Speculation: Sharks future depth

[Sharksrule04]

Sure, except that currently we have two prospects on a similar trajectory as Pavelski in Tierney and Chartier. They both still have a ways to go, but they are both late round picks and are both consistently exceeding expectations. Will they become elite players? Unknown, but the Sharks do seem to have a knack for late round picks. Pavelski is the poster boy, but Wingels and Braun are also two great examples.

In the end, I expect at least one of Hertl, Meier, Tierney, Chartier, Mueller or Roy will end up as a first liner/top pairing. If I was going to take a shot in the dark on each my wild predictions on where they will top out would be:

Hertl: 75 point 1st line center
Meier: 70 point 1st line RW
Tierney: 2nd line center (50p)
Chartier: 2nd line winger (50p)
Mueller: 30 point #2 dman
Roy: 50 point #1 dman

While Tierney was hardly a "late round" pick (2nd rounder) I agree with your statement. I laugh at all these people talking about lack of "elite" prospects. How many elite prospects are there, and how many of those even end up being truly elite?

I think your projections above look solid, however I think Tierney has higher than 50 point ability. In fact I think he could hit 45-50 pts this season.

 

[Juxtaposer]

While I understand obsessing over elite prospects, people need to calm down with the obsession. The Sharks have several elite (Vlasic/Pavs) or near elite (Couture) players who were not top 2-3 picks. Our prospect pool currently has no elite players but we have some very good ones which is better than it was 2-3 years ago. Considering we never pick in the top 5 and rarely ever pick in the top 15 it's not easy to just pluck "elite" talent. Just because we don't have the next Patty Kane or Sidney Crosby doesn't mean our prospects are a joke.

When was the last time a team won the Cup without a Crosby or Kane? There's your answer.

 

[DonskoiDonscored]

when was the last time a team won the cup without a crosby or kane? There's your answer.

2014

 

[hohosaregood]

2014

I like our chances then.

 

[T0uGh C0oki3]

2014

Although it's a while ago, I think the 2011 Bruins deserve to be mentioned too.

 

[Vaasa]

Pavelski is a special, special animal. That's why I have such a problem with this "Next Pavelski" stuff I feel like we're always saying. Pavelski is so damn special and rare.

For context, since the 1995 draft exactly 6 players drafted in the 7th round or later have gotten 400 or more points. That's out of 1221 draft selections made. Those were Zetterberg, Kaberle, Erat, Vrbata, Pavelski, and Ryder (in points order). Obviously, more recent draft picks won't have had the time to get there, but it gives some context.

On a scoring basis (points per game), Zetterberg leads the pack at .94. Pavelski is 2nd at .75. Next best is Erat at .62.

Even if you drop the threshold to 300 points there are only 14. 200 or more points there are only 27.

The only player drafted in the last 5 years (since 2010) who looks like they will hit that milestone is Ondrej Palat. He's the only player drafted since 2010 who has even put up 11 or more points while playing in the NHL.

For further context only 85 players out of that pool of 1221 have played in 250 games or more. 5 of those were drafted by the Sharks. Pavelski, Murray, Mark Smith, Demers, and Braun.

So yeah, Pavelski is a pretty rare beast when you look at his output for his draft round.

 

[Juxtaposer]

2014

Pretty sure Doughty and Kopitar qualify. And Chara.

 

[Helistin]

Pretty sure Doughty and Kopitar qualify. And Chara.

No , Doughty,Kopitar or Chara don't qualify as Crosby or Kane.
Moving goal posts.
Also Chara and Kopitar weren't top 3 picks that you are so obsessed about. Kopitar was 11th overall and Chara was 3rd rounder.

 

[MardocAgain]

You're right. I'm not saying that it isn't possible that Meier is better than Strome. But it is far more likely that Strome is the superior player. Getting an elite prospect doesn't make them a guarantee, but they have MUCH higher odds of panning out than just a good prospect. It's all in the odds.

There seem to be few total players in each draft perceived as future top line / top pairing superstars. Ekblad was projected to be weaker than what his rookie season showed. Draft scouting seems to focus more on likelihood of being regular top 6 NHL players rather than simply ceiling based. I think the key for rebuilding teams is to acquire many high draft picks to shelter themselves from variance and see which exceed expectations and which regress. In that regard we don't have a deep enough prospect pool to keep up with the likes of Florida or Winnipeg, but we do have a much deeper prospect pool than we have had in over 5 seasons, which is progress and something to be happy about. Maybe things go poorly, maybe we miss the playoffs next season and truly regret giving a 1st for Jones, or maybe we flip some roster players this year for some elite futures and our prospect depth continues to grow. As of now, our cupboard is trending up and I'll deal with next year when it comes.

 

[Juxtaposer]

No , Doughty,Kopitar or Chara don't qualify as Crosby or Kane.
Moving goal posts.
Also Chara and Kopitar weren't top 3 picks that you are so obsessed about. Kopitar was 11th overall and Chara was 3rd rounder.

I'm not talking about top picks, I'm talking about elite players.

Doughty would count though, if I were.

 

[MardocAgain]

I'm not talking about top picks, I'm talking about elite players.

Doughty would count though, if I were.

Yes, but before the Kings got Doughty, Quick, Carter, Richards, Voynov, etc. Kopitar was seen very much in the talent equivalent as Couture. Winning Stanley Cups tends to bring on a lot of exaggerated stories of players. Same thing happened with Bergeron and Krejci.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Yes, but before the Kings got Doughty, Quick, Carter, Richards, Voynov, etc. Kopitar was seen very much in the talent equivalent as Couture. Winning Stanley Cups tends to bring on a lot of exaggerated stories of players. Same thing happened with Bergeron and Krejci.

You do realize that Kopitar was 24 when he first won a Cup, right? He was better at 24 than Couture is right now or will ever be.

Kopitar and Bergeron, along with Thornton, are the three best posession players in the entire league. Krejci, yeah, he's way overrated because of one great Cup run. But Kopitar and Bergeron are absolutely elite even if they don't score like Crosby or Kane.

And again, if you for whatever arbitrary reason don't want to include Kopitar, you can't not include Doughty, who is in my opinion the best defenseman in the league and a former 2nd overall pick.

 

[TheHockeyRant]

The issue isn't that your saying it, it's that you are not only making a prediction, you are predicting something you cannot truly know and then closing the book on it.

As an example:


How do you know we don't? Because I expect if you were to ask the Sharks and their scouts if they have any top-line forwards or top 2 d-men in their system they would have a VERY different opinion than you. You can claim that you are being less biased, and that might be true, but you are also forming your opinion on significantly less information than they are. They likely have hundreds of hours of research into some of those prospects. They've spoken personally to their junior coaches, watched them play live, interviewed them, analyzed all of their fitness results, etc.

The point is you don't see any elite prospects in that group right now, that does not mean there are none.

I don't

That's the point. Nothing is certain
For all we know the Sharks will win the Cup or finish in 30th next year.

Way to argue with someone for the sake of an arguement. Please reply to this and waste more of your time. I'll wait.

 

[MardocAgain]

You do realize that Kopitar was 24 when he first won a Cup, right? He was better at 24 than Couture is right now or will ever be.

Kopitar and Bergeron, along with Thornton, are the three best posession players in the entire league. Krejci, yeah, he's way overrated because of one great Cup run. But Kopitar and Bergeron are absolutely elite even if they don't score like Crosby or Kane.

And again, if you for whatever arbitrary reason don't want to include Kopitar, you can't not include Doughty, who is in my opinion the best defenseman in the league and a former 2nd overall pick.

I fully agree about Doughty, but for every Drew Doughty there is an Eric Johnson. Your argument seems to be the Sharks need a top 3 pick to get a franchise player and yes I agree statistically the majority of franchise players come from top 3 picks, but also statistically speaking you're still less likely to receive a franchise player. I hope that didn't come out too confusing, but tanking is a big price to pay and it guarantees nothing.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

No , Doughty,Kopitar or Chara don't qualify as Crosby or Kane.
Moving goal posts.
Also Chara and Kopitar weren't top 3 picks that you are so obsessed about. Kopitar was 11th overall and Chara was 3rd rounder.

I think they qualify in the sense that they're cornerstone talents. I believe even among elite talents, you can differentiate those that you can build your team around and those that you can't. I think those kinds of talents you can get outside the top five on defense and goaltending. There are plenty of instances of that occurring to make it feasible even though it's still very lucky. It's substantially harder to get a forward of that caliber outside the top five. And while Pavelski is an elite talent, I don't see him as a cornerstone type of guy to build the team around. Thornton is. Marleau isn't. Vlasic isn't. Couture isn't. Can it be done? Yes but you have to cover your bases somewhere. Boston didn't need those types of forwards but they had someone on defense that was and a high level goalie. Chicago did it without high level goaltending with a Norris-caliber d-man and a Hart caliber forward or two. LA did the same but Kopitar is more underrated in the Hart conversation. Doughty is Norris caliber.

The Sharks area of opportunity is on defense and goaltending because you can find those talent levels outside the top five where the Sharks will draft. Goaltending is less important but if you're going to ever pick up that cornerstone defenseman and not have a cornerstone forward going forward after Thornton is done, they're going to need a high quality goalie.

 

[hockeyball]

I don't

That's the point. Nothing is certain
For all we know the Sharks will win the Cup or finish in 30th next year.

Way to argue with someone for the sake of an arguement. Please reply to this and waste more of your time. I'll wait.

Uhm, no.

I argued with the way you presented your argument, which was essentially we 'definitively do not have any prospects that will become elite players', which no one can possibly know. It's fine to argue that we don't have any top-5 picks, or prospects that are currently elite, but to say we don't have any elite prospects period is just not true. That's your opinion, that's fine, but you are making a wild prediction based on limited information and I was pointing that out.

In fact the Sharks have a history of good drafting and finding gems. Even Hertl is a good recent example of that who was picked very late in the 1st round and is widely considered a top young player in the league now.

My argument was perfectly reasonable, the snarkyness is the only waste of time here.

 

[RainbowDash]

And again, if you for whatever arbitrary reason don't want to include Kopitar, you can't not include Doughty, who is in my opinion the best defenseman in the league and a former 2nd overall pick.

I can name 3 defensemen off the top of my head who are better than Doughty right now and were drafted much lower then 3rd overall

Keith
Karlsson
Subban

Theres probably about 3 or 4 other guys who can become better then Doughty given the right opportunity in the coming years.

Want examples of top 3 picked defensemen that completely underwhelm?

Gudbranson
Bogosian

 

[Juxtaposer]

I fully agree about Doughty, but for every Drew Doughty there is an Eric Johnson. Your argument seems to be the Sharks need a top 3 pick to get a franchise player and yes I agree statistically the majority of franchise players come from top 3 picks, but also statistically speaking you're still less likely to receive a franchise player. I hope that didn't come out too confusing, but tanking is a big price to pay and it guarantees nothing.

I can name 3 defensemen off the top of my head who are better than Doughty right now and were drafted much lower then 3rd overall

Keith
Karlsson
Subban

Theres probably about 3 or 4 other guys who can become better then Doughty given the right opportunity in the coming years.

Want examples of top 3 picked defensemen that completely underwhelm?

Gudbranson
Bogosian

Good lord people. For once, I am not arguing about top-3 picks. I'm simply arguing about the necessity of elite players when attempting to win the Stanley Cup.

Also, I said in my opinion. You're perfectly welcome to your own but I would take Doughty over Keith, Karlsson, and Subban any day of the week.

 

[RainbowDash]

Good lord people. For once, I am not arguing about top-3 picks. I'm simply arguing about the necessity of elite players when attempting to win the Stanley Cup.

Also, I said in my opinion. You're perfectly welcome to your own but I would take Doughty over Keith, Karlsson, and Subban any day of the week.

Well, you said that Doughty was a 2nd overall pick as if that has something to do with his elite ability.
Nonetheless, what I said wasn't really aimed at that. What I'm showing is that elite defensemen can be drafted late in the first and even all the way in the 4th round.

You're talking about elite defensemen, but they don't come around very often, either. Sometimes they are often difficult to identify because many of them happen to be average to good defensemen who are drafted in the late 1st or 2nd round and break out into elite talent after 2 or 3 years. Sometimes even tapping into an unknown and unseen ability to provide offense when they appeared to only have defensive acumen.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Well, you said that Doughty was a 2nd overall pick as if that has something to do with his elite ability.
Nonetheless, what I said wasn't really aimed at that. What I'm showing is that elite defensemen can be drafted late in the first and even all the way in the 4th round.

You're talking about elite defensemen, but they don't come around very often, either. Sometimes they are often difficult to identify because many of them happen to be average to good defensemen who are drafted in the late 1st or 2nd round and break out into elite talent after 2 or 3 years. Sometimes even tapping into an unknown and unseen ability to provide offense when they appeared to only have defensive acumen.

I only mentioned Doughty's draft spot because someone else mentioned it.

 

[OrrNumber4]

I think they qualify in the sense that they're cornerstone talents. I believe even among elite talents, you can differentiate those that you can build your team around and those that you can't. I think those kinds of talents you can get outside the top five on defense and goaltending. There are plenty of instances of that occurring to make it feasible even though it's still very lucky. It's substantially harder to get a forward of that caliber outside the top five. And while Pavelski is an elite talent, I don't see him as a cornerstone type of guy to build the team around. Thornton is. Marleau isn't. Vlasic isn't. Couture isn't. Can it be done? Yes but you have to cover your bases somewhere. Boston didn't need those types of forwards but they had someone on defense that was and a high level goalie. Chicago did it without high level goaltending with a Norris-caliber d-man and a Hart caliber forward or two. LA did the same but Kopitar is more underrated in the Hart conversation. Doughty is Norris caliber.

The Sharks area of opportunity is on defense and goaltending because you can find those talent levels outside the top five where the Sharks will draft. Goaltending is less important but if you're going to ever pick up that cornerstone defenseman and not have a cornerstone forward going forward after Thornton is done, they're going to need a high quality goalie.

Good Lord. People, watch out...pigs might be flying.

In all seriousness, I agree with your post. If the Sharks can't get that top forward (and it will be hard outside of the top five), they'll need a cornerstone defenseman and goalie.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Good Lord. People, watch out...pigs might be flying.

In all seriousness, I agree with your post. If the Sharks can't get that top forward (and it will be hard outside of the top five), they'll need a cornerstone defenseman and goalie.

Which actually DW may be able to pull off. I honestly am very neutral to our organizations drafting but DW has shown that he can be aggressive in certain trades and overpay for a piece that he feels is a good fit. Jones for example. I am hoping that he can continue with that trend and land us a cornerstone D-man via a trade.

The issue though (in FA) is that a lot of times the player is flat out just not interested in coming to SJ or DW refuses to sign them to the long term contracts they all seem to be interested in.

 

[Sharksrule04]

When was the last time a team won the Cup without a Crosby or Kane? There's your answer.

Boston

Also in regards to your answer, when was the last time the Sharks drafted #1 overall to get those guys? There's your answer. Kopitar would have been a stronger argument.

 

[T0uGh C0oki3]

Boston

Also in regards to your answer, when was the last time the Sharks drafted #1 overall to get those guys? There's your answer. Kopitar would have been a stronger argument.

Jux said Chara was elite at the time. (Each to his/her own)

 

[OrrNumber4]

Which actually DW may be able to pull off. I honestly am very neutral to our organizations drafting but DW has shown that he can be aggressive in certain trades and overpay for a piece that he feels is a good fit. Jones for example. I am hoping that he can continue with that trend and land us a cornerstone D-man via a trade.

The issue though (in FA) is that a lot of times the player is flat out just not interested in coming to SJ or DW refuses to sign them to the long term contracts they all seem to be interested in.

Perhaps. It is also possible that DW snags one of those high-end forwards via trade...they do tend to move more than franchise defensemen.

But, there are other things to think about. The Sharks have never developed a cornerstone defenseman...they've never even had one. Duncan Keith, PK Subban, and Drew Doughty are better than any defenseman to ever skate for the Sharks. Post-Strelow, they haven't shown they can develop a star goalie, and I believe in the general idea that Strelow was the magic behind their goalie program.