Prospect Info: Sharks Prospect Info & Discussion Thread XVIII

[jarr92]

This kind of blanket statement is an unfair assessment of the franchise overall and ignores the context of draft picks and prospects as currency. However, it is accurate as a critique of the scouting staff because there have been obvious glaring failures. At the same time, again, it's about full team construction, and not just drafting.

For example, Ty Wishart. He was a 1st round pick, didn't turn into anything, but was part of the trade for Dan Boyle. Does that make him a failed prospect, absolutely, but it doesn't mean he was valueless, and the pick was therefore a failure.

Mirco Mueller is almost as much of a bust as Ty Wishart, but one of the picks acquired for him from NJ was used to draft Mario Ferraro. Failed pick in Mueller, recouped asset because New Jersey inexplicably traded for him.

Julius Bergmann was used to acquire Mike Hoffman from Ottawa. Busted 2nd round pick, used to recoup assets.

The Sharks drafted Linus Karlsson who looks like a bust and they turned him into Jonathan Dahlen, who has been very good this season. Obviously he has to continue his level of play, but if we just look at the Karlsson pick it looks really bad.

O'Regan was dealt for Evander Kane.

Kuraly for Jones. etc. etc.

This isn't to say your comment doesn't have merit, because there are some ugly misses, but it's not that cut and dry.

What more needs to be said? Clearly they've had a successful strategy over the years, minus a cup obviously.

 

[hohosaregood]

This kind of blanket statement is an unfair assessment of the franchise overall and ignores the context of draft picks and prospects as currency. However, it is accurate as a critique of the scouting staff because there have been obvious glaring failures. At the same time, again, it's about full team construction, and not just drafting.

For example, Ty Wishart. He was a 1st round pick, didn't turn into anything, but was part of the trade for Dan Boyle. Does that make him a failed prospect, absolutely, but it doesn't mean he was valueless, and the pick was therefore a failure.

Mirco Mueller is almost as much of a bust as Ty Wishart, but one of the picks acquired for him from NJ was used to draft Mario Ferraro. Failed pick in Mueller, recouped asset because New Jersey inexplicably traded for him.

Julius Bergmann was used to acquire Mike Hoffman from Ottawa. Busted 2nd round pick, used to recoup assets.

The Sharks drafted Linus Karlsson who looks like a bust and they turned him into Jonathan Dahlen, who has been very good this season. Obviously he has to continue his level of play, but if we just look at the Karlsson pick it looks really bad.

O'Regan was dealt for Evander Kane.

Kuraly for Jones. etc. etc.

This isn't to say your comment doesn't have merit, because there are some ugly misses, but it's not that cut and dry.

This is ultimately the greatest value of a good prospect system is: good trade currency. I don't necessarily think everybody is going to pan out but the quality of the last couple drafts have been some of the better ones in our team's history. And if those guys can make the next step or threaten to do so then you suddenly have a lot of trade currency in the expendable prospects/players. One of DW's best attributes has always been converting the low value in the depth chart into better value players from elsewhere via trade. So I'm looking forward to some crazy trades in a couple years.

 

[hohosaregood]

 

[Hodge]

Curious, which of the the current prospects do you think will turn into solid (let's say top 9 FWD / top 6D / G backup) NHL regulars?

Eklund probably will. Nobody else seems likely on an individual basis but odds are 1-2 of them will get there in the end. People will say I'm being overly negative but this is the reality for players drafted outside the top 10.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Eklund probably will. Nobody else seems likely on an individual basis but odds are 1-2 of them will get there in the end. People will say I'm being overly negative but this is the reality for players drafted outside the top 10.

For top-9/top-6D players? No; that isn't. If you are talking about impact players (top line, first-pairing), then yes...in fact odds are probably even lower.

 

[Hodge]

For top-9/top-6D players? No; that isn't. If you are talking about impact players (top line, first-pairing), then yes...in fact odds are probably even lower.

They've been averaging one such player per draft for 15 years now so 2-3 currently in the system seems about right. Maybe they'll find an additional player since they had a lot of picks last year.

As far as actual top of the lineup players go we're probably not seeing another one for a long time.

 

[OrrNumber4]

They've been averaging one such player per draft for 15 years now so 2-3 currently in the system seems about right. Maybe they'll find an additional player since they had a lot of picks last year.

As far as actual top of the lineup players go we're probably not seeing another one for a long time.

They've lacked a lot of picks though. Meier is a top-line talent and Eklund looks like he's better than him.

Let's go through this draft by draft. Top-line players get an A, top-6/top-4 a B, and top-9/top-6 a C.

2006: McGinn (C)
2007: Couture (A-), Bonino(C+), Braun(B)
2008: Wingels (C), Demers (B)
2009
2010: Coyle (B)
2011: Nieto (C), DeMelo (B), Kuraly (C)
2012: Hertl (A-), Tierney (C+)
2013
2014: Labanc (B-)
2015: Meier (A-), Balcers (C)
2016: Gregor (possible C), Blichfeld TBD
2017: Norris (B, possibly C), Ferraro (B), Reedy/Chmelevski TBD

The rest is probably much too early to tell, but early results with Weatherby, Leonard, Hatakka, etc. look promising. That definitely looks like more than one top-9 player per draft...

 

[Hodge]

They've lacked a lot of picks though. Meier is a top-line talent and Eklund looks like he's better than him.

Let's go through this draft by draft. Top-line players get an A, top-6/top-4 a B, and top-9/top-6 a C.

2006: McGinn (C)
2007: Couture (A-), Bonino(C+), Braun(B)
2008: Wingels (C), Demers (B)
2009
2010: Coyle (B)
2011: Nieto (C), DeMelo (B), Kuraly (C)
2012: Hertl (A-), Tierney (C+)
2013
2014: Labanc (B-)
2015: Meier (A-), Balcers (C)
2016: Gregor (possible C), Blichfeld TBD
2017: Norris (B, possibly C), Ferraro (B), Reedy/Chmelevski TBD

The rest is probably much too early to tell, but early results with Weatherby, Leonard, Hatakka, etc. look promising. That definitely looks like more than one top-9 player per draft...

Calling McGinn, Wingels, Nieto and Kuraly top 9 forwards is a stretch. Balcers and Gregor haven't proven anything and Blichfeld, Chmelevski and Leonard are looking like busts.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Calling McGinn, Wingels, Nieto and Kuraly top 9 forwards is a stretch. Balcers and Gregor haven't proven anything and Blichfeld, Chmelevski and Leonard are looking like busts.

Even if that's the case, they're still averaging a top-6 forward/top-4 defenseman every year, with relatively few picks. I'd definitely consider Balcers at least a 3rd liner by now...

 

[Hodge]

Even if that's the case, they're still averaging a top-6 forward/top-4 defenseman every year, with relatively few picks. I'd definitely consider Balcers at least a 3rd liner by now...

Being generous it's about 15% of their picks from 2006-2017 that turned into a top 9 F/top 4 D. So if they have around 25 legit prospects in the system right now we should expect 3 or 4 of them to do the same.

 

[Lebanezer]

Being generous it's about 15% of their picks from 2006-2017 that turned into a top 9 F/top 4 D. So if they have around 25 legit prospects in the system right now we should expect 3 or 4 of them to do the same.

The number of players who become legitimate top 9/top 4 players is not the only way that prospects can have value. You're also ignoring extenuating circumstances that come up for a lot of prospects like Rourke Chartier who had concussion issues, Jeremy Roy blowing out his knees repeatedly, Konrad Abeltshauser developing psychological issues, Noah Rod preferring to stay home in Switzerland than play in America, and Daniil Sobchenko dying in a plane crash. As I said before, if you take context out of the equation, sure things don't look great, but there is so much more going on, and so many more ways to evaluate both the prospects and the franchise overall.

 

[Hodge]

The number of players who become legitimate top 9/top 4 players is not the only way that prospects can have value. You're also ignoring extenuating circumstances that come up for a lot of prospects like Rourke Chartier who had concussion issues, Jeremy Roy blowing out his knees repeatedly, Konrad Abeltshauser developing psychological issues, Noah Rod preferring to stay home in Switzerland than play in America, and Daniil Sobchenko dying in a plane crash. As I said before, if you take context out of the equation, sure things don't look great, but there is so much more going on, and so many more ways to evaluate both the prospects and the franchise overall.

Okay but those extenuating circumstances happen to every team's prospects not just the Sharks. And I'm not disputing that prospects have value in trades just saying people should maybe stop acting like multiple guys drafted late in the same year are all going to help turn the team around someday. It's just completely detached from reality.

 

[Mayo8898]

Bordeleau, Robins and Laroque with an assist
Young with a goal
Coe with a goal and 3 assists

 

[OrrNumber4]

Okay but those extenuating circumstances happen to every team's prospects not just the Sharks. And I'm not disputing that prospects have value in trades just saying people should maybe stop acting like multiple guys drafted late in the same year are all going to help turn the team around someday. It's just completely detached from reality.

I agree that people are too optimistic, but you're too pessimistic.

 

[TEALICIOUS]

They've lacked a lot of picks though. Meier is a top-line talent and Eklund looks like he's better than him.

Let's go through this draft by draft. Top-line players get an A, top-6/top-4 a B, and top-9/top-6 a C.

2006: McGinn (C)
2007: Couture (A-), Bonino(C+), Braun(B)
2008: Wingels (C), Demers (B)
2009
2010: Coyle (B)
2011: Nieto (C), DeMelo (B), Kuraly (C)
2012: Hertl (A-), Tierney (C+)
2013
2014: Labanc (B-)
2015: Meier (A-), Balcers (C)
2016: Gregor (possible C), Blichfeld TBD
2017: Norris (B, possibly C), Ferraro (B), Reedy/Chmelevski TBD

The rest is probably much too early to tell, but early results with Weatherby, Leonard, Hatakka, etc. look promising. That definitely looks like more than one top-9 player per draft...

Great illustration of how the draft is a crap shoot. Since 2007, the most impactful player the sharks have produce is logan couture, justin braun, Tomas Hertl, Kevin Labanc and Timo Meier. The sharks usually in a given draft produce 1, 2 or the max 3 players. So history will tell you if you are an optimistic, this 2020 draft will be the sharks best draft ever. But if you are pessimistic, the most likely outcome sharks will produce no more than 3 the most. Which is not a bad thing at all. Side note; the sharks best draft is 2003 Entry, they drafted Milan Michalek, Steve Bernier, Matt Carle and Joe Pavelski. I wonder what ppl thought on who will make it out of the 2020 draft... In my opinion, I have only Thomas Bordeleau and Ozzy Wiesblatt.

 

[Pavelski2112]

Great illustration of how the draft is a crap shoot. Since 2007, the most impactful player the sharks have produce is logan couture, justin braun, Tomas Hertl, Kevin Labanc and Timo Meier. The sharks usually in a given draft produce 1, 2 or the max 3 players. So history will tell you if you are an optimistic, this 2020 draft will be the sharks best draft ever. But if you are pessimistic, the most likely outcome sharks will produce no more than 3 the most. Which is not a bad thing at all. Side note; the sharks best draft is 2003 Entry, they drafted Milan Michalek, Steve Bernier, Matt Carle and Joe Pavelski. I wonder what ppl thought on who will make it out of the 2020 draft... In my opinion, I have only Thomas Bordeleau and Ozzy Wiesblatt.

The 2003 draft is probably going to go down as the best of all time, so no surprise there.

I think re: DW Jr. vs Tim Burke is that with Burke, you could often recognize when a prospect had absolutely no chance, or was at best going to be a grinding middle-sixer (as Burke liked to pick very often). With DW Jr., we'll of course need more time to fully gauge the pool, but his picks look far more exciting and far less predictable. When he makes a pick, we don't go "Why this guy?".

 

[Patty Ice]

For the amount of hate we gave PDB for playing DeMelo, he turned out ok in the end. He was quite a whipping boy for awhile.

That's nothing new. This fan base has always been like that. There will always be a new whipping boy or two people will dog pile on for the smallest things.

 

[Patty Ice]

Side note; the sharks best draft is 2003 Entry, they drafted Milan Michalek, Steve Bernier, Matt Carle

And with hindsight available players at those spots taken within the next pick or two, that list could be Suter, Parise, and Weber.

 

[Mattb124]

Given the Sharks' history of drafting late due to play-off success, penchant for using draft picks/prospects for trade currency, and the substantial philosophical shift following the transition from Burke to Wilson Jr. (including so many 1st round busts under Burke), I think one needs to take comparative analysis of past drafts with a grain of salt. That isn't to say that the Sharks will start converting picks to NHLers at some unprecedented rate, but I think it is fair to be more encouraged by the potential of the recent draft classes.

 

[PacificOceanPotion]

Given the Sharks' history of drafting late due to play-off success, penchant for using draft picks/prospects for trade currency, and the substantial philosophical shift following the transition from Burke to Wilson Jr. (including so many 1st round busts under Burke), I think one needs to take comparative analysis of past rafts with a grain of salt. That isn't to say that the Sharks will start converting picks to NHLers at some unprecedented rate, but I think it is fair to be more encouraged by the potential of the recent draft classes.

Thank you. There is reason for optimism. Thats the whole point some are making. That's why you draft these guys in the 1st place. You don't go into a draft saying, "I mean, if we HAVE to, I guess we'll just draft this guy. Its not like he's gonna be a guy who helps turn this organization around anyway"

 

[Hodge]

Given the Sharks' history of drafting late due to play-off success, penchant for using draft picks/prospects for trade currency, and the substantial philosophical shift following the transition from Burke to Wilson Jr. (including so many 1st round busts under Burke), I think one needs to take comparative analysis of past rafts with a grain of salt. That isn't to say that the Sharks will start converting picks to NHLers at some unprecedented rate, but I think it is fair to be more encouraged by the potential of the recent draft classes.

Early returns on Junior's drafts aren't promising. Merkley, Kniazev, Leonard, Chmelevski, Hamaliuk and Chekhovich are all starting to look like busts if they're not there already. Norris is the one clear success but let's be honest if they had any idea he was going to develop into the player he is now they wouldn't have included him in the Karlsson trade. Even Ottawa said they projected him as a future 3C at the time of the deal.

Ultimately it doesn't matter who's running the draft the fact of the matter is the Sharks need to draft consistently in the top five for a number of years because that's where the impact players are. DW is not going to be able to pull another Thornton trade out of his ass.

 

[one2gamble]

@Hodge , the only person in that list of players that was supposed not make the NHL is merks and he looked like an NHL player when he was in the NHL.

I might give you Leonard

 

[Hodge]

@Hodge , the only person in that list of players that was supposed not make the NHL is merks and he looked like an NHL player when he was in the NHL.

I might give you Leonard

Just saying his first three drafts are starting to look like they might produce 3 NHLers max which is in line with the Burke years. And one of them is Weatherby who is terrible and could easily go the way of Gambrell over the next few seasons.

 

[Mattb124]

Early returns on Junior's drafts aren't promising. Merkley, Kniazev, Leonard, Chmelevski, Hamaliuk and Chekhovich are all starting to look like busts if they're not there already. Norris is the one clear success but let's be honest if they had any idea he was going to develop into the player he is now they wouldn't have included him in the Karlsson trade. Even Ottawa said they projected him as a future 3C at the time of the deal.

Ultimately it doesn't matter who's running the draft the fact of the matter is the Sharks need to draft consistently in the top five for a number of years because that's where the impact players are. DW is not going to be able to pull another Thornton trade out of his ass.

Funny that you left out Mario Ferraro who was in the same draft class as Norris. I wonder why? Fun fact: he has played more NHL games than any other 2nd round pick from 2017.

One also needs to look at this analysis with the lense that it takes 3-4 years on average for draftees to make the NHL, so there has not been enough time passed to fully evaluate Jr's work.

That said, every player on your "bust" list save for Hamaliuk has played in the NHL which calls into question your use of the word. Not to mention, half the players on your list are late round picks (Chemelevski 6th, Leonard 6th, Checkhovic 7th) that you would expect to bust (31% and 26% chance of playing an NHL game, respectively). To that end, the fact that they were able to get a cup of coffee in the NHL inside that 3-4 year window is more a credit to Jr's drafting than a criticism. Chekhovick is an interesting case study, as even though he is no longer Sharks property he is carving out a nice KHL career for himself.

Weatherby (4th round, 2018) has become an NHL regular. It is looking like another late round pick. Hatakka (6th round, 2019) will have an NHL career as well given his performance to date.

I think there is reason for optimism with the current prospect pool and credit should be given for finding talent in the later rounds of the draft.

 

[Hodge]

Funny that you left out Mario Ferraro who was in the same draft class as Norris. I wonder why? Fun fact: he has played more NHL games than any other 2nd round pick from 2017.

One also needs to look at this analysis with the lense that it takes 3-4 years on average for draftees to make the NHL, so there has not been enough time passed to fully evaluate Jr's work.

That said, every player on your "bust" list save for Hamaliuk has played in the NHL which calls into question your use of the word. Not to mention, half the players on your list are late round picks (Chemelevski 6th, Leonard 6th, Checkhovic 7th) that you would expect to bust (31% and 26% chance of playing an NHL game, respectively). To that end, the fact that they were able to get a cup of coffee in the NHL inside that 3-4 year window is more a credit to Jr's drafting than a criticism. Chekhovick is an interesting case study, as even though he is no longer Sharks property he is carving out a nice KHL career for himself.

Weatherby (4th round, 2018) has become an NHL regular. It is looking like another late round pick. Hatakka (6th round, 2019) will have an NHL career as well given his performance to date.

I think there is reason for optimism with the current prospect pool and credit should be given for finding talent in the later rounds of the draft.

Ferraro was a good pick. He's also been one of the worst defensemen in the NHL this season so I wouldn't call it a home run. He's a solid 4/5 defenseman being given way more responsibility than he's capable of because Doug Wilson has built such a horrible and expensive blueline.

Playing NHL games doesn't necessarily make a pick successful. Petrecki, Goldobin and Mueller all played NHL games too. Leonard and Chmelevski are old enough that if they were going to make it as anything more than replacement level call-ups they would have shown more by now. Merkley is also getting to that point. Chekhovich is gone and isn't even having a great season in the KHL compared to last year. Weatherby and Hatakka are being force fed NHL minutes out of desperation but it's clear based on the eye test and the numbers that they are both better suited for the AHL.

If anything Jr.'s picks have had the "advantage" of the Sharks roster being capped out and lacking any semblance of depth the last three years making it far easier for some of these marginal prospects to get playing time. That doesn't mean they belong in the NHL or will carve out real careers.