Sheldon Keefe Discussion

[Brobust]

I've listed a bunch of depth players that can take NHL reps just fine. All but Petan have already. I'm not sure what you're expecting for "depth" but all these players have NHL resumes, are absolutely fine to fill in for injury, like I said they can play reliable minutes, many can PK, and some of them even have upside (e.g., Anderson, Robertson).

We have solid forward depth to go along with the excellent top 8/9 that aren't even listed here.

If they can play reliable minutes, why are they being outplayed in about 80% of the games?

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Wonder what the Blackhawks would’ve done with Keith if a pandemic threw the world off kilter for close to a year and made the AHL a non-option.

 

[zeke]

That's not a plan or a process to win the cup. That is simply reacting moment by moment to the only things available to them when they have 4 players taking up too much of the cap and have failed to develop players who came along after Matthews, Marner and Nylander properly.

That is absolutely the plan, and always has been.

Lock in an elite core. Commit nothing to the bottom of the lineup.

Continually fill the bottom of the roster with a pipeline of kids and smart cheap free agent signings. Never need to depend on those types for core positions, only for depth slots. Trade them for more young cheap assets (like Amirov Anderson 1st end pk) when they get too expensive and keep the pipeline of secondary talent flowing nonstop. Rinse, repeat.

The best plan to have under a cap, and a plan we will follow indefinitely.

 

[biotk]

Wonder what the Blackhawks would’ve done with Keith if a pandemic threw the world off kilter for close to a year and made the AHL a non-option.

If there was pandemic in 2003/04 that made the AHL a non-option then Keith would have been in the NHL.

 

[zeke]

Keith didn't make the NHL until age 22.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

If there was pandemic in 2003/04 that made the AHL a non-option then Keith would have been in the NHL.

Probably. That 03/04 Chicago defence was nothing to envy, unlike this years Leafs.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

If they can play reliable minutes, why are they being outplayed in about 80% of the games?

They probably get outplayed because they're depth players.

 

[biotk]

Probably. That 03/04 Chicago defence was nothing to envy, unlike this years Leafs.

View attachment 392226

Their D was bad, but this is about development and doing what is best for a players development.

3 of Chicago's top-4 D on opening night were traded during the season. Keith was in the AHL because they thought playing in that nice stable situation would be better for his long-term development. They were correct, and were wise to also not bring him up later in the season. But, if there was no AHL then the better thing for his long-term development would have been playing in the NHL while they reconfigured the team. Playing him in the NHL that early, and in what would have been a hectic environment would likely not have been as good for his long-term development as what they actually did with him, but if the AHL was not an option then playing in the NHL would have been far better for his long-term development then not playing. Instead of starting in the NHL as #1 D he probably would have started on the third pairing and may have moved up the top-4 by the end of the season. Chicago was always going to do what was the best option for his long-term development and they were richly rewarded for that.

The Leafs had several options for Sandin and Liljegren. The team chose the situation they are in right now with them.

 

[Critical13]

To be fair, Holl went a full year playing a handful of games and recovered well.

I have higher expectations for Sandin. I think sitting him at 20 is a lot different than sitting Holl at 25, if I am being honest.

Also, sitting Holl was one of the dumbest moves by Babcock and should never have any positive spin associated with it lol.

 

[Brobust]

They probably get outplayed because they're depth players.

By that logic, every bottom six in the league is being outplayed. Is this true?

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

Duncan Keith could have made Chicago out of camp his D+2. They sent him down for development. Because they knew that Keith's ceiling was high they wanted to ensure they didn't screw up his development so, like all good developing teams, they refused to use him as injury replacement (and they used a unusually large number of injury replacement Ds that year). The next year he would have been the NHL if there had been an NHL. He was Chicago's #1 D from his first NHL game.

Chicago was going through a lot of uncertainty at the time, and a whole NHL season was lost. Yet they ensured that Keith's long-term development was always the priority. So the opposite of the Leafs' so far.

It has nothing to do with what age a player starts playing NHL games (although, as I have said, Sandin and Liljegren are not young for players drafted in the first 2 rounds who become top-4 D). It has to do with how the team develops them before they get there (poorly in the case of the Leafs with them) and how the team develops them once they get there (poorly in the case of Dermott - and ridiculous in terms of the games Sandin and Liljegren played)

I did you a favour. Here's a half decade worth of NHL d-men selected from where Liljegren was through to the end of the second round so you can have a peek at the development curves. We already know different players have different league eligibilities. Apparently you believe these guys are long in the tooth. The table below includes only d-men who got a decent cup of coffee in the NHL from that range.

For whatever reason it wont let me post the table but 33/36 took 4 or more years, 30/36 took 5 or more years, 22/36 took 6 or more years. These are only the guys who carved out decent careers. Most spent a bunch of time in the AHL, albeit most never got there until year 3.

 

[Menzinger]

Remember when Detroit was all the rage for boxing out their up in-coming prospects due to a strong roster.. Really sucks for Sandin but I'll take having an uncrackable top-6 with good prospects ready to play than just having open spots and hoping those prospects can fill in.

Oh but also, don't get too attached to Sandin by the time the trade deadline comes around, especially if you think this team is adding Coleman/Goodrow type forwards.

Liljegren and Dermott i suspect would get moved before Sandin if it came down to it

 

[biotk]

I did you a favour. Here's a half decade worth of NHL d-men selected from where Liljegren was through to the end of the second round so you can have a peek at the development curves. We already know different players have different league eligibilities. Apparently you believe these guys are long in the tooth. The table below includes only d-men who got a decent cup of coffee in the NHL from that range.

Standby.....table glitch.

I am well aware of how all D drafted in the first 2 rounds do, as I have been collecting that data for years and over a far longer period than half a decade. Among D who become top-4 they are already behind the median in terms of becoming full-time D and getting to the top-4 - and neither are close to being full-time, let alone getting to the top-4. Most of those who get to the top-4 later either went to college, stayed overseas, or are big, physical D who have a tendency to develop more slowly.

Among D who don't do better than becoming bottom pairing or spares, they are doing just fine....which I guess is the goal now....

 

[Menzinger]

All meaningless as usual from you. Toronto traded for Muzzin and Barrie because everyone knew the team's defense was a disaster and needed to be fixed - which is, again, why they have needed to bring in 5 Euro free agents in 5 years, and why they need to sign LHD to play on the right side like Hainsey and Brodie, while pretending that they are going to develop D of their own to play on their offside.

Trading for young D like Sergachev and Girard and then actually doing a good job developing them (as their previous teams were not) is the exact opposite. St Louis is also not a good developing team at this time which is why they are trying to trade Dunn who have developed in the exact same poor - years as a extremely sheltered third pairing D so doesn't progress - method as the Leafs have done with Dermott over the last 3 years. Tampa hasn't successfully drafted and developed a D since Hedman and Gudas over a decade ago, but instead have traded away those prospects and acquired some young D who were a better fit for what their team needed. And Montreal has not been good at developing D for years, but hopefully they have turned a corner with Romanov. And Not bothering to develop D is fine and a perfectly good strategy that many teams have used very successfully - if you trade away your D prospects for other assets - which is exactly what I have advocated Toronto do. Only in Toronto does the fanbase pretend that the team is great at developing D when they are clearly terrible.

Hainsey didn't block anyone. And there's not a team that would pass on signing a guy like Brodie out of fear of blocking development.

The ithjbg here is I think you're being too absolutist with how your framing this issue. The fact is, if there was an active AHL season at the moment there would be way less pressure on guys supposed lack of icetime. Yes thr Leafs historically have been pretty terrible at prospect development -but what happened under previous GMs has zero barring on the current front office.

Dermott hasn't developed quite as expected due to several injuries and some inconsistent performance on his part. Liljegren and Sandin are still earlyish in their development cycles.

And sometimes prospects go through booms and sometimes they just flop without any real influence from their teams

 

[biotk]

The ithjbg here is I think you're being too absolutist with how your framing this issue. The fact is, if there was an active AHL season at the moment there would be way less pressure on guys supposed lack of icetime. Yes thr Leafs historically have been pretty terrible at prospect development -but what happened under previous GMs has zero barring on the current front office.

Dermott hasn't developed quite as expected due to several injuries and some inconsistent performance on his part. Liljegren and Sandin are still earlyish in their development cycles.

And sometimes prospects go through booms and sometimes they just flop without any real influence from their teams

Caring about development was only ok with previous GMs.
Bad development during covid or the months before covid doesn't count...because....reasons.
Dermott didn't develop but its his fault.
Sandin and Liljegren are early in their development curves when we just completely make those up to suite our interests.

 

[Menzinger]

Caring about development was only ok with previous GMs.
Bad development during covid or the months before covid doesn't count...because....reasons.
Dermott didn't develop but its his fault.
Sandin and Liljegren are early in their development curves when we just completely make those up to suite our interests.

I think its fair to care and critique the teams development process. I think you're just being too extreme in this case.

Its not as if there a ton of guys from either Liljegren and Sandins draft classes who have leapfrogged them. Yes, their still early in that cycle for each guy.

It seems strange that you seem to think development is 100% due to external influences (ie the team). Injuries derailing a career happen with every sport (always has been the case and always will be). And let's face it, most 2nd round picks taken at the NHL draftbend up falling well short of reaching their potential ceilings and its hardly beacuse in every single case they've been let down by their teams

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

By that logic, every bottom six in the league is being outplayed. Is this true?

Most are, and those that aren’t probably don’t have a top 6 as good as ours. Or like they have some good U25 prospects breaking out at the right time or something.

It doesn’t take away from the fact that we have good depth. Heck we have 2 U25 prospects who have a good chance to break out in the next few seasons, potentially this season.

 

[biotk]

I think its fair to care and critique the teams development process. I think you're just being too extreme in this case.

I think when you have a team that has a long history of being terrible at development, and the new GM, who acknowledges that long history of bad development, says that the team will ONLY (emphasis his) bring young prospects into NHL games when they are certain they will be permanent players from that time onward and then does the exact opposite with all three of his top prospects, then I think that should be the only response.

The evidence is pretty strong that this management group is not putting the interests of those prospects first, but instead are only interested in the short term interests of the team - which means having them available to cover for injuries, while missing better development opportunities. That doesn't seem to be change at all from the long history of being terrible at development.

Its not as if there a ton of guys from either Liljegren and Sandins draft classes who have leapfrogged them. Yes, their still early in that cycle for each guy.

Most players don't make it. Most players drafted in the first two rounds don't make it, so there is no benefit in comparing them to their draft class. If you were to look at, say the 5 D drafted in a row where Liljegren was drafted - Foote, Brannstrom, Valimaki, Liljegren, Vaakanainen - you would only expect one to become a successful top-4 with a lengthy NHL career, another to become a journeyman #4-6 player with a decent career, and the other 3 to become no more than injury replacement players, with one of those three spending a year or two where they are a #6.

That is why developing in ways that increase your odds is so important.

It seems strange that you seem to think development is 100% due to external influences (ie the team). Injuries derailing a career happen with every sport (always has been the case and always will be). And let's face it, most 2nd round picks taken at the NHL draftbend up falling well short of reaching their potential ceilings and its hardly beacuse in every single case they've been let down by their teams

I don't think that development is 100% due to the team. I do think that is the part they have complete control over. If a team with the resources that Toronto has, with a GM who has talked about how to develop properly, and the responsibility teams have to do what is right for their prospects because they have control over that development process, I don't think that there is any excuses.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

I think its fair to care and critique the teams development process. I think you're just being too extreme in this case.

Its not as if there a ton of guys from either Liljegren and Sandins draft classes who have leapfrogged them. Yes, their still early in that cycle for each guy.

It seems strange that you seem to think development is 100% due to external influences (ie the team). Injuries derailing a career happen with every sport (always has been the case and always will be). And let's face it, most 2nd round picks taken at the NHL draftbend up falling well short of reaching their potential ceilings and its hardly beacuse in every single case they've been let down by their teams

It’s even stranger to think that we’ve seen enough from Dubas and Keefe to know they can’t develop defensemen.

 

[Brobust]

Most are, and those that aren’t probably don’t have a top 6 as good as ours. Or like they have some good U25 prospects breaking out at the right time or something.

It doesn’t take away from the fact that we have good depth. Heck we have 2 U25 prospects who have a good chance to break out in the next few seasons, potentially this season.

Every good team generally has a good bottom six.

Montreal has Kotkaniemi, Toffoli, Lehkonen and Byron in their bottom 6.
Calgary has Backlund, Bennett and Derek Ryan.
I could go on. Look at Vegas, Tampa, Philadelphia, Carolina etc.

 

[zeke]

Every good team generally has a good bottom six.

Montreal has Kotkaniemi, Toffoli, Lehkonen and Byron in their bottom 6.
Calgary has Backlund, Bennett and Derek Ryan.
I could go on. Look at Vegas, Tampa, Philadelphia, Carolina etc.

I lol every time somebody lists those flames guys as "good depth players".

Anyways, Leafs have kerfoot mikheyev Robertson Engvall Spezza simmonds in their bottom 6.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Every good team generally has a good bottom six.

Montreal has Kotkaniemi, Toffoli, Lehkonen and Byron in their bottom 6.
Calgary has Backlund, Bennett and Derek Ryan.
I could go on. Look at Vegas, Tampa, Philadelphia, Carolina etc.

And like I said in most cases our top 6 is better. In some of the examples you brought up by a substantial margin.

I’m not sure what you have against a bunch of depth pieces who are new to this team that didn’t have exhibition games and are getting blended each game. There’s only one bottom 6 line that has played more than 10 minutes 5v5 together (10.1 mins, and xgf%-wise they’ve been our best), and you think they should be ripping up the division?

We have more NHL-caliber players in our bottom 6 then we have spots. The players are a mix of serviceable NHLers that like I said can play up and down the line up and kill penalties, a few have actually looked pretty good (spezza, boyd, thornton), some are younger wild cards (robertson, anderson, barabanov, brooks), and some are known quantities that can at the least fill sheltered minutes reliably (engvall, vesey, petan)

If this isn’t good depth then I think you just have unrealistic expectations. I think at the least it deserves more time to judge given how many new faces are there and lack of exhibition games.

 

[Rants Mulliniks]

I am well aware of how all D drafted in the first 2 rounds do, as I have been collecting that data for years and over a far longer period than half a decade. Among D who become top-4 they are already behind the median in terms of becoming full-time D and getting to the top-4 - and neither are close to being full-time, let alone getting to the top-4. Most of those who get to the top-4 later either went to college, stayed overseas, or are big, physical D who have a tendency to develop more slowly.

Among D who don't do better than becoming bottom pairing or spares, they are doing just fine....which I guess is the goal now....

You said guys in that range rarely spend time in the AHL.. Most of them do, they just don't get there until around their third season. Our two were able to get there early. Over a 5 year stretch, of all the guys who had decent careers, 33/36 took 4 or more years to make the show, 30/36 took 5 or more years to make the show and 22/36 took 6 or more years to make the show. Most spent a bunch of time in the A or bouncing back and forth. If 33/36 took 4 or more years, is it not reasonable to suggest there's no need to panic? Those guys also didn't deal with two interrupted COVID seasons.

Now I get wanting them to get regular minutes somewhere but that's hard to get anywhere.....something none of those past guys were faced with.

 

[RogerR]

Every good team generally has a good bottom six.

Montreal has Kotkaniemi, Toffoli, Lehkonen and Byron in their bottom 6.
Calgary has Backlund, Bennett and Derek Ryan.
I could go on. Look at Vegas, Tampa, Philadelphia, Carolina etc.

Vegas has a crappy top 6 though. Those aren't centres of a contender

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Every good team generally has a good bottom six.

Montreal has Kotkaniemi, Toffoli, Lehkonen and Byron in their bottom 6.
Calgary has Backlund, Bennett and Derek Ryan.
I could go on. Look at Vegas, Tampa, Philadelphia, Carolina etc.

- montreals leading scorer and 6th highest scorer in their bottom 6 eh. Interesting, lets wait for everyone’s shooting percentage to come back to earth and see if you want to drool over them

- cgy backlund+bennett around 40-45% CF%, outmatched
- tampa maroon-stephens-volkov 19% CF% oof. Maroon-stephens-joseph 38%, maroon-joseph-volkov 45%. All outmatched, often substantially.
- philly raffl-laughton-AK 38%, farabee-hayes-voracek 40%, hmm caved in

I dunno, if half of your examples of shining bottom 6’s have been outmatched, then maybe i am right.

- tor vesey-kerfoot-simmonds 50%, engvall-spezza-barabanov 50%

Seems fine