Confirmed with Link: Sheldon Keefe extended 2 years

[Gary Nylund]

Name a recent comparable team

Why?

I'm not looking for elite goaltending, hell, I'm looking for a goalie that can at least make a big save when it counts and doesnt give me the Allen Bester special to break the ice in the biggest game of the year. Allen Bester himself was probably cringing at that.

It wasnt just us making the goalies look elite, it was every other team in the playoffs as well. It would be easier if it was just us.

You've already been given examples which you don't accept so what's the point? I think if you were to look at the betting lines for those games, you'd see that we were favourites in every single game and believe me, the oddsmakers are very aware of who's playing and who isn't. We were massive favourites against MTL and we lost. Stop making excuses and own it, it's embarrassing but it isn't the end of the world.

M&M&Hyman had 10 points between them in 7 playoff games so the results really weren't that great. No I'll go even further and say that the results sucked. But whatever, even if they were our best line, so what? They're supposed to be our best line aren't they? Should we pin medals on them for being the best on a massively underperforming team? Is that where we set the bar for those guys - just be better than our other lines and we're good? Really?

This "make a big save when it counts" nonsense is just that, nonsense. So tiring to keep hearing this utterly ridiculous narrative. Here's a newsflash - in the playoffs, every save counts and our goalies made more than enough saves to win.

Our goaltending has put up a .936 and .934 SV% in the playoffs the last two seasons. If you don't think that's good enough then I don't know what else to say to you, I really don't.

 

[Zybalto]

as far as Campbell last year and Andy the year before letting us down , how abut we score a few f***ing goals ? how about our 11m dollar Captain being able to score into an empty net in the deciding game against the Jackets ? and lets stop acting like our goalies haven't won us a game or have a gaa of 5 in the playoffs

Fair enough on the stars finishing chances but just saying that the contrast between the level of goaltending and the run of play has been the most striking aspect of the playoffs for the Leafs lately and I'm not a fan of seeing one side getting outplayed and then praised for their coaching and vice versa.

It's like looking at that game against Arizona recently and thinking man, Tourigny really outcoached Keefe there.

 

[Gary Nylund]

If you badly outplay your opponent and get outgoalied what else are we supposed to call it?

Campbell literally won the "anti-clutch" award for having the lowest high danger save% of any regular keeper in the first round last season after being great with it during the regular season. How do we fix that? He's been mostly great again this year and certainly we should roll with him but all the team can do is play their best and hopefully stay healthy. I really want to see a Leafs goalie outplay the other one. It hasnt happened since Belfour! Jeezus.

You've posted this many times, it's starting to look like you have an agenda here - why are you cherry picking "high danger" chances, what about low danger or medium danger or whatever else? Why ignore the big picture and focus on one place? Makes me wonder about the "other danger" chances, he must have been the best goalie in the 1st round in these other categories by miles to end up with a .934 SV%?

Bottom line - the big picture shows Campbell with a .934 SV% and let's be honest here, that's freaking fantastic and more than good enough to win in the vast majority of cases. And the same applies to Andersen the year before with his .936%, in both years our goalies were among our best players and blaming them for losing is a sick joke.

 

[egd27]

It's hard for people to change their minds on anything right. It's like trying to point out that Hyman/Matthews/Marner were the best regular line in the playoffs on the team in every way including results even when compared with the Galchenyuk/Kerfoot/Nylander....but people still think the opposite and are so entrenched in the stances that even end result numbers wont change their minds.

Understand that's the case in all the xStats, corsi's, chances, etc......how so on results though?

 

[hotpaws]

Fair enough on the stars finishing chances but just saying that the contrast between the level of goaltending and the run of play has been the most striking aspect of the playoffs for the Leafs lately and I'm not a fan of seeing one side getting outplayed and then praised for their coaching and vice versa.

It's like looking at that game against Arizona recently and thinking man, Tourigny really outcoached Keefe there.

only in Leafland do losing coach's get praised , lol

i guess it shouldn't come as surprise since Burke and Dubas got/get praised for accomplishing nothing

 

[Zybalto]

You've already been given examples which you don't accept so what's the point? I think if you were to look at the betting lines for those games, you'd see that we were favourites in every single game and believe me, the oddsmakers are very aware of who's playing and who isn't. We were massive favourites against MTL and we lost. Stop making excuses and own it, it's embarrassing but it isn't the end of the world.

Which recent examples?

The 2 games missed in 3 years for the two Penguins or the Bolts teams missing 1 player their whole run.....and then you give a lecture on acceptance?


You can do better than that.

Just give me real recent comparison. I understand why its so hard. Not many team gets nailed that badly on their key players. Taking the top 6 fowards and top 4 D as the most important position players and thats 4/10 compromised including your top 2 centers. 25% of your top line players.

I just want anything near a realistic comparison. I mean any team in the first round in recent times.

M&M&Hyman had 10 points between them in 7 playoff games so the results really weren't that great. No I'll go even further and say that the results sucked. But whatever, even if they were our best line, so what? They're supposed to be our best line aren't they? Should we pin medals on them for being the best on a massively underperforming team? Is that where we set the bar for those guys - just be better than our other lines and we're good? Really?

We shouldnt pin medals on them but we should at least acknowledge the good and the bad. They were bad on the PP plain and simple and they have made changes this season that look like have fixed the issue. 5v5 that line was pretty damn good overall and played better than their opponents pretty much up to par with their regular season results.


As far as making excuses goes, we lost because of a crappy PP, poor finishing/great opposition goaltending, getting whacked hard with injuries and our own goaltending failing down the stretch. Those are actually the reasons. It's not excuses........have we fixed those iisues moving forward is the real question.

Whats messed up about that is the only one thats even really in our control is fixing the PP (which has obviously worked so far this season)

The rest of those things are.....

 

[Zybalto]

only Leafland do losing coach's get praised , lol

i guess it shouldn't come as surprise since Burke and Dubas got/get praised for accomplishing nothing

Last seasons Adams winner beat out the 2nd and 3rd place guys by losing in the 2nd round instead of the 1st round like the other two nominees.

The guy who won the GM of the year award the last two years has literally drove his team off a cliff. (would anyone replace their lineup with theirs?)

 

[hotpaws]

Last seasons Adams winner beat out the 2nd and 3rd place guys by losing in the 2nd round instead of the 1st round like the other two nominees.

The guy who won the GM of the year award the last two years has literally drove his team off a cliff. (would anyone replace their lineup with theirs?)

don't understand what that has to do with my post but i'll repeat , coach's/mgmt that continuously lose find themselves unemployed

 

[Gary Nylund]

Which recent examples?

The 2 games missed in 3 years for the two Penguins or the Bolts teams missing 1 player their whole run.....and then you give a lecture on acceptance?

You can do better than that.

Just give me real recent comparison. I understand why its so hard. Not many team gets nailed that badly on their key players. Taking the top 6 fowards and top 4 D as the most important position players and thats 4/10 compromised including your top 2 centers. 25% of your top line players.

I just want anything near a realistic comparison. I mean any team in the first round in recent times.

We shouldnt pin medals on them but we should at least acknowledge the good and the bad. They were bad on the PP plain and simple and they have made changes this season that look like have fixed the issue. 5v5 that line was pretty damn good overall and played better than their opponents pretty much up to par with their regular season results.

As far as making excuses goes, we lost because of a crappy PP, poor finishing/great opposition goaltending, getting whacked hard with injuries and our own goaltending failing down the stretch. Those are actually the reasons. It's not excuses........have we fixed those iisues moving forward is the real question.

Whats messed up about that is the only one thats even really in our control is fixing the PP (which has obviously worked so far this season)

The rest of those things are.....

You were already given Stamkos, that wasn't good enough for you. PIT also won a cup without their #1 Dman, we can't even win one round.

Think about that for a moment, PIT won 4 playoff rounds without their #1 Dman against increasingly tough opposition and we can't ... even ... win ... one ... round.

You also ignored my main point which is that no matter who was injured and who wasn't, we were massive favourites to win and we choked. Brother Zeke is maybe the biggest homer here and even he called our loss to MTL the worst loss in franchise history and called our players were choking dogs. Keep making excuses if it makes you feel better, I'd rather just accept the failure for what it is, it just feels more honest somehow.

 

[Zybalto]

Understand that's the case in all the xStats, corsi's, chances, etc......how so on results though?

Matthews line:
3-1 goal differential

Kerfoot line:
3-2 goal differential

I know that the Matthews line played bigger minutes and certainly should have scored more goals looking at the chances but even stretching things out to more balanced 6-4 goal differential to try and match minutes you have to remember that the Habs are a very top-heavy team and Matthews was going up against the best of them.

Not saying either of these lines were bad either......but if you have these top two lines having positive goal differentials, how did the team do past that?

Seeing how Perry and Staal were near the top of the scoring charts for the Habs and Mikheyev and Engvall have combined for 1 point over the last 12 playoff games, I think we may be too focused at the top TBH.

 

[Zybalto]

don't understand what that has to do with my post but i'll repeat , coach's/mgmt that continuously lose find themselves unemployed

or nominated for the coach of the year right? That was my point. 2/3 of the guys were first round losers and the other lost in the 2nd.

 

[Zybalto]

You were already given Stamkos, that wasn't good enough for you. PIT also won a cup without their #1 Dman, we can't even win one round.

Think about that for a moment, PIT won 4 playoff rounds without their #1 Dman against increasingly tough opposition and we can't ... even ... win ... one ... round.

You also ignored my main point which is that no matter who was injured and who wasn't, we were massive favourites to win and we choked. Brother Zeke is maybe the biggest homer here and even he called our loss to MTL the worst loss in franchise history and called our players were choking dogs. Keep making excuses if it makes you feel better, I'd rather just accept the failure for what it is, it just feels more honest somehow.

I'm not ignoring anything, just pointing out you are continually giving me one guy.

and not ignoring we choked. It's OK to say we got wrecked by injuries too.

 

[hotpaws]

or nominated for the coach of the year right? That was my point. 2/3 of the guys were first round losers and the other lost in the 2nd.

regular season awards won't save your job if you continuously lose early in the playoffs

 

[ToneDog]

Last seasons Adams winner beat out the 2nd and 3rd place guys by losing in the 2nd round instead of the 1st round like the other two nominees.

The guy who won the GM of the year award the last two years has literally drove his team off a cliff. (would anyone replace their lineup with theirs?)

The Isles were screwed the moment the season started because they had no home rink and then were forced to play while COVID ran it's course through the team. The Leafs' games were cancelled when COVID hit the team. But yeah, the B2B GM of the Year drove them off a cliff.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Matthews line:
3-1 goal differential

Kerfoot line:
3-2 goal differential

I know that the Matthews line played bigger minutes and certainly should have scored more goals looking at the chances but even stretching things out to more balanced 6-4 goal differential to try and match minutes you have to remember that the Habs are a very top-heavy team and Matthews was going up against the best of them.

Honestly, +1 goal differential over 7 games is a huge disappointment. Also this top-heavy argument seems just wrong. How about this, add up the combined cap hits of M&M&Hyman, then add up the salaries of the guys they were up against, co a comparison and maybe think again about which is the top-heavy side in this scenario.

I'm not ignoring anything, just pointing out you are continually giving me one guy.

and not ignoring we choked. It's OK to say we got wrecked by injuries too.

Please explain. I feel like I'm constantly saying that losing is a team effort and there is plenty of blame to go around whereas if anything, you are continually giving me one guy (the goalie).

 

[Gary Nylund]

I'm not ignoring anything, just pointing out you are continually giving me one guy.

and not ignoring we choked. It's OK to say we got wrecked by injuries too.

It's OK to point to injuries as a factor. Wrecked is a huge overstatement though IMHO and when you're favourites in every single game even with the injuries, it's no excuse for losing 4 out of 7.

 

[zeke]

Matthews line:
3-1 goal differential

Kerfoot line:
3-2 goal differential

I know that the Matthews line played bigger minutes and certainly should have scored more goals looking at the chances but even stretching things out to more balanced 6-4 goal differential to try and match minutes you have to remember that the Habs are a very top-heavy team and Matthews was going up against the best of them.

Not saying either of these lines were bad either......but if you have these top two lines having positive goal differentials, how did the team do past that?

Seeing how Perry and Staal were near the top of the scoring charts for the Habs and Mikheyev and Engvall have combined for 1 point over the last 12 playoff games, I think we may be too focused at the top TBH.

Even Strength Scoring last 2 playoffs

Matthews/Marner/Tavares 30gms, 4gls/14pts
Nylander/Hyman/Kapanen/Foligno 33gms, 7gls/16pts
Kerfoot/Mikheyev/Robertson/Johnsson/Galchenyuk 35gms, 3gls/12pts
Spezza/Simmonds/Thornton/Engvall/Clifford 41gms, 3gls/6pts

 

[Zybalto]

Honestly, +1 goal differential over 7 games is a huge disappointment. Also this top-heavy argument seems just wrong. How about this, add up the combined cap hits of M&M&Hyman, then add up the salaries of the guys they were up against, co a comparison and maybe think again about which is the top-heavy side in this scenario.



Please explain. I feel like I'm constantly saying that losing is a team effort and there is plenty of blame to go around whereas if anything, you are continually giving me one guy (the goalie).

The +2 5v5 goal differential the Matthews line had matches.........the +2 goal differential they had during the regular season. So overall effectiveness from that line was exactly the same despite finishing issues. It's why I put more emphasis on the PP as a failure of the top players. Matthews line may have had finishing even 5v5 but the overall game was so strong they were still able to completely shut down one of the best two way lines in hockey.

The reason I think the injuries hurt so badly is that it puts pressure on bottom lines and D to carry more of the load. Muzzin out put more responsibility on Sandin/Dermott and Tavares/Foligno out/hurt put more responsibility on depth forwards. If we don't have the injuries, do we lose those last 3 games? I know who made the big mistakes. Just something to think about is all.

When it comes to the goalie, can a Leafs goalie please just steal a game for us for once? Especially seeing as we have been the better team more often than not.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

Seeing how Perry and Staal were near the top of the scoring charts for the Habs and Mikheyev and Engvall have combined for 1 point over the last 12 playoff games, I think we may be too focused at the top TBH.

Finally some common ground for us.

However prior to this season Habs had the best bottom 6 in the league. They were relatively inverse top heavy. Their top 6 wasn't as good as the top teams top 6, but their bottom 6 was better. The game score values for their bottom 6 was off the charts compared to everyone else for a brief period there. This also explains why the top line skated circles around their top lines but our depth got smashed by their depth. I don't think the advanced stats prove our depth got walked but anyone who watched the games knows our depth wasn't as good as theirs.

Not many people know this but Habs were actually among the best 5v5 teams in the league from 2019-2021. Combine that with our lack of finish and no power play goals, and it suddenly doesn't feel too shocking why we lost. Forget the Habs, if you go up against any team that is decent 5v5 and your powerplay disappears, your odds of winning decreases significantly.

 

[Zybalto]

Even Strength Scoring last 2 playoffs

Matthews/Marner/Tavares 30gms, 4gls/14pts
Nylander/Hyman/Kapanen/Foligno 33gms, 7gls/16pts
Kerfoot/Mikheyev/Robertson/Johnsson/Galchenyuk 35gms, 3gls/12pts
Spezza/Simmonds/Thornton/Engvall/Clifford 41gms, 3gls/6pts

Now do defense too. I know you like goal differential so don't go just Macro with it.

 

[Gabriel426]

I think this is where context comes into play, like Islanders started the year with 13 road games, thats pretty much starting the first month of the season on the road. I don't think any teams could have a good record if they started the season that way.
As for Keefe, he failed to adjust in both playoffs, or he didn't win with his gambles. And thats what happened. It is only a good and successful decision or gamble if the team win in the playoffs. If Dubas trade AM at the TDL and Leafs ends up winning the Cup, Dubas made the right decision. Like when the Wings in the 90s, at one TDL, they only got Maltby and fans were mad but they won that year and I think Bowman explained that Maltby was the missing piece or something. Look at Nurse with the Raptors, he employed zone defense where even High School coaches don't use any more, but Raptors won that game and people were raving what a genius move. He followed up with calling a timeout in Game 5 while during a Raptors run that could tie or win the game, Raptors lost that game and people said Nurse was stupid. But at the end, Raptors won and Nurse is great again.

As long as the team Wins the Cup, any decisions made are great decisions. But if the team loses, any decisions made are up for debate. Takes the Leafs PP. If they managed to score on PP and won the series, we will be saying it was good move by Keefe and company to stick with it instead of changing and causing more confusion for the boys.

At the end of the day, team success in the playoffs trumps all. We can go on forever about who played great and who choked or Leafs were goalied....the fact is that Leafs can't score when it matters the most. When you look at the last 5 elimination games(2 against BJs and 3 against the Habs). They only led the game ONCE and thats Game 4 against BJs when they scored in OT. In other words, they never held any leads in the past 5 elimination games. Thats a huge problem.

Some can continue to take comfort in advance stats but the only stats that matters in the playoffs is the W and in order to get the W, any teams need to score ONE more goal than the other team.

 

[zeke]

Some can continue to take comfort in advance stats but the only stats that matters in the playoffs is the W and in order to get the W, any teams need to score ONE more goal than the other team.

Lucky Habs fans!

 

[Zybalto]

Finally some common ground for us.

However prior to this season Habs had the best bottom 6 in the league. They were relatively inverse top heavy. Their top 6 wasn't as good as the top teams top 6, but their bottom 6 was better. The game score values for their bottom 6 was off the charts compared to everyone else for a brief period there. This also explains why the top line skated circles around their top lines but our depth got smashed by their depth. I don't think the advanced stats prove our depth got walked but anyone who watched the games knows our depth wasn't as good as theirs.

Not many people know this but Habs were actually among the best 5v5 teams in the league from 2019-2021. Combine that with our lack of finish and no power play goals, and it suddenly doesn't feel too shocking why we lost. Forget the Habs, if you go up against any team that is decent 5v5 and your powerplay disappears, your odds of winning decreases significantly.

Not quite true I don't think. They have been an awesome 5v5 team but you aren't giving their top line enough credit.

Without going through the numbers again, just check the link here and check for the top lines from last year:

NHL Lines Advanced Stats

It's what was so exciting going into the series. A battle of two of the best lines in hockey....and disappointing in that the Habs line got absolutely wrecked all series by Matthews. Thats a line that had a 60% GF% in the regular season and close to that the rest of the playoffs, not against the Leafs. Letting Danault go will go down with the greatest blunders of any GM in recent history. Up there with Devon Toews for 2nd rounders (Sorry, couldnt resist another shot at the "greatest GM ever")

The lack of finish extended to every team that played the Habs in the postseason as well. I don't think Price gets enough credit.

The real consensus is that the PP sucked and it's really the only thing that isn't really subjective in this debate. Do you think the PP looks better and ready to go this playoffs?

 

[Gabriel426]

The +2 5v5 goal differential the Matthews line had matches.........the +2 goal differential they had during the regular season. So overall effectiveness from that line was exactly the same despite finishing issues. It's why I put more emphasis on the PP as a failure of the top players. Matthews line may have had finishing even 5v5 but the overall game was so strong they were still able to completely shut down one of the best two way lines in hockey.

The reason I think the injuries hurt so badly is that it puts pressure on bottom lines and D to carry more of the load. Muzzin out put more responsibility on Sandin/Dermott and Tavares/Foligno out/hurt put more responsibility on depth forwards. If we don't have the injuries, do we lose those last 3 games? I know who made the big mistakes. Just something to think about is all.

When it comes to the goalie, can a Leafs goalie please just steal a game for us for once? Especially seeing as we have been the better team more often than not.

Leafs won THREE games without JT and Nick.
Also scoring 3 goals in a 7 games series is really bad considering one of those players is the reigning Rocket Winner and the other is the First Team NHL All Stars. Muzzin and TJ with no PP time got 3 goals in the same series and in less games played.
Leafs goalie stole games for the Leafs, not every wins in the past year in the playoffs were 5-1. Campbell kept the boys in the game in Game 5 and esp Game 6 against the Habs. Maybe if the the Rocket Winner actually score at his regular season pace and the First team All Star produce at his regular season pace for a change, the Leafs might actually win a round or two. In the last two playoffs, beside Game 4 against BJs, can you really say AM and/or MM singlehandedly won a game for the Leafs in the playoffs?

 

[Gabriel426]

Lucky Habs fans!

Until they play TB, but as Kuch said, they had their Cup celebration after Game 4, lol.