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Prospect Info: Sharks Prospect Info & Discussion Thread XVIII

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jMoneyBrah

jMoneyBrah

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Mattb124 said:
Funny that you left out Mario Ferraro who was in the same draft class as Norris. I wonder why? Fun fact: he has played more NHL games than any other 2nd round pick from 2017.

One also needs to look at this analysis with the lense that it takes 3-4 years on average for draftees to make the NHL, so there has not been enough time passed to fully evaluate Jr's work.

That said, every player on your "bust" list save for Hamaliuk has played in the NHL which calls into question your use of the word. Not to mention, half the players on your list are late round picks (Chemelevski 6th, Leonard 6th, Checkhovic 7th) that you would expect to bust (31% and 26% chance of playing an NHL game, respectively). To that end, the fact that they were able to get a cup of coffee in the NHL inside that 3-4 year window is more a credit to Jr's drafting than a criticism. Chekhovick is an interesting case study, as even though he is no longer Sharks property he is carving out a nice KHL career for himself.

Weatherby (4th round, 2018) has become an NHL regular. It is looking like another late round pick. Hatakka (6th round, 2019) will have an NHL career as well given his performance to date.

I think there is reason for optimism with the current prospect pool and credit should be given for finding talent in the later rounds of the draft.
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Great points here. Knocking Jr for late round picks, and not crediting him for Ferraro seems disingenuous. Also disingenuous: dragging Jr. and scouting for “misses” like Chemelevski, Leonard, and Checkovich, while finding a way to knock them for Norris being more than he was projected. They drafted him, he is what he is, they get credit for it.

I think Merkley showed enough in his call up that if the Sharks didn’t have Burns and Karlsson (who make him a bit redundant) AND some long term unmovable contracts at the bottom of the defense corps (Vlasic and Simek) he’d be in the NHL right now. Would he be a top offensive Dman across the league? Probably not. But he looks AT LEAST on par with someone like Victor Mete (faint praise, but an NHL player nonetheless).

As far as I’m concerned anything after the second round is impossible to bust. The odds of finding NHL players in the later rounds is so low that as long as a team is reaping the occasional 13th forward or 7th defenseman from that group you are treading water. If you’re finding bottom six/pairing players there you’re doing well. And if you land a top 6/4 then you’re playing with house money.

What I find as encouraging shift from Burke to Jr is Jr seems to be prioritizing taking some swings at players that have top 6/4 upside throughout the draft - where Burke seemingly prioritized players with a bottom 6/pairing floor. Time will tell which reaps the most benefit to the org, but this fan is pleased at the adjustment.
 
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OrrNumber4

OrrNumber4

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Hodge said:
Nah. If you're not a NHL regular by 21-22 years old the odds are stacked against you ever becoming a significant player.
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By the same token, making the NHL at 18/19/20 is a very good sign of you becoming a significant player. Yet you're not nearly sanguine enough on players like Hatakka and Eklund.
 
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Pinkfloyd

Pinkfloyd

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Hodge said:
Ferraro was a good pick. He's also been one of the worst defensemen in the NHL this season so I wouldn't call it a home run. He's a solid 4/5 defenseman being given way more responsibility than he's capable of because Doug Wilson has built such a horrible and expensive blueline.

Playing NHL games doesn't necessarily make a pick successful. Petrecki, Goldobin and Mueller all played NHL games too. Leonard and Chmelevski are old enough that if they were going to make it as anything more than replacement level call-ups they would have shown more by now. Merkley is also getting to that point. Chekhovich is gone and isn't even having a great season in the KHL compared to last year. Weatherby and Hatakka are being force fed NHL minutes out of desperation but it's clear based on the eye test and the numbers that they are both better suited for the AHL.

If anything Jr.'s picks have had the "advantage" of the Sharks roster being capped out and lacking any semblance of depth the last three years making it far easier for some of these marginal prospects to get playing time. That doesn't mean they belong in the NHL or will carve out real careers.
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This sort of looking to take the worst possible slant on everything because you want to be right, including shifting standards to suit that purpose, pretty much kills whatever credibility you think you have. You're not even trying to be objective and honestly a lot of this comes off as bitching for the sake of bitching.
 
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Hodge

Hodge

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OrrNumber4 said:
By the same token, making the NHL at 18/19/20 is a very good sign of you becoming a significant player. Yet you're not nearly sanguine enough on players like Hatakka and Eklund.
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Hatakka has looked horrible every time they put him in the lineup. I've always said Eklund is going to be a great player and my point this whole time has been that the Sharks need more high draft picks to get more Eklunds if they ever want to win a Cup. They're simply never going to get there with the other prospects currently in their system no matter how much fans want to hype them up.
 
themelkman

themelkman

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Hodge said:
Hatakka has looked horrible every time they put him in the lineup. I've always said Eklund is going to be a great player and my point this whole time has been that the Sharks need more high draft picks to get more Eklunds if they ever want to win a Cup. They're simply never going to get there with the other prospects currently in their system no matter how much fans want to hype them up.
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You realize you have Pavelski as your profile picture right? Doesnt that break your narrative that guys who arent top 10 are worthless?
 
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Gecklund

Gecklund

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Hodge said:
Just saying his first three drafts are starting to look like they might produce 3 NHLers max which is in line with the Burke years. And one of them is Weatherby who is terrible and could easily go the way of Gambrell over the next few seasons.
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Weatherby was a 4th round pick. To get a 4C out of that is great. Gambrell was a 2nd round pick. Should be higher expectations than 4C.
 

Mattb124

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Hodge said:
Nah. If you're not a NHL regular by 21-22 years old the odds are stacked against you ever becoming a significant player.
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We all know the Merkley has had a storied development path, even you.
 
matt trick

matt trick

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Hodge said:
Hatakka has looked horrible every time they put him in the lineup. I've always said Eklund is going to be a great player and my point this whole time has been that the Sharks need more high draft picks to get more Eklunds if they ever want to win a Cup. They're simply never going to get there with the other prospects currently in their system no matter how much fans want to hype them up.
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I agree with you SJ needs more elite talent- probably two additional Eklund level prospects, but three would be ideal. Above all they need a franchise center or D-man, and a Eklund caliber prospect at the other spot. I wanted the team to tank, so they could get one of those players this draft.

That said, beyond those two players, they need lots of middle of the line-up guys. I feel decently confident that Merkley, Kniazev, Bordeleau, Robbins, Coe, Wiesblatt, and boom/busts like Gushchin will be able to fill in 3-4 top 4/top 6 spots in the line-up, and some of the others will help add other depth.

Similarly, the additions of Barbanov, Balcers, and Dahlen for nothing are positive in that they are adequate top 9 guys for free.

It wasn’t that long ago guys like Sgarbossa were among our top 5 prospects.
 
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Gecklund

Gecklund

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If we assume Bordeleau signs his ELC this season and doesn’t go back to college (pretty safe assumption), we will have 6/9 from the 2020 draft going pro by next season (Wiesblatt, Bordeleau, Robins, Gushchin, Coe, Raska). The ones that didn’t go pro yet (Young, Spitserov, Oberg) were all 7th round picks. I’d be kind of surprised if Spitserov gets a contract at this point but obviously still early. Young has moderately good production in college but I doubt he leaves early. Oberg is playing in the SHL and I don’t know what his contract looks like there. High possibility he never comes over but he’s the one I see with the most potential right now.
 
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tealzamboni

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matt trick said:
I agree with you SJ needs more elite talent- probably two additional Eklund level prospects, but three would be ideal. Above all they need a franchise center or D-man, and a Eklund caliber prospect at the other spot. I wanted the team to tank, so they could get one of those players this draft.

That said, beyond those two players, they need lots of middle of the line-up guys. I feel decently confident that Merkley, Kniazev, Bordeleau, Robbins, Coe, Wiesblatt, and boom/busts like Gushchin will be able to fill in 3-4 top 4/top 6 spots in the line-up, and some of the others will help add other depth.

Similarly, the additions of Barbanov, Balcers, and Dahlen for nothing are positive in that they are adequate top 9 guys for free.

It wasn’t that long ago guys like Sgarbossa were among our top 5 prospects.
Click to expand...


How to Sharks: :sarcasm:

F, type 1 = star passer
F, type 2 = C that tips pucks
F, type 3 = rambos to the net
F, type 4 = sniper (preferrably cheap)
F, type 5 = shifty
Bonus: can skate well

D, type 1 = star shooter
D, type 2 = tall or heavy
D, type 3 = good skater

G, type 1 = tall
G, type 2 = good makeup


Collect 'em all
Pay high for the missing pieces
Pure profit :sarcasm:
 
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OrrNumber4

OrrNumber4

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matt trick said:
I agree with you SJ needs more elite talent- probably two additional Eklund level prospects, but three would be ideal. Above all they need a franchise center or D-man, and a Eklund caliber prospect at the other spot. I wanted the team to tank, so they could get one of those players this draft.

That said, beyond those two players, they need lots of middle of the line-up guys. I feel decently confident that Merkley, Kniazev, Bordeleau, Robbins, Coe, Wiesblatt, and boom/busts like Gushchin will be able to fill in 3-4 top 4/top 6 spots in the line-up, and some of the others will help add other depth.

Similarly, the additions of Barbanov, Balcers, and Dahlen for nothing are positive in that they are adequate top 9 guys for free.

It wasn’t that long ago guys like Sgarbossa were among our top 5 prospects.
Click to expand...

Sgarbossa was considered a top prospect because he absolutely torched the OHL. It just goes to show you how that doesn't mean very much.
 
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