Statistical look at various defensemen (EDM/FA/trade targets)

[Bryanbryoil]

As for our D from last season. Klefbom is a stud by pretty well any metric, the kid just oozes potential.

Ference is pretty much ready for a 7D spot, will Chia see that and move him into that position if his play warrants it or does he have too much loyalty to him since he was a Bruin?

Schultz doesn't shoot enough. He needs to get some kind of a slap shot and put the damn thing on net to take the next level offensively. No surprise he is rather poor defensively and IMO has gotten worse since entering the league.

Fayne at least does his job, I just wish that he added a physical element to his game.

Nikitin shoots a lot (came as advertised) but his hockey IQ is putrid.

Marincin shows some decent stats but his offense has been non existent. I still see him as trade bait.

 

[Mr Sakich]

not sure how to post his graph, but Calvin De Haan has a nice looking one.

He was progressing up their depth chart nicely until they brought in two fisrt pairing guys. Harmonic is their cornerstone guy and Riehart is looking for top 4 role this year. Isle fans like De Haan but seem ok trading him to address needs.

He would look nice on our 2nd pairing.

 

[phaedrusDH]

It's lacking a quality of competition set however that metric would be questionable because their is such diversity in quality across the league in skill at each position and line.

at first glace it seems vTOI considered qualcomp? i see Teammate CF60 and Opposition CF60 in the calculation.

 

[Riptide]

not sure how to post his graph, but Calvin De Haan has a nice looking one.

He was progressing up their depth chart nicely until they brought in two fisrt pairing guys. Harmonic is their cornerstone guy and Riehart is looking for top 4 role this year. Isle fans like De Haan but seem ok trading him to address needs.

He would look nice on our 2nd pairing.

They have a download option (bottom right corner). Then just upload it to a hosting site.

I doubt that De Haan is available. Reinhart played 8 games and averaged 14 minutes. He's (realistically) at least a year away from getting top 4 minutes. If you're looking at a young buy low candidate (on NYI) I'd be looking at Hickey. I think he'd be a lot more available then De Haan.

 

[DomBarr]

Hero or Zero

These charts are misleading. I severely doubt that you would find 1 team that would take 1 year of Klefbom right now instead of 1 year of Seabrook. For that matter Klefbom's chart looks more balanced and desirable for a top pairing Dman than Weber, Doughty or Keith. Though Doughty's is close

There is more to the game than advanced stats...

 

[Vagabond]

No, it says that the Predators gave up a lot of shots against when Weber was on the ice. Read whatever you want into that statement.

Most notably outside of TOI these charts don't do a great job of tracking the quality of your competition, as I understand them.

How do you explain PK Subban's chart then?

Just asking.

Subban plays tons of icetime and his shot suppression is incredible. Does that mean Montreal plays a better systems game in their own end over Nashville or is PK that good?

 

[Vagabond]

As for our D from last season. Klefbom is a stud by pretty well any metric, the kid just oozes potential.

Ference is pretty much ready for a 7D spot, will Chia see that and move him into that position if his play warrants it or does he have too much loyalty to him since he was a Bruin?

Schultz doesn't shoot enough. He needs to get some kind of a slap shot and put the damn thing on net to take the next level offensively. No surprise he is rather poor defensively and IMO has gotten worse since entering the league.

Fayne at least does his job, I just wish that he added a physical element to his game.

Nikitin shoots a lot (came as advertised) but his hockey IQ is putrid.

Marincin shows some decent stats but his offense has been non existent. I still see him as trade bait.

I completely agree. I'd add that Fayne needs more icetime. He does his job rather well. I think He can at least get top 4 in icetime.. *** was Eakins thinking!? Eakins gave Fayne bottom pairing icetime despite being a stud defensively.

Edit:

And as others have said earlier in this thread; Most of the issues stemmed from poor judgment of character hence having every d'man paired wrong. At least on the defensive end, meaning our defence could have been better with a real coach and proper defensive paring. without a doubt.

 

[Vagabond]

Hero or Zero

These charts are misleading. I severely doubt that you would find 1 team that would take 1 year of Klefbom right now instead of 1 year of Seabrook. For that matter Klefbom's chart looks more balanced and desirable for a top pairing Dman than Weber, Doughty or Keith. Though Doughty's is close

There is more to the game than advanced stats...

I'm pretty sure everybody here knows that. One thing I will say tho is this; If the player looked pathetic on the ice "VISUALLY" (MacT's special) and the advanced stats also state that then that player definitely needs to pull his socks up and look in the mirror.. AKA Ference last season and Schultz.

 

[HotToddy75]

The new goalie metric based on "high danger save percentage" now needs to be adapted for defensemen.

We need to see SA/60 broken down into high danger, medium danger and low danger. I'm guessing that guys like Weber allow fewer high danger shots than guys like Jultz. Not all shots are equal.

One needs to breakdown:

SA/60 LD (low danger)
SA/60 MD (medium danger)
SA/60 HD (high danger)

Once you do that, you'll see the dmen who not only allow few SA, but also allow only low danger SA. You'll see all defensemen's ratios of HD/MD/LD. That will be very revealing.

Let's take it a step further. Dmen work as a group, and as pairings. Each dman will have WOWY attributes that define his ability to work with other dmen. Guy's like Doughty can play with anyone and elevate them. Guys like Smid can suppress shots, but drag down their partner. You also need to know, for example,"Klefbom is a HD suppressor, and plays well with other HD suppressors, but struggles with high LD partners." WOWY stuff, but by category.

Another step further. In choosing a goalie, you need to match the goalie's strengths to the d corps' strengths. IE, if the goalie is a scrambler, he'll likely mesh well with a d corps that allows HD shots while suppressing LD and MD.

If I'm using advanced stats to choose players and build a team, I'm doing this:
- understanding the types of dmen (HD/MD/LD) I currently have and their ability to mesh with similar and dissimilar player types.
- understanding the trade targets and UFA options available and better predicting whether a player can mesh with the projected pairings he'll see with the current group
- understanding the goaltending options and ensuring that pairings and corps overall shot attributes maximize the goalie's strengths and hide his flaws.

I also believe that the best defensemen, and the best systems, suppress shot types where the goalie is moving laterally (or moving at all) at the time the shot is released. Conversely, I'd love to see SA stats that differentiate between SA's when the goalie is in a set and ready position at the moment of release, and 'in motion' shots.

 

[Riptide]

Hero or Zero

These charts are misleading. I severely doubt that you would find 1 team that would take 1 year of Klefbom right now instead of 1 year of Seabrook. For that matter Klefbom's chart looks more balanced and desirable for a top pairing Dman than Weber, Doughty or Keith. Though Doughty's is close

There is more to the game than advanced stats...

No one disputes that. Just like I don't think anyone would take OK over BS for a 1 year/tourny thing. But that doesn't mean these stats don't have any value. It's a matter of taking it with a grain of salt, and using these to aid you, vs using these as the end all be all.

How do you explain PK Subban's chart then?

Just asking.

Subban plays tons of icetime and his shot suppression is incredible. Does that mean Montreal plays a better systems game in their own end over Nashville or is PK that good?

Letang's is the same.

 

[oXo Cube]

Hero or Zero

These charts are misleading. I severely doubt that you would find 1 team that would take 1 year of Klefbom right now instead of 1 year of Seabrook. For that matter Klefbom's chart looks more balanced and desirable for a top pairing Dman than Weber, Doughty or Keith. Though Doughty's is close

There is more to the game than advanced stats...

Nobody said that they would though. Just guessing, but I imagine if you were to isolate Klefboms charts to the last stretch of the season where he started to play against the regular competition level of the players you listed, he would look a lot(a LOT) worse.

How do you explain PK Subban's chart then?

Just asking.

Subban plays tons of icetime and his shot suppression is incredible. Does that mean Montreal plays a better systems game in their own end over Nashville or is PK that good?

As you are aware there is no entirely accurate answer and it's probably a combination of a lot of things but I might just take the simple route in answer to Subban. Both he and his partner Markov are really, really good possession drivers and underrated defensive players.

Weber is better than both of them strictly at playing defense but if you aren't playing defense you aren't giving up shots.

 

[Riptide]

The new goalie metric based on "high danger save percentage" now needs to be adapted for defensemen.
<snip>
I also believe that the best defensemen, and the best systems, suppress shot types where the goalie is moving laterally (or moving at all) at the time the shot is released. Conversely, I'd love to see SA stats that differentiate between SA's when the goalie is in a set and ready position at the moment of release, and 'in motion' shots.

The more stats we can get the better... but I think many of the stats you suggested will have to wait until the NHL starts using RFID chips in the jerseys and pucks, so that this process can be more automated. Eventually this will happen - it's just going to take a few years.

 

[Riptide]

Nobody said that they would though. Just guessing, but I imagine if you were to isolate Klefboms charts to the last stretch of the season where he started to play against the regular competition level of the players you listed, he would look a lot(a LOT) worse.

Yeah unfortunately there's no options in regards to the time frame.

 

[Mr Sakich]

The new goalie metric based on "high danger save percentage" now needs to be adapted for defensemen.

We need to see SA/60 broken down into high danger, medium danger and low danger. I'm guessing that guys like Weber allow fewer high danger shots than guys like Jultz. Not all shots are equal.

One needs to breakdown:

SA/60 LD (low danger)
SA/60 MD (medium danger)
SA/60 HD (high danger)

Once you do that, you'll see the dmen who not only allow few SA, but also allow only low danger SA. You'll see all defensemen's ratios of HD/MD/LD. That will be very revealing.

I seen a Jets blogger do this analysis with Buff. When on the ice, Buff generates a lot of shots and goals. He does not allow a lot of shots but they seem to be very high quality shots and the result was a lot of goals against.

 

[HotToddy75]

The more stats we can get the better... but I think many of the stats you suggested will have to wait until the NHL starts using RFID chips in the jerseys and pucks, so that this process can be more automated. Eventually this will happen - it's just going to take a few years.

It's already available through the shot location charting:

http://war-on-ice.com/goalietable.html

This goalie chart has all the data you need, just need to cross reference players on ice at the time of the shot.

 

[Riptide]

It's already available through the shot location charting:

http://war-on-ice.com/goalietable.html

This goalie chart has all the data you need, just need to cross reference players on ice at the time of the shot.

Still has to be compiled. Considering the infancy the NHL stats are still in, I don't expect to see a ton of in depth stats until it is more of an automated process with regards to what's available. I mean we've come a long way in just the last what... 3-5 years? But the more info we want, the easier it needs to be to gather and crunch the data.

It's not entirely dependent on RFID chips... but I expect that we'll see an explosion shortly after those start getting used. In regards to stats, the next 10 years (vs the last 10) will be very interesting.

 

[Blue Line Turnover]

It would be so sweet if we could get Francois Beauchemin. I'm guessing that there's now way it happens, but how awesome would it be for Klef's development to have someone like Beauch around to eat up minutes

 

[Tarus]

I must say, I rather like those charts. The suppressed shots/unblocked shots rate seems a bit dodgy though, there doesn't seem to be much of a reliable pattern there.

Was looking at the charts for forwards too. Looks like Hall/Eberle qualify as bona fide first liners, and RNH barely qualifies as a second liner

 

[Bryanbryoil]

It would be so sweet if we could get Francois Beauchemin. I'm guessing that there's now way it happens, but how awesome would it be for Klef's development to have someone like Beauch around to eat up minutes

If he doesn't re-up in Anaheim I would push hard to sign him. That said I'd try to keep it to a 3 year deal. I'd overpay him for that time since he'll be 35 next month. I would not want to sign him to 4 years or more or he could become a very expensive version of Ference.

 

[Bangers]

If he doesn't re-up in Anaheim I would push hard to sign him. That said I'd try to keep it to a 3 year deal. I'd overpay him for that time since he'll be 35 next month. I would not want to sign him to 4 years or more or he could become a very expensive version of Ference.

The thing I like about Beauchemin is that, not only is he a legit top 4 defender and a "heavy" player, he's also been credited as a good mentor for young defenders.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

The thing I like about Beauchemin is that, not only is he a legit top 4 defender and a "heavy" player, he's also been credited as a good mentor for young defenders.

He'd be ideal but the only reason that I'd see him coming here is for the $ and we can ill afford to get stuck on the hook for a big deal when at the end of it he's pushing 40.

 

[Aerchon]

The new goalie metric based on "high danger save percentage" now needs to be adapted for defensemen.

We need to see SA/60 broken down into high danger, medium danger and low danger. I'm guessing that guys like Weber allow fewer high danger shots than guys like Jultz. Not all shots are equal.

One needs to breakdown:

SA/60 LD (low danger)
SA/60 MD (medium danger)
SA/60 HD (high danger)

Once you do that, you'll see the dmen who not only allow few SA, but also allow only low danger SA. You'll see all defensemen's ratios of HD/MD/LD. That will be very revealing.

Let's take it a step further. Dmen work as a group, and as pairings. Each dman will have WOWY attributes that define his ability to work with other dmen. Guy's like Doughty can play with anyone and elevate them. Guys like Smid can suppress shots, but drag down their partner. You also need to know, for example,"Klefbom is a HD suppressor, and plays well with other HD suppressors, but struggles with high LD partners." WOWY stuff, but by category.

Another step further. In choosing a goalie, you need to match the goalie's strengths to the d corps' strengths. IE, if the goalie is a scrambler, he'll likely mesh well with a d corps that allows HD shots while suppressing LD and MD.

If I'm using advanced stats to choose players and build a team, I'm doing this:
- understanding the types of dmen (HD/MD/LD) I currently have and their ability to mesh with similar and dissimilar player types.
- understanding the trade targets and UFA options available and better predicting whether a player can mesh with the projected pairings he'll see with the current group
- understanding the goaltending options and ensuring that pairings and corps overall shot attributes maximize the goalie's strengths and hide his flaws.

I also believe that the best defensemen, and the best systems, suppress shot types where the goalie is moving laterally (or moving at all) at the time the shot is released. Conversely, I'd love to see SA stats that differentiate between SA's when the goalie is in a set and ready position at the moment of release, and 'in motion' shots.

Thank you for putting into words what I see as common sense yet would never bother to even attempt to explain.

All stats are weak without context. Your methodology applies context to statics.

Maybe you have figured a way to add in quality of competition as well? Giving up a break away goal to Kane is significantly different than Horcoff.

Those charts IMO are only marginally better than plus minus if you didn't watch those games to add context. Even applying where shots are taken from only improves the picture generally speaking but at the same time could be completely misleading.

 

[Sweetpotato]

Z-Y
Klefbom-X
Marincin-Fayne
Nurse

Z: Erhoff>Sekera>Martin
Y: Burns>Green>Byfuglien>Braun
X: Braun>Petry>Franson

2x2nds+3rd for Klein+Talbot

Try to acquire Burns with the 16th oa/2016 1st+Marincin+ if not the push for green in FA

Propose an Anderson+weircioch trade maybe

Erhoff-Burns
Klefbom-Fayne
Weircioch-Klein
Nurse

Anderson
Talbot

This is what I see as our dream outcome when applying context but I'd hope we could drop Nikitin and Ference some how..

 

[belair]

It would be so sweet if we could get Francois Beauchemin. I'm guessing that there's now way it happens, but how awesome would it be for Klef's development to have someone like Beauch around to eat up minutes

If not Beauchemin, then Wisniewski for certain.

But either would be a step in the right direction.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

Really these charts only confirm two things: Justin Schultz is clueless in the defensive zone and Andrew Ference is a dreadful hockey player just in general.