - middle 6 forwards, bottom 4 Dmen, but you need a few stars to win.

That's how I took it, I guess. But between Calvert, Atkinson, Savard, Prout, etc. it's hard to say drafting has been bad overall. Maybe just on the top end.

Leaving aside late-draft gems, if a GM can look back on 6 years of drafting and say he took Voracek, Johansen and Murray at the top, that's got to be a job well done.

I don't have the time to go make a chart of top picks by each GM in that span, but I'd be very surprised if that's not above average.

 

[major major]

Reconfiguring the bottom-six should take priority over upgrading the defense imo at this point. We have a lot of young defenders that have potential (Savard and Murray especially) and a backbone of Tyutin, Wiz and Johnson.

1) Fix bottom-six
2) Trade for a top line winger that can score
3) Draft Hanifin

I'd reverse that order, if possible. We need improvements in our bottom six, but if healthy we have a decent amount of scoring depth. A fourth line of Calvert - Letestu - Skille is a very good fourth line, and we're not far from having that.

And it's a good bet that neither Murray or Savard becomes a true #1D (i.e. top 30 D in the league).

 

[BluejacketNut]

The team is too young. You always hear them pointing out that theyre one of the youngest teams in the league, thats not a good thing unless youre in the playoff race, a lot of times its the reason youre not in the playoff race.

 

[major major]

I think we can look at the Isles as a blueprint - jump into the playoffs after years of being perennial losers.

Next season is lost with injuries.

Some nice offseason moves and boom...one of the better teams in the East.

We'll be lucky if we can get steals like the Isles did. Nick Leddy sometimes plays like one of the best d-men in the game, and they got him for Pokka!

 

[Nordique]

Good post, I agree with some, but not all of it.


1. This season was derailed by injuries, nothing else, plain and simple.

2. Poor drafting IMO pretty much starts and ends with the 2003 year where entire teams build their core (Perry, Getlaf), (Carter, Richardson), (Seabrook, Crawford, Byfuglien), while we settled for Zherdev and Fritsche. Doug Mclean, worst drafter of all time? Probably. Egomaniacle jackass? Absolutely.

3. Stay the course, we are improving and I like our prospect pool. Keep making smart picks, and be cautious in free agency and we could be a contender in a few years. I think JD/JK could make better choices in FA, but I like a lot more than I dislike from these 2.

 

[BluejacketNut]

This fan base will dwindle yet again if it takes a couple years to be a contender. Good GM's can turn teams around quickly, waiting on kids to become core producers takes way too long and most GM's dont get to stick around to see their success because of the losing.

Any success that this team has had have all been from Howson players, save Hartnell and maybe Connauton, JK really has no stamp on the team other then guys like Skille, Tropp, Gibbons, all who have been busts and the hope of future. He tried with Horton, but obviously missed big by signing him to 7 years. JK really has not shown much on the professional evaluation side of things, maybe he's a great amateur scout guy, but the verdict is still out because theyre still unproven. Maybe Wennberg will become a great player, but im not overly thrilled with our top prospect only being able to muster 6 points in 38 games which puts him tied at 38 among rookies....not what you really want to see from the teams top prospect unless he's suppose to be the second coming of Sammy Paulsson