Post-Game Talk: Slow starts, soft goals and poor 5on5 play doom the Oilers

[OfCorsiDid]

Save % + shooting %
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And still didn’t answer my question

It's measured as luck since if you add those stats up for each player that's played in the NHL and averaged them they'd come out close to 1.000.

If he's running an under .800 that's the indication of bad luck, especially if this team is considered "top 5 in the NHL" as everyone is saying.

It also would be bearing in mind that he carried an xGF% of 53% in 4 of his last 6 seasons, including a 61% last year. Now he's cratered to 46%.

So there's a few situations that could've happened:

A. Ryan pulled the wool over everyone's eyes for his whole career and is actually a bad player.
B. He's experiencing bad luck in a bad system.
C. He suddenly decided to become a bad hockey player.
D. The 2020-2021 Calgary Flames are a superior team to these Edmonton Oilers.

So which is it?

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

It's measured as luck since if you add those stats up for each player that's played in the NHL and averaged them they'd come out close to 1.000.

If he's running an under .800 that's the indication of bad luck, especially if this team is considered "top 5 in the NHL" as everyone is saying.

It also would be bearing in mind that he carried an xGF% of 53% in 4 of his last 6 seasons, including a 61% last year. Now he's cratered to 46%.

So there's a few situations that could've happened:

A. Ryan pulled the wool over everyone's eyes for his whole career and is actually a bad player.
B. He's experiencing bad luck in a bad system.
C. He suddenly decided to become a bad hockey player.
D. The 2020-2021 Calgary Flames are a superior team to these Edmonton Oilers.

So which is it?

Notice how good teams like the Caps Jets and Canes have the highest PDO..just getting “lucky”?
And bad teams like the Yotes, Kraken and Hawks have poor PDO…so they’re just “unlucky”?

 

[CupofOil]

With the results being so disastrous year after year, I don't see it being a situation where one player fixes anything.

Ryan was one of the best possession centers in the entire league last year at 61.05 xGF%. He's currently struggling to break 30% since the first four games of the season. I have a hard time believing that's just because Ryan is a year older.

The results have been disastrous for 15 years at 3rd line center. It can't all be the coaches fault.
I like Ryan, really liked the signing, but he's a 4th line center masquerading as a 3rd liner.

With that said, Ryan has never been THIS bad in his career (not even close really) so sure, coaching/system might play a part in it for sure but I will continue to say what I've been saying for years. The Oilers need a REAL 3rd line center.

 

[CupofOil]

As we've established earlier, Tippett's Coyotes made the conference finals on the basis of what can only be described a hockey gods miracle.

Tippett's current system is an abject failure for any depth lines. We could have a line of Pageau, Danault and Gourde and they would still put up a 20% xGF every god damn night. The system doesn't f***ing work.

Sorry but I have to call this out.
What proof do you have that a legit 3rd line center constantly struggles in Tippett's system whether it be here or elsewhere?
Otherwise, this is a fruitless argument that you're presenting. Give me one example, just one.

Just to clarify, I'm aware that Tippett has his issues and I don't see him as the coach to deliver a Cup to Edmonton but my god guys, the amount of Tippett scapegoating going on blaming him for EVERYTHING is out of hand IMO.

 

[Anarchism]

Good thing this is all about entertainment and not necessarily winning.

 

[OfCorsiDid]

Notice how good teams like the Caps Jets and Canes have the highest PDO..just getting “lucky”?
And bad teams like the Yotes, Kraken and Hawks have poor PDO…so they’re just “unlucky”?

Using team PDO is a different thing altogether.

That being said you can often overlay teams with awful PDOs with their CF% and xGF% numbers to see who’s truly unlucky and who’s just plain bad.

I know this doesn’t help my argument about Ryan, but the sample size is too small for an individual player to make a summary judgment on his ability this year. Hence why I applied his career stats which don’t reflect his current stats at all.

 

[OfCorsiDid]

Sorry but I have to call this out.
What proof do you have that a legit 3rd line center constantly struggles in Tippett's system whether it be here or elsewhere?
Otherwise, this is a fruitless argument that you're presenting. Give me one example, just one.

Just to clarify, I'm aware that Tippett has his issues and I don't see him as the coach to deliver a Cup to Edmonton but my god guys, the amount of Tippett scapegoating going on blaming him for EVERYTHING is out of hand IMO.

Holland Aquired Bottom 6 Forward xGF%

	EDM -2	EDM -1	EDM	EDM + 1
Warren Foegele	53	55	43	N/A
Derek Ryan	49	61	46	N/A
Riley Sheahan	47	54	44	N/A
Kyle Turris	51	47	40	35
Devin Shore	46	46	41	33

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So that's 5 players who have all seen their xGF% crater or at a minimum, decrease, since joining the Oilers organization under Holland and Tippett.

So either all 5 were faking to be NHLers for their entire careers before coming to Edmonton or Dave Tippett's system has caused a decline.

Which one is more likely?

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Using team PDO is a different thing altogether.

That being said you can often overlay teams with awful PDOs with their CF% and xGF% numbers to see who’s truly unlucky and who’s just plain bad.

I know this doesn’t help my argument about Ryan, but the sample size is too small for an individual player to make a summary judgment on his ability this year. Hence why I applied his career stats which don’t reflect his current stats at all.

the problem with PDO is assuming that players are taking the exact same shots as previous years, but the puck just isn't going in...same with save%

there's a million reasons why Ryan's shooting % and save % are so poor (coaching, linemates, quality of competition, age, usage, etc...), but attributing it to simply "luck" is far too simple

 

[iCanada]

It's measured as luck since if you add those stats up for each player that's played in the NHL and averaged them they'd come out close to 1.000.

If he's running an under .800 that's the indication of bad luck, especially if this team is considered "top 5 in the NHL" as everyone is saying.

It also would be bearing in mind that he carried an xGF% of 53% in 4 of his last 6 seasons, including a 61% last year. Now he's cratered to 46%.

So there's a few situations that could've happened:

A. Ryan pulled the wool over everyone's eyes for his whole career and is actually a bad player.
B. He's experiencing bad luck in a bad system.
C. He suddenly decided to become a bad hockey player.
D. The 2020-2021 Calgary Flames are a superior team to these Edmonton Oilers.

So which is it?

Eh, PDO isn't totally a measured luck stat.

If you look at all of the best players in the world they've all maintained high PDO's for like a decade. Your Crosby / Ovechkin / Getzlaf / Perry etc.

Flip side is the worst players have low PDOs sometimes because they are terrible.

But in context of PDO history + eye test + shot metrics like xGF%, you can interpret that Ryan has been quite unlucky.

 

[bucks_oil]

Even with a winning record we've seen enough from Smith-Koskinen as a tandem to confirm the worst fears about both of them.

Smith is too old and his body is breaking down.

Koskinen can't stop bleeding soft goals against that deflate the team even if he can also make some big saves at other times.

This tandem is what it is, it's time to stop dreaming that it'll grow into something better. It's not good enough to take the Oilers were they want to go, and frankly it needs to change.

Even Smith ... I think I'm done with him. Last season was great, but we all knew it was kind of a small miracle to have a regular season like that at his advanced age. Pushing it for another year was always playing with fire.

I don't disagree with this.

But I do think we've been getting better goaltending out of Koskinen this year than any of us expected, so perhaps we need to step back from the ledge on the one game he lost for us and take the good with the bad... as you say, it should not be a surprise. (And he did steal the previous game, all stats aside, it was an exceptional performance)

As for Smith... ideally we'd have found a taker for Koskinen this summer and traded everything expendable for an ~NHL ready high-end goalie prospect. Smith would be an exceptional mentor for two years, gradually handing over the mantel (a'la Thomas to Tukka). Unfortunately Holland couldn't make that happen this summer, and Smith will be in no better shape to carry the load next year, which means said prospect will need to be more prove and either much more expensive (or impossible) to acquire, or have lower upside (please no to Georgiev types, but that's what I fear).

Hoping here that Smith comes back and plays well and healthy so that we can at least pretend he's capable of 40 games next year. Then we sign another mentor 1B goalie when Smith retires so that whichever young goalie we are riding has a credible relief valve.

 

[bucks_oil]

It's measured as luck since if you add those stats up for each player that's played in the NHL and averaged them they'd come out close to 1.000.

If he's running an under .800 that's the indication of bad luck, especially if this team is considered "top 5 in the NHL" as everyone is saying.

It also would be bearing in mind that he carried an xGF% of 53% in 4 of his last 6 seasons, including a 61% last year. Now he's cratered to 46%.

So there's a few situations that could've happened:

A. Ryan pulled the wool over everyone's eyes for his whole career and is actually a bad player.
B. He's experiencing bad luck in a bad system.
C. He suddenly decided to become a bad hockey player.
D. The 2020-2021 Calgary Flames are a superior team to these Edmonton Oilers.

So which is it?

I agree with others. PDO is a bogus stat. It tells me we need true statisiticians to come up with hockey stats and the guys that came up with PDO were clearly not that.

What you just described amounts to regression to a mean and assumes that it must occur. Regression to a mean will only occur if all other factors are equal or average out over time. You are calling that luck... the luck being that a players on-ice SPCT will be the reciprocal of their on-ice Shooting Percentage.

If that were true, the only way a team could consistently win is by having more shots than the other team. The only way to win a scoring title would be to have more shots. And elite playmakers wouldn't influence the shooting percentage of their wingers, and yet Patty Maroon tap-ins still exist. And there would be no way to win a Vezina since all goalies would have the same SPCT.

More accurately, PDO is a measure of luck OR skill OR lack thereof.

Thus, it's essentially worthless.

 

[CupofOil]

Holland Aquired Bottom 6 Forward xGF%

	EDM -2	EDM -1	EDM	EDM + 1
Warren Foegele	53	55	43	N/A
Derek Ryan	49	61	46	N/A
Riley Sheahan	47	54	44	N/A
Kyle Turris	51	47	40	35
Devin Shore	46	46	41	33

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So that's 5 players who have all seen their xGF% crater or at a minimum, decrease, since joining the Oilers organization under Holland and Tippett.

So either all 5 were faking to be NHLers for their entire careers before coming to Edmonton or Dave Tippett's system has caused a decline.

Which one is more likely?

Ok but you still didn't answer my question...

What proof do you have that legit 3rd line centers constantly struggle in Tippett's system whether it be here or elsewhere?

 

[iCanada]

Ok but you still didn't answer my question...

What proof do you have that legit 3rd line centers constantly struggle in Tippett's system whether it be here or elsewhere?

Part of it is our team makeup regardless of coach. Very few teams want their stars going power vs power with McDrai. This leads to other teams trying their best to give our 3Cs tough matchups with guys who typically have 60%+ xGF.

Part of it is just relative lack of depth as well. You look at Ryan or even Shore, in Calgary they played with Mangiapane, Backlund, Bennett, Dube etc.

Here they're playing with Turris and Perlini... two guys with a decade of horrendous GF & xGF numbers. Turris did alright for a couple years beside guys like Stone, Duchene, and Pageau... but I think anyone and everyone could see that he wasn't doing the heavy lifting. That's even more evident with Turris getting caved on the Yotes and on Nashville while Stone and Pageau look like world beaters in Vegas and New York.

Is it easier to swim with life preserver floaties on both arms or with weighted bands on both arms?

Ryan himself looked amazing with Kass and Foegele. Bottom 6 was shaken up because our 4th line was getting caved, and now all of them look bad.

Then you add the low sample size and the spotty goaltending and its easy to see why the struggle here.