TSN: Siegel: Leafs stand to benefit from new CBA

[Leaf Rocket]

Well I think we have a good shot at getting a few good players out of the whole thing.

If we get one, just one good free agent after a good run, we might be able to get out of this slump as a whole organization. We have a hard working prospect group and as great as talent is needed in an organization, hard work always trumps it. That would also give us great pieces to gamble with.

 

[ForSpareParts*]

Grabo is a "borderline not ideal #2C?"

Really? Are you complaining just to complain?

I don't care for Interactif's Avatar. Why he wants to advertise for a high priced down-filled coat w/ coyote fur is beyond me. That label doesn't need any help when it comes to publicity for their product.

I guess I am complaining just to complain. :/ Sorry.

 

[ForSpareParts*]

If we get one, just one good free agent after a good run, we might be able to get out of this slump as a whole organization. We have a hard working prospect group and as great as talent is needed in an organization, hard work always trumps it. That would also give us great pieces to gamble with.

I'm on your side. I think we need to show the rest of the NHL that we are on the upswing: good goaltending, prospects who are coming into their own, work-ethic, winning culture, etc. I don't know if another year of falling apart will draw the best free agents. We need to come around a little this year. Making the post-season without giving up too much in the process is imperative.

 

[Budsfan]

If we get one, just one good free agent after a good run, we might be able to get out of this slump as a whole organization. We have a hard working prospect group and as great as talent is needed in an organization, hard work always trumps it. That would also give us great pieces to gamble with.

We still have to address IMO, a good big Center and possibly a Goal Tender and both could be available because of the Cap implications next year.

 

[rojac]

so 70.2 to 64.3 is nearly 10 million?

Of course, by claiming that 5.9 million is nearly 10 million, these same people can now claim that Grabo at $5.5M is making nearly 10 million.

 

[Rockinz]

I have said from day 1 that this new CBA will be perfect for the way Burkie does business!

LOVING IT!

 

[TrueBlue86]

I have said from day 1 that this new CBA will be perfect for the way Burkie does business!

LOVING IT!

how so?

the way burke does business is to avoid signing star players and give average or below average players above average contracts

 

[Drew311]

Lupul is as good as gone after this season or the deadline, I don't see him being an asset we can keep at the price he is going to demand, not with Grabo making 5.5M, think Kessel and Lupul want more? You betcha and with their value to the Leafs is more than Grabo so Leafs are in a pickle.

So then the Leafs options are to promote their high end prospects to the first line (which they don't have), or sign free agents to even higher and more ridiculous contract?

Why wouldn't the Leafs just re-sign their current talent?

 

[Anthrax442]

how so?

the way burke does business is to avoid signing star players and give average or below average players above average contracts

You are kidding, right?

 

[ULF_55]

Link: http://www.tsn.ca/toronto/blogs/jonas_siegel/?id=412953

...Read more in the link.

Here is some supporting work done by 4evaBlue ( I think he's a St. Louis Blue's fan ) in the Amnesty Buyout thread:

I haven't been able to find full details of the amnesty buyout program, so I'll be using some assumptions along the way.

What we do know:

• Each team will be able to drop two player off their cap, as long as the contract was signed during the 2005 CBA.
• The team is still responsible for paying that player for the remainder of the contract, it just won't show up on their cap.
• The amnesty buyout still comes out of the PA's share.
• The player will be placed on waivers, allowing other teams to submit contract offers to his agent.
• Should a contract be accepted with a new team, his original team only has to pay the player for the difference between the two contracts (let's call this amnesty portion).

Assumption:

• The amnesty portion should reduce the cap ceiling for every team across the league. I.E: Let's assume Gomez gets "buried" with his $7.3M contract for the last year of his contract, and no other team offers him a new contract. His cap hit of $7.3M would lower the player's share by $7.3M, and it should result in a cap reduction of $7.3M/30 = $243k for each team. Does this make sense?
• These buyouts can only occur for a short period during June, 2013, and cannot be "saved" for B. Richards' twilight years.

Implications:

• Since the team is still on the hook for the player's contract, I don't see this doing much for the poorer teams, unless the player gets another contract to ease the financial sting for the original team. NYI buying out the DiPietro's contract will do nothing for them, as I don't see many teams lining up for his services.
• There may be a few serviceable players getting waived, for whom the Leafs could submit competing offers within the framework of the new CBA. Luongo, Bryzgalov, Lecavalier, etc
• Some teams may be forced to use their amnesty buyout to get under the $60M cap for next season. It's the only reason I see for the Habs not wanting to suck up the last year of Gomez's $7.3M caphit.
• Teams who have the financial backing to pay some of these contracts outside of the cap could potentially trade for some of these bad contracts, and use their amnesty on them, in return for draft picks/other assets

Team | # players signed for '13-'14 | '13-'14 cap hit | Notables not signed for '13-'14 | Amnesty Candidates
Habs|16|$60.2M|Subban|Gomez (1x$7.3M), Kaberle (1x$4.25M)
Bolts|15|$57.5M||Lecavalier (7x$7.7M), Malone (2x$4.5M)
Flyers|16|$57.4M|Timonen|Pronger (4x$4.9M), Bryzgalov (7x$5.6M), Briere (2x$6.5M)
Bruins|16|$57.3M|Rask, Horton, Ference|--
Hawks|17|$57.2M||Frolik (1x$2.3M), Montador (2x$2.7M)
Canucks|13|$55.4M|Edler|Luongo (8x$5.3M), Ballard (2x$4.2M)
Sharks|14|$54.3M|Clowe|--
Pens|15|$52.6M||Martin (2x$5M)
Rangers|16|$51.8M|McDonagh, Stepan|Redden (1x$6.5M)
Wilds|16|$51.1M|Backstrom|Heatley? (1x$7.5M)
Canes|15|$50.7M||--
Sabres|14|$49.6M|Hodgson, Regehr, Leopold|Leino (4x$4.5M)
Kings|13|$49.4M|Gagne, Penner|--
Avs|19|$49.3M|Hejduk|Jones (3x$4M)
Oilers|14|$48.5M|Gagner|Horcoff (2x$5.5M)
Flames|14|$47.9M|Iginla|Stajan (1x$3.5M), Wideman (4x$5.2M)
Preds|13|$45.4M|Hornqvist|--
Wings|15|$45.1M|Howard, Filppula|--
Caps|12|$44.8M||Ward (2x$3M)
Blue Jackets|14|$42.9M||--
Panthers|13|$41.9M|Theodore, Weiss|Jovanovski (2x$4.1M), Campbell (3x$7.1M)
Leafs|13|$41.5M|Lupul|Komisarek? (1x$4.5M)
Sens|13|$39M|Alfredsson|--
Stars|14|$34.1M|Benn, Ryder, Roy, Morrow|--
Jets|9|$33M|Bogosian, Wheeler, Little|--
Yotes|10|$33M|Korpikoski|
Ducks|12|$32.8M|Getzlaf, Perry, Selanne, Koivu|Souray (2x$3.6M), Cogliano (1x$2.4M)
Devils|13|$32.4M|Elias, Zajac, Henrique, Zubrus, Clarkson, Zidlicky|Volchenkov? (3x$4.25M)
Blues|12|$32.1M|McDonald, D'Agostini, Berglund, Stewart, Pietrangelo|--
Isles|12|$31.5M|Bailey, Visnovsky, Streit, Hamonic|DiPietro (8x$4.5M)

Obviously, the welfare / non-cap ceiling teams are in the best position. Chances are, they won't start spending to the cap all of a sudden, so they won't be able to use the new CBA to their advantage (other than making use of the lowered cap floor). The Habs, Flyers, Hawks, Bruins, Canucks, Bolts, and Sharks are in serious trouble. The Leafs, Sens and Jets are in decent position to cash in on some other team's misfortunes.

Any other candidates you guys can think of? Any of them Burke should be going after should they be amnestied? If so, how much would you offer them?

Devils new ownership might have corrected the fortunes of their franchise. Dallas and Coyotes will likely have a new ownership that might want to make a splash out of personal coin, we know the Sens can spend, and the Jets will.

What is important is who teams have to sign, just as much as how much cap space they have. If Malkin is UFA it means a heck of a lot more than if MacArthur is UFA when it comes to cap space.

Detroit has a couple players listed in the chart, but neither are named Datsyuk or Zetterberg.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I see a lot of posts here saying Kessel and Lupul are going to resign, how can you they not? How can Burke not? Why are we going to trade an overpaid borderline #2C?

You guys need to understand simple arithmatic, you also need to understand a GM's thinking if he targets teams under the cap crunch, as next year will when 64M is the ceiling. You need to understand this is a year for a team that wants to make a run for the cup, may take a contract off our books, teams do silly things at the deadline, as Burkie says this is the day GM's make more foolish moves than any other.

Finally, why would Lupul settle for anything less than a Grabo contract considering he is a PPG player, and higher on the food chain than Grabo. Will Burke offer 6M to him? And if he does, then how much does Kessel deserve? 7M+ per. There goes Getzlaf, Perry, or whoever the cap crunchers let go for the Leafs who are in a vulcher's position with Burke's calculated gamble of having cap room for the 13-14 season if we have Grabo at 5.5, Lupul at 6M, Dion at 6.5M and Kessel at 7M. No goalie, or additions. Same lottery team we have seen the past 4 years.

Do the arithmatic, you need to field 20+ players on the roster, all this while still paying Tucker, Armstong, and Komi at 4.5M on the books.

 

[Ari91]

Previous years, the Leafs were spending to the cap and filling up roster spaces with average players. Every season end, we ended up outside of the playoffs and nothing to show for the spending. Finally, we're nearing a point where we will be shedding a lot of salary and just in time for a UFA class that is pretty damn impressive. Based on Burke's rules about not spending past a certain point on one player and not giving anything more than 5 years, I really hope that was all part of some sort of plan. Probably not but I can hope because there are some great names out there this off season and it would be a shame if the only reason we lost out on a quality player is because our GM didn't want to give a 6-7 year contract. With term limits set, I think that it will at least set the precedent for the kind of player that gets those contract terms. Lupul and Gagner aren't likely to get a 6-8 year deal. Perry and Getzlaf will easily fetch those kind of terms.

 

[Drew311]

I see a lot of posts here saying Kessel and Lupul are going to resign, how can you they not? How can Burke not? Why are we going to trade an overpaid borderline #2C?

You guys need to understand simple arithmatic, you also need to understand a GM's thinking if he targets teams under the cap crunch, as next year will when 64M is the ceiling. You need to understand this is a year for a team that wants to make a run for the cup, may take a contract off our books, teams do silly things at the deadline, as Burkie says this is the day GM's make more foolish moves than any other.

Finally, why would Lupul settle for anything less than a Grabo contract considering he is a PPG player, and higher on the food chain than Grabo. Will Burke offer 6M to him? And if he does, then how much does Kessel deserve? 7M+ per. There goes Getzlaf, Perry, or whoever the cap crunchers let go for the Leafs who are in a vulcher's position with Burke's calculated gamble of having cap room for the 13-14 season if we have Grabo at 5.5, Lupul at 6M, Dion at 6.5M and Kessel at 7M. No goalie, or additions. Same lottery team we have seen the past 4 years.

Do the arithmatic, you need to field 20+ players on the roster, all this while still paying Tucker, Armstong, and Komi at 4.5M on the books.

I think you need to do the arithmatic.

So giving Lupul a 1.5 million dollar raise will break the bank? Giving Kessel, our star point per game winger a 2 million dollar raise will handcuff the Leafs going forward?

If you were educated on the topic whatsoever, you would realize that Connolly, Lombardi, MacArthur and Komisarek will all be gone next year. That's approximately 16 million coming off the books.

Are you really going to argue that giving our star players a couple of million dollar raises will somehow cripple the team going forward?

The Leafs will have all kinds of cap space to play with after re-signing Lupul, Kessel and Phaneuf, and will be poised to add more talent in the summer of 2014.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

I think you need to do the arithmatic.

So giving Lupul a 1.5 million dollar raise will break the bank? Giving Kessel, our star point per game winger a 2 million dollar raise will handcuff the Leafs going forward?

If you were educated on the topic whatsoever, you would realize that Connolly, Lombardi, MacArthur and Komisarek will all be gone next year. That's approximately 16 million coming off the books.

Are you really going to argue that giving our star players a couple of million dollar raises will somehow cripple the team going forward?

The Leafs will have all kinds of cap space to play with after re-signing Lupul, Kessel and Phaneuf, and will be poised to add more talent in the summer of 2014.

I don't think you understand how a cap works, there are only so many x dollars to give in the new CBA, you want to reward the players that have contributed to a 25th place finish, and then try to improve the team by signing Getzlaf or Perry for less? Or players of this ilk. Sure we can sign more Connolly's or Lebda's, but has this worked? You clearly do not understand how a team works in a Cap environment.

 

[Leafsman]

Do the arithmatic, you need to field 20+ players on the roster, all this while still paying Tucker, Armstong, and Komi at 4.5M on the books.

This is a question I have??

If a team has no need for the 2 buyouts yet has 2 buyouts on the books; should they not be allowed to have those removed?? I rather just keep Komi another year depending on how he does and have those buyouts voided! Though if Komi really throws up a stinker this year then I guess you'd buy him out and still should have one previous buyout caphit come off the books!

 

[Drew311]

I don't think you understand how a cap works, there are only so many x dollars to give in the new CBA, you want to reward the players that have contributed to a 25th place finish, and then try to improve the team by signing Getzlaf or Perry for less? Or players of this ilk. Sure we can sign more Connolly's or Lebda's, but has this worked? You clearly do not understand how a team works in a Cap environment.

Seeing as you're self-proclaimed cap expert, I would love to see your 5-year plan for the Leafs to implement.

Let me guess, sell off any player making over 3 million dollars just before their contracts are up so we get minimum value for them, then pick first overall for the next 5 seasons?

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Further Drew, even if Lupul and Kessel agree to take the 7M + 6M per home discount adding it to Grabo's overpaid 5.5M and Dion's 6.5

Where do you get the 6M for a #1G and 7M for a #1C?

This and we don't even have a legitimate #2D man to play behind Phaneuf?

You really need to do your homework on how a Cap environment works.

 

[ACC1224]

Further Drew, even if Lupul and Kessel agree to take the 7M + 6M per home discount adding it to Grabo's overpaid 5.5M and Dion's 6.5

Where do you get the 6M for a #1G and 7M for a #1C?

This and we don't even have a legitimate #2D man to play behind Phaneuf?

You really need to do your homework on how a Cap environment works.

That's Burkes job. Our job is to criticize.

 

[Ari91]

After this season, Leafs will have 41.6M locked up. They'll have 22.7M available to lock up 10 roster spots and the option to buyout 2 contracts. Unless Komisarek has an outstanding half season, I don't see him having a future with the Leafs. So take his cap hit off the books and say 27.2M available to fill 11 roster spots. Some of those spots can be filled internally and other players can be resigned to affordable contracts. It should leave room to sign 2-3 big UFAs or if we're resigning Lupul, then 1-2 other big UFAs. Just get creative with the contract - 50% variance is a lot to play with even with terms on contract length.

 

[Drew311]

Further Drew, even if Lupul and Kessel agree to take the 7M + 6M per home discount adding it to Grabo's overpaid 5.5M and Dion's 6.5

Where do you get the 6M for a #1G and 7M for a #1C?

This and we don't even have a legitimate #2D man to play behind Phaneuf?

You really need to do your homework on how a Cap environment works.

I'm still waiting to for your expert opinion on what happens after Lupul, Kessel and Grabovski are traded. You are extrememly quick to critisize, but offer no opinion on how to turn the Leafs into a successful team long term.

Please enlighten us.

 

[The Apologist]

That's what leafs nation has resorted to.
It's pathetic. A whole new low.

Brian Burke has now "succeeded" in the eyes of leaf fans when he simply doesn't "fail".
Not "failing" is the new "success".

"The leafs are only ELEVENTH worst in salary cap going into next season. It's better than being 5th last. Or dead last.
GOOD JOB BURKIE!!!!"

A new low, not just in leaf history, but maybe in human history.

Lol, you always know how to brighten my day.

You're right. He's done nothing right at all, ever, and giving him any credit for anything is obviously unrealistic. Your point of view is much more realistic. May I introduce you to the color grey? It's a wonderful color.

 

[Ari91]

Seeing as you're self-proclaimed cap expert, I would love to see your 5-year plan for the Leafs to implement.

Let me guess, sell off any player making over 3 million dollars just before their contracts are up so we get minimum value for them, then pick first overall for the next 5 seasons?

In fairness, your posts seemed to suggest that Lupul and Kessel should get a raise that's reflected in their cap hit. That's not smart planning for the Leafs especially in Lupul's case. Lupul will be 30 at the end of this year and in maybe 8 NHL seasons has probably only had 1 or 2 seasons that he's played at or close to a full season. I really like Lupul but I wouldn't want to see him on this team if it meant a 6M caphit. I think the best way to work with Lupul's contract is to look at the total money and frontload the contract to ease the caphit. For example, Lupul makes 4.25M each year (there's nothing creative on his contract right now). If you want to give him a raise, then you can give him a 5 year contract structured something like 6,6,4,3.5,2 which gives you a cap hit of 4.3M which is pretty much what he has right now. No way should he be taking up 6M in cap space on the team.

 

[ULF_55]

Here something to chew on:

http://www.capgeek.com/leaders/?type=LENGTH

There are 18 contracts that are greater than 8 years in length.

Yep, 18. That's it out of what, 700+ contracts? A few of these include players who are under 30 years of age.

We aren't talking a huge number of players/teams impacted by these contracts.

 

[Fogelhund]

I don't think you understand how a cap works, there are only so many x dollars to give in the new CBA, you want to reward the players that have contributed to a 25th place finish, and then try to improve the team by signing Getzlaf or Perry for less? Or players of this ilk. Sure we can sign more Connolly's or Lebda's, but has this worked? You clearly do not understand how a team works in a Cap environment.

You do realize that Kessel is signed until 2014/15 right?

Is it your belief that there is no way that the cap can go up, even though it has every year since the last CBA was signed... and the league has a shiny new decent dollar NBC contract...

Grabovski, M. » $5,500,000
Kessel, Phil » $5,400,000
Lupul, Joffrey » $6,000,000
Van Riemsdyk, J. » $4,250,000
Ryan Getzlaf $7,500,000
Leo Komarov $1,200,000
Kulemin, Nikolai » $2,800,000
Kadri, Nazem » EL
$2,000,000
Joe Colborne $1,100,000
McClement, Jay » $1,500,000
Another forward $750,000
Frattin, Matt » $925,000
Brown, Mike » $736,667
Phaneuf, Dion » $6,500,000
Paul Ranger $1,500,000
Liles, J. » $3,875,000
Gunnarsson, Carl » $2,500,000
Gardiner, Jake » EL
$1,116,667
Holzer, Korbinian » $750,000
Morgan Reilly $1,775,000


Roberto Luongo $5,333,333
Scrivens, Ben » $612,500
Armstrong, Colby » $1,000,000
Tucker, Darcy » $1,000,000

$65,624,167

It sure is tight, but it is doable. One amnesty used on Komisarek... Could use next one of Liles if chosen, or Armstrong/Tucker. 13 forwards, 7 D, 2 Goalies.

 

[Ari91]

You do realize that Kessel is signed until 2014/15 right?

Is it your belief that there is no way that the cap can go up, even though it has every year since the last CBA was signed... and the league has a shiny new decent dollar NBC contract...

Grabovski, M. » $5,500,000
Kessel, Phil » $5,400,000
Lupul, Joffrey » $6,000,000
Van Riemsdyk, J. » $4,250,000
Ryan Getzlaf $7,500,000
Leo Komarov $1,200,000
Kulemin, Nikolai » $2,800,000
Kadri, Nazem » EL
$2,000,000
Joe Colborne $1,100,000
McClement, Jay » $1,500,000
Another forward $750,000
Frattin, Matt » $925,000
Brown, Mike » $736,667
Phaneuf, Dion » $6,500,000
Paul Ranger $1,500,000
Liles, J. » $3,875,000
Gunnarsson, Carl » $2,500,000
Gardiner, Jake » EL
$1,116,667
Holzer, Korbinian » $750,000
Morgan Reilly $1,775,000


Roberto Luongo $5,333,333
Scrivens, Ben » $612,500
Armstrong, Colby » $1,000,000
Tucker, Darcy » $1,000,000

$65,624,167

It sure is tight, but it is doable. One amnesty used on Komisarek... Could use next one of Liles if chosen, or Armstrong/Tucker. 13 forwards, 7 D, 2 Goalies.

Forgot about Liles. He's a good candidate to buyout if he doesn't return to his first half season play from last year.