Have people even seen him play ?
It drives me bananas when someone says "nope!" after checking hockey db and looking at his stat line.
I say that he has just as good of a chance as DLR or Andrighetto to make it.
Clearly people who say that he is 2-3 years away have not seen the way that he skates and how big he is. Based on that alone he could make it out of camp.
I've seen him play plenty as London is my adopted OHL team
He is a big guy with a big frame and his stats are misleading, he wasn't playing a big role, this year he will have a better role on the club.
Also in a few threads now I've seen people call McCarron slow. McCarron is NOT slow. If you aren't going to even watch the kid play one OHL game, then don't call him slow. Just because he's big doesn't mean he's slow. (Obviously not directed at you Richie)
Like you said, his size and frame could land him in the NHL sooner, but I'd prefer to give him 1 more season in the OHL and then at least 0.5-2 seasons in the AHL depending on how it goes. I don't think a lot of people realize he isn't physically mature yet, he's big sure, but he needs to bulk up his frame. Once he does that, he's going to be a monster.
So the deal with McCarron is he likely doesn't make it out of camp, but could surprise next year, but likely spends a year in the AHL after this year in the OHL. Of course, you never know. But he reminds of Patch in that he came from the US and while he has size, still needs time and to bulk up. Give him time to get acclimated to Canadian hockey for a bit.
Yeah, it's definitely not THE determining factor and I agree that at any level of hockey coaches go with 'their' guys. McCaron has played with the USNDTP so they know him.
My point wasn't about him being ready for the NHL if he made the wjc team but it's a matter of progress with McCaron. I feel that when we see him in the AHL it will be by default of his age and not because he's ready to progress to the next step. Making team USA tells me that he's better than last year and one of the top 23 players in his country at that level when last year he wasn't a consideration. That is progress.
I mean, he compares himself to Lucic who never made the junior team and had similar junior stats in his first year with big penalty minutes. So who knows.
That's fine too though. Not every development path is the same. I don't have an example off the top of my head, but prospects have gone to the AHL due to age before and actually improved. So players need more time than others, its hard to also say what those kinds of players would have done in their last OHL season had they stayed and not gone to the AHL. They could have improved with time or maybe the AHL could just be the beneficial place for them.
Not everyone is Brendan Gallagher, and that's OK too. I know we all like to laugh about character, but part of having character imo is having a high competitive level and drive to win. I like how we're going for players like that now. These are the kinds of human beings who overachieve. I'm guessing Timmins has more freedom now than ever before, and on top of it with some good minds like MB helping him, they're going to get a lot more picks right imo.
Sometimes in a young player character
is better than natural talent. Some guys end up in the KHL while the character guys may not have played in the NHL yet, but they're about to start great careers. Of course it can happen the other way around too, but point is I trust our scouting staff. If I recall, there was a quote of Timmins saying something to the effect of "McCarron is as safe a pick as you can make".
I take statements like that from TT very seriously.
Actually I did see him play live last year, some of my friends have season knight tickets. He's definitely not making the habs team out of camp next year, he was pretty below average borderline bad last year. Based on size, he will be given a chance, however, his talent will dictate him most likely not sticking at the nhl level. If he was 5'9 180lbs he would never even see the nhl ever let alone get a tryout at camp.
You and your friends aren't NHL scouts though with all due respect. Of course he'd have been drafted lower or wouldn't have gotten much NHL attention if he was 5'9", but that isn't the reality the kid is huge.
Historically, a lot of larger sized players have taken longer to develop and get used to their body, bulk up, etc than traditionally sized hockey players. It isn't an exact science, but this is a sport with a lot of cardio. McCarron is huge and it will take years for his body to develop into an NHL ready machine.
Nothing is ever a guarantee, but basing your opinion of a long term prospect on a season in which he was not even a core player and it was his first season getting used to the CHL is foolish. If he shows zero improvement this coming season I'll admit I'll start to be concerned, but its a long process. If he was going to be in the NHL this season, he'd have been a top 10 pick, not late 1st.