Player Discussion Shea Weber - Man Mountain or Gentle Giant? Edition

[BadHabit]

Did the trade fill a gap in this team which has led them to be in a better position to win the cup?

Quoted again in this thread for a second time, because NO ONE who thinks we won this trade can answer this simple question and back it up with a sane argument.

Please... answer the question people. Forget about PK. Did Weber fill a gap this team had which puts them in a better position to win the cup since last year? Or was it 1 step forward for a few goals and marginally better defensive awareness, and 5 steps back in offensive prowess?

I'm waiting...

 

[M.C.G. 31]

I will keep bringing it up. All those seasons with PK and what did he deliver?

Last season was less than ideal and we finished near the bottom. This season is less than ideal and we have a shot at the playoffs and more. Both seasons with sub par goaltending.

PK is gone. Permanent. History. Hockey goes on.

Norris trophy, routinely being our best and most clutch player when we were in the playoffs, one of the top defensemen? You make it sound like Subban was the only one on our team and since you will keep bringing that up, I will keep bringing up that Pacioretty, Galchenyuk, Plekanec, Markov, Gallagher, etc. were on those same teams.

Yeah, he is gone, and we're worse because of it.

If this were true then Nashville should be a better team than last year. They're not. Mind explaining your "Subban, who is undoubtedly better than Weber". What criteria are you using?

Nashville was 41-27-14 last season and 29-21-11 (69 pts) up to this point last season.

They're 29-22-9 this season (67 pts) while missing Subban for 16 games, Josi for 9 games and Ellis for 8 games. This, also, while Rinne is at his inconsistent best.

Um... no? I'd like to know where you get your Donald Trump style "alternative facts" from. Your numbers are off.

From here:

Shea Weber is at 2.25GA/60 this year in all scenarios. PK is at 2.91 with a leaky sieve in nets. Last year Weber was at 2.97GA/60 with Nashville. Last year, PK with scrubs in the net was at 2.81GA/60.

The Price Vezina year in which you say Subban only was at 2.3GA/60 he:

1. Played the most of any player on the Habs. Period. 2,148 mins and 40 seconds. Averaged 26.12 mins a game.
2. Had 2.29 GA/60, which led team for all d man, and tied with Tom Gilbert who played 10 games and 800 mins less.
3. Over the same period, had a 3.38 GF/60, which also led the team for all D man.

You have to go back to 2011 to get Weber similar numbers for GF (where he had 3.59), and that was the only year in his career that was close. Finally, since 2010 with Weber playing 443 games and PK playing 432...

Weber - 2.53 GA/60, PK - 2.41 GA/60
Weber - 3.07 GF/60, PK - 3.31 GF/60

We can quote stats all day, and it's been done time and time again by various sources showing PK has better stats for the most part, but the fact is...

The Habs are not a better team with Shea Weber, the defense is arguably worse and definitely older/less mobile and lacks a PMD.

Yeah but something millennials and spin-o-ramas...

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

Um... no? I'd like to know where you get your Donald Trump style "alternative facts" from. Your numbers are off.

No, they're not. You simply chose a site that gives all situations instead of just even strength. I used hockeyreference. Check it out for yourself, or change the sliders on your site instead.

Here's PK's "leaky sieve" this year, btw:
23W 15L 6OT 2.48 GAA 0.916 SV%

And here's Weber's "healthy Price" this year:
25W 16L 5OT 2.43 GAA 0.918 SV%

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

We should just sticky this. I am expecting replies aimed at "millenials, hollywood, leadership, intangibles staredowns, Team Canada, Paid Analysts etc.."

And coaches, GMs, players, too. But forget about them. Random guy who tunes in once in a while who subscribes to an internet provider has better answers.

 

[E82]

And coaches, GMs, players, too. But forget about them. Random guy who tunes in once in a while who subscribes to an internet provider has better answers.

Yeah lol

 

[The Nightman]

Weber is tired and probably injured. Haven'tcha heard?

Bodes extremely well being in the midst of a tense playoff battle and hopefully heading into the playoffs. The wheels have come off!

 

[BadHabit]

No, they're not. You simply chose a site that gives all situations instead of just even strength. I used hockeyreference. Check it out for yourself, or change the sliders on your site instead.

Of course, silly me. Why would I want to compare players in all scenarios when I could pick and choose the subset of stats that supports my argument?

If your goalie stats are verified and not only collected on Tuesday's during a harvest moon while Therrien wears a purple tie and Bergevin's beard is at stage 3 scruffiness, then I stand corrected on that point.

 

[Teufelsdreck]

Where would the PP be without Weber?

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

Of course, silly me. Why would I want to compare players in all scenarios when I could pick and choose the subset of stats that supports my argument?

Because ES numbers encompass a larger portion of any game or stretches of games, are less volatile over time than the smaller sample provided by a phase of play that is biased towards offense to begin with?

If your goalie stats are verified...

They are, but you're free to check for yourself.

 

[Habs Icing]

Nashville was 41-27-14 last season and 29-21-11 (69 pts) up to this point last season.

They're 29-22-9 this season (67 pts) while missing Subban for 16 games, Josi for 9 games and Ellis for 8 games. This, also, while Rinne is at his inconsistent best.

I guess last year the Preds had no injuries yet their record was basically the same as this year.

So what you're saying is that PK has made no difference to the team.

 

[E82]

I guess last year the Preds had no injuries yet their record was basically the same as this year.

So what you're saying is that PK has made no difference to the team.

Or that they don't miss Weber. The real difference will be measured in the post season if they make it.

 

[BadHabit]

Because ES numbers encompass a larger portion of any game or stretches of games, are less volatile over time than the smaller sample provided by a phase of play that is biased towards offense to begin with?



They are, but you're free to check for yourself.

There is no logic in your statement. The last I checked, players don't just play 5v5 in a game, they play in all scenarios. That includes on the PK and PP as well. To get the full picture of how a player affects their team - especially in the case of which stats you are using AND the fact they are both #1 D men - you should look at the whole picture and not just a piece of it.

"Volatile" or not, you are comparing apples to apples... it doesn't matter. If you don't understand that logic, then I'm not sure what to say.

Again I ask... Did Weber fill a gap this team had which puts them in a better position to win the cup since last year?

8 pages, and no reply.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

There is no logic in your statement. The last I checked, players don't just play 5v5 in a game, they play in all scenarios. That includes on the PK and PP as well. To get the full picture of how a player affects their team - especially in the case of which stats you are using AND the fact they are both #1 D men - you should look at the whole picture and not just a piece of it.

"Volatile" or not, you are comparing apples to apples... it doesn't matter. If you don't understand that logic, then I'm not sure what to say.

Oh, I understand. What I'm having a hard time understanding is how I'm supposed to look at 2.91 GA/60 and conclude that's better than 2.25, or how that's more useful than the ES numbers that show a similar amount of separation defensively anyway. I mean, how much does it change if we lay out the details?

1.5 GA/60 ES (1149 mins, 74% of total TOI) + 7.9 GA/60 SH (198 mins, 13% of total)
vs
2.7 GA/60 ES (857 mins, 80% of total) + 7.4 GA/60 SH (98 mins, 9% of total)

Now, you tell me, where is the biggest and therefore most demonstrative gap between those defensive numbers, the 74-80% of the game played at ES or the 9-13% played on the PK? Noticing, btw, that Weber has played twice as much on the PK compared to Subban, but not nearly twice the number of ES minutes. So guess what, the ES numbers are probably better for comparison on that basis alone. But thanks for arguing?

 

[Andrei79]

I like Weber, a lot, have defended him and was with him for the first few weeks.

But let's be honest here, MB got fleeced big time. He made a huge error with the bridge deal and proved himself an imbecile traded our best player. Scratch that, we didn't need those moves to know he's an imbecile.

 

[V13]

But this team issues have never been defence related. Offense has always been the issue, not leadership and character and defense.

Agreed

Especially at center. When was the last time the Habs had a PPG elite #1 center ?

When was the last time the Habs had a forward who finished in top 10...hell even top 20 scoring ?

It's been a loooooog time. Kovalev with his 84opts but other than that ?

This team has been built around goalies and defensive systems for too long. From Theodore to Huet to Halak to Price.....

Habs need some elite talent upfront. It's as simple as that

 

[70Stang]

more like "man mountain of ****"

 

[BadHabit]

Oh, I understand. What I'm having a hard time understanding is how I'm supposed to look at 2.91 GA/60 and conclude that's better than 2.25, or how that's more useful than the ES numbers that show a similar amount of separation defensively anyway. I mean, how much does it change if we lay out the details?

1.5 GA/60 ES (1149 mins, 74% of total TOI) + 7.9 GA/60 SH (198 mins, 13% of total)
vs
2.7 GA/60 ES (857 mins, 80% of total) + 7.4 GA/60 SH (98 mins, 9% of total)

Now, you tell me, where is the biggest and therefore most demonstrative gap between those defensive numbers, the 74-80% of the game played at ES or the 9-13% played on the PK? Noticing, btw, that Weber has played twice as much on the PK compared to Subban, but not nearly twice the number of ES minutes. So guess what, the ES numbers are probably better for comparison on that basis alone. But thanks for arguing?

Look, you can slice the numbers any way you want to support your argument. This season PK has not been great defensively so far "5v5" - fine. I still contend you play 60 mins in a game at least, and that special teams, no matter how long of the game you play on them, matter. This is especially true when games are tight, scoring is down, and the best teams PPs score between 25-30% of the time. As another poster mentioned here, goals matter.

The crux of the argument is my question which you refuse to answer, and is based on this Shea Weber thread.

"Did the trade fill a gap in this team which has led them to be in a better position to win the cup?"

To be marginally better defensively 5v5 while we already have the best goalie in the world, is not worth what we lost in offensive power and determination - in my opinion.

 

[c3z4r]

I will keep bringing it up. All those seasons with PK and what did he deliver?

Last season was less than ideal and we finished near the bottom. This season is less than ideal and we have a shot at the playoffs and more. Both seasons with sub par goaltending.

PK is gone. Permanent. History. Hockey goes on.

Last season

This season

Those numbers don't look even even remotely similar. If anything, this season we're getting average goaltending (Price is tied for 15th in Save percentage for the season.)

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

Look, you can slice the numbers any way you want to support your argument...

That's because they support my argument no matter which way you slice them... We're better defensively with Weber, and thus (in theory) less susceptible in the long run to the ebbs and flows of offensive production. Such is the reality of playing in a 2.77 goals for per game NHL. I'm actually surprised that Weber has as many points as he does this year, given Emelin (0 goals, 12 points last year, lol) as a full time partner instead of, say, Markov.

 

[CristianoRonaldo]

Um... no? I'd like to know where you get your Donald Trump style "alternative facts" from. Your numbers are off.

From here:

Shea Weber is at 2.25GA/60 this year in all scenarios. PK is at 2.91 with a leaky sieve in nets. Last year Weber was at 2.97GA/60 with Nashville. Last year, PK with scrubs in the net was at 2.81GA/60.

The Price Vezina year in which you say Subban only was at 2.3GA/60 he:

1. Played the most of any player on the Habs. Period. 2,148 mins and 40 seconds. Averaged 26.12 mins a game.
2. Had 2.29 GA/60, which led team for all d man, and tied with Tom Gilbert who played 10 games and 800 mins less.
3. Over the same period, had a 3.38 GF/60, which also led the team for all D man.

You have to go back to 2011 to get Weber similar numbers for GF (where he had 3.59), and that was the only year in his career that was close. Finally, since 2010 with Weber playing 443 games and PK playing 432...

Weber - 2.53 GA/60, PK - 2.41 GA/60
Weber - 3.07 GF/60, PK - 3.31 GF/60

We can quote stats all day, and it's been done time and time again by various sources showing PK has better stats for the most part, but the fact is...

The Habs are not a better team with Shea Weber, the defense is arguably worse and definitely older/less mobile and lacks a PMD.

But but Weber is 10X better than Subban at defense

Last year Josi(the great defensive player) had a better GA/60 stats than the great Weber.

 

[Toene]

That's because they support my argument no matter which way you slice them... We're better defensively with Weber, and thus (in theory) less susceptible in the long run to the ebbs and flows of offensive production. Such is the reality of playing in a 2.77 goals for per game NHL. I'm actually surprised that Weber has as many points as he does this year, given Emelin (0 goals, 12 points last year, lol) as a full time partner instead of, say, Markov.

It remains disingenuous to use the only time Subban has missed time due to a serious injury as a sample. In the AG you said we should give some time to Galchenyuk so he can heal and so we can evaluate his game properly, but you wont do that for PK...?

If you use the last 5 seasons before this, PK blows Weber out of the water ainec.

 

[BadHabit]

That's because they support my argument no matter which way you slice them... We're better defensively with Weber, and thus (in theory) less susceptible in the long run to the ebbs and flows of offensive production. Such is the reality of playing in a 2.77 goals for per game NHL. I'm actually surprised that Weber has as many points as he does this year, given Emelin (0 goals, 12 points last year, lol) as a full time partner instead of, say, Markov.

...and yet the question still goes unanswered. Your silence says volumes.

By the way, if you want to have a discussion and use some real stats like Corsi or Fenwick, let me know.

 

[mariolemieux66]

I would take Subba over Weber anytime. Subban was made for Montreal and and vice versa. Bergevin and Therrien ****ed that up big time.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

It remains disingenuous to use the only time Subban has missed time due to a serious injury as a sample. In the AG you said we should give some time to Galchenyuk so he can heal and so we can evaluate his game properly, but you wont do that for PK...?

In theory, you're probably right. In reality, though, PK's numbers since coming back from injury actually improve his overall numbers/rates in many ways. 10 pts in 15 is better than the 17 in 29 before. Being +6 in those 15 games is better than the -11 in the previous 29. Etc. But he hasn't been scoring goals, if anyone has tunnel vision for goals in particular. But to address your point, in this case it actually makes PK look slightly better if we use his overall numbers instead of just pre-injury ones. Factoring in that he joined a new team to start the year, I figure his overall numbers are about as fair as you can get while being as lazy as the next guy when it comes to actually checking the math first.

If you use the last 5 seasons before this, PK blows Weber out of the water ainec.

Maybe.

 

[peate]

I would take Subba over Weber anytime. Subban was made for Montreal and and vice versa. Bergevin and Therrien ****ed that up big time.

Same. I gotta give credit to Weber for his shot though, but he's a big oaf with little mobility, no breakout speed and doesn't use his size advantage like he should.