Sign Gostisbehere Long Term?

[MacDonald4MVP]

We enjoyed services of Couts and Schenner for cheap these past few years, but what good it did for us? We werent contenders and cap savings were wasted on the likes of MacDonald. I'm not saying give every rookie long term deals, but if our window doesn't open for next season or two, why not give him more money now and save when we are poised to make a run at the cup so we can afford depth players and aren't forced to relive horrors of Parent-Krajicek pairing.

 

[CanuckistanFlyerfan]

You didn't answer my question. Have we had a defenseman like this since Howe? He already earned his spot on the team. Now it's business. It's risky for the Flyers to sign a guy with 66 NHL games under his belt to a long-term contract, yes. But you can also use that to your benefit if you're the Flyers. The Stars did and they are sitting pretty right now with Klingberg.

He had one of the best rookie seasons for a defenseman...ever.
http://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...1val=60&threshhold=5&order_by=points_per_game

If you're not sold after that, you never will be.

You didn't answer my question either....have the Flyers had a longterm contract work out since Clarke?

Yes, it's worked out for the Stars. So far...for one whole year. One year.

I know what Ghost did this year...I'm not knocking the player one bit. And as I said, I have no issue paying a player what he's worth. I'm just a little gunshy of longterm contracts by the Flyers after the previous 15 or so ALL backfired on us. Mike Richards was about as solid of a player as you could ask, and a perfect candidate to hand a crapload of guaranteed money to...how'd that work out?

 

[Tripod]

You didn't answer my question either....have the Flyers had a longterm contract work out since Clarke?

Yes, it's worked out for the Stars. So far...for one whole year. One year.

I know what Ghost did this year...I'm not knocking the player one bit. And as I said, I have no issue paying a player what he's worth. I'm just a little gunshy of longterm contracts by the Flyers after the previous 15 or so ALL backfired on us. Mike Richards was about as solid of a player as you could ask, and a perfect candidate to hand a crapload of guaranteed money to...how'd that work out?

It worked out great. We got good years from him then flipped him for Schenn, Simmonds and a 2nd.
Carter got us Voracek, Couts and Cousins.

So 5 of our top 9 came from those guys. Thanks.

 

[Petr Svoboda Mullet]

I would be happy with the Klingberg deal if possible.

I'd give it another half a season. Extend him mid season.

 

[Flyotes]

I don't think it is as much worrying about the risks and failures Flyers have had with long term contracts as it is trying to emulate the Hawks cap and talent success, same with the Kings. At least for me, it is.

Aiming for that sweet spot where they have talented guys on good deals, talented vets, and incoming talented and cost controlled rookies. Ghost would be one of the RFA "beauty" contracts in that formula.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I'm not sure he signs a non-bridge this year for a reasonable number given the potential reward, but I would absolutely give him Klingberg-Reilly money.

Very interested to see the Vatanen terms now.

*Edited to add* Vatanen got 4/19.5 that eats up 2 UFA years. Don't see Gostisbehere coming in under 5 long term. Still would do it.

 

[Random Forest]

I can't wrap my head around the argument that Ghost deserves a bridge deal here.

If he repeats the season he just had, you're probably looking at a 7m AAV on a long-term deal once the bridge is up.

Or we can sign him long-term right now and lock him in at about ~4.5m AAV. Even if he doesn't build upon the season he just had, 4.5m is a manageable cap number even for a PP specialist. There's minimal downside here.

I'd give it another half a season. Extend him mid season.

If Ghost is pacing for 50+ points mid season, then you're not going to get him on those terms. The longer you wait, the higher his AAV goes. I'm willing to bet on Ghost right now.

 

[CanuckistanFlyerfan]

It worked out great. We got good years from him then flipped him for Schenn, Simmonds and a 2nd.
Carter got us Voracek, Couts and Cousins.

So 5 of our top 9 came from those guys. Thanks.

Sure. And we bought out Bryz and Briere. So those worked out. And traded Pronger. So that worked out. And Webers was matched. Dumped Vinnie with a throw-in that cost us our 2nd overall player. So let's just keep repeating failed history in hopes of a different outcome? Maybe THIS time is the charm? Maybe.

The fact is NONE of those previous longterm contracts worked out. We had to get rid of every...single...one of them one way or another.

And someone using the first year of a 7 year contract as an example doesn't exactly seal the deal either.

 

[CanuckistanFlyerfan]

I'd give it another half a season. Extend him mid season.

This at least makes more sense.

 

[Random Forest]

Sure. And we bought out Bryz and Briere. So those worked out. And traded Pronger. So that worked out. And Webers was matched. Dumped Vinnie with a throw-in that cost us our 2nd overall player. So let's just keep repeating failed history in hopes of a different outcome? Maybe THIS time is the charm? Maybe.

The fact is NONE of those previous longterm contracts worked out. We had to get rid of every...single...one of them one way or another.

And someone using the first year of a 7 year contract as an example doesn't exactly seal the deal either.

Comparing Gostisbehere's RFA contract at 23 years old to Bryz, Briere, Lecavalier, etc. is more than a bit off.

Gostisbehere would be 30 when this deal is up. And ~4.5m AAV is much less of the current cap as a percentage than the deals you've cited.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

You didn't answer my question either....have the Flyers had a longterm contract work out since Clarke?

Yes, it's worked out for the Stars. So far...for one whole year. One year.

I know what Ghost did this year...I'm not knocking the player one bit. And as I said, I have no issue paying a player what he's worth. I'm just a little gunshy of longterm contracts by the Flyers after the previous 15 or so ALL backfired on us. Mike Richards was about as solid of a player as you could ask, and a perfect candidate to hand a crapload of guaranteed money to...how'd that work out?

The majority of the contracts you listed wouldn't even be allowed under the current CBA. Richards, Carter, Briere, Bryz, Pronger, etc. all had heavily front loaded contracts with dummy years at the end to drive down the caphit.

Richards contract would have just been finishing up this past season if there was a max term rule set in place & front loaded contracts weren't allowed back when he inked the contract. Not ideal but not nearly as bad as it turned out for LA.

 

[Tripod]

Sure. And we bought out Bryz and Briere. So those worked out. And traded Pronger. So that worked out. And Webers was matched. Dumped Vinnie with a throw-in that cost us our 2nd overall player. So let's just keep repeating failed history in hopes of a different outcome? Maybe THIS time is the charm? Maybe.

The fact is NONE of those previous longterm contracts worked out. We had to get rid of every...single...one of them one way or another.

And someone using the first year of a 7 year contract as an example doesn't exactly seal the deal either.

And how many of Briere, Bryz, Pronger, Weber, and Vinny were 24 years old when given those deals? None.

If you look at my past history, you see I am against giving 30 year olds 4-6 year deals. Hence why I mention trading Simmonds now vs re-signing him at age 30 to a big deal.

But we are talking abut signing a top 4 D ALREADY and #1 PP guy from age 24-30. Vatanen is 25 with a career high 39 points...and just got almost 5 million. If we can sign Ghost for 4-5 million on a long term deal, take it and run. Reap the rewards for years.

Or we can wait and pay him 6-7 million for his 26-32 year old seasons.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Mike Richards was about as solid of a player as you could ask, and a perfect candidate to hand a crapload of guaranteed money to...how'd that work out?

The Richards contract made zero sense from day 1. That's the type of player that doesn't age well. Carter, on the other hand, worked out just fine. 11 years for a 25 year old player who doesn't require top end speed or physicality to be effective.

As LoD said, you have to understand that the dummy years were how things were done at the time. Carter will end up overpaid at the end, but played at a discount for a few years AND they got real value for him before the contract became a negative. Seems to me like that was handled about as well as you could hope.

 

[Tripod]

Odd too that Carter's deal is mentioned. He is still a steal.

And you didn't mention JVR. 6 years at 4.25 million is a steal for a winger who can get 60 points. I guess that didn't fit your narrative.

 

[CanuckistanFlyerfan]

Comparing Gostisbehere's RFA contract at 23 years old to Bryz, Briere, Lecavalier, etc. is more than a bit off.

Gostisbehere would be 30 when this deal is up. And ~4.5m AAV is much less of the current cap as a percentage than the deals you've cited.

True. So compare them to Richards/Carter/Voracek. Richards and Carter were both run out of town. How many on here love Voraceks contract right now?

 

[Random Forest]

True. So compare them to Richards/Carter/Voracek. Richards and Carter were both run out of town. How many on here love Voraceks contract right now?

Carter is more than fine, and is still considered a bargain. I have absolutely no problems with Voracek's contract. And Richards was for 13 years. The max for Ghost would be 8. So your comparisons aren't really proving your point. JVR is another good example. Simmonds as well.

On the flip side, let's talk about PK Subban who could have been signed long term for ~5m AAV... he got a bridge deal instead and Montreal was forced to pay him 9+.

 

[hatcher]

True. So compare them to Richards/Carter/Voracek. Richards and Carter were both run out of town. How many on here love Voraceks contract right now?

no one should. Carter and Richards are big time players compared to v. I like voracek but it's more then just points.

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Sure. And we bought out Bryz and Briere. So those worked out. And traded Pronger. So that worked out. And Webers was matched. Dumped Vinnie with a throw-in that cost us our 2nd overall player. So let's just keep repeating failed history in hopes of a different outcome? Maybe THIS time is the charm? Maybe.

The fact is NONE of those previous longterm contracts worked out. We had to get rid of every...single...one of them one way or another.

And someone using the first year of a 7 year contract as an example doesn't exactly seal the deal either.

I just don't think you can live in fear that, just because we have been burned before, we should never give out a long-term contract. You have to look at things like this on a case-by-case basis.

 

[Tripod]

True. So compare them to Richards/Carter/Voracek. Richards and Carter were both run out of town. How many on here love Voraceks contract right now?

And why are you ignoring JVR's 6 year deal?

 

[CanuckistanFlyerfan]

And how many of Briere, Bryz, Pronger, Weber, and Vinny were 24 years old when given those deals? None.

If you look at my past history, you see I am against giving 30 year olds 4-6 year deals. Hence why I mention trading Simmonds now vs re-signing him at age 30 to a big deal.

But we are talking abut signing a top 4 D ALREADY and #1 PP guy from age 24-30. Vatanen is 25 with a career high 39 points...and just got almost 5 million. If we can sign Ghost for 4-5 million on a long term deal, take it and run. Reap the rewards for years.

Or we can wait and pay him 7 million for his 26-32 year old seasons.

Ghost looks like he's going to be a good player. He probably will be worth more than what those dollars and term are. So was Richards. And Carter. And Voracek. And to a lesser extent, hey, MacDonald looked pretty good for his first 19 games as a Flyer.

 

[CanuckistanFlyerfan]

And why are you ignoring JVR's 6 year deal?

And that was a good signing.

 

[Random Forest]

Oof, now we're citing Andrew MacDonald?

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Odd too that Carter's deal is mentioned. He is still a steal.

And you didn't mention JVR. 6 years at 4.25 million is a steal for a winger who can get 60 points. I guess that didn't fit your narrative.

Or Simmonds. Homer took a bit of a gamble after a career year with him by handing out a six year deal just under $4M in caphit. Simmonds has basically been a boarderline 30 goal scorer (prorating the lockout shortened season) for 3 of the 6 years in that contract so far.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Ghost looks like he's going to be a good player. He probably will be worth more than what those dollars and term are. So was Richards. And Carter. And Voracek. And to a lesser extent, hey, MacDonald looked pretty good for his first 19 games as a Flyer.

You keep saying Richards looked like a good bet when every classic don't give this guy a long-term deal sign was there.

The MacDonald contract actually managed to be a disaster before he signed it, as everyone knew it was coming as soon as the trade broke.

 

[CanuckistanFlyerfan]

I just don't think you can live in fear that, just because we have been burned before, we should never give out a long-term contract. You have to look at things like this on a case-by-case basis.

Not living in fear...just like to see a little more patience. Holmgren was always reactionary. "Hey look...shiny" Throw money at it.

Can we not just wait and see how Ghost looks in his sophmore season? If he comes out like gangbusters again, sure, offer him the deal. If he slumps like so many others before him have, bridge it.