Shero's Drafting Record 2006 - 2010

[Gurglesons]

Of those 4, he didn't sign Muzzin and lost Streit and DJ on waivers leaving only Bort on the roster as his late round picks. That's ****ing terrible.

Why is this part of the judgement if his trades aren't also? Shero maximized the picks he had into two future HHOFs? If you're going to point out that he lost Streit, DJ and Muzzin for nothing, at least point that out as well.

It seems this is just another case of skewing stats in order to paint a person in a negative light, kind of how people point out how Crosby pools numbers against weaker teams.

 

[Winger for Hire]

Different approaches to different teams. San Jose has a great history of drafting. They have zero cups. I would take an aggressive GM with our current roster, over one who thinks drafting will get us somewhere. Our roster is a win now roster.

I'll also go back to my point that the Penguins have never been good at drafting in the entirety of their existence in the NHL. I think you're essentially trying to force a judgement on a team that has never even put a premium on drafting players. Is that an issue? Yes, but to say that it is inherently Shero's fault is a little presumptuous in my opinion. I would put the fault at the foot of our ownership, the same ownership that promotes a former political official to CEO of a hockey team.

I don't see how a franchise's drafting history has anything to do with this.

The Pirates had crap drafts, hired a new GM and tapped into their revenues (much like the Pens did once Sid was drafted and Shero was hired shortly after... and the lockout), but now they're one of the better drafting teams in baseball and have a pretty fully stocked farm system.

I don't see how the Howard Baldwin/Craig Patrick era of the team has anything to do with the Lemieux Group/Shero era. It's not like they hired Shero and told him, "Hey, we've not been good historically in the draft. Just get some trade chips from it".

I would also like to point out that the Sharks were also in a "Win Now" mode... so it would stand to reason they'd have a very similar approach to the Pens in drafting.

The bolded part kind of irks me the wrong way. Drafting will get you somewhere, especially in a capped league. This is were you get the money to spend on keeping superstars, making deadline deals and dabbling in the FA market. Having a good source of ELCs that can contribute, even in the bottom 6/2, gives you room to sign good contracts for established players. Not having to spend $1.2mil on the open market for a 3/4 tweener, or even $900k on the same type.

Sure it's great to have the high octane players who play top 6 on ELCs, but if you can have those guys even filling lesser roles that gives you freedom to fix top 6/4 holes instead of trying to rebuild your bottom 6/2.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

Different approaches to different teams. San Jose has a great history of drafting. They have zero cups. I would take an aggressive GM with our current roster, over one who thinks drafting will get us somewhere. Our roster is a win now roster.

I'll also go back to my point that the Penguins have never been good at drafting in the entirety of their existence in the NHL. I think you're essentially trying to force a judgement on a team that has never even put a premium on drafting players. Is that an issue? Yes, but to say that it is inherently Shero's fault is a little presumptuous in my opinion. I would put the fault at the foot of our ownership, the same ownership that promotes a former political official to CEO of a hockey team.

1 - I already debunked that myth.

2 - Even if it's true, who the **** cares? That doesn't excuse Shero's bad drafting.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

Why is this part of the judgement if his trades aren't also? Shero maximized the picks he had into two future HHOFs? If you're going to point out that he lost Streit, DJ and Muzzin for nothing, at least point that out as well.

It seems this is just another case of skewing stats in order to paint a person in a negative light, kind of how people point out how Crosby pools numbers against weaker teams.

Because it goes into his ability to judge talent. He picked 5 guys and let 4 walk. That's not good.

If you want to start a thread about how awesome his trades were, that's great, but we're talking about drafting here.

 

[Gurglesons]

1 - I already debunked that myth.

2 - Even if it's true, who the **** cares? That doesn't excuse Shero's bad drafting.

You didn't debunk it, you showed like two or three players which is about how much Shero has drafted.

It doesn't excuse Shero's bad drafting, but it shows this is a franchise issue that we still haven't dealt with. This is a more widespread issue than Shero. There are teams like the Canucks and the Penguins that have bad drafting and then there are teams like Detroit and San Jose that have historically been good at it.

I would say it is a mirror of the whole Islanders vs Penguins debacle. This franchise is run by a player that *****ed about physicality in the league and then pretty much cut out the teeth of our team because of an instance in a regular season game. This instance hadn't been corrected until this year.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

You didn't debunk it, you showed like two or three players which is about how much Shero has drafted.

It doesn't excuse Shero's bad drafting, but it shows this is a franchise issue that we still haven't dealt with. This is a more widespread issue than Shero. There are teams like the Canucks and the Penguins that have bad drafting and then there are teams like Detroit and San Jose that have historically been good at it.

I would say it is a mirror of the whole Islanders vs Penguins debacle. This franchise is run by a player that *****ed about physicality in the league and then pretty much cut out the teeth of our team because of an instance in a regular season game. This instance hadn't been corrected until this year.

So, you're basically admitting to not reading anyone's responses to your claims:

I'm calling BS on that as an excuse.

In the 5 years before Shero, Patrick drafted:
2005: Letang 3rd, Vitale 7th round
2004: Goligoski 2nd round, Johnson 3rd round, Kennedy 4th round
2003: Carcillo 3rd round, Bissonnette 4th round, Moulson 9th round
2002: Christensen 3rd round, Talbot 8th round
2001: Surovy 4th round

So Patrick was able to draft at least one 100+ game player in EVERY year prior to Shero taking over and 11 total in those 5 years.

Other than that, the Pens totally haven't been good at drafting.

 

[Winger for Hire]

So you add in an arbitrary condition which makes Shero look worse?

I don't think that's arbitrary. I would wager that every single GM goes into the draft hoping to hit on each and every pick and they play for the team. Their secondary value is most certainly as trade chips, but you're not going to get that by going into a draft deciding between two players at pick #123 and thinking, "Player A has a shot but not a strong skater. Player B has silky hands, but is a trouble maker. Player A will be easier to unload in a trade. GARY! We're going with A. Anyone looking for a strong shooting winger? We just got one!"

 

[Gurglesons]

So, you're basically admitting to not reading anyone's responses to your claims:

Got me. You're right, during Craig Patrick our farm team was a beast.

Just had to wait until he was fired to actually see any of those players play in our line-up........

And you know, outside of the years when we were tanking and collecting picks our drafts suck by your own admission.

It is almost like your team being one of the worst in the league allows you more chances to draft useful players and then when your team is the best in the league, it is really hard to draft players. Who would be defending that point in this thread?

Once again, the issue with judging drafts in a vacuum and simply saying Shero had a terrible record during the years when we were one of the best teams in the league. Not to mention, the one year when we were actually bad we drafted Muzzin and Jeffrey who both have played 100+ games and Bort who is well on his way.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

Got me. You're right, during Craig Patrick our farm team was a beast.

Just had to wait until he was fired to actually see any of those players play in our line-up........

And you know, outside of the years when we were tanking and collecting picks our drafts suck by your own admission.

It is almost like your team being one of the worst in the league allows you more chances to draft useful players and then when your team is the best in the league, it is really hard to draft players. Who would be defending that point in this thread?

Once again, the issue with judging drafts in a vacuum and simply saying Shero had a terrible record during the years when we were one of the best teams in the league. Not to mention, the one year when we were actually bad we drafted Muzzin and Jeffrey who both have played 100+ games and Bort who is well on his way.

So, except for those times when CP was really good at drafting, he was bad at drafting.

Got it!

 

[Riptide]

I get your point, but what is the reason at viewing it this way? Our scouting department was obviously able to find players that other teams valued as assets, if you are able to trade a player like Caputi that has never broken into the league, but still maximize your value aren't you essentially drafting a player that was worth drafting?

The point of the NHL is to maximize your draft picks, if you look at the record through 2006 - 2010, I think it is hard to say Shero didn't maximize his picks into what was a relatively good roster. I think the real issue will be the next couple of years, especially if we lose players like Samuelson for nothing.

Because it's really the only way to measure how successful that pick was. I'm happy that we were able to get value for Esposito. And honestly I have no issues with the Hossa trade. But as a pick itself... Esposito was a bust. Which ultimately means Shero made a poor pick. Fortunately for us, he pawned off that bad pick onto someone else... but that doesn't change the fact that that pick didn't pan out.

 

[Gurglesons]

Because it's really the only way to measure how successful that pick was. I'm happy that we were able to get value for Esposito. And honestly I have no issues with the Hossa trade. But as a pick itself... Esposito was a bust. Which ultimately means Shero made a poor pick. Fortunately for us, he pawned off that bad pick onto someone else... but that doesn't change the fact that that pick didn't pan out.

Every single one of his other first round picks has been seen as a triumph though. GMs are going to miss on first rounders occasionally at least he was able to turn a player like Esposito into Hossa.

 

[Gurglesons]

So, except for those times when CP was really good at drafting, he was bad at drafting.

Got it!

It is easier to be good at drafting when you are trading players for picks and promoting a office that is about drafting rather than one about winning. I don't see how you don't see this.

The only players to play in the NHL after a team went to a Stanley Cup Final between 06-10 taken after the first round and currently in the NHL are Nyquist and Tatar. The only other player is Maxime Macenauer who played 20 games for the Ducks.

Nyquist was taken 121 so every team passed on him numerous times. Tatar picked 60 so every team passed on him twice.

Also, the Red Wings are the best drafting organization in the league. So,

 

[Riptide]

Got me. You're right, during Craig Patrick our farm team was a beast.

Just had to wait until he was fired to actually see any of those players play in our line-up........

And you know, outside of the years when we were tanking and collecting picks our drafts suck by your own admission.

It is almost like your team being one of the worst in the league allows you more chances to draft useful players and then when your team is the best in the league, it is really hard to draft players. Who would be defending that point in this thread?

Once again, the issue with judging drafts in a vacuum and simply saying Shero had a terrible record during the years when we were one of the best teams in the league. Not to mention, the one year when we were actually bad we drafted Muzzin and Jeffrey who both have played 100+ games and Bort who is well on his way.

Except that Detroit was just as good over that time frame and HIT on a lot more players than we did.

 

[Riptide]

Every single one of his other first round picks has been seen as a triumph though. GMs are going to miss on first rounders occasionally at least he was able to turn a player like Esposito into Hossa.

Even though I haven't done the numbers (yet), I'd agree with you here. My issue isn't that he blew it on Espo... but that he statistically blew it on the majority of his later picks. And that he did so on a consistent basis.

Edit. FYI numbers are up for all 30 teams (minus 1st rd picks). See post #3.

 

[Gurglesons]

Except that Detroit was just as good over that time frame and HIT on a lot more players than we did.

Detroit is an anomaly in the NHL. They have the best scouts in the league and it has been that way since the early 90s.

 

[Gurglesons]

Even though I haven't done the numbers (yet), I'd agree with you here. My issue isn't that he blew it on Espo... but that he statistically blew it on the majority of his later picks. And that he did so on a consistent basis.

Edit. FYI numbers are up for all 30 teams (minus 1st rd picks). See post #3.

And I think you have to observe what I said in regards to the post two above. We are in the middle of the drafting pack, but at the same time we had two cup finals, more than anyone else besides Detroit.

Once again, Detroit is anomaly.

Detroit had two players beyond the second round during those two years. We have Hanowski, D'Agostino, and Samuelsson who could all turn out to be decent players.

2010 was really the only brutal year in my mind during this and I would also say that a lot of that is based on how many picks we gave away to win the cup and add players like Leopold and Poni. Terrible decisions in retrospect, but Poni was a player we were all clamoring for at the time.

 

[sf expat71]

Drafting is not just about talent evaluation. Where Shero failed the most was in addressing organizational needs. If you take BPA every time and they all happen to be dmen, you've done a poor job of drafting as you aren't creating the proper prospect depth at every position. That isn't even on the scouts, that's simple draft strategy.

 

[Gurglesons]

Drafting is not just about talent evaluation. Where Shero failed the most was in addressing organizational needs. If you take BPA every time and they all happen to be dmen, you've done a poor job of drafting as you aren't creating the proper prospect depth at every position. That isn't even on the scouts, that's simple draft strategy.

Actually, every GM would tell you that the strategy in any draft is taking BPA. That way you can flip those pieces for necessary pieces. The issue with Shero is he never did that. Orpik, Niskanen, even Letang to an extent should've all been moved when the time was right.

 

[sf expat71]

Actually, every GM would tell you that the strategy in any draft is taking BPA. That way you can flip those pieces for necessary pieces. The issue with Shero is he never did that. Orpik, Niskanen, even Letang to an extent should've all been moved when the time was right.

I would hope they make draft lists that are more tiered than a simple ranking. If two players are of the same tier and of comparable rankings, you should take the organizational need. Depending on trades and FAs is not entirely sound strategy, as trades require a partner and UFAs may not sign with you.

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

Yes Shero drafted his BPA. However, his love for PMDs/USHL guys and hate for Europeans and skilled forwards greatly skewed his perception of who the BPA actually was.

 

[mpp9]

Yes Shero drafted his BPA. However, his love for PMDs/USHL guys and hate for Europeans and skilled forwards greatly skewed his perception of who the BPA actually was.

We still have yet to see his highest draft pick since Staal in the NHL. I'd like to see DP in the NHL before I say Shero didn't pick the BPA. You seem ready to make a judgment before that happens.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I do like that the 1st round is excluded from this. From the 2nd round on every team had a chance to pick every player, so draft position, while not eliminated, is minimized some.

I also think that by keep comparing and throwing out names of guys drafted by teams is doing a disservice to heart of what this data is showing and what (I think) Riptide is trying to show. He's not trying to show that Holland found better players later than Shero. He's trying to show that Shero didn't do a very good job using the draft as the base roster building tool that it is. So he was able to offset some of those mistakes with trades which is awesome, but there's a lot of luck involved in that. You have to have a willing partner, a market for the player, the player has to show some kind of talent, you have to have a team with a need/want for that player. It's not like any bust you're going to find a monster trade to pawn him off in. There needs to be a (somewhat) perfect storm to move those mistakes.

These numbers are showing that even though it's unpredictable, it's not as unpredictable as a lot of you are making it out to be. It may be a small sample size, but there's enough teams getting/finding a ton of NHL value to at least lead me to believe it's not the crap shoot it's being portrayed as by some people.

If it was just 1 or 2 teams getting a lot of games out of the draft, sure, then you can say it's really a shot in the dark and maybe UDFAs would be a very good way to go... BUT San Jose, LA, Columbus, the Rangers, Minnesota, Nashville, Toronto, and the Islanders have all be able to amass over 1000 games played by players drafted by them in rounds 2-7. While all those games haven't been accrued on the team that drafted them, the player picked was good enough to get those games in the NHL with some team.

Now imagine if Shero was able to bump up his "Riptide Draft Numbers" with the base he had on the Pens. There wouldn't have been a need for $1.2mil on Payett, $1.1mil on Tanner Glass, $1.05mil on Cal O'Reily, $2mil on Tyler Kennedy, or anything on Craig Adams. Maybe there wouldn't have been a harsh a cap crunch last year and wouldn't have had to maneuver salary just to add a league minimum Kobasew. There's some savings to be had had Shero been able to pluck some usefulness out of the drafts being looked at. **Of course this isn't taking into account how "The Coach Who Shall Not Be Named" would have used those players**

 

[Ragamuffin Gunner]

We still have yet to see his highest draft pick since Staal in the NHL. I'd like to see DP in the NHL before I say Shero didn't pick the BPA. You seem ready to make a judgment before that happens.

And some want to justify the DP so bably that they wont admit that DP has a long way to go to be a better player than Forsberg (BFA) and Truba (BDA).

 

[Gurglesons]

I do like that the 1st round is excluded from this. From the 2nd round on every team had a chance to pick every player, so draft position, while not eliminated, is minimized some.

I also think that by keep comparing and throwing out names of guys drafted by teams is doing a disservice to heart of what this data is showing and what (I think) Riptide is trying to show. He's not trying to show that Holland found better players later than Shero. He's trying to show that Shero didn't do a very good job using the draft as the base roster building tool that it is. So he was able to offset some of those mistakes with trades which is awesome, but there's a lot of luck involved in that. You have to have a willing partner, a market for the player, the player has to show some kind of talent, you have to have a team with a need/want for that player. It's not like any bust you're going to find a monster trade to pawn him off in. There needs to be a (somewhat) perfect storm to move those mistakes.

These numbers are showing that even though it's unpredictable, it's not as unpredictable as a lot of you are making it out to be. It may be a small sample size, but there's enough teams getting/finding a ton of NHL value to at least lead me to believe it's not the crap shoot it's being portrayed as by some people.

If it was just 1 or 2 teams getting a lot of games out of the draft, sure, then you can say it's really a shot in the dark and maybe UDFAs would be a very good way to go... BUT San Jose, LA, Columbus, the Rangers, Minnesota, Nashville, Toronto, and the Islanders have all be able to amass over 1000 games played by players drafted by them in rounds 2-7. While all those games haven't been accrued on the team that drafted them, the player picked was good enough to get those games in the NHL with some team.

Now imagine if Shero was able to bump up his "Riptide Draft Numbers" with the base he had on the Pens. There wouldn't have been a need for $1.2mil on Payett, $1.1mil on Tanner Glass, $1.05mil on Cal O'Reily, $2mil on Tyler Kennedy, or anything on Craig Adams. Maybe there wouldn't have been a harsh a cap crunch last year and wouldn't have had to maneuver salary just to add a league minimum Kobasew. There's some savings to be had had Shero been able to pluck some usefulness out of the drafts being looked at. **Of course this isn't taking into account how "The Coach Who Shall Not Be Named" would have used those players**

One of those teams has a Stanley Cup in the last 20 years. Two of them have Stanley Cup Finals appearances. San Jose is the only one that has been a Stanley Cup Contender during the time allotted in this review. It's great they filled their rosters with draft picks or even used players that played in the NHL as trading partners, but the simple fact is it doesn't really matter who you pick after the 2nd round. All of those teams have also employed players like Glass and Pyatt. I mean we picked Pyatt up off of waivers from NYR. It is trying to look at an aspect of the NHL that isn't as simple as you lead it to be. He made use of pretty much all the draft picks available during this time and did exactly what we wanted with them. Got us to the Stanley Cup Final twice and got us a Cup.

 

[Gurglesons]

And some want to justify the DP so bably that they wont admit that DP has a long way to go to be a better player than Forsberg (BFA) and Truba (BDA).

Trouba and Forsberg could be out of the NHL in a couple of years. You can't judge these types of decisions until at least five years down the rode. Let's also remember that Forsberg was traded for Martin Erat.