I'd argue that that judging future Norris likelihood by rookie seasons being a bad assessment model is more the rule than otherwise.
Except several of the players I mentioned aren't rookies. Heiskanen isn't a rookie. Dahlin isn't a rookie, etc...
Keith, Burns, Giordano, Chara, Karlsson, Hedman, PK.... All Norris winners who had other dmen of their age or younger performing "ahead" of them very early in their career.
Yeah, guys like Karlsson who had 78 points in 81 games in their 3rd season. You know...in his 3rd season(which Sergachev is currently in) Karlsson won his first norris. I'm glad you think they're similar.
Of course the others are good examples of players who won later on in their career after continued growth but on what basis is Sergachev going to have guaranteed growth until his 30s?
Aren't we continuously victims of this logic. The idea where players will continuously improve, without fault, especially the ones we like. I DO believe Sergachev will improve but the question isn't IF he'll improve the question is if he'll win a norris. Guys like Heiskanen aren't just 'ahead', he's at a conn smythe level performance. He's already a top end talent, not an emerging one.
I was pointing out a very common reality... Norris winners tend to be dmen whose games continuously improve from early in their careers onward.
Sergachev has shown very impressive growth in his game.
That, more than immediate performance, is a far better predictor of future Norris caliber play. That's a pretty consistent "rule" if we looked at the past winners & contenders.
To pull a random name out of a hat: It's like me saying Matt Dumba showed growth in his first 3 seasons...he should be winning norris any minute now.
Yeah, improving your game is key but just because you improve doesn't mean you'll ever be on that level. It's very difficult. It's no different than a kotkaniemi or any young talent. We see the improvement but to be THE GUY is not the same as being a core piece. Not everyone can do it.
Yes, he's on a great team, but what is noticeable and impressive about his game is how far it's already come at the defensive end of things. He's playing big minutes with top matchups and having major impact despite not lighting it up offensively... He's doing what his team/coach need from him to win.
There's a maturity to his game that was definitely not there as a rookie, and yet we know the offensive game/skill is very much there.
He's a good player, no doubt. He's being played as an offensive #3 d-man currently. A lean towards PP over SH and all that and he's doing well. Nothing wrong with him.
Id say that bodes well for the kind of all around impact Norris winners usually have... Something a guy like Quinn, whom you listed, clearly doesn't show yet.
Sure but I mentioned others.
Heck, even his Norris teammate Hedman wasn't nearly as well rounded and impactful at the same age.
That is a curious position to take about Hedman.
At same age Hedman played more per game.
Hedman played less on the PP per game than Sergachev but MORE on the PK than sergachev.
He had more points per game(lead TBL D in PPG), his PPG is higher than Sergachev's PPG this year despite Sergachev playing on better team with more PP time...
He didn't have much better players in front of him to protect him.
Are you really implying Sergachev, as a #3 is more impactful and well rounded than a guy who was playing more, making more points and killing more penalties while succeeding on a worse team?
Yet you feel apt to liken compare him to Cheechoo winning the rocket???
I never compared the two. I said if Cheechoo(an extreme) can win then anything is possible. Sergachev is a better player in his position than Cheechoo was.
Granted, don't forget you compared Sergachev to Karlsson...a guy who had a norris at same age. Just saying...
That is a very curious bias hiding behind a completely ungrounded assessment
Your assessment is based on fact a young player is improving well and doing good things.
Have you not seen hundreds of players improve over the years around the league only to NOT end up stars?
You have this idea that I said Sergachev is bad or won't amount to much. I'm just saying I don't think he will be the best d-man in the world in any given year.
You disagree, you think within the next 10-15 years(up to 37 I guess) Sergachev will be crowned best d-man in the world.
Like I said, it's always possible but the competition is stiff both from prime aged talents like Hedman and by young guys on the rise.
If you consider something like this ungrounded then so be it.