Post-Game Talk: Somewhat entertaining at least!

[Claypool]

Wouldn't not wanting to tank probably make it even longer?

Who really knows. Maybe in a few seasons Larkin and Mantha become superstars and Erik Karlsson wants to join the Red Wings as a free agent. It's not like the East is some scary conference, either. Hell, if Detroit even played average this year they'd comfortably be in a playoff spot. Maybe at the top of their division.

 

[Frk It]

Who really knows. Maybe in a few seasons Larkin and Mantha become superstars and Erik Karlsson wants to join the Red Wings as a free agent. It's not like the East is some scary conference, either. Hell, if Detroit even played average this year they'd comfortably be in a playoff spot. Maybe at the top of their division.

True true. We're at where we're at. I just hope we don't draft 10th-14th. Anything else is fine.

 

[Ezekial]

I'm in the same boat, personally I'd like to keep the streak alive and would prefer to make the playoffs. But if we miss I want us to miss bad. Would love a definitive hot or cold streak to begin 2017, enough of this hanging around garbage.

Mantha looks like the kid we thought he could be though and that's awesome.

 

[Dotter]

Not sure if this is the right thread to ask this question,

But where would you all consider Mantha would be picked in a re-draft knowing what we know now?

 

[Claypool]

I just hope we don't draft 10th-14th. Anything else is fine.

Drafting 1-9 doesn't guarantee anything, either. A bust can happen with any pick.

 

[Frk It]

Drafting 1-9 doesn't guarantee anything, either. A bust can happen with any pick.

It doesn't guarantee anything, but statistically/factually speaking your odds are better. Much better.

I'm sure you know that though, so not quite sure what your point is.

 

[Bench]

It doesn't guarantee anything, but statistically/factually speaking your odds are better. Much better.

I'm sure you know that though, so not quite sure what your point is.

And sometimes it's an iron clad guarantee. We all knew Yakupov was a weak #1. But we also all knew McDavid was going to set the league on fire.

If you're drafting #1-5, you're probably getting an amazing player. Your odds of getting an elite player increase if your scouting is a little ahead of the curve, too. We've had faith in our scouting in the 15-30 range, so maybe they could blow it up if we get them more picks inside that top 15?

 

[Bench]

Not sure if this is the right thread to ask this question,

But where would you all consider Mantha would be picked in a re-draft knowing what we know now?

Decided to make a thread about Mantha and include your question:
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?p=126203375#post126203375

 

[Syckle78]

Who really knows. Maybe in a few seasons Larkin and Mantha become superstars and Erik Karlsson wants to join the Red Wings as a free agent. It's not like the East is some scary conference, either. Hell, if Detroit even played average this year they'd comfortably be in a playoff spot. Maybe at the top of their division.

Woohooo Suter plan 2.0!

 

[Bench]

Woohooo Suter plan 2.0!

What's even the connection with the Wings at that point? The Swedish core will be almost entirely gone by the time Karlsson hits UFA in 2019. Unless him and Nyquist are BFF like Parise and Suter, or something.

Suter, meanwhile, actually had some really good family ties with Chelios and such. Wings were always going to be on the table, at the very least.

I see Karlsson is divorced. How can we set him up with a nice Michigan girl?

 

[Syckle78]

Have you seen his gf? Good luck with that angle. Lol We're gonna need a different strategy.

 

[Bench]

Have you seen his gf? Good luck with that angle. Lol We're gonna need a different strategy.

I haven't. But I can imagine millionaire Swedish Jack Sparrow does pretty good.

 

[jkutswings]

Who really knows. Maybe in a few seasons Larkin and Mantha become superstars and Erik Karlsson wants to join the Red Wings as a free agent. It's not like the East is some scary conference, either. Hell, if Detroit even played average this year they'd comfortably be in a playoff spot. Maybe at the top of their division.

Based on where the players you mentioned and this franchise are currently at, I think the odds are better of the Wings winning the draft lottery and acquiring the next stud, rather than Larkin becoming a superstar, let alone Karlsson wanting anything to do with the Wings.

Mantha I can see reaching a great ceiling - still very early, but possible - but I just don't see Dylan's game getting beyond the second line, at least at center. The kid just doesn't even try to fight through enough adversity, whether it's tending to play the perimeter, or acting like a diva when the calls don't go his way, rather than using it to motivate him toward hitting that next gear.

 

[Claypool]

Based on where the players you mentioned and this franchise are currently at, I think the odds are better of the Wings winning the draft lottery and acquiring the next stud, rather than Larkin becoming a superstar, let alone Karlsson wanting anything to do with the Wings.

Mantha I can see reaching a great ceiling - still very early, but possible - but I just don't see Dylan's game getting beyond the second line, at least at center. The kid just doesn't even try to fight through enough adversity, whether it's tending to play the perimeter, or acting like a diva when the calls don't go his way, rather than using it to motivate him toward hitting that next gear.

Put Larkin with Tatar and Zetterberg, and Mantha with Glendening and Jurco and I'm sure you'd be singing a different tune about which player can become a star. Manta is getting the same benefits Larkin got last season playing with Zetterberg. Larkin is trying to learn a new position with awful teammates.

 

[HockeyinHD]

If you're drafting #1-5, you're probably getting an amazing player.

2003: MAF, E. Staal, Horton, Zherdev, Vanek.
2004: Ovechkin, Malkin, Barker, Ladd, Wheeler.
2005: Crosby, Ryan, J. Johnson, Pouliot, Price.
2006: E. Johnson, J. Staal, Toews, Backstrom, Kessel.
2007: Kane, Van Riemsdyk, Turris, Hickey, Alzner.
2008: Stamkos, Doughty, Bogosian, Pietrangelo, L. Schenn.
2009: Tavares, Hedman, Duchesne, Kane, B. Schenn.
2010: Hall, Seguin, Gudbranson, Johansen, Niderreiter.
2011: Nugent-Hopkins, Landeskog, Huberdeau, Larsson, Strome.
2012: Yakupov, Murray, Galenchuk, Reinhart, Reilly.

Is what you just said true even 50% of the time?

Edit: adding a second question.

If I removed just 7 of those 50 players selected from the pool (Ovechkin, Doughty, Crosby, Kane, Towes, Stamkos and Price), would getting any of the other 43 substantially change the nature of the Wings?

 

[minitrucker83]

2003: MAF, E. Staal, Horton, Zherdev, Vanek.
2004: Ovechkin, Malkin, Barker, Ladd, Wheeler.
2005: Crosby, Ryan, J. Johnson, Pouliot, Price.
2006: E. Johnson, J. Staal, Toews, Backstrom, Kessel.
2007: Kane, Van Riemsdyk, Turris, Hickey, Alzner.
2008: Stamkos, Doughty, Bogosian, Pietrangelo, L. Schenn.
2009: Tavares, Hedman, Duchesne, Kane, B. Schenn.
2010: Hall, Seguin, Gudbranson, Johansen, Niderreiter.
2011: Nugent-Hopkins, Landeskog, Huberdeau, Larsson, Strome.
2012: Yakupov, Murray, Galenchuk, Reinhart, Reilly.

Is what you just said true even 50% of the time?

Edit: adding a second question.

If I removed just 7 of those 50 players selected from the pool (Ovechkin, Doughty, Crosby, Kane, Towes, Stamkos and Price), would getting any of the other 43 substantially change the nature of the Wings?

Maybe not amazing but the majority of those players could walk on onto any NHL team and instantly make them a better team.

 

[Bench]

If I removed just 7 of those 50 players selected from the pool (Ovechkin, Doughty, Crosby, Kane, Towes, Stamkos and Price), would getting any of the other 43 substantially change the nature of the Wings?

What if I add 7 players to the list?

Maybe not amazing but the majority of those players could walk on onto any NHL team and instantly make them a better team.

I stand by what I said. I think the majority of those players are amazing NHL players. You don't have to change the fate of an entire **** roster to be a terrific addition. Consistently far better than what the Wings have been drafting.

 

[Syckle78]

2003: MAF, E. Staal, Horton, Zherdev, Vanek.
2004: Ovechkin, Malkin, Barker, Ladd, Wheeler.
2005: Crosby, Ryan, J. Johnson, Pouliot, Price.
2006: E. Johnson, J. Staal, Toews, Backstrom, Kessel.
2007: Kane, Van Riemsdyk, Turris, Hickey, Alzner.
2008: Stamkos, Doughty, Bogosian, Pietrangelo, L. Schenn.
2009: Tavares, Hedman, Duchesne, Kane, B. Schenn.
2010: Hall, Seguin, Gudbranson, Johansen, Niderreiter.
2011: Nugent-Hopkins, Landeskog, Huberdeau, Larsson, Strome.
2012: Yakupov, Murray, Galenchuk, Reinhart, Reilly.

Is what you just said true even 50% of the time?

Edit: adding a second question.

If I removed just 7 of those 50 players selected from the pool (Ovechkin, Doughty, Crosby, Kane, Towes, Stamkos and Price), would getting any of the other 43 substantially change the nature of the Wings?

At thier best or what they are now? At their best, yes,yes they would.

 

[jkutswings]

2003: MAF, E. Staal, Horton, Zherdev, Vanek.
2004: Ovechkin, Malkin, Barker, Ladd, Wheeler.
2005: Crosby, Ryan, J. Johnson, Pouliot, Price.
2006: E. Johnson, J. Staal, Toews, Backstrom, Kessel.
2007: Kane, Van Riemsdyk, Turris, Hickey, Alzner.
2008: Stamkos, Doughty, Bogosian, Pietrangelo, L. Schenn.
2009: Tavares, Hedman, Duchesne, Kane, B. Schenn.
2010: Hall, Seguin, Gudbranson, Johansen, Niderreiter.
2011: Nugent-Hopkins, Landeskog, Huberdeau, Larsson, Strome.
2012: Yakupov, Murray, Galenchuk, Reinhart, Reilly.

Is what you just said true even 50% of the time?

Edit: adding a second question.

If I removed just 7 of those 50 players selected from the pool (Ovechkin, Doughty, Crosby, Kane, Towes, Stamkos and Price), would getting any of the other 43 substantially change the nature of the Wings?

Is it a guarantee? No. But sample 6-10, or 11-15, or any other 5 consecutive picks over the same years, and I'd wager you don't see as many household names.

Building via high draft picks is long odds at winning a championship. Building via lower draft picks is even longer odds. Continuing on their existing path has no chance whatsoever. I'll take the best of the bad options and hope for a successful draft that includes as many ping pong balls as possible.

 

[Pavels Dog]

What have teams had to package with those contracts they want to be rid of to make trades happen? People around here knocked Teravainen as not being that good but he'd be our fifth leading scorer among forwards. Would we be thrilled if we had to move someone like Nyquist with Gator just to get back second and third round picks?

It's all about how desperate you are to move a contract though. Do I see us winning 3 cups in the next couple of years and Larkin/Mantha getting 10 million dollar contracts? Not really. I think by the time our new core starts earning their big payday, guys like Kronner/Howard/Ericsson/Green will be gone, and guys like Abby/Helm/Glendening will be a smaller part of the total cap.

It doesn't guarantee anything, but statistically/factually speaking your odds are better. Much better.

I'm sure you know that though, so not quite sure what your point is.

I think the point is that ultimately it comes down to scouting and drafting. Wings have done very well identifying talent in the 1st and 2nd rounds. There should be some confidence in our ability to find players through the draft even if we don't have top 5 picks, just as long as we're not trading away 1st/2nd round picks or drafting too often in the 21-30 range (which also makes your position throughout the draft worse).
I have no doubt that if we get a top 5 pick we will find a good player. But I'm not sure that player will be substantially enough better than Larkin/Mantha/Svech, especially in this draft, to warrant really chasing that pick.
D-men is what we really need. But what is Juolevi doing this year that Hronek isn't?

Columbus is dominating the league currently. 6th rounder Atkinson lead their team in points. #14 pick Wennberg is 2nd, a very comparable player to Larkin (I think Larkin likely ends up better even).
Foligno is a #28 pick. Saad a 2nd rounder, Gagner is a #6 pick who's always been a disappointment. Seth Jones is a #4 who also hasn't really lived up to potential.
They may be somewhat of an example of what kind of trades you can make when you have some top picks (Johansen for Jones), but who is the superstar of that team? I sincerely hope they win the cup, it would punch some more holes in the glass ceiling of the imagined impossibility of winning without top 3 picks.

I just don't see Dylan's game getting beyond the second line, at least at center. The kid just doesn't even try to fight through enough adversity, whether it's tending to play the perimeter, or acting like a diva when the calls don't go his way, rather than using it to motivate him toward hitting that next gear.

It's so early. So very, very early. And you're talking about a guy that still leads the team in goals and some other metrics. Imagine what happens if he actually tries to fight through adversity? Or if he gets better linemates than Glendening and Sheahan?

Again I'll compare to Columbus. A lot of players on that team looked pretty bad/mediocre. Now Atkinson, Wennberg, Foligno etc. look like stars. Sure, we need to find our Werenski, and we need to find the right coach like the BJs did. But you can't accurately judge the potential of players when the entire team is struggling. Look at what Mantha is doing and imagine him on a team that is dominant in possession, has good puck-moving D, has a top 10 PP.. what kind of numbers could he have?

No one does it by themselves in the game of hockey. When the team gets better as a whole, guys will start looking better individually.

 

[HockeyinHD]

What if I add 7 players to the list?

Then you'd have a 14% chance to land a guy who would change the franchise, around the same of landing a total bust, and a 70ish% chance to land a solid top half of the lineup guy who'd make no appreciable difference.

This is what people are pining for.

I stand by what I said. I think the majority of those players are amazing NHL players. You don't have to change the fate of an entire **** roster to be a terrific addition. Consistently far better than what the Wings have been drafting.

Do you mean to suggest that Detroit hasn't landed as much talent drafting late first than the compilation of every top 5 pick taken between 2003-2012? The devil you say.

I had always thought the whole point of this tanking thing was to rebuild the roster with the notion of being Cup competitive through the draft. Are we now saying that's no longer the point, that all we're really talking about is adding a somewhat better player through the draft than we otherwise might picking later?

What I'm doing here by listing these top 5 picks is showing you guys how unlikely it is to do much, transformationally speaking, even with them. As in, multiples of them. In half of those seasons there wasn't a single elite guy taken top 5. Some good players, sure, but not a single one where if you added them to the Wings today the team is appreciably better.

And it gets worse at 6-10, worse at 11-15, etc. If the point of tanking is to get good enough to win another Cup, but tanking only really results in a 14% chance at landing a cornerstone, is tanking any more reliable of a course than just trying to get generally lucky in the draft while staying sort of competitive? I don't see a whole lot to suggest that's the case.

 

[obey86]

Maybe not amazing but the majority of those players could walk on onto any NHL team and instantly make them a better team.

How much better would the non superstars on that list really make the team?

So the Wings with their top 5 pick add a good player but a non-star, so they go from bottom 5 team in the league to.......back on the playoff bubble? Isnt that what he tanking crowd doesn't want?

 

[obey86]

Then you'd have a 14% chance to land a guy who would change the franchise, around the same of landing a total bust, and a 70ish% chance to land a solid top half of the lineup guy who'd make no appreciable difference.

This is what people are pining for.



Do you mean to suggest that Detroit hasn't landed as much talent drafting late first than the compilation of every top 5 pick taken between 2003-2012? The devil you say.

I had always thought the whole point of this tanking thing was to rebuild the roster with the notion of being Cup competitive through the draft. Are we now saying that's no longer the point, that all we're really talking about is adding a somewhat better player through the draft than we otherwise might picking later?

What I'm doing here by listing these top 5 picks is showing you guys how unlikely it is to do much, transformationally speaking, even with them. As in, multiples of them. In half of those seasons there wasn't a single elite guy taken top 5. Some good players, sure, but not a single one where if you added them to the Wings today the team is appreciably better.

And it gets worse at 6-10, worse at 11-15, etc. If the point of tanking is to get good enough to win another Cup, but tanking only really results in a 14% chance at landing a cornerstone, is tanking any more reliable of a course than just trying to get generally lucky in the draft while staying sort of competitive? I don't see a whole lot to suggest that's the case.

Great point. I agree with you.

 

[HockeyinHD]

Is it a guarantee? No. But sample 6-10, or 11-15, or any other 5 consecutive picks over the same years, and I'd wager you don't see as many household names.

Obviously. My point, as I said above, was that tanking to a top 5 pick isn't a very reliable approach to rebuilding when in order to do that you have to go out of your way to not have surrounding talent.

I'll take the best of the bad options and hope for a successful draft that includes as many ping pong balls as possible.

Sure, but you don't have an actual stake in any of this. If the team stinks for 3+ years oh well, you'll just watch something else or oh well, you'll just go to a few more Tigers games instead of buying a Wings ticket package.

To you, there's no actual downside to a tanking strategy failing because if it does it impacts you in exactly no real ways. Heck, it wouldn't even impact your time here on the boards. You crush the front office now for not tanking and you'd crush the front office then for tanking poorly. From your perspective there is literally nothing but upside to a tanking strategy.

On the other hand, when an organization looks at draft patterns and sees in the best case a 14% chance at landing an elite player and a 50% chance there isn't even one there to land in a given year, it's not hard to suss out why they might think they'd have around that same type of chance to land an elite player via trade or FA if they kept their franchise in such a general condition that the addition of a guy like that would push them over the top instead of being the first step in a long-term floor to ceiling rehabilitation of the entire roster.

And that sets aside the fairly obvious financial implications of a tank with regards to overall franchise value, revenue, etc. The stuff that really actually matters to the people who run the team who have won all kinds of Cups already.

To head the inevitable off at the pass, this isn't me saying 'man, what a great idea the organization has! I'm really looking forward to a mediocre team for another 5+ years!' This is me pointing out reality as I see it and attempting to apply a bit of empathy with regards to how people in those situations might think given some different motivations than I may have.

Heck, I wanted the team to dump out of the playoffs in the Legwand year... but given they got Larkin 15 in the 2014 draft I'm not sure they'd have gotten a better player had they picked someone else 1-14.

 

[InjuredChoker]

2003: MAF, E. Staal, Horton, Zherdev, Vanek.
2004: Ovechkin, Malkin, Barker, Ladd, Wheeler.
2005: Crosby, Ryan, J. Johnson, Pouliot, Price.
2006: E. Johnson, J. Staal, Toews, Backstrom, Kessel.
2007: Kane, Van Riemsdyk, Turris, Hickey, Alzner.
2008: Stamkos, Doughty, Bogosian, Pietrangelo, L. Schenn.
2009: Tavares, Hedman, Duchesne, Kane, B. Schenn.
2010: Hall, Seguin, Gudbranson, Johansen, Niderreiter.
2011: Nugent-Hopkins, Landeskog, Huberdeau, Larsson, Strome.
2012: Yakupov, Murray, Galenchuk, Reinhart, Reilly.

Is what you just said true even 50% of the time?

Edit: adding a second question.

If I removed just 7 of those 50 players selected from the pool (Ovechkin, Doughty, Crosby, Kane, Towes, Stamkos and Price), would getting any of the other 43 substantially change the nature of the Wings?

better add seguin, hedman, tavares, malkin, kessel and bäckström to that list of 7 players since all of them are better than at least one player on that list of 7 you made. malkin is better than 2 or 3 of them.

galchenyuk, hall have solid case too.


i count about 10 guys who at their best wouldn't (too soon to tell on some players and some are past their prime now) the best player on their current wings team.


edit. draisaitl is substantially better than larkin.

On the other hand, when an organization looks at draft patterns and sees in the best case a 14% chance at landing an elite player and a 50% chance there isn't even one there to land in a given year, it's not hard to suss out why they might think they'd have around that same type of chance to land an elite player via trade or FA

assuming the BS that those 7 you mentioned are the only elite players picked in top 5 between that period, then there are NO other elite players in the NHL, except maybe erik karlsson. what do you think the chances of landing erik karlsson are/were? probably heck of a lot less than 14%.