Management State of the Bruins - Neely 5/19/22 (unedited)

[Dennis Bonvie]

Yes...the fan base that want more then average from this team...that's the true fan...not someone who looks , copy's and says the same crap over and over again. I get you don't like what I say...I could care less...your like many here

You talkin' to me?

Honestly, I don't know what you are talking about.

 

[Lordstanley]

You talkin' to me?

Honestly, I don't know what you are talking about.

 

[Donnie Shulzhoffer]

You look up Redundant it says this thread

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Forbort was a beast in the playoffs. I gave him a similar grade. Said it would be a C+ Regular season B or B- including postseason.

Nosek F is a little much though. He ended up with 17 points playing on the 4th line and had 29.3% offensive zone starts. He was a beast on the PK. His stone hands did leave a few goals off the board, but no way does he deserve an F

He was not a beast in the playoffs. He got caved in over and over.

 

[GoBs]

He was not a beast in the playoffs. He got caved in over and over.

Lol
If you don't have Forbort you never see a game seven
He was a machine on the PK

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Lol
If you don't have Forbort you never see a game seven
He was a machine on the PK

He carried a xGF% in the low 30s for the series. The very definition of caved in.

 

[Cronuss]

Foligno: F

Nosek: F

Forbort: B

Haula: B

Ullmark: B+

Lindholm: A+

I'd bring all those scored a little more towards the middle:

Foligno: D
Locker room character stuff, but did nothing on the ice. Maybe D+

Nosek: D+/C-
Had some nice defensive checking shifts, but otherwise did nothing, black hole of offense.

Forbort: C+(B- in playoffs)
Overall not noticeable and doesn't bring enough. Was great in playoffs

Haula: B-
Sure, he filled in as a #2C role... and with two of the better players in the league made it passable. Great 3rd line center, not much more there. Overall I like him, but not a #2C.

Ullmark: B-
Maybe even C+ here. Bad start to the season, took forever to get going, and never really got into much of a groove until the end of the season. He did look great at the end.

Lindholm: B+/A-
Early flashes are awesome. I worry he isn't tough enough or the kind of player we needed, but he isn't a pushover, and his skill and IQ are great.

 

[HustleB]

Sorry it is the truth. It does not include blue-chippers like Lysell or more than likely Harrison, but the rank and file guys suck.

I still believe Studnicka and Steen are future middle 6 players. Sure I am still waiting for the lightbulb to go off with Stud, I thought it had a couple years ago and I am looking for more consistency from Steen, but I think they are both going to be players in the middle 6 in this league. For the Bruins or someone else and I would much rather it be the Bruins. This is an important aspect of cost control and something the B's need to do better.

 

[rocketdan9]

I'd bring all those scored a little more towards the middle:

Foligno: D
Locker room character stuff, but did nothing on the ice. Maybe D+

Nosek: D+/C-
Had some nice defensive checking shifts, but otherwise did nothing, black hole of offense.

Forbort: C+(B- in playoffs)
Overall not noticeable and doesn't bring enough. Was great in playoffs

Haula: B-
Sure, he filled in as a #2C role... and with two of the better players in the league made it passable. Great 3rd line center, not much more there. Overall I like him, but not a #2C.

Ullmark: B-
Maybe even C+ here. Bad start to the season, took forever to get going, and never really got into much of a groove until the end of the season. He did look great at the end.

Lindholm: B+/A-
Early flashes are awesome. I worry he isn't tough enough or the kind of player we needed, but he isn't a pushover, and his skill and IQ are great.

Sweeney - D+ offseason/B- Trade deadline
Cassidy - B+ regular season/C+ playoffs

Offense/creativity continues to be an issues.

Its too bad Krejci didnt return. If Krech returned, no Foligno, Nosek, Reilly?

Marchand Bergeron Debrusk
Hall Krejci Pasta
Haula Coyle Smith
Frederic Lazar Blidh

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Sweeney - D+ offseason/B- Trade deadline
Cassidy - B+ regular season/C+ playoffs

Offense/creativity continues to be an issues.

Its too bad Krejci didnt return. If Krech returned, no Foligno, Nosek, Reilly?

Marchand Bergeron Debrusk
Hall Krejci Pasta
Haula Coyle Smith
Frederic Lazar Blidh

I don’t know how Haula/Nosek/Ullmark gets you a D+. Yes Foligno hurts the grade but D+? And a trade deadline when you get the best defenseman on the market and get him locked down to a more than appropriate deal as a UFA shouldn’t be a B-. I’m old enough to remember NO RENTALS

 

[NDiesel]

He carried a xGF% in the low 30s for the series. The very definition of caved in.

Is Forbort expected to get goals? Could have sworn his job was defense....i get the thought is the more you out shoot the opponent and out possess them the less chances the opponent gets but I think people severely underrate what being able to play hard defensive minutes allows the rest of the guys to do.

You can't win with an entirely uniform team, you need mixes of all different types to win. I'm sure Bortuzzo, Manson and other 3rd pair guys have similar metrics and are still in the playoffs.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Is Forbort expected to get goals? Could have sworn his job was defense....i get the thought is the more you out shoot the opponent and out possess them the less chances the opponent gets but I think people severely underrate what being able to play hard defensive minutes allows the rest of the guys to do.

You can't win with an entirely uniform team, you need mixes of all different types to win. I'm sure Bortuzzo, Manson and other 3rd pair guys have similar metrics and are still in the playoffs.

It’s crazy - and @burstnbloom has been on this all year - but Forbort was completely outplayed all series. XGF doesn’t mean he should have gotten goals - just that 65% of the good scoring opps while he was on the ice was for the other team. It’s a sub replacement, Ben Chiarot level number. I defended him all year - even from Burst - but he did not have a good series at all.

 

[Root]

Is Forbort expected to get goals? Could have sworn his job was defense....i get the thought is the more you out shoot the opponent and out possess them the less chances the opponent gets but I think people severely underrate what being able to play hard defensive minutes allows the rest of the guys to do.

You can't win with an entirely uniform team, you need mixes of all different types to win. I'm sure Bortuzzo, Manson and other 3rd pair guys have similar metrics and are still in the playoffs.

Great post. It’s crazy to me that people don’t understand certain players roles and how that impacts analytics. Citing xGF% for Forbort is ridiculous. He had 19% overall offensive zone starts. No shit he had a low xGF%.

 

[Over the volcano]

Great post. It’s crazy to me that people don’t understand certain players roles and how that impacts analytics. Citing xGF% for Forbort is ridiculous. He had 19% overall offensive zone starts. No shit he had a low xGF%.

McAvoy was force fed more offensive zone starts than just about any defenseman in the league

 

[Bs1011]

Cute little narrative management has spun here the last few days that, in any sort of reality, this team underachieved.

How dumb do they think we are?

Real dumb!

 

[rocketdan9]

I don’t know how Haula/Nosek/Ullmark gets you a D+. Yes Foligno hurts the grade but D+? And a trade deadline when you get the best defenseman on the market and get him locked down to a more than appropriate deal as a UFA shouldn’t be a B-. I’m old enough to remember NO RENTALS

Sweeney didnt address top 6 center (trade deadline)

Was D the issue(4th best team D metrics in the league) or lack of offensive output?

I do like Lindholm... so this is why B

Offseason moves were mediocre at best. How can it even be defended?

Ullmark was not necessary or overpay(why nmc?). Nosek not needed. Foligno a bad move. Haula was good (but 3rd liner)

Bruins could have saved money on Ullmark, Reilly, Nosek, Foligno/if unable to sign quality FAs..... this is why its a D

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Sweeney didnt address top 6 center (trade deadline)

Was D the issue(4th best team D metrics in the league) or lack of offensive output?

I do like Lindholm... so this is why B

Offseason moves were mediocre at best. How can it be even defended?

Ullmark was not necessary or overpay(why nmc?). Nosek not needed. Foligno a bad move. Haula was good (but 3rd liner)

Bruins could have saved money on Ullmark, Reilly, Nosek, Foligno/if unable to sign quality FAs..... this is why its a D

What top 6 C was anyone getting at the deadline? Ullmark was absolutely necessary - people are just skating by his performance when Swayman hit the wall. He earned the playoff start and everyone agreed. That’s revisionist history.

Imagine this team without Haula. He was great from January through April. You can’t bang on that at that price.

 

[Meusoc]

Senyshyn isn't even a Bruin anymore. He went to Ottawa at the TDL. Lysell is young and will grow. Pasta was a stick at the same age and in his first couple of pro seasons. 2018 is looking like a washout year- no first, our pick in the second was shipped off the Anaheim. Past that you get into probably not going to make it territory for just about everyone picked for every team. Lauko needs to turn it around this season. 2019, Beecher just came out of college, so the book is out on him, the rest ??. 2020 was Lohrei, still in college and again, no first. Kuntar in college. 2021, well the vast majority of players picked in that draft haven't played in the NHL. It was just last summer so not a good measure for any team.

It's not a great prospect pool, but isn't utter shit, either. There will be some busts, never-was's, and a couple of surprises.

Lohrie is 21 year old freshman? If he had a solid future ahead of him, he'd be in the lineup by now. Beecher had 10 goals in his last 50 games at Michigan. 10 goals in 50 games sucks as a NHL forward; and he won't be getting 10 goals in 50 games in the NHL. Lauko had 16 points in 50 AHL games, and Kuntar cant come close to a point poer game as 21 year old in college. There is a reason why Bruins are pretty much last in prospects.

 

[rocketdan9]

Lohrie is 21 year old freshman? If he had a solid future ahead of him, he'd be in the lineup by now. Beecher had 10 goals in his last 50 games at Michigan. 10 goals in 50 games sucks as a NHL forward; and he won't be getting 10 goals in 50 games in the NHL. Lauko had 16 points in 50 AHL games, and Kuntar cant come close to a point poer game as 21 year old in college. There is a reason why Bruins are pretty much last in prospects.

Beecher had 5 pts in 9 games with Providence... does that count?

Where is the credit for Lysell(playoffs) after you bashed him? Still waiting

 

[Tbaybruin]

He carried a xGF% in the low 30s for the series. The very definition of caved in.

He was fantastic in the playoffs

 

[RussellmaniaKW]

I've been meaning to post my thoughts here and have started (and deleted) several posts to that effect, but all I really have to say is that I am deeply saddened by the narrative coming out of the Bruins front office, particularly from Neely. I was hoping for something, anything to be said to indicate some sort of plan or vision for the future of this org but all we got was a bunch of "well we have to be better in X area" type stuff and a clear continued reliance on Bergeron & the inherited core.

The fact that the immediate plan for this team is to just wait & see what Bergeron does tells me we can just expect the status quo to continue unless Bergeron retires, forcing their hands. And given the way they handled the Krejci departure I have zero faith that they have the ability or willingness to make the sort of bold moves required to replace a guy like Bergeron. If he goes we'll get some half-baked "replacement" for him and the team will be much, much worse.

The fact is, they should NOT be in a position where they have to wait & see on Bergeron. They should have anticipated this literally years ago and been on the hunt for a 1C before Krejci was even gone. At this point they should have a younger 1C ready to take the reigns so that the Bergeron question would simply be a question of whether Bergy or someone else fills your 2C spot. Instead they have no legit 2C and there's a good chance their 1C will retire leaving them arguably the shallowest team down the middle in the entire NHL.

The bottom line is that this front office sounds continuously on their heels when it comes to addressing this team's needs. They are reactive when they need to be proactive. At some point the old, inherited core is going to age out and leave and they'll be left with 4 excellent players in McAvoy, Pasta, Swayman & Lindholm and then nothing but overpaid garbage surrounding them. Sadly I am hearing NOTHING from Sweeney or Neely to indicate that they have a plan to avoid this (and really let's face it...any such plan would have needed to be enacted years ago and would have relied on drafting better than they have).

The worst thing is that extending Sweeney means that none of this is going to change.

 

[ON3M4N]

It’s crazy - and @burstnbloom has been on this all year - but Forbort was completely outplayed all series. XGF doesn’t mean he should have gotten goals - just that 65% of the good scoring opps while he was on the ice was for the other team. It’s a sub replacement, Ben Chiarot level number. I defended him all year - even from Burst - but he did not have a good series at all.

I don't know that I'd say he didn't have a good series. He was a huge part of the PK that seemed to give CAR problems. At 5v5 all things equal and per 60:

Started more zone starts in the defensive zone than any other d-man. SA/60 were highest (to be expected when you start in the d-zone as much as he does), but he had the 3rd lowest GA/60, 2nd lowest HDCA/60 and 2nd lowest HDGA/60.

So despite CAR getting a lot of shots & chances with Forbort on the ice compared to other Bruins d-men, they didn't really capitalize on it much compare to other Bruins d-men and high danger chances were less likely. I thought for what he is, he did his job. He wasn't a guy I look at and think "we needed more from him in that series"

 

[burstnbloom]

It’s crazy - and @burstnbloom has been on this all year - but Forbort was completely outplayed all series. XGF doesn’t mean he should have gotten goals - just that 65% of the good scoring opps while he was on the ice was for the other team. It’s a sub replacement, Ben Chiarot level number. I defended him all year - even from Burst - but he did not have a good series at all.

Uh oh - MNK called in reinforcements. The narrative around Forbort is "the world is flat" level cognitive dissonance at this point. yes, he starts in the d zone more than anyone. We know. That doesn't excuse his absolutely putrid numbers against the worst competition or the fact that every player he was paired with all year was worse with him than with other partners. This player is bad, he's always been bad, he was bad this year. He did block a lot of shots, cool. You know what though, let's not worry about what hte metrics say. Let's just look at what happened. The graphic below is Corey Sznajder's zone exit and defensive zone retrieval data for the playoffs against Carolina. what it tells you is that Forbort and Clifton were by far the worst pair at getting the puck and getting it out of the d zone and only Carlo was more likely to fail a retrieval attempt or exit. This graph doesn't care about ozone starts, it compares your chances to do something and how many times you failed at it. Forbort and Clifton played the weakest QOC of any of the D pairs in the playoffs and still their presence objectively lead to more zone time for Carolina. There's no real argument at this point that the guy is a good player other than you personally like him. That's fine. you can like him, but his performance is still bad. He's also not the only bad one. Clifton, not great, Carlo, putrid. Lindholm is hanging out in a pretty weird spot but its such a small sample.

This second graphic is from Forbort's player card for the regular season. What does this say? It says he's brutal on offense. below average on shots, shot assists, etc etc. but we already knew that. He does get his shot through better than most, which is surprising. He just never gets one off. The argument that he's "good" is always centerered around his defense, so lets spend our time there. He actually gets to the puck a lot in the d zone - thats mostly zone start related. He botches it more than almost anyone inthe NHL. He's downright bad at retrievals, retievals leading to exits, total exits, failed exits. So once the puck is in the d zone, he can't get it out. Also, on zone entry defense he way above average on how often the other team attacks him. They don't dump it past him, they carry it past him. To his credit, he's better than average at stopping them when they do that, but its telling that they just attack him. It's impossible for me to understand the explaining away of this very bad player. Damn you @MarchysNoseKnows, I was working. And just to cut off the "watch the games" criticism up front. The All Three Zones project is legitimately watching every game and tracking every play. He's watching closer than you, I promise.

 

[MarchysNoseKnows]

Uh oh - MNK called in reinforcements. The narrative around Forbort is "the world is flat" level cognitive dissonance at this point. yes, he starts in the d zone more than anyone. We know. That doesn't excuse his absolutely putrid numbers against the worst competition or the fact that every player he was paired with all year was worse with him than with other partners. This player is bad, he's always been bad, he was bad this year. He did block a lot of shots, cool. You know what though, let's not worry about what hte metrics say. Let's just look at what happened. The graphic below is Corey Sznajder's zone exit and defensive zone retrieval data for the playoffs against Carolina. what it tells you is that Forbort and Clifton were by far the worst pair at getting the puck and getting it out of the d zone and only Carlo was more likely to fail a retrieval attempt or exit. This graph doesn't care about ozone starts, it compares your chances to do something and how many times you failed at it. Forbort and Clifton played the weakest QOC of any of the D pairs in the playoffs and still their presence objectively lead to more zone time for Carolina. There's no real argument at this point that the guy is a good player other than you personally like him. That's fine. you can like him, but his performance is still bad. He's also not the only bad one. Clifton, not great, Carlo, putrid. Lindholm is hanging out in a pretty weird spot but its such a small sample.

View attachment 551369

This second graphic is from Forbort's player card for the regular season. What does this say? It says he's brutal on offense. below average on shots, shot assists, etc etc. but we already knew that. He does get his shot through better than most, which is surprising. He just never gets one off. The argument that he's "good" is always centerered around his defense, so lets spend our time there. He actually gets to the puck a lot in the d zone - thats mostly zone start related. He botches it more than almost anyone inthe NHL. He's downright bad at retrievals, retievals leading to exits, total exits, failed exits. So once the puck is in the d zone, he can't get it out. Also, on zone entry defense he way above average on how often the other team attacks him. They don't dump it past him, they carry it past him. To his credit, he's better than average at stopping them when they do that, but its telling that they just attack him. It's impossible for me to understand the explaining away of this very bad player. Damn you @MarchysNoseKnows, I was working. And just to cut off the "watch the games" criticism up front. The All Three Zones project is legitimately watching every game and tracking every play. He's watching closer than you, I promise.

View attachment 551372

Well there it is...

 

[JerseyBruin]

Uh oh - MNK called in reinforcements. The narrative around Forbort is "the world is flat" level cognitive dissonance at this point. yes, he starts in the d zone more than anyone. We know. That doesn't excuse his absolutely putrid numbers against the worst competition or the fact that every player he was paired with all year was worse with him than with other partners. This player is bad, he's always been bad, he was bad this year. He did block a lot of shots, cool. You know what though, let's not worry about what hte metrics say. Let's just look at what happened. The graphic below is Corey Sznajder's zone exit and defensive zone retrieval data for the playoffs against Carolina. what it tells you is that Forbort and Clifton were by far the worst pair at getting the puck and getting it out of the d zone and only Carlo was more likely to fail a retrieval attempt or exit. This graph doesn't care about ozone starts, it compares your chances to do something and how many times you failed at it. Forbort and Clifton played the weakest QOC of any of the D pairs in the playoffs and still their presence objectively lead to more zone time for Carolina. There's no real argument at this point that the guy is a good player other than you personally like him. That's fine. you can like him, but his performance is still bad. He's also not the only bad one. Clifton, not great, Carlo, putrid. Lindholm is hanging out in a pretty weird spot but its such a small sample.

View attachment 551369

This second graphic is from Forbort's player card for the regular season. What does this say? It says he's brutal on offense. below average on shots, shot assists, etc etc. but we already knew that. He does get his shot through better than most, which is surprising. He just never gets one off. The argument that he's "good" is always centerered around his defense, so lets spend our time there. He actually gets to the puck a lot in the d zone - thats mostly zone start related. He botches it more than almost anyone inthe NHL. He's downright bad at retrievals, retievals leading to exits, total exits, failed exits. So once the puck is in the d zone, he can't get it out. Also, on zone entry defense he way above average on how often the other team attacks him. They don't dump it past him, they carry it past him. To his credit, he's better than average at stopping them when they do that, but its telling that they just attack him. It's impossible for me to understand the explaining away of this very bad player. Damn you @MarchysNoseKnows, I was working. And just to cut off the "watch the games" criticism up front. The All Three Zones project is legitimately watching every game and tracking every play. He's watching closer than you, I promise.

View attachment 551372

So where are the stats on blocked shots or does that not fit the narrative because he's good at it.